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US EYES CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES
China, Russia rise with counter moves
AMM Shahabuddin
It is not just a pleasant ODI cricket match which is expected to end within its scheduled time frame. But it is a well-planned long drawn countless days of game in which one is always on the look-out to out-wit the other by playing a double-game or double role. Today, America undoubtedly is the most powerful nation, socio-politically as well as militarily and also the richest democracy in the world. Compared to that Russia is now just a 'minnow', standing there like an orphan to find a way-out for its survival, since its great fall and disintegration, thanks to the successful 'operations' by the US Intelligence service CIA. This is considered as the biggest ever success of the CIA in bringing down the 'Red citadel', known as the Soviet Union established up by its founding fathers, Lenin and Stalin in 1917.
Today's Russia is a mere shadow of what once it was as a powerful global rival of the US. However, since its downfall, the US came from behind as a 'friend in need', to help it stand up with regular economic assistance. Since its fall in the '90s, making this gesture as a show piece, the US began to translate its road map to extend its politico-military influence amongst the just emerged Central Asian Muslim oil and mineral rich independent states such as Kazakistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkistan. After completing its mission in Afghanistan and Iraq and capturing their oil resources, America cast its piercing eyes on these central Muslim states, formerly part of the then Soviet Union.
The US's aim was to capture their oil and other natural resources while at the same time establish military bases there to continue its war on terrorism, which already had taken the shape of war on 'Islamic terrorism' as discovered by the US genius George Bush! But it sent a wrong signal to the other camp, as every action has an equally opposite reaction. So while Russia was bleeding, China came up with its own 'road-map' to counter the new US 'colonial move' to dominate over the newly-emerged central Asian States. China became more apprehensive about America's drive towards South and Southeast Asian region, making India a big partner in its 'holy war' against 'evil forces'. The lurking scenario became more clear when the US recently initiated a high-level nuclear agreement with India, raising it overnight to the status of a 'World nuclear power'. But America's honey-mooning with India evident in the sixties when it rushed to help India with arms and ammunitions as well as military aircrafts to fight with China during the Indo-China war in 1962 to settle their border dispute.
SCO's success
So China adopted a new device as a counter to stop grabbing of the Central Asian states by the US. It was highly successful in bringing together all the Central Asian States, later joined by Russia, under a common umbrella, called "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation" (SCO). Later it was joined by Mongolia, Iran, India and Pakistan with 'observers' status. The three day summit of the SCO, which concluded recently in a Russian city, emphasised the need for activating the UN-sponsored NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) to stop spread of nuclear weapons, as desired by the UN. Incidentally, both the US and India had not yet ratified NPT.
In fact, it won't be surprising at all if the Sino-Russia-led Sanghai Cooperation Organisation create some 'tremor' in the American camp by following an anti-US role against its new-found interests in the Central Asian region. And it was quite evident what future shape of things might come up when the SCO, in one of its earlier summits, had asked the US to set a date for its withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan and also from two of its number countries- Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Incidentally, America had recently signed a new agreement with Kyrgyzstan under which the US had been allowed "to ship non-lethal military supplies" through a Kyrgyzstan air-base to Afghanistan, with an increased annual rent for the base to $60 million from the current $17 million. Meanwhile, Uzbek President is reported to have asked America to close its bases in Uzbekistan within two months. Moreover, the summit had also vowed "to step up security cooperation" among its member states in view of the presence of some "outside forces" (guess who) had been trying "to destabilize" Central Asia. This is indeed a direct blow to the US for its suspicious moves in the region. Hence it appears that ice has started melting'. Will America now slow down its 'adventure' in the region in view of the increasing obstacles being created by SCO against the US? And this has come in the backstage of a recent warning given by an expert on central Asia at the Carnegie Endowment that America was "losing ground" in Central Asia.
China threat to India?
But 'management of international relations or 'diplomacy' never stops. It moves or in right earnest to find a way out. Thus both China and India seem to be hobnobbing to establish a bilateral agreement to ensure peace and friendship in the region, with better understanding between the two Asian giants. But there are Indian strategic experts who are not happy at all with the move for Sino-Indian friendship, as according to them, it was a mere "eye-wash" on the part of China, as they believe, "China poses a military threat" to India. This might have further encouraged America to throw its weight on India's side to further boost its rank as a rising Asian giant and a strong bulwark against China.
So where is the end of the story? Who knows who has the last laugh?
The author is a retired
UN official.
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Sri Lanka: Need for restoring
Tamil confidence
Jehan Perera in Colombo
A political solution to Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict that gave rise to a three-decades of war will come after presidential elections, the President Mahinda Rajapaksa has said. "I must get the mandate. After that, the political solution comes," President has told the Indian daily Hindu in an interview.
The President who brought a successful military conclusion to the war is now urged to address the issue of power devolution to the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka. However, the President is faced with a hard time from Sinhala nationalist parties to offer a political solution with significant powers to the minority.
The end of the war has not brought Tamil alienation to an end. This is not surprising because the Tamil people had grievances about their place in Sri Lanka even before the war began. In fact the ground for the war was laid by the failure of successive Sri Lankan governments to address their grievances. The war itself brought to the fore a whole host of new grievances, the worst being the personal vulnerability of their lives and property. The end of the war has significantly reduced this latter vulnerability, but the desire of the Tamil people for a just political solution continues to remain, along with their sense of alienation.
On the other hand, the war ended less than two months ago in military showdown that few anticipated and therefore did not prepare for fully. Putting right problems that arose in the course of the three decades of war, and the period that preceded it, is likely to take several years and not months to resolve. This would require patience that people who are suffering will find it difficult to accept. The country was torn asunder by its internal conflict to which it could not find a peaceful and negotiated solution. The country would necessarily be polarized in the immediate aftermath of the war in addressing the immediate consequences of the war, let alone its roots.
The most controversial issue that has the potential to divide the government, if not the country, is that of a political solution to the ethnic conflict. The standard prescription to this problem has been to find structure of inter-ethnic power sharing through the devolution of power and regional autonomy. The extent to which this should or should not be done has been bitterly divisive. It has given rise to primordial fears that the ancient past can become the future with foreign forces playing a diabolical role. Therefore leaders of government who face elections, with the notable exception of President Chandrika Kumaratunga, have generally sought to postpone giving leadership to such a solution.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa has now announced that the final political solution will only be presented to the people after the next presidential poll, which is not scheduled for another two years. It is therefore clear that a breakthrough to a political solution will not happen any time soon. Certainly it will not happen before the next General Elections which have to be held before April 2010. The government is unlikely to do anything that will open up divisions within the majority Sinhalese electorate prior to these elections. The dangers to the government's own unity have surfaced in the repeated threats of nationalist allies of the government to break ranks if the process of further devolution of powers to the provinces is taken forward.
Other options
In these circumstances the government needs to find other ways in which to demonstrate to the Tamil people its concern for their welfare as citizens of a united and peaceful Sri Lanka. There have been positive signs of such concern including the infrastructure development projects being undertaken in the east of the country and the decision to open up the northern seas for fishing and the northern highway to commercial traffic. It is also likely that infrastructure development currently taking place in the east will be replicated in the north.
The government is also mindful of the need to support those initiatives of civil society groups that are seeking of promote inter-ethnic reconciliation by means of dialogue. However, establishing peace and reconciliation committees in the north and east is not seen as a priority by community leaders in those areas. Their attention is fixed elsewhere, especially on the plight of the 300,000 internally displaced persons in the welfare centres. They are also mindful of the need to address the problems of the thousands who have lost their lives and limbs in the course of the war, and to help their families to cope with the disaster of separation and loss.
Therefore if the government wishes to reconcile the Tamil people to the post-war situation, it needs to address the problem of the internally displaced persons who are confined behind barbed wire fences in the welfare centres. The fact that the entire population of two districts of the country, including well-to-do and educated people, are so detained and guarded by the security forces has been deeply wounding to the larger Tamil population, and not merely to the 300,000 inside the camps. There is no registering of people in a transparent manner. Hence even if people disappear there is no way to trace them. The separation of family members, some of whom are in one camp, while the others are in other camps, is also a very grave concern that needs to be rectified without further delay.
Constructive actions
There are two key reasons that the government has given for its decision to keep the displaced population strictly inside the welfare camps. One is that there are hard core LTTE cadres amongst them who need to be screened out. The other is that the home areas of these people have been heavily mined and needs to be de-mined. The government's position is that both the screening and demining processes are time consuming ones. The argument of some government spokespersons that the situation inside these camps is better than in certain African countries gives these people, their relatives outside, and the general Tamil population little comfort.
The government needs to consider releasing that section of the displaced people who can be considered to be in the low risk category with immediate effect. Even now the government has decided to permit those above the age of 60 to leave the camps.
Nearly all the people in the welfare centres were living in the war zone of the North until May this year. Most of them were living displaced from their homes and with the barest of facilities. They clearly need to have more time to prepare for their Advanced Level examinations. It is possible for the government to arrange for special examinations to be held for them and for other children facing important examinations at a later date. There have been precedents for this practice in the past. Such an action, if coupled with the other measures specified above would do much to restore confidence in the internally displaced persons, and larger population, that the government is committed to the restoration of normalcy and reconciliation and to winning the hearts and minds of its Tamil citizens.
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SHERRY REHMAN TELLS E.U.
Islamabad should be separated from Kabul in global policy making
Special Correspondent
Although she got left out of the new Cabinet on her wish, and even got sacked as information secretary of the Pakistan Peoples Party, giving way to two of President Asif Zardari's close chum, Ms Wahab and Ispahani, former Information Minister Sherry Rehman has never left crusading for Pakistan.
She still retains the speech circuit closely the eventful and crowded engagements of her friend Benazir Bhutto. Now she is in Paris lecturing the European Union countries and acting as respondent from Pakistan at the European Council's Transatlantic Review on foreign policy.
There she delivered a punch line asking Europe to keep Pakistan separate from Afghanistan. 'De-Hyphenated it, she told the Transatlantic Dialogue on
Pakistan in Paris
She also asked the EU to respond to the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan, mush faster than it has done so far.
Sherry also raised the issue of Pakistan's access to the EU and the US markets, both need to open their markets to Pakistan's goods and invest in enhancing civilian capacity in terms of meeting converging strategic goals she said there
Ms Rehman noted that Pakistan has incurred a cumulative loss of $35 billion since 9/11 in fighting terrorism and militancy. As she puts it, "The government needs time, resources and space to overcome multiple challenges on the ground, especially now that the largest humanitarian tragedy has unfolded in Pakistan."
Sherry Rehman was also forthright that Pakistan ought to be de-hyphenated from Afghanistan in international policy-making, saying, "It would be equally useful to look at how Pakistan and India can also resolve their disputes and move on to a dialogue process that actually sets achievable goals and demonstrates flexibility."
She reported good cheer about Pakistan moving towards constitutional reforms internally, but needed to bolster institutions in the security sector as well. "The military may need counterinsurgency equipment and the police needs investments in training as well as enhancements, but the NATO forces in Afghanistan, as well as the US, must focus on securing the Durand line as a border. If Pakistan is paying such a huge cost in fighting terrorism, especially poignant now with the IDPs crisis, then international forces should help ensure that the Taliban commanders and fighters do not escape back and forth across the border, especially with hundreds of illegal entry points unchecked from the Afghan side," said Rehman.
Commenting on conditions to aid, Ms Sherry Rehman said Pakistan was not looking for charity. "However, fulfilling pledges made at global forums is surely considered an international obligation."
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A FORMER FBI DIRECTOR'S ACCOUNT
U.S. officials leaked a false story
blaming Iran
Gareth Porter in Washington
FBI Director Louis Freeh got what he calls in his memoirs "the first truly big break in the case": the arrest in Canada of one of the Saudi Hezbollah members the Saudis accused of being the driver of the getaway car at Khobar Towers.
Hani al-Sayegh, then 28 years old, had arrived in Canada in August 1996 after having left Saudi Arabia, by his own account, in August 1995, for Iran and Syria. The Canadian government charged him with being a terrorist, based on claims by the Saudi regime.
In order to be transferred to the United States without facing deportation to Saudi Arabia, where he was believed to face the death penalty, al-Sayegh had to agreed to a plea bargain under which he would admit to having proposed an attack on U.S. personnel, for which he would have to serve up to 10 years in prison.
In fact, the only thing al-Sayegh had actually admitted to, according to FBI sources, was having proposed an attack on one AWACS plane that had been turned over to the Saudi Air Force - a proposal he said had been rejected. Both before and after being brought to Washington, moreover, Al-Sayegh steadfastly denied any knowledge of the Khobar Towers bombing.
Despite that consistent denial by al-Sayegh, a Washington Post story on Apr. 14, 1997 quoted U.S. and Saudi officials as saying that al-Sayegh had met two years earlier with senior Iranian intelligence officer Brig. Gen. Ahmad Sherifi and that Iran was the "organising force" behind the Khobar bombing. That story, leaked by officials supporting the Saudi version of the Khobar story, cited Canadian intercepts of al-Sayegh's phone conversations in Ottawa before his arrest as allegedly incriminating evidence.
The story leant further credence to the general belief in Washington that Iran had masterminded the bombing, mainly because U.S. intelligence had observed the surveillance of U.S. military and civilian sites in Saudi Arabia by Iranians and their Saudi allies in 1994 and 1995.
What al-Sayegh actually told FBI agents in a series of interviews in Ottawa and Washington, however, contradicted the leaked story, according to sources familiar with those interviews.
Al-Sayegh admitted having carried out the surveillance of one military site other than Khobar for the Iranians, but insisted that it was not to prepare for a possible terrorist bombing but to identify potential targets for Iranian retaliation in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.
His testimony was consistent with what Ambassador Ron Neumann, who was director of the Office for Iran and Iraq in the State Department's Bureau of Near East Affairs from 1991 through 1994, had been saying about the Iranian reconnaissance of U.S. targets.
While most official analysts were ready to believe that Iran was plotting a terrorist attack against the United States, Neumann recalls that he had discerned a pattern in Iranian behaviour: every time U.S.-Iran tensions rose, there was an increase in Iranian reconnaissance of U.S. diplomatic and military faculties.
"The pattern could be taken as hostile but it could equally have been defensive," says Neumann, meaning that the Iranians viewed such reconnaissance of possible U.S. targets as part of their deterrent to a U.S. attack.
Hani al-Sayegh would have been a strange choice for driver of the getaway car at Khobar Towers. A frail man whose frequent asthma attacks repeatedly interrupted his interviews with the FBI, al-Sayegh recounted to investigators he had entered military training with the Iranian IRGC, but had been told by his IRGC handler after one particularly disastrous exercise that his asthma made him unfit for military operations.
FBI veteran Jack Cloonan, who was talking with the agents interviewing al-Sayegh that spring and summer, told al-Sayegh's immigration lawyer, Michael Wildes, that he was convinced al-Sayegh had not participated in the operation, according to notes in the diary Wildes kept on the case.
Hani al-Sayegh continued to deny either that he was involved or the Iranians had anything to do with Khobar, and as a result was deported to Saudi Arabia in 1999 - despite the widespread assumption within the FBI that he would be beheaded on his return.
Freeh had no case against the Iranians and their Saudi allies unless he could get access to the Saudi Shi'a detainees. In the memoir "My FBI", Freeh charged that President Bill Clinton refused to press Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah for access to those prisoners and then asked him for a contribution to the future Clinton presidential library at a meeting at the Hay-Adams Hotel in September 1998.
That account is disputed, however, by numerous Clinton administration officials. Freeh, who was not present, cites only "my sources", strongly suggesting that he got it from the self-interested Prince Bandar.
-Inter Press Service
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ISLAMABAD DIARY
Pakistan in the grip of scandals
Jonaid Iqbal
Pakistan now is in grip of several scandals. Pakistan cricket team losing against Sri Lanka in the first test matches at Gall on Tuesday is very perplexing, causing remorse and sorrow.
The team did well in the first four days with its match firmly in its grip gaining lead over Sri Lanka. But on the final day it suddenly slumped within 41 runs; with seven batsmen, losing seven wickets, and returning to the pavilion in a stream, one after another. As the Sri Lankan captain put it, ''We did not expect such miraculous victory so soon.''
Remember, it was the same team which defeated Sri Lanka and brought home the 20T World Cup trophy home.
Now people are depressed at this unexpected defeat of the Pakistan team in the first test match out of the three they are scheduled to play in Sri Lanka. It is not enough for Captain Yunus Khan to say that the pressure got over the youngsters, because the same youngsters did well in bowling performance in the first and second innings.
It is of course true that Pakistan team is notorious for its unpredictable performances. Soon after they had secured the World Cup under Imran Khan in 1992, the next year they lost to West Indies in the ODI getting paltry 43 runs, the smallest ever score by any world team in the ODI matches. In another World Cup series matches held in England, the team lost to Bangladesh giving it an opportunity to climb to the Test status.
Something fishy is going somewhere. Whether it is loss of cohesiveness or infighting or something more sinister going on, after seven batsmen, including the Captain, Saleem Malik, Yusuf and Akmal, return without making double figures? Was the match jinxed for Pakistan?
There is such a thing called match fixing, for instance, a failing to which even outstanding cricketers like Hankie Crone succumb. At one time match fixing scandals were rampant and captains of India (Azharuddin) and Pakistan (Ansaruddin) were banned for life from playing test cricket.
So what did go wrong? Pakistan Cricket Board Chairman Ijaz Butt is staying over in Lanka to find out. He better do it fast, because the second test at Colombo is just due.
Gift scandal
Another scandal shocking the nation is about the gifts. Huge numbers of precious gifts were pocketed by former President Musharraf and former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. They pocketed jewels, golden swords, wrist watches, and revolvers as gifts worth millions of rupees, without paying to the nation their cost price. According to rules, Prime Ministers and Presidents are allowed to retain the gifts presented to them by royalty and heads of states and governments provided they pay for them. But in cases where the gifts were evaluated the price was fixed at only a nominal price by minions working under them. Could they dare say the real worth of the gifts when the high personage has made his desire to retain the precious gifts? The only joke here is that Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz kept more gifts than President Musharraf. By the way, we read in the newspapers that Musharraf is planning to make a come back via Pakistan Muslim (Q) Party which he helped create to help him rule the country for nine years.
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