BANGLADESH WORST AFFECTED

Climate change threats most
severe in Asia

Chee Yoke Heong

Kutubdia, an island in Bangladesh, is today 20% of what it was a century ago due to erosion caused by stronger and higher tides, cyclones and storm surges that is eating away the islands off Bangladesh's southern coast. The sea has crept almost 15km into the island. Urban populations in river delta cities, such as Kolkata (India), Yangon (Myanmar) and Hai Phong (Vietnam) are already experiencing a high risk of flooding as a result of global warming, and they will be joined by port cities in the region in the coming years, according to a UN-Habitat report.
   A World Vision report pointed out that other urban centres not physically challenged by global warming would also face tremendous challenges, with the possible influx of "environmental refugees" from affected cities.
   These are but a glimpse of what is in store as the global climate changes. Nowhere in the world are as many people affected by climate change as in the Asia and Pacific region with its vast coastlines and expansive land coverage. It is believed that the impacts of climate change over the next two or three decades are likely to reverse much of the socio-economic progress made to date.
   "Climate change impacts will be overwhelmingly severe for Asia," Eric Hall, spokesperson for the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, reportedly told a recent forum in Manila. "They will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and they have the potential to throw countries back into the poverty trap."
   A recently published ADB (Asian Development Bank) study showed that Southeast Asian economies could lose as much as 6.7% of combined gross domestic product (GDP) yearly by 2100, more than twice the global average loss, due to global warming. However, early action on adaptation could cushion these impacts; investments costing as little as 0.2% of GDP on such projects as coastal infrastructure could avoid damage amounting to 1.9% of GDP yearly.
   The impact of climate change varies and more severe for certain regions and countries. The greater frequency of extreme storm events places all of the region's large river basins at increased risk from flooding. In Bangladesh, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) has warned that climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the area, as well as alter the depth and spatial extent of flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins.
   Drylands of the Himalayas, Central and West Asia, and southern India are likely to experience changes in rainfall, raising concerns about agricultural production and food security, according to the ADB. Globally, climatic changes are expected to cause major disruptions in the food system, putting millions at risk of starvation and others becoming climate refugees, forced to abandon their lands and search for food elsewhere in the coming decades.
   The low-lying islands of the Pacific, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean are also highly vulnerable to storms, storm surge, floods, and sea-level rise, and their capacity to respond is often hampered by their isolation and weak infrastructure.
   Water scarcity is predicted to increase as a result of climate change in regions already subject to periodic drought.
   Climate change will cause more intense typhoons, droughts, heat waves, landslides, and other natural hazards in a region which already suffers from more natural disasters than any other in the world. For the last decade, Bangladesh, India, the Philippines, and Viet Nam have topped the list of countries facing serious climate risks, and cumulative losses as a result of natural phenomena have averaged nearly US$20 billion over the same period. Future warming will also cause increasing sea-level rise, warmer ocean temperatures, and rising ocean water acidity, leading to greater coastal erosion and threatening the health of marine ecosystems - a major source of nutrition and livelihood in Asia and the Pacific.
   Coral reefs, meanwhile, could disappear entirely from the Coral Triangle region of the Pacific Ocean by the end of the century, threatening the food supply and livelihoods for about 100 million people, according to a study from World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
   The Coral Triangle comprises the coasts, reefs and seas of the countries of Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Timor Leste. It occupies just 1% of the Earth's surface, but is home to 30% of the world's coral reefs, 76% of reef-building coral species and more than 35% of coral reef fish species. It is also serves as vital spawning grounds for economically important fish such as tuna.
   A major attraction to tourists, the loss of corals will negatively tourism and hence revenue to the local communities.
   But even under the best case scenario, communities in the region can expect to experience dramatic losses of coral, rising sea level, increased storm activity, severe droughts and reduced food availability from coastal fisheries. But effective management of coastal resources would mean the communities would remain reasonably intact and more resilient in the face of such hardships.
   Climate change is also affecting agriculture. The ADB projects rice production in Thailand and Vietnam to drop by half due to water shortages. The IPCC said South Asia might experience a 30% drop in agricultural production by 2050, and the slide is already evident.
   
   Southern Bangladesh  
   In the southern districts in Bangladesh where land is only centimetres higher than the brackish estuarine water, large swathes of agricultural land are becoming arid. Rising water levels in the Bay of Bengal are causing some agricultural land to become more saline, reducing both the quality and quantity of the produce available. Agriculturalist now worry that creeping salinity will engulf more and more land in the low-lying nation. In addition, receding glaziers in the Himalayas could lead to less water in its already drought-prone parts. As agriculture contributes 30% to the country's GDP and employs roughly 63% of the labour force, the impact on livelihoods is immense.
   In the Philippines, heavy rains unleashed by the two back-to back-typhoons in May took a heavy toll on agriculture. The typhoons which were not expected until June caused more than US$27 million in damages to crops and livestock.  According to specialists, climate change will disrupt the planting calendar, affecting the quality of crops and ultimately the economy and therefore, farmers have to learn to adapt to the new seasons, which could mean changing their planting times.
   Global climate change is likely to have wide ranging and mostly adverse effects on human health and will put the lives of millions of people at risk. In the Asia and Pacific region, besides changes in temperatures and a higher frequency of natural disasters like droughts and floods that are likely to increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses, the impact of other climate changes on food and water security would also affect health.
   The fact that 70% of natural disasters between 2004 and 2006 were reported to have occurred in the Asia and the Pacific region, Africa and the Middle East suggest that these regions are highly susceptible to climate change. Efforts are being put in place to face these changes in some countries and while some are showing promise, many face difficulties and challenges.
   
   Indian, Nepalese efforts
   Women face the impacts of climate change particularly hard but they are also among the most resilient in adapting. For example, in southern India, an organization called the Deccan Development Society is helping dalit women, to adapt to climate change by following a system of interspersing crops that do not need extra water, chemical inputs or pesticides for production. This method allows the women to grow as many as 19 types of indigenous crops on arid and degraded lands that they have regenerated.
   In Nepal, one of the South Asian countries directly affected by global warming, especially in mountainous regions which have seen rapid glacier melt, some organizations have implemented small-scale community activities designed to promote sustainable agriculture, alternative energy and biodiversity conservation.
   A number of organisations have already started introducing hazard mapping exercise in mountainous areas to assess livelihood vulnerabilities related to agriculture, flood patterns and erosion in order to build resilience of the most vulnerable communities in the face of climate change.
   But the country is hampered in its ability to effectively adapt to climate change fully due to lack of institutional, scientific and economic resources, according to the IPCC.
   The same problems are also faced by many Pacific, Central and West Asian countries. As members of the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, they are required to formulate national plans to respond to climate change challenges but these plans often do not take off as the institutions required are not well developed coupled with lack of financial resources and technical capacity.
   Developing countries need very substantial help from the richer countries in the form of finance and technology as well as technical capacity for adaptation, and equally important in mitigating, the impacts of climate change beyond traditional development assistance. The UN Climate Change Conference in December that is tasked to fully implement the UNFCCC now, up to and beyond 2012 will be an opportune time for the international community to show their seriousness to address a problem that requires global cooperation.
   - Third World Network Features

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