Nearly two years after the dramatic events of the 11th January 2007 Bangladesh is again at crossroads. The nation is now poised for the parliamentary elections scheduled for the 29th of December. An elected government is expected to step in and resume representative democracy in the country. 1/11 as it is popularly known created in Bangladesh an unprecedented interim government that outlived the constitutionally stipulated tenure of 90 days. Though called a Caretaker Government it substantially assumed the character of a transitional government with a difference. Its promises were varied and many. It assigned to itself the role of a reformist government. It was avowedly determined to cleanse politics, reduce corruption, overhaul public administration, democratize political parties and governmental system, streamline electoral laws, rules and practices and put the economy on an even keel. Now, at the fag end of its tenure one finds that though some of the objectives have been achieved in part or in full others remain unaccomplished.
Thus, with the consent and participation of political parties the government has been able to make electoral laws, rules and procedures more pro-people. Massive, though somewhat impractical anti-corruption drives have, at least, for sometime, given a significant jolt to the allegedly and reputedly corrupt including the high and the mighty.
Right at the inception the government also reconstituted important constitutional bodies such as the Election Commission, the Anti Corruption Commission, the Public Service Commission etc. This resulted in investing these vital organizations with greater neutrality and competence. The work of a local government committee led to the formation of Local Government Commission and prepared the ground for renewal and reinvigoration of the local government system.
In several areas promises could not be fulfilled. Public administration was freed to an extent from the clutch of debilitating politicization but could not be reformed significantly. External and internal factors had disturbing and negative impacts on the economy and the market. Conducting affairs by the book did not help. Global happenings such as the earlier skyrocketing of fuel and food prices and the recent world economic downturn caused great disruptions in the economy. Internal factors including political uncertainty and fear among businessmen occasioned by the less than practical anti-corruption drives further depressed the economy.
The greatest weakness of the transitional order was its non-political nature. Lack of political orientation and inability to grasp and appreciate the undeniable strength of politics and political forces proved to be the ‘Achilles’ hill of the govt. Finally, many of its well intended reform programs appear to have been wrecked on this rock.
In the last leg of its race the interim government mounted a desperate rear-guard action. It mended fences with the major political forces as best as it could. As a result its roaring campaign against corruption seems to have slumped into a whisper. Its resolve to cleanse politics no more remained so resolute.
The outcome is fairly transparent. The ongoing campaigns for the imminent national elections are dominated by the familiar forces which ruled the country’s politics over more than a decade and a half. Alternative forces, despite indirect encouragement, failed to emerge in strength.
The nation is now on its march towards resumption of parliamentary democracy. It is marching behind old flags. The question is will the old flags lead to a new order? Will the experiences of the non-political interregnum and the earlier distorted and tumultuous politics lead to a behavioural change among the leaders and the led? We do not know.
Speculations are rife, assessments and opinions differ but no one can be sure about the outcome of the coming elections. Two opposing camps are locked in a titanic struggle to win decisive popular support. The Mohajote - the grand alliance with the Awami League at the lead and former President Hussain Mohammad Earshad’s Jatiya Party and the 14 party Alliance as partners, is vying with the BNP-Jamat 4 party Jote or alliance for wining the elections. Other players like the Jukto Front led by former President Dr. Badruddoza Chowdhury and Dr. Kamal Hossain are in the wings. There are also notable independent contestants. No one can be certain whether one or the other of the alliances will make a clean sweep. Even if one does the other is not likely to accept such a decisive victory without protests. That will not be good for the health of the nation and its politics.
On the other hand if the election yields mixed results leading to a hung parliament the nation may face greater trouble. Whatever happens the path to the future does not appear to be strewn with roses.
The author, a noted thinker and social scientist, is the founder Chairman, Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB), Editor, quarterly “ASIAN AFFAIRS”.
