Can Hasina regime revamp economy?

Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah in New Orleans

"Men are all alike in their promises. It is only in their deeds that they differ."
   -Molière
   Let us accept this for a fact that Bangladesh's economy is inexorably linked with the economy of South Asia, which in turn is closely linked with the world economy. The global economy was booming coming out of the worldwide recession of 2000-2001. For the last six years or so, the global economy was expanding primarily due to expansion in housing boom, which ended abruptly right before the U.S. presidential election giving Senator Obama an edge over Senator McCain.
   In America, the housing price was heading north at low double digit clip due to artificially kept low interest rate to augment borrowing. President George W. Bush declared in the early days of his presidency that he wants to build an "Ownership Society." Therefore, there was a political pressure to keep the borrowing cost to a low level. The bankers not only did comply with the Federal Reserve's policy to keep the interest rate at a historic low level, but they engineered quite a few products to offer loans to those who should not be receiving any mortgage by usual guidelines. These mortgage products are now called the "Subprime Lending." This clever but not sound banking practice did the American economy in, which led to the collapse in financial giants such as Merrill Lynch, AIG, and a few more banks and investment brokerage house.
   The worldwide housing boom was not the only sector that caught fire in the expanding economy throughout the world. There was a hyper inflation in commodity prices too! Whoever follows the CRB index in America from 2000 and on would agree that the price of raw minerals, fossil fuel including natural gas, crude petroleum and agro-commodities such as rice, wheat, corn, soybean, etc., have gone skyward all over the globe. The commodity rich financial markets of Canada, Russia, Australia, etc., did very well in response to hyper inflation in fossil fuel, minerals, and afro-commodities.
   Bangladesh was not immune from this global inflation, which was causing concern among economists. Peoples purchasing capacity could not keep pace with the rising price of food cost. Living in America, the land of plenty, I have seen inflation creeping up in everyday food price in supermarkets. The wage was rising by 2-3% whereas food price was rising by 5-6% every year during the last 6-7 years.
   Many economists in the West blamed the rising price of crude petroleum for this anomaly in the inflationary pressure in foodstuffs. They said that fossil fuel is used in producing fertilizers, running farm machineries, hauling farm products, etc. Since July 2008, the price of crude petroleum has dropped 75% from $145 per barrel to $ 37. However, this drop in the price of crude petroleum has not much effect on the price of everyday food items in grocers' aisles. The price we pay for gasoline at the pump has dropped precipitously from $ 4.00 per gallon to $ 1.45 to reflect the price drop in crude petroleum. I wished the same would have happened in the price of agro-commodities. If this could happen in South Asian nations, then the people there would heave a sigh of relief.
   The caretaker government in Bangladesh ruled for nearly 725-days non-stop; however, they failed miserably to check the price of ordinary foodstuffs. First, the caretaker government blamed unscrupulous middle men or Arotdar for escalating price in staples, vegetables, cooking oil. In many emerging economies, we have seen wage inflation since 2000. While wage inflation was going on to keep the emerging middle class to buy new products such as computers, cell phones, broadband products, the prices of everyday farm products did not move higher and I think it was an anomaly. Since 2005, the prices of farm products were showing some inflationary tendency. In 2006, the inflation in agro-commodities was most visible but by then the motion was set in place for the price of staples to go even higher. All the 'king's men' in Bangladesh could not keep the inflation in check.
   Any economist worth his salt would say that the inflation in foodstuffs could be checked by two ways. One, by reducing the consumption. Second, by overproduction. The first possibility, i.e., reducing the consumption of food items won't work because for obvious reason; however, a campaign to leave no space uncultivated might work to some extent. I would urge the future Agriculture minister of Bangladesh to start a campaign right away to produce more vegetables and staples by bringing more acreage under winter crops and improve farm productivity by growing improved varieties and following scientific methodologies.
   To revamp the moribund economy, the Hasina Administration could start infrastructure development all over the country. Where the money is going to come from? Many would agree that funds are wasted in the government. How about the budget of the military? In Bangladesh the defence department is a sacred cow that nobody could touch. However, the people of Bangladesh would welcome if Hasina government could cut wastes in various branches of the government and channel these funds toward infrastructure and agriculture sectors.
   Lest we forget, America's greatness comes from self sufficiency in food production. Bangladesh should follow this model to boost the farm production by implementing scientific methods that are known today. Overhauling the education system, Bangladesh could also improve the qualitative standard of the high school, college, and university graduates. An emphasis should be placed on mathematics, science, and languages (English in particular).
   Near term, the Hasina Administration won't be able to make a dent in the economy; however, if her administration follows a pro-growth program, then the citizens of Bangladesh would see moderating food prices and an improvement in the general economy, say by 2010.
   The opposition politicians have a role to play in this juncture. They cannot abstain from the parliament; if they have any grievances, they should debate those in the chamber. If the ruling party won't have their voice heard, the option is then to tell the people through the media. Bangladesh's press is independent and powerful; therefore, the opposition should use it as much as possible. Bangladesh is competing with other nations for producing products for the world; thus, it is imperative that no work stoppage be allowed or else the competitive edge will be gone especially in the garment sector.
   In summary, the Hasina Administration won't be able to turn around the economy of the nation right away but if they give preference to infrastructure development, improving agriculture and education, then there is a possibility that the country may cut corner and head for an accelerated economic growth. The target growth rate should be 8-10% and this is lofty goal for sure. But why not aim high?
   Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher
   and columnist.

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Mixed land use for transport
development needed

Dr. Mahabubul Bari

In communities across the nation, there is a growing concern that current development patterns, dominated by "sprawl" -which induces an ever-increasing need to travel and thus construction of more roads - is not in the long-term interest of our cities, existing suburbs, small towns, rural communities, or wilderness areas. It is thus unfortunate that the our city planners including Strategic Transport Project (STP) team selected a growth pole or diverse land use development scenario, which promotes sprawl and the ever-increasing need to travel and to construct new roads. The scenario was selected on the assumption that the development of a number of poles or larger settlements outside Dhaka proper connected by numerous link roads is desirable.
   In the same line, the ongoing initiative for demarcation of Dhaka into different functional units is a matter of serious concern as regards development of a balanced transport system. Creation of more single use functional areas for Dhaka is a recipe for more transport demand and hence increases in congestion. A city as densely populated as Dhaka should consider the advantages of a mixed land use scenario similar to that of "Smart Growth". Smart growth involves mixed land uses, an emphasis on access by proximity rather than through long-distance travel, and therefore encourages the pollution-free modes of walking, biking, and cycle rickshaws. With mixed land use and high density, it is possible to achieve the sizable and diverse population and commercial base needed to support public transit.
   Moreover, the selection of mixed land uses following the lifeline of the urban transport corridor under the Strong Central Spine Scenario will be more consistent with the Land Use Plan of DMDP, which preferred a concentrated and mixed use land deve1opment similar to that of "Smart Growth". In addition, such an approach would ensure provision for adequate open space and natural water retention areas and waterways as an integral part of all urban developments. The development of sustainable and "Smart" growth of a city demands adherence to a number of key features, such as:
   l Development of mixed land use
   l Provision for a variety of transport choices
   l Reduction of the need to travel
   l Creation of walk-friendly environments
   Segregating Dhaka on functional lines by removal of markets, shops, workplaces and schools into designated areas will simply increase demand for long distance travel and thus generate ever more congestion.
   In contrast to disperse land use planning, contemporary sustainable land use planning, popularly known as "Smart Growth", invests time, attention, and resources into restoring community and vitality to centre cities and older suburbs. Even in North America, the emphasis has shifted from land developments which tend to favour sparsely spaced growth poles with huge honeycombs of densely packed road networks to sustainable, mixed land use patterns of "Smart Growth".
   New smart growth is more town-centred, transit- and pedestrian-oriented, and has a greater mix of housing, commercial and retail uses. It also preserves open space and many other environmental amenities. Smart growth supports the integration of mixed land uses into communities in order to achieve better places to live. By putting uses in close proximity to one another, alternatives to driving, such as walking or biking, once again become viable.
   Mixed land use also provides a more diverse and sizable population and commercial base for supporting viable public transit. It can enhance the vitality and perceived security of an area by increasing the number and improving the attitude of people on the street. It helps streets, public spaces and pedestrian-oriented retail to again become places where people meet, attracting pedestrians back onto the street and helping to revitalize community life.
   Mixed land uses can convey substantial fiscal and economic benefits. Commercial uses in close proximity to residential areas are often reflected in higher property values, and therefore help raise local tax receipts. Businesses recognise the benefits associated with areas that attract more people, as there is increased economic activity when there are more people in an area to shop. In today's service economy, communities find that by mixing land uses, they make their neighbourhoods attractive to workers who increasingly balance quality of life criteria with salary to determine where they will settle. Smart growth provides a means for communities to alter the planning context which currently renders mixed land uses illegal in most of the country. The Smart Growth Network recognises the following smart growth principles:
   l Create a range of housing opportunities and choices;
   l Create walk-friendly neighbourhoods;
   l Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration;
   l Foster distinctive, attractive places with a strong sense of place;
   l Make development decisions predictable, fair and cost-effective;
   l Mix land uses;
   l Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty and critical environmental areas;
   l Provide a variety of transportation choices;
   l Strengthen and direct development towards existing communities;
   l Take advantage of compact building design
   As seen in the STP report, both the Growth pole/Satellite Community Scenario and Dispersed Settlements Scenario need almost twice the amount of link connectors/roads in comparison to the Strong Central Spine Scenario. The additional requirements of connectors or roads result simply because of the selection of an inappropriate Growth Poles/ Satellite Community Scenario.• All successful mega cities like Tokyo, Singapore, and London are integrated, with undivided geographical areas, not a collection of small growth poles connected by numerous road or link connectors. Even if mixed use and high density development is encouraged within the poles and public transit is preferred to connect these poles, the development of numerous poles would inevitably give rise to the need for long distance travel, which is contrary to the basic philosophy of "Smart Growth", which discourages artificial creation of the need for additional travel.
   The selection of the Growth Pole/Satellite Community land use policy as the basis for land use transport development is likely to encourage the development of numerous small townships within a loose boundary of the mega city, which in turn requires the development of a large number of pole connectors, as demonstrated by the STP report. The creation of numerous connectors, be they roads or public transit links, is not desirable from the view of the fundamental transport policy objective, which seeks to minimise the need to travel. It is therefore clearly evident that the strong Central Spine land use policy conforms more favourably to the objectives for the development of sustainable transport and "Smart Growth".
   Thus, the Growth Pole Scenario is not consistent with the sustainable and "Smart Growth" land use scenarios, as it encourages sparsely-spaced centres of developments, favours long distance trips as opposed to short trips, advocates more road buildings, and discourages creation of liveable and walk-friendly neighbourhoods. Moreover, it is not only economically less efficient but inherently favours the urban elite and car owners while ignoring the travel needs of the poor and vulnerable sections of the society.
   The STP-selected Growth Pole scenario is not consistent with the land use plan of DMDP, which preferred a concentrated and mixed-use land development. Moreover, it will require building of a significantly higher number of roads in comparison to that of Scenario 1:
   Urban Corridor - Strong Central Spine Scenario and DMDP, as illustrated in the STP report. It would appear that STP tends to favour major artificial growth of the city along the East-West direction by massive expansion of road networks. This will not only discourage mixed and efficient land use planning, but will also encourage long-distance car trips. It is therefore evident that the Growth Pole scenario is not consistent with sustainable and efficient land use planning and should not be the basis for integrated land use and transport planning for a mega city like Dhaka.
   In an effort to contain the growth of the city, the STP team suggested creation of a "greenbelt", a ring of land in which development is restricted. It is no doubt an interesting concept. However, the effectiveness of such an approach to contain the growth of Dhaka City remains questionable. Greenbelts have proven ineffective in most cases at containing growth, which simply continues on the other side of the greenbelt. The better approach is to promote mixed land use development and to reduce the need to travel, as an effective means of controlling the growth of the city. More importantly, in order to create a liveable and environmentally friendly city, it is more desirable to spread needed open spaces, parks and play grounds throughout the city within mixed-use neighbourhoods than to concentrate them in one ring around the city.
   Dr. Bari can be reached: barimm@yahoo.com

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Holiday Desk

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who took the oath of office on January 6 (Tuesday) evening, has appointed a 32-member cabinet the same evening. Interestingly, with the notable exception of Ms. Matia Chowdhury, she has dropped all the members of the party's policymaking presidium.
   Of the 32-member cabinet, 24 of them are cabinet ministers while the rest eight will serve as ministers of state.
   Sheikh Hasina has retained for herself the ministries of energy and power, housing and public works, women's affairs, religious affairs, armed forces division and cabinet division.
   She surprised all by appointing Dr. Dipu Moni as the first female Foreign Minister and Advocate Sahara Khatun as the first women Home Minister of the country. Both have become minister for the first time.
   The inclusion of Dilip Barua in the cabinet has also surprised most people as he was never mentioned in the numerous speculative stories in the media - both print and electronics. His Shamyabadi Dal has maintained close connection with Chinese Communist Party and visited Beijing many times.
   Another female leader, Motia Chowdhury, the lone presidium member of the Awami League to have been taken in the cabinet, was made Agriculture Minister again. She made a name for herself as the agriculture minister in the last AL cabinet.
   A woman trade union leader from Khulna Munnujan Sufian was made a state minister for labour.
   Liberation war hero and former Air Vice-Marshal AK Khandker returned to the cabinet as planning minister after nearly 20 years, having served in the same ministry under HM Ershad in the 1980s.
   AMA Muhit a former finance minister under the military autocrat HM Ershad has been appointed to the same post of finance minister.
   Dilip Barua, Chief of pro-Maoist Samyabadi Dal, and a partner of the grand alliance has been appointed a cabinet minister under technocrat quota to head the ministry of industries.
   Law went to Hasina's attorney Barrister Shafiq Ahmed, another technocrat. The third technocrat quota was filled up by AL's science secretary Yafes Osman who was appointed a state minister.
   GM Quader, a Jatiya Party presidium member and younger brother of General HM Ershad, will be civil aviation and tourism minister.
   Former communist leader and an MP from Sylhet, Nurul Islam Nahid has been appointed Education Minsiter.
   Syed Ashraful Islam, son of Syed Nazrul Islam, the war-time acting president of the country, will be the minister for local government, rural development and cooperatives.
   Abul Kalam Azad, a Jamalpur MP, became information minister. Raziuddin Ahmed Razu has been appointed minister for telecommunications.
   Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, father in law of Hasina's daughter Saima Wajed, got two ministries-labour and employment and expatriate welfare.
   Dr. AFM Ruhul Haq has been appointed as the minister of health.
   Lt Col (Rtd) Faruq Khan has been assigned to run the ministry of commerce while Ramesh Chandra Sen got water resources ministry and Abdul Latif Siddiqui, elder brother of Kader Siddiqui, jute and textiles ministry.
   Tanjim Ahmed, better known as Sohel Taj, son of the Mujibnagar government prime minister Tajuddin Ahmed, was made state minister for home.
   Enamul Huq Mustafa Shahid of Habiganj was put in charge of the ministry of social welfare.
   Rezaul Karim Hira got ministry of land, Afsarul Amin ministry of shipping, and Abdul Latif Biswas ministry of fisheries and livestock.
   Dipankar Talukdar, who was a state minister for Chittagong Hill Tract Affairs in the 1996-2001 AL government, returns to the same ministry.
   Other State Ministers are: Hasan Mahmud foreign affairs, Fizar forest and environment, Ahad Ali Sarker youth and sports, Architect Yafes Osman science and ICT.
   Meanwhile, Sheikh Hasina has appointed five advisors with the status of Minister. They are former cabinet Secretary H T Imam, former ERD secretary Dr Moshur Rahman , foremer Vice Chancellor of Jahangirnagar University Dr Alauddin Ahmed, Sheih Hasina's personal physician Dr Syed Modasser Ali and Major Gen. (Rtd) Tareque Ahmed Siddique.

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