M. Shahidul Islam

Bangladesh now stands at a very critical juncture of history amidst gradually-built anti-Indian feelings reaching the extreme point, while the Government's passive, meek and subservient attitudes towards 'Indian wish lists' are making things even worse.
   Not only policies must be changed to save the nation from an impending spasm, the evolving geopolitical snapshots must be viewed from historical perspectives to unearth the plausible reasons of why so much of Indian influence is pervading into our national affairs.
   As Delhi strives desperately to anchor its destiny on geographic hegemony, gaining an upper hand on water resources is the course India is set to pursue to optimize its gains. The Tipaimukh dam construction project is one of such major steps.
   In the ancient world, water despotism was established in the fertile river valleys of Egypt, China, and Mesopotamia. In China, during the so-called Warring- States- Era, the Qin State created the Chengkuo Canal for geopolitical advantage over its local rivals. In Eurasia, successor state hegemonies were established in the Middle East by using the Sea -- successively or simultaneously -- by the Greek, Persian and Ottoman powers.
   Later, Portugal, Spain, France, and Britain established their hegemonic centres around the Atlantic Ocean to shape global history and civilization by controlling geography.
   Yet, despite geography having determined the long and short term objectives of hegemony since time immemorial, collective human spirit managed to overcome subservience and brought end to such dominations of one particular nation or group by the other. The demise of ancient China's Pax Sinica and Europe's Pax Romana are no different than the termination of Pax Britania and Pax Americana in modern times.
   Regionally, the power wielded by the Mongol Empire and Japan's Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere too ended tragically.
   Like human beings, all hegemony is mortal and transient.
   
   Hegemony and subservience
   One of the most discernible symptoms of hegemony is the naked subservience of the sub-cultural entities, or their representatives. It is, therefore, is of little surprise that our Water Resources Minister, Ramesh Chandra Sen, said on July 6 that the 'Tipaimukh Dam will be beneficial for Bangladesh.' Surprising it may not, but it does provoke our angst and makes us more concerned about the nation's present and future.
   Ironically, during the same briefing, the concerned Minister said he did not see the information reportedly handed over to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs by Indian authorities. That too he need not; none knows better than him that it's a fait accompli.
   Power hungry nations do not abide by law, more often than not. For decades, Delhi had pursued a nuclear policy without showing any regard for international conventions relating to the matter. Likewise, defying international laws has become official Indian policies in many fields.
   For example, in a letter on February 1, 2001, (Letter No.2/WCD/2001/DT (PR) Vol.-III) prepared by Indian Water Resource Ministry in response to the final report of the World Commission on Dams (WCD), the Ministry informed the WCD, "The guidelines for development suggested by WCD in the Final report are wholly incompatible with our development imperatives. Having made impressive strides since independence in developing our water resources, India proposes to continue with its programme of dam construction."
   
   Order from without
   That is why we feel disgusted that the sycophancy of Awami League (AL) government's Water Resource Minister Ramesh Sen has dwarfed the puppetry of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, or his cabinet colleagues. Even the fractured Afghan nation and its puppet regime do not dare to vouch for the USA as doggedly as did Bangladesh's Water Resource Minister Sen for India. For politicians, public interest is what matters.
   Interestingly, not only did the Water Resource Minister fail to study the technical papers and information to reach at such a definitive conclusion about the impact of the Tipaimukh Dam on our people, he has also blatantly gathered audacity to pull the heavy Indian cart by saying in public that the Dam will be beneficial for Bangladesh. This proves that our ministers have no qualm left for what in politics is known as 'concern for vote bank.'
   
   Police attack
   It's not also a coincidence that the minister's comments came within hours of a grisly attack on peaceful demonstrators in front of the Indian High Commission. There is intense synchronization of actions in many fronts to render such an assertion invalid. Had that not been the case, why then, in that peaceful student demonstration of July 5, our own police force unleashed one of the most ferocious attacks on them and injured dozens.
   Lest one thinks that was an act to preempt any perceived malign intent of the students against foreign diplomats, it was not.
   The true intent of our police force got exposed when two Indian High Commission officials lurched themselves out of the mission's compound onto the street, called police officials on duty, and ordered them in the Hindi language to disperse the protestors immediately by any means.
   Thus the second phase of the attack started, at the behest of Indian officials, which led to over 100 injuries -- 5 seriously -- and two arrests. Worst still, the concerned judge refused to grant bail to the detainees.
   
   Heightened concerns
   These developments prove few things incontrovertibly while our concerns intensify further due to such occurrences transcending the border of tolerance and civility; both at the diplomatic and human levels.
   Our first concern is about our own Minister speaking for India, not for us. Not an expert of hydrology or seismology by any account - or of any other allied disciplines - the water resource Minister should not make definitive assertion about the Tipaimukh Dam being good for our country; that to, by his own admission, without bothering to study with minute detail the technical data provided by the Indian authorities, let alone after having them examined scrupulously by experts who should have briefed him on the matter in a competent and professional manner before his, so to speak, pronunciation of public support for India.
   Our second concern is about police taking orders from Indian officials. The demonstrators were at safe distance from the diplomatic premise; did not cause any untowardly or embarrassing incidents by throwing stones at the embassy; did not carry any weapons or weapon-like substances to provoke any security alarm. Yet, they were beaten once by our police to affect dispersion, and, a brutal offensive was conducted against them for the second time at the behest of Indian High Commission officials.
   
   Orders from diplomats
   While we must empathize that our police have a responsibility to protect diplomats, their missions and materials - which they have been doing well so far - we must also be mindful that they have no mandate whatsoever to take orders from foreign diplomats.
   In the same vein, our Ministers are oath-bound to protect and preserve our national interests. Yet, defying a myriad of expert opinions -- including opinions from Indian experts -- our own Minister shall not venture into vouching for India; that too without even being familiar first with whatever technical data have reportedly been provided by the Indian Government to our foreign office mandarins.
   Our third concern is about the lack of coordination between various organs of the Government. If the Foreign Ministry had received technical data from the Indian Government on the Tipaimukh project -- which Foreign Minister Dipu Moni claimed to have received over four weeks ago -- why copy of that has not yet reached the Water Resource Ministry and the other concerned segments of the state apparatuses?
   
   Gone wild?
   Now look at things from a different prism which is comparable to a bull entering a china shop. Indian High Commissioner Pinak Ranjan Chakroborty has been behaving in quite an unruly manner in recent weeks.
   On July 3, he had disparagingly termed Bangladeshi water resources specialists as "so-called experts" at a seminar on regional connectivity in which our Foreign Minister ensconced herself on the stage beside the Indian envoy. We wonder what took our Foreign Minister three long weeks to say, "Maybe the Indian High Commissioner crossed the diplomatic limits."
   Before that, while addressing the issue of Bangladesh's concern over the Tipaimukh dam construction, Indian Water Resource Minister said in late May, "After Construction of the dam, we will decide what to do." All these indicate Delhi gives a damn to Bangladesh's concerns.
   
   Choice for people
   Now that we know India would not stop building the Tipaimukh dam unless legal actions are initiated sooner, Dhaka has little time to act. And, coming following the BDR rebellion and the consequent fallout within the national security establishments of the nation, all these dangers are posing like hungry vultures over the sovereignty of our nation.
   That is why our main concern is about the priority of the Government with respect to the issues in hand. A content analysis of various cabinet meetings indicates those priorities being in the spheres of personal agenda, not the national and regional exigencies per se.

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It's useless for Bangladesh

Dr. Abul Hashem

The present Government of Bangladesh has already decided to sign the Asian Highway (AH) network agreement by accepting the routes proposed by India. It is strange that according to the ESCAP-crafted laws Bangladesh cannot even propose any amendment to the AH routes now without signing the agreement first! And not signing will mean that Bangladesh will be left out and the AH will bypass Bangladesh leaving it isolated and causing it to lose in the process the opportunities of trade, investment and service revenues. It is not clear where the AH can go in its westward advance if it bypasses Bangladesh.
   This assertion has been made despite the knowledge that the cost-benefit of the proposed routes does not favour Bangladesh at all. Indeed Bangladesh will not be benefited from the currently proposed routes for the AH is quite clear. One question is whether this route would then serve merely as a transit corridor for India to carry its cargo of men and materials from its one part to another through Bangladesh.
   Bypassing Bangladesh through the Indian "chicken neck" is also improbable. Bangladesh has a bargaining chip here if the member countries of ESCAP are serious about running the AH from east and southeast Asia to the Sub-continent and beyond. India has been asking for an easy passage through Bangladesh.
   
   Cox's Bazar - Myanmar route
   The point here is that AH must serve the country's best interests - and to ensure that an AH passing through Chittagong - Cox's Bazar - Myanmar and beyond is the way. Since its inception in 1959 the perception has always been that the AH will pass through Cox's Bazar - Myanmar and onward east and west. Both AH 1 and AH 2 enter Bangladesh from India through Benapole, Jessore, Banglabandha and Dinajpur, respectively. Both converge on Dhaka and move on to Tamabil, Sylhet. Neither of them fulfil the ESCAP-laid principles that the AH connects the ports, container depots and business centres of participating countries.
   There is no indication how the Nepalese and Bhutanese traffic will move westward along AH if the current route alignments stick. Will they move back westward through Benapole? The AH 2 also allows an easy access of North Indian traffic into Bangladesh and then on to Eastern India. Even then it remains no more than a sub-regional route.
   By merging with both AH 1 at Jessore and AH 2 via Hatikamrul, AH 41 travels to Dhaka and then separates out to move to Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and Teknaf to stop there. There is no indication that this route will move into Myanmar and beyond. The AH 2 also allows an easy access of North Indian traffic into Bangladesh and then on to Eastern India. Even then it remains no more than a sub-regional route.
   The route has been designated as a sub-regional route though it traverses Bangladesh territory only. India, Nepal and Bhutan are potential users. No other country will use this route. Thus Indian desire to use Bangladesh ports becomes easier to fulfil. Conceived fifty years ago, the Asian Highway's 141,000 km route charted out by ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) is hitherto an unfulfilled dream. Peoples from Turkey to Indonesia with Bangladesh and other countries in-between are yet to see AH's construction materialize. The dream of seeing loaded containers and international passenger buses rolling down this route from Shanghai or Singapore, or from Dhaka for that matter, to Istanbul and beyond, may not be fulfilled.
   Some progress regarding the AH has been achieved in recent years in defining the road links on the basis of an agreement among some of the member countries of ESCAP.
   
   Bangladeshi perspective
   In this backdrop I would like to see the prospects and possibilities of the proposed Asian Highway from a Bangladeshi perspective. I take the cue and clues from an interview of Dr. Rahmatullah, ex-Director of the Transport and Communication Division of ESCAP, published in a Dhaka daily on June 19, 2009. He has naturally been a vocal advocate of the AH since he handled the project since 1978 until his retirement in 2000. He has thus been instrumental in defining the road alignments and border crossing points on the basis of consultations with and submissions of individual countries regarding their road stretches to be designated as part of the AH. Until recently Bangladesh refused to sign the route agreement. As a result Bangladesh remains likely to be isolated from the Euro-Asian continent as the route will bypass Bangladesh. The country will thus lose enormous economic benefits from trade, tourism and investments.
   The long haul traffic movement along the AH may remain a distant dream given the complexities that have to be sorted out before traffic can move on. Even if it becomes possible otherwise, Bangladesh's benefits from such long haul road traffic through the routes, as currently proposed, remains very much doubtful.
   
   Wrong track
   The AH was one of the two major regional projects initiated by then ECAFE (Economic Commission for Asia and the Fareast), the other was the Mekong River project. The Trans-Asian Railway project was added to the list later. It may be mentioned here that the Asian Development Bank was also set up under the auspices of ECAFE with the primary focus on providing the financial underpinning to the regional projects like these. The projects however remained stalled due the Indochina war and the path of isolation chosen by Burma's military government since 1962. ESCAP (ECAFE's new name since 1974) revived the projects in the 1980-1990s. The Mekong River project has been successfully implemented to the satisfaction of the riparian countries with financial assistance of bilateral and multilateral donors. By now the AH has advanced a stage; but in this advance Bangladesh has fallen in the wrong track.
   Now let us have a detailed look at the designated three routes through Bangladesh. Both AH 1 and AH 2 enter Bangladesh from India through Benapole, Jessore, Banglabandha and Dinajpur, respectively. Both converge on Dhaka and move on to Tamabil, Sylhet. Neither of them fulfil the ESCAP-laid principles that the AH connects the ports, container depots and business centres of participating countries. The justification for a second entry into Bangladesh through Dinajpur has been to give access to Bhutan and Nepal to AH. However to fulfil the ESCAP-laid requirement that the route originating in any country must connect the capital city of the next country of entry, then Nepal and Bhutan should travel to Delhi and then move on to Bangladesh through the Benapole border. Furthermore, there is no indication how the Nepalese and Bhutanese traffic will move westward along AH if the current route alignments stick. Will they move back westward through Benapole? Is that a viable option for them? If the purpose of AH 2 is to give access to Nepal and Bhutan only then this route is the best candidate for becoming a sub-regional route rather than a part of the arterial AH. The AH 2 however also allows an easy access of North Indian traffic into Bangladesh and then on to Eastern India. Even then it remains no more than a sub-regional route.
   The third route through Bangladesh (AH 41) is shown to originate at Mongla port and moves on to Jessore to meet AH 1 just after the Benapole border crossing and then moves on to Hatikamrul in Kushia to meet AH 2. By merging with both AH 1 at Jessore and AH 2 via Hatikamrul, AH 41 travels to Dhaka and then separates out to move to Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and Teknaf to stop there. India, Nepal and Bhutan are likely users. No other country will use this route. Thus Indian desire to use Bangladesh ports becomes easier to fulfil.
   The two main arterials of the AH thus enter Bangladesh from India in the west and converges on to Tamabil in Sylhet before crossing into the Indian state of Meghalaya on to Assam, Monipur and Nagaland. It can go further to Myanmar, Southeast Asia and China, and can serve as a sub-regional network in that area though its suitability as a continent-wide Asian Highway remains in doubt. Dr. Rahmatullah has made it abundantly clear that the route through Tamabil is unsuitable for the AH. In addition to the 1200km extra distance, he says, "the route passes through a mountainous region through four Indian states through which vehicles can move only slowly as the gradients are steep. Trucks with heavy load will have difficulties in moving, fuel consumption will be huge, making travel costly".
   Tamabil is not suitable for India, Myanmar or Bangladesh or for any country between south and southeast Asia". It is not clear why India will not be benefited since it can easily move its cargo of men and materials through Bangladesh to eastern India, a long held aim of India. It can also move to Southeast Asia from its eastern states if it chooses and finds profitable.
   
   Viable for India
   It is thus clear that the route through Tamabil to cross into Meghalaya, Assam, Monipur, Nagaland to Myanmar is not viable for Bangladesh as for other countries except India, economically (distance and costs), physically (hilly terrain) and security wise ( because of the insurgencies in the region). It is also agreed that the Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Teknaf, Myanmar route is the shortest, most economical and relatively safe not only for Bangladesh but for all countries in the east and west.
   The reason why ESCAP could not consider the Chittagong - Cox's Bazar - Myanmar route as the Asian Highway is that more a 150 km or so road link from Myanmar to the Bangladesh border was totally missing, a 600km road to Yangoon was too narrow and substandard, and above all, Myanmar was not interested in developing this route because of the costs involved.
   
   India's transit corridor
   The question remains: Did ESCAP and ADB as the sponsoring and financing agencies for the project do enough to persuade Myanmar to agree to this route for the greater good of all beneficiaries of the Asian Highway? Most countries will have to upgrade to international standard their roads, ports, bridges and border facilities to make them useable as the AH facilities, and they will need financial assistance to do that from agencies like the ADB.
   That Bangladesh will not be benefited from the currently proposed routes for the AH is quite clear. One question is whether this route would then serve purely as a transit corridor for India to carry its cargo of men and materials from its one part to another through Bangladesh. I believe that the corridor concept is somewhat misplaced in this context. A corridor implies a narrow strip of sovereign territory of a country connecting one part of the country to another part through the territory of another country. To understand the corridor concept we do not have to go very far.
   
   Tinbigha's plight
   Our Tinbigha serves to illustrate. The narrow strip of 178- meter long road provides a passage from Bangladesh's mainland to some Bangladesh enclaves located within the Indian territory. The strip is being used by Bangladeshi people to and from the enclaves subject to Indian control as the sovereignty of the strip still belongs to India. India opens the gates for 12 hours a day (it was 6 hours earlier the gates opening and closing each alternate hour) from 6 am to 6 pm allowing entry and exit for the Bangladeshis living in the enclaves. India had agreed 35 years ago to cede the sovereignty of the road strip to Bangladesh but has not yet done so. So the strip is not a Bangladeshi corridor in the strict sense.
   Bangladesh also will not be required to cede its sovereignty on the Asian Highway roads and the AH cannot, strictly speaking, be a corridor to any another country. It is more appropriate to say however that the AH as it is currently proposed and accepted will be an Indian Highway through Bangladesh, since few other countries, if any, will use it.
   It is not clear whether the present Government will seek to renegotiate the routes and how easy it would be if it does. It is pointed out that ESCAP had made an attempt in 1997-98 to alter the Tamabil - Meghalaya route to Ostgram-Karimganj-Tamu which would have reduced the distance by 200-400 km compared to the route through Tamabil. The attempt failed. The reason for the failure is not stated nor is it clear what role the then Govt of Bangladesh had in that attempt at renegotiation. It may be suspected that the failure was due to Indian opposition. India's opposition is understandable since it has got the best bargain in the Tamabil route.
   The initiative of the previous political govt to establish an outlet through Cox's Bazar Myanmar has apparently fallen through. It has been suggested that even if Bangladesh wants to negotiate the Cox's Bazar- Mynmar route it must have the agreement of Myanmar and India among other countries to initiate a proposal. India is said to be an affected country and hence must be a party to any renegotiation proposal. It is not stated how India becomes an 'affected country' if the route passes through Chittagong-Cox's Bazar- Myanmar.
   
   Fragile argument
   It is easily understandable however that India would not like to lose the advantage it has secured through Tamabil and that India will never agree to any renegotiation. Bangladesh therefore is in a catch twenty-two situation. It must sign the existing agreement for any possible renegotiation. On the other hand, signing will mean allowing largely Indian movements along the three routes running through its territory. The contention that signing the agreement does not automatically mean traffic and transit rights to any other country is rather fragile. In the reality that faces Bangladesh it is impossible for her to refuse transit rights once the road network is identified as the Asian Highway. Bangladesh certainly cannot shut its Benapole or Banglabandha gates as India does in Tinbigha..
   Bangladesh will thus in effect become a grazing ground for India with entries from Banglabandha and Benapole allowing movements to Mongla, Dhaka, Chittagong and most importantly to Sylhet-Tamabil. It will further facilitate India's claim for a connection to Agartala from Akhaura or Feni, which it has already been asking, along with the strengthening of the demand for using the two ports as suits its advantage. Those who advocate Mongla and Chittagong to be turned into sub-regional ports in this manner in the hope of earning a few dollars in transit and service fees forget that slicing the small territory of Bangladesh into so many pieces for the sake those few dollars inflicts serious wounds on its body and tantamount to a negation of its sovereignty. Furthermore, the staggering costs that Bangladesh will have to incur to provide those services must figure in the calculations.
   What option Bangladesh has in the circumstances? Bangladesh can still stay out of the AH. As I said, the AH cannot move westward from Myanmar and eastern India bypassing Bangladesh. Bangladesh's western links are already there through bilateral agreements with immediate neighbours and can expand further if at all SAARC ever becomes operational. Its western entry/exit points will remain open as now or even for through traffic not only in Bangladesh's interests but also in the interest of huge volumes of merchandise trade of our western neighbour with Bangladesh. Bangladesh's trade traffic westward beyond the Indian land mass is likely to remain insignificant in the foreseeable future.
   
   Cox's Bazar - Mynmar option
   The economics of transporting Bangladesh's European trade by land routes is dubious in the presence of existing sea routes with excellent port facilities in Europe. That Bangladesh will remain isolated if it does not enter the AH agreement is simply not true. Bangladesh however should vigorously pursue the Cox's Bazar - Mynmar option in which China and Thailand are also interested even if the route is not accepted as the AH. Unfortunately our relations with Myanmar has somewhat soured since last year pushing the dream of a Bangladesh-Myanmar moitree road into a distant future.
   The writer is a former Section Chief of Economic Research and Policy Analysis, ESCAP.

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WB President: '2009, a dangerous year'

Fazle Rashid in New York

The religious leaders are not usually sucked into debates on mundane matters. But with G8 leaders meeting almost on his doorsteps, Pope Benedict thought it appropriate to open up his mind on the current economic tempest that has devastated and reduced the global economy into rubbles.
   The Pope did not conceal his agony and anguish saying the "pernicious effects of sin are evident" in the current economic system and added forcefully the urgent need of the "redistribution of wealth". He called for return of ethics in the global economy and condemned "the grave deviations and failures" of capitalism.
   The Papal exhortations will not go down well with the G8 leaders whose summit level meeting began last Wednesday in Italian city of L'Aquila. Pope Benedict called for reforms of the United Nations to make it a unified global authority that will allow the less powerful to have a say.
   The true world political authority would have to manage the global economy, revive economies hit by the crisis, avoid any deterioration of the present crisis and the greater imbalances that would result, the Financial Times quoted the Pope as saying.
   Speaking almost in similar vein like the Pope, World Bank president Robert Zoellick and Pascal Lamy, DG of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) sounded grim warning about the global economy. The WB president said 2009 will be a "dangerous year" and WTO DG said "I am convinced the worst is yet to come"
   International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and the World Bank called upon the G8 leaders to make investments in education, in irrigation, in research to find high yielding varieties of seeds and to subsidise the price of fertiliser. The G8 leaders are almost certain to come out with an announcement on policy shift in food aid. The G8 nations will abandon food aid and encourage long term investments in agriculture.
   G8 nations contributions to agriculture fell to $5billion in 2007 from $20 billion in the 80s. Now is not the time for rich countries to start pulling back on economic stimulus and such a move could have devastating consequences for the developing world, the Financial Times quoted Robert Zoellick as saying. There should be no let in the efforts of the G8 nations until such time that the global economy stabilises.
   The WTO has in a forecast said the global trade will shrink by 10 percent this year. Pascal Lamy called for completing the Doha round of talks. He said protectionism is growing despite solemn pledges made by G8 leaders not to apply any kind of barriers on global trades. Gordon Brown, British Prime Minister "took a gloom laden message to the G8 summit" saying the fledging recovery of the global economy is in peril.
   The Obama administration misread the economy at the start of this year and did not realise how bad it was the US vice-president Joe Biden has said.

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Sadeq Khan

In a question and answer session of the National Assembly on July 7, Abdul Mannan Khan, State Minister for Housing and Public Works informed the House that the government is working to provide residential accommodation for all citizens within 2015 in line with election pledges of the Awami League-led grand alliance.
   There was no Opposition presence in the parliament, and no supplementary question was raised as to what actual steps have been taken by the government to fulfil that wish, or whether the government means only to encourage people's own initiative to build a roof over their heads, leading to more city slums in underdeveloped parks, railway ramps and roadsides, and more rural slums spreading from coastal embankments to boat people's clusters clinging to jammed river ghats and secluded riversides.
   Our footpath population is not as high as it was in early seventies, and vulnerable group citizens in towns and villages manage to poach and move from one house-under-construction to another, or find verandas of unguarded office-buildings to occupy until eviction, or to gather golpata and build a shelter for the family. But that is not housing. No one asked if there was a master plan under preparation to provide minimum living accommodation for the present or projected size of the population of Bangladesh and what modification of urban development policy is being envisaged for that purpose.
   Are we going to simply grab the land of the poor, develop them into pretty townships, and carry out fake lotteries to distribute the built-in space among the privileged? Newspapers report that cyclone-proof "model houses" promised to be built as gift by the-then Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to select villages devastated by Cyclone Sidr never materialised beyond the propaganda spell (Only Saudi assistance for Sidr victims brought some practical benefit for the country's rehabilitation programme in Sidr-hit coastal belt).
   
   Security Act-2009
   The six month old government of Sheikh Hasina has so far been tall on words and short in action. It is therefore not surprising that so well-meaning a statement the above reiteration of the ruling alliance's commitment by the State Minister for Housing and Works, to provide proper residential accommodation for all citizens within six years, obtained only a passing mention in newspaper reports covering parliamentary proceedings. What obtained lead coverage and big headlines was the cabinet decision to enact a law entitled 'Father of the Nation's Family Members' Security Act-2009'. The Act has been drafted to ensure lifelong and foolproof security as well as allotment of residences to the two surviving members of Mujib family - Hasina and Rehana, as appropriate for 'very important persons' under the Special Security Force Ordinance-1986. The weekly cabinet meeting, held at cabinet division with prime minister Sheikh Hasina in the chair, gave approval to the draft law on July 6.
   The result was an uproar from the Opposition outside the parliament that its members were boycotting. Leaders of Bangladesh Nationalist Party condemned the government for approving the proposed Bangabandhu's Family Members' Security Act. Their position is that all the people of the country are equal in the eyes of law. Security Act approved by the cabinet to ensure only Bangabandhu's family members' safety can not be accepted by the countrymen. Moreover, it is abuse of state power. BNP Standing Committee member Lieutenant General (Retd) Mahbubur Rahman said that safety for all should be ensured by the government as country's law and order situation has significantly deteriorated. Despite frequent calls, for Khaleda Zia's safety, the government did not do anything to ensure proper security of the opposition leader in the parliament. The government cannot enact security for only Bangabandhu's family members. BNP Chairperson's Adviser, Brig (retd.) ASM Hannan Shah said that approval of the Security Act for only Bangabandhu's family members is totally violation of the Constitution as it was discriminatory. Public safety is a civic right. Besides, Sheikh Hasina has already been enjoying special security as a Prime Minister for holding high public office.
   BNP leader Barrister Moudud Ahmed said the government's initiative to enact the Father of the Nation's Family Members Security Act is to create a new issue to divert people's attention from its failure to resolve the country's numerous problems. "I don't find any good reason why the initiative has been taken to enact a law like this at this stage when the Prime Minister and her family members, including her sister, are enjoying every possible security under the existing law."
   A bout of usual blame game of mutual recrimination followed.
   
   Moudud keep quiet: Matia
   Agriculture minister Matia Chowdhury said that the government authorities would allocate residences to Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana on a permanent basis as per their choice. Several attempts were made during the BNP-led alliance government's regime to kill Sheikh Hasina. Militant outfits have also threatened to kill them [Hasina and her younger sister Rehana] several times. That is why they need security. The leader of the opposition and chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, has been getting all the facilities and privileges she is entitled to. Former law minister Moudud Ahmed should keep quiet, as he himself had grabbed other people's houses through fraudulence. The previous Awami League-led government enacted a similar law on June 21, 2001, which was repealed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led alliance government after it assumed power the same year.
   State Minister for Housing and Works, Abdul Mannan Khan, said the government would take security experts' opinion to allocate suitable house/s for Hasina & Rehana. "As it is the responsibility of the government to ensure security for every citizen, the authorities should take all security measures for the family members of the father of the nation."
   Vast numbers of underprivileged nationals of Bangladesh may not be gratified by that statement. But more than the question of insecurity in living conditions, ordinary citizens are deeply troubled by steep deterioration of law and order situation and resulting insecurity of their lives and properties. The callous government is virtually running without an effective Home Ministry to oversee law and order.
   
   In a limbo
   State minister Tanjim Ahmed Sohel Taj left for the United States on June 9 on a month-long leave to be with his family. Prior to his departure, he had reportedly tendered his resignation which was not accepted by the prime minister.
   Home minister Sahara Khatun has been in Singapore since July 2 for treatment. She suffered injures in the waist after she fell down in the bathroom of her official residence. Doctors in Singapore said Sahara would take time for recovery. The state minister was yet to notify the date of his return from USA. The home ministry, which usually remains busy with meetings and other activities, is now in a state of inertia as most officials and employees in various sections are passing idle time. The secretary is carrying on the routine work with the consent of the prime minister. But it requires the signature of either the minister or the state minister for some administrative approvals. These are being delayed since all the files cannot be sent to the PM's office. Meetings of the law and order committee, National Acid Control Council and the core committee which involves heads of intelligence agencies remain suspended as both Sarah Khatun and Sohel Taj are outside the country.
   
   Smuggling rampant
   Our people inhabiting border districts and our business people are complaining about the lack of surveillance at our land borders with India and Myanmar. Rampant smuggling is harming our producers. Arms and narcotics traffic is threatening national security. After the BDR mutiny, border posts were kept emptied of operational arms and ammunition. There has been complaints from foreign governments who are our partners in prevention of terrorism and violent crimes that our borders lie unprotected. The government remains listless, as if "friendly" Indian BSF may be relied on to protect our borders until we manage to enlist new security forces to replace/reconstitute BDR. What is turning out to be very damaging to both the psychological and physical preparedness for national security is the foot-dragging by the CID on criminal investigation and prosecution of the BDR mutineers. The two other enquiry committees which were only given limited jurisdiction to conduct their investigations submitted their reports and pointed to the need for unmasking possible plotters behind the scene. The criminal investigation is simply adding to the numbers of suspect BDR men to be questioned and taking time to draw up a prosecution case. Questions have arisen whether the prosecutors are intent on characterising the mutiny more as an uprising than a heinous plot, which the other two enquiry reports suggest it was.
   The new BDR Director General Major-Gen. Mainul Islam has called for a quick government decision to put the identified mutineers on trial by court martial. He said that he expected normalcy to return in the paramilitary troops once the trial of the rebellious soldiers was completed to 'de-stigmatised' the 'morally shattered' innocent BDR men. His office recently sent a letter to the government authorities requesting for the trial under Army Act since "the offenders and victims" of the rebellion belong to "disciplined armed forces". Indeed, the longer the BDR investigation drags on, more and more confusion will compound. Our border security and indeed national security will remain vulnerable from institutional paralysis.

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China ripped by ethnic violence

Holiday Report

The ethnic violence in Urumqi, the capital city of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, appears to have been contained.
   Described as the deadliest riot since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the crisis was so severe that President Hu Jintao had to cut short his trip to Italy, where he was to participate in a Group of Eight summit. It was embarrassing for Chinese government specially when the nation is preparing to celebrate the 60th anniversary of Communist rule this October.
   Rioting in the Xinjiang region broke out on July 5 and killed at least 156 people and left 1,000-odd injured. Violence continued for next couple of days despite swarms of paramilitary and riot police enforcing a dragnet that led to the arrest of 1,434 people in the region.
   "The casualty rate and loss from this incident are the most severe in Xinjiang since the establishment of the People's Republic of China," the city's Party chief, Li Zhi, told a press conference.
   Meanwhile, thousands of Chinese troops flooded into this city to separate feuding ethnic groups and a senior Communist Party official vowed to execute those guilty of murder in the rioting in western China.
   Military helicopters buzzed over Xinjiang's regional capital, dropping pamphlets urging people to stay in their homes and stop fighting. Special police from other provinces were called in to patrol the city.
   
   World condemnation
   Meanwhile, many countries and international organizations condemned the deadly crackdown and excessive use of force against Muslim Uighurs, insisting that China must address the root causes for problems in the Muslim-majority Xinjiang region.
   The United Nations, United states, Turkey also lamented the high death toll. "We are deeply concerned over reports of many deaths and injuries from violence in Urumqi in western China," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in a statement
   The OIC Secretary General called upon the Government of China to carry out prompt, effective and transparent investigation of this grave incident and bring those responsible to quick justice and to take all possible measures to prevent its recurrence.
   "The Islamic world is expecting from China, a major and responsible power in the world arena with historical friendly relations with the Muslim world, to deal with the problem of Muslim minority in China in broader perspective that tackles the root-causes of the problem," said the statement.
   China views the vast region of Xinjiang as an invaluable asset because of its crucial strategic location near Central Asia and its large oil and gas reserves. Inhabited by the Turkic-speaking majority Muslim ethnic group, Xinjian is frontier province bordering Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan, Russia and Mongolia.
   On August 4, 2008, just days before the Beijing Olympic Games opened, 17 people were killed and 15 injured in an attack on police by terrorists in Kashgar, Xinjiang. The attack was aimed to sabotage the Beijing Games.

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CRISIS CONTINUES

Nepal heading for President's
or Army rule?

Shamsuddin Ahmed

Crisis is deepening in the Himalayan new republic of Nepal. Political deadlock continues and parliament failed to transact its business since Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda resigned May 4 in a row over sacking of the Army Chief Katuwal. Finding the internal conflicts in 22-party new alliance led by Madhav Kumar Nepal and the weaknesses of his government, Prachanda has declared that his United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) will return to power within a few week.
   Madhav K Nepal was defeated in two seats he contested in the last year's general election, yet he was chosen as a consensus candidate to become the new Prime Minister with the hope of overcoming the crisis.
   Elderly Nepal Congress Party leader Girija Prasad Koirala smelt rat in Prachanda's move. He warned the nation that if any 'incident' occurs anytime now in the country, Prachanda would be held responsible. Though he did not elaborate, political analysts said, Koirala hinted at possible declaration of President's rule with the help of the Army.
   
   Army rule?
   Meanwhile, Army Chief Katuwal met President Ram Baran Yadav, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar and GP Koirala several times last week. Apparently they discussed political situation in view of Parachanda's declaration. Newspapers speculated that they discussed the prospects of President's rule as signs of resolving the political deadlock is slim. However, a section of media has speculated that Katuwal seems to have sold the idea of an army takeover. It is believed that he argued that the Maoists' danger is imminent.
   Prachanda claimed that 90 percent of members of parliament are communist. Analysts say, with his strength in parliament and on the street, Prachanda is all set to capture the state power.
   The Young Communist League, the striking arm of the Maoists, is getting increasingly restive and has been calling upon the party leadership to start the third phase of people's revolution. Maoist PLA commander of 6th division Mahendra Sahi was reported on July 5 as saying that if the government delays integration of their combatants into the Army immediately, they may revolt. He said there can be no peace with two Armies - the National Army and People's Liberation Army. Indications received from the Maoists were loud and clear: they were ready to confront the army.
   
   Army alerted
   Likewise, the Army Chief Katuwal has also alerted all the six cantonments. In a circular issued to the cantonments he has asked the GOCs to keep special vigil on the activities of the Maoists, especially 19,000 combatants of PLA now confined in the cantonments under UN supervision and cadres of Young Communist League. It said the security situation of the country could become more challenging in view of declaration by Maoist chief Prachanda returning to power within weeks without elaborating how.
   An unnamed retired General who maintains close liaison with the Army establishment has reportedly said about the strong feeling of the Army that under the given context New Delhi will come on board for anti-Maoist operation. The Army chief thinks it is the right time for military offensive against the Maoists. India will not, as in the past, provide sanctuaries to the fleeing Maoists. Times of India last week noted that the Indian army is 'worried' at the prospect of Maosisation of Nepal's army and the depth of Chinese strategic inroads into Nepal. Kathmandu under Maoists rule would give Nepal-China a strategic footing against India.
   Political analyst Abhi Subedi viewed danger is imminent if the major political players failed to mend their ways and ready to sacrifice narrow party interests. Political mess is getting out of hands of politicians. President Yadav, a Congress leader known as a friend of India, has been maintaining conspicuous silence about the impending danger.
   
   Katuwal to retire?
   Columnist Akhilesh Upaddya wrote on July 7 that the danger is far from over. He however hoped that the high level coordination committee that includes Maoist chief Prachanda, Congress Party president Koirala and UML president Khanal will provide checks and balance to shift the politics to rightful direction reclaiming the lost middle path. They should insist on Army Chief Katuwal's retirement from service due on September 10. Under normal practice the Army Chief should avoid functioning one month ahead of retirement when he is go round the cantonments to have the last call with the rank and file.

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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT

Warren Buffett

K. Z. Islam

In 2008 Warren Buffett became the richest man in the world dethroning Bill Gates, worth $62 billion according to Forbes and $58 billion according to Yahoo. Bill Gates had been No. 1 on the Forbes list for 13 consecutive years. At a critical juncture in the 2008 presidential campaign, when Barak Obama was struggling to establish his bona fides in the economic policy, Buffett became a highly visible face at Obama's economic events. After the global meltdown Buffett was the only investor with the cleanest life long record. Buffett's investment style does not fit a mould. His success is grounded in a unique talent set: the rare ability to size up managements and companies, and the capacity to gather and synthesize prodigious amounts of information and then laser in on a business's heart. In June 2006 Warren Buffett pledged 85% of his fortune to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
   Warren Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska about 10 months after the great stock market crash of 1929. After high school, Buffett went to Wharton where he distinguished himself by his social clumsiness and his obnoxiousness in class - after the first week or so, he knew all the business text books by heart and liked to correct professors who misquoted their own books. Failing to get into Harvard Business School, he went to Columbia, took Graham's classes and found his vocation. Benjamin Graham and David Dodd were the authors of Security Analysis which is possibly the most famous investment text book in the world. From then on Graham was Buffet's mentor.
   Buffett settled down in his family town Omaha and operated from there all his life and very appropriately he has been called the "Sage of Omaha" and is noted for his exceptional investment expertise. Starting in 1956, by 1965 his investment group had rapidly grown when he acquired his flagship Berkshire Hathaway (BH), a New England textile maker. By 1984, Berkshire Hathaway had a $1.2 billion stock portfolio. There were only 10 stocks to speak of; the biggest holdings were Exxon, General Food and Time Inc. Overall the book value BH was just crossing $3 billion mark. Buffett owned more than a third of it. He was a billionaire.
   He had arrived in Forbes's billionaire list - one of only 14 in 1985. This opened the floodgates of new opportunities. The buy out boom, the infamous 'Decade of Greed' was at its Gilded Age peak. By 1987 Buffett was a two billionaire. By 1998 BH's net worth was $57 billion. Buffett's own wealth according to Forbes, ballooned to $36 billion solidly in second place behind his good friend Bill Gates. There were nearly 48,000 people employed in BH companies up 9,500 over previous year, mostly due to acquisitions. Such growth, Buffett lamented, was causing 'corporate bloat' in Omaha. 'World Headquarters', as Buffett liked to call it, had 12.8 people up from 12 in 1997. The '0.8' went to an accountant working 4 days a week.
   2001 was a terrible year and was first time that BH showed a loss. But Buffett always did well in downturns and his 2002 performance was superb. As the market continued to stagger, Buffett was snapping up company's right and left. At BH's 2007 annual meeting he told the shareholders that they owned 76 companies with 233,000 employees. The big earners, both in revenues and value came from insurance operations, but they were also a powerful utility sector. The book value of BH had grown to $120 billion.
   Berkshire Hathaway had a difficult year in 2008, its per share book value dropping by 9.6%, its biggest ever. The book value reduction was driven entirely by 2 items. The first cover and the biggest, was the fall in unrealized appreciation of BH investment portfolio - the favourite BH stocks like Coca-Cola and American Express were hit hard in the market. The second source of book value loss was a net $14.4 billion loss in derivatives. What in the world was Warren Buffett the scourge of derivatives as 'financial weapons of mass destruction', doing with positions that effect earning that much. BH has entered into options contract with institutional stock holders to limit their losses against specific stock indexes. Contracts are written with reference to Standard and Poor 500 in the US and to comparable indexes in London, Europe and Japan. BH had been paid $4.7 billion upfront to guarantee some $37 billion in portfolios.
   BH has survived the global meltdown entirely due to the conservative and erudite policy relating to his portfolio purchases. In early 2009 one rating agency (Fitch) reduced BH's rating from AAA to AA+, citing both the derivative losses and the company's dependency on 79 year old Buffett.

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D.U. VC AREFIN SIDDIQUE SAYS

Students' healthy union activities vital for developing future leadership

Abdur Rahman Khan

Dhaka University, the prime seat of higher education in Bangladesh, has completed its 88 years of existence. The jubilant celebrations of the founding anniversary of the university took place on the campus on July 1 with Vice Chancellor Prof Dr AAMS Arefin Siddique formally inaugurating the day-long festival by flying balloons and cutting a ceremonial cake in the morning. Teachers, students, their present and former students of Dhaka University joined the ceremony.
   The University of Dhaka played a central role in all national movements for democracy and autonomy, including the historic Language Movement of 1952, Education Movement of 1962, Six-Point movement of 1966, mass upsurge against the autocratic rule of Pakistan in 1969 and mass movement leading to the War of Liberation in 1971.
   The university also played an important role to expedite the downfall of autocratic regime in 1990. When the political and democratic rights were banned by the emergency rules during the last two years of army-backed caretaker government, it was Dhaka University teachers and students who dared to come to the street to protest atrocities on the students.
   "It is the University of Dhaka that gave us the national identity and the glory of an independent nation", boasted Prof Dr AAMS Arefin Siddique, Vice Chancellor of the university. Recalling the glorious past of the university, Prof Siddique said the institution has played remarkable roles in the last century in bringing about major changes in the socio-political arenas in Bangladesh, which is a major achievement of this university.
   ''The great Ekushey February is the glorious occasion when the students of Dhaka University shed their blood for our mother tongue on February 21 in 1952, long before the world came forward to recognise February 21 as the International Mother Language Day," proudly said Dr Arefin Siddique in an exclusive interview with the Holiday.
   He said it is true that our academic achievements could have been more but we have to keep in mind that the university witnessed a long period of colonial and autocratic rules, faced massacre during the Liberation War and lost the illustrious sons, the martyred intellectuals, to pave the way for creation of a new country, Bangladesh.
   The VC of DU regretted that the university has got no museum of its own to preserve the glorious its history, brilliant and dedicated services rendered by her teachers and the inspiring leadership of her students who became the future leaders of the nation.
   Very recently, the university has set up a centre for collection of the memories of the Language Movement and handed over the BA (Hons) certificate of language martyr Abul Barkat to his family members.
   The University of Dhaka, established on an area of 600 acres of land in a part of the picturesque Ramna, formally began its journey on the first day of July 1921 opening doors to higher education in this part of the then British India. Sir P J Hartog served as the first vice-chancellor of the university.
   In the first academic year, the total number of students was 877. There were 60 teachers including the distinguished scholars Pundit Harprasad Sastri, F.H. Turner, Dr. Muhammad Shahidullah, Dr Satyendra Nath Bose, G.H. Langley, Haridas Bhattacharya, Ramesh Chandra Majumder, Sir A.F Rahman and Naresh Chandra Sengupta.
   At present, approximately 34,000 students are enrolled in this university and are taught by some 1,600 teachers. With 54 departments, eight institutes, 20 centres for advanced research, 16 residential halls and one international hall, Dhaka University is now one of the leading institutions of higher education in Asia.
   The university is now facing an acute crisis of accommodation and physical facilities affecting the academic programmes. The brilliant boys and girls selected on merit basis are admitted to the university with a high hope and aspiration. The students come from all the districts and remote villages of the country but many of them do not have any close relative to stay with in the capital city. As a result, the freshers get frustrated and are compelled to leave the campus primarily due to accommodation problem, Prof. Arefin Siddiq said. The university also cannot provide residential facilities to the teachers who need a sound environment to carry out their study and research, the VC said.
   Referring to academic standard, Dr Siddique said in terms of course and curriculum, Dhaka University stands at par with any renowned university in the world. "However, we are lagging behind in relation to physical facilities, laboratory facilities and research programmes that require additional financial support", he said adding that Dhaka University teachers doing higher education in science are rated high among the overseas scholars studying in Japanese universities.
   Referring to the need for physical expansion of Dhaka University, Prof. Siddique said the authorities will have to go for setting up a second campus since there is little scope for further expansion on the existing space. The university has got a budgetary allocation of Taka 184 crore for the current fiscal year. Another 25 crore have been committed for development programme.
   In spite of all the limitations, he said, students and teachers have been pushing forward their vision to cope with the digital world by grabbing the information technology and attaining diversified global knowledge and skill, Dr Siddique said.
   "We have created opportunity for acquiring Internet-based knowledge" he said adding that the Teachers Students Centre (TSC) has been brought under internet WiFi connection that allows the students to bring their laptop computers and use it free of cost during their leisure time. The university is also going to expand the Internet service up to residential halls and to cyber café on the campus. It would create opportunity for those who can not afford a personal computer.
   Dhaka University will also have to go for advanced method of teaching and learning online, the VC said adding that the teachers should be ready to provide certain portion of their lecture notes to online students, the library system should be digitized with access on line and the virtual knowledge sources must be catered to advanced students and teachers. Dr Arefin Siddique pointed out that the scope of foreign scholarship for higher studies have squeezed in recent years due to economic crisis in the West. However, the university has entered into MOU with a good number of foreign universities for students and teachers exchange programme.
   Responding to a question about the DUCSU election that remains suspended for long, the Vice Chancellor said that the student organizations are yet to come up with a mutual understanding on the issue due to some psychological barriers. "We do not like to impose anything on this issue which may face opposition from the students organizations", Prof. Arefin Siddique said adding that healthy union activities of the students were essential for developing competent leadership for the future.

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