Fazle Rashid

Global markets nosedive
   The apprehension that the US economy may lapse into recession sent shivers through global markets inducing bourses from Mumbai to Frankfurt 'into a tailspin' exploding the myth that Europe and Asia would be able to fend for themselves without the US. Investors have become alarmed by the angst about the US economy. Bourses in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul slipped in the opening hours of trading. Investors were hardly assured by President Bush's announcement of an economic package running into $145 billion. It did not convince rest of the world that America will avoid a recession. S. Bernanke, chairman US federal reserve conceded that the condition of the US economy has worsened and suggested cut in the interest rate.
   President Bush, who went on a whirlwind tour of Middle East, has yet to receive a package of recommendations to uplift the economy. The stimulus package will be the centre piece of his last State of the Union address. The problem is more deeply entrenched in anxiety about global economy.
   People are afraid. If the consumers in America stop buying it is going to hurt the global economy. Asia and Europe may face further shocks. There is an old saying in the market that banks lead us into recession and banks lead us out, an analyst said.
   
   US presidential race
   A Bush or a Clinton has lived in the White House since 1989. There is a very strong possibility that the trend will remain intact. Hillary Clinton who leads her contenders both in Democratic and Republican party is likely to become the first female President of the US. A national survey, however, revealed that the pattern is bad and consolidates too much power within a small elite group.
   People paying attention to the 2008 race have no idea what will happen next. The contest keeps defying precedents, an analyst in New York Times wrote. Winners on both parties will emerge on Super Tuesday (Feb 5) when more than 20 states will hold nomination contest This will also be the first presidential contest in 50 years with no incumbent president or vice president in the race. This is also the first time a Woman and an African-American are eyeing at the Oval office
   
   Governments around the world
   Congo's government clinched an agreement with a renegade general to end an insurgency that evicted more than 400,000 people from their homes. Under the agreement the government and mutinous troops will withdraw from their respective positions. UN peacekeepers will create a buffer zone. President Omar al-Bashir president of Sudan now touring Turkey defended the appointment of an Arab Sheikh accused of colluding with the government to suppress a rebel movement in the Darfur that saw more than 200,000 people dead. Bashir described the Skeih as Sudanese who contributed greatly to the stability and security in the region.
   Iran's supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khatemi for the first time differed with President Ahmadinejad in a conflict over energy policy. Khatemi intervened after Ahmedinejad declined to carry out a measure that required the government to supply gas to villages to fight the cold.
   Italy's government struggling to survive met with more reverses after former justice minister withdrew his support from the government. Justice minister Clemente Mastella resigned amid accusation of corruption. The government had one seat majority. Mastella has three members. Clemente Mastella called for fresh elections.
   President Parvez Musharraf in a bid to show that he was still in charge is now touring Europe and will attend World Economic Forum in Davos to seek foreign investments. Pakistan has seen more Jihadist insurgency and the economy is suffering from a severe power and food shortage. There is widespread fear that the coming elections on Feb 18 will be rigged.
   In Thailand, Peoples Power Party, supporting the deposed prime minister Thaskin is poised to take the government. Yongyuth and Samak Sundaravej both Thaskin confidants will be elected as Speaker and the Prime Minister of Thailand.
   $10 million dollar bill: Zimbabwe battered by a hyperinflation would soon issue new notes of the denomination of $1million, $5million, and $10 million. The highest note so far was of the denomination of $750,000. A hamburger costs $15 million. Cash has dried up.
   
   Pope speaks
   Pope Benedict XVI addressed more than 100,000 people in a show of support after protest by scientists led him to cancel a university speech. People gave the Pope a roar of approval as he urged the scientists to be respectful to the opinion of others. Pope asked the scientists to seek the truth and good with an open and responsible mind.
   
   Australian uranium
   Australia's new Labour government has refused to sell uranium to India unless New Delhi signs the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
   Bangladeshi diasporas
   Bangladeshi Diasporas here in New York feel that the drive against corruption has failed to achieve anything good. It is inconsequential that Khaleda Zia, Tariq, Koko, Salauddin Qader Chowdhury, Dr. Musharraf, Falu, Sheikh Hasina, Abdul Jalil, Mohiuddin Khan Alamgir, Salman Rahman have been sent to jail because it has made no difference to the quality of life of the common people. They are buying rice at tk.45 a kg which never happened before. Not a single job has been added. Economy has come to a halt. There is desperation everywhere. They also feel that the voters ID card though a good move will in the ultimate analysis will be a colossal waste. More than 50 per cent of voters will have no place to keep the ID cards in rural areas. It will be no surprise if the people in rural areas lose their ID cards even before using it in the coming elections.
   Meanwhile, The Economist in a piece entitled 'freedom marches backward' saying these have not been the most inspiring of times for democracy and human rights. They named Myanmar, Pakistan, Kenya, Thailand and most of the Latin American countries were democracy and human rights have made a hasty retreat. Bangladesh has also been mentioned. Bangladesh army intervened to halt the alternation of power between two venal incompetent but nonetheless elected political dynasties. Democracy is on the back foot right now. The paper quoted late Winston Churchill as saying rulers who try to govern without democracy eventually discover that none of alternative systems works.

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US President nods Israel military attacks in Gaza

Saleh Al-Naami in Cairo

Although the leader of the rightist opposition in Israel, Benyamin Netanyahu, is known for his coldness and disinclination towards praising others, he departed from character when he gave his impression of his meeting with US President George W Bush at dawn recently in Jerusalem. He expressed surprise over Bush's insistence on putting an end to the "threat" represented by the Iranian nuclear programme-that Israeli strategists say threatens Israel in particular-as well as Bush's insistence that Israel must strike the Palestinian resistance and "break its back".
   "I came out of that meeting more reassured towards Bush's determination to end the Iranian threat, and comfortable with his pledge to provide a cover for any military activity Israel might undertake in Gaza. If matters were left to this president, he would not allow any Palestinian terrorist to remain alive," Netanyahu told Hebrew- language Israeli radio last week.
   Following meetings between Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the two announced harmonious positions on Iran's nuclear programme. The Yediot Aharonot, the most widely circulated Israeli newspaper, revealed that Bush agreed during his meeting with Olmert to coordinate with Israel in directing a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. All Israeli officials who met with Bush stated that he indisputably affirmed that there is no importance to a report issued recently by American domestic intelligence and stating that Iran halted development of its nuclear programme for military purposes in 2003.
   Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's deputy defence minister and officially charged with facing strategic threats, considered the content of Bush's speech given in the United Arab Emirates earlier this month and directed at the Iranian people as evidence that the American administration has "completely adopted the Israeli conception" of confronting the "Iranian threat and other sources of threat in the region, led by Hizbullah and Hamas." With regard to American authorisation for Israel to do as it sees fit with regard to striking the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, this was considered by Israel the most important achievement of Bush's visit.
   Hebrew-language Israeli television noted that Olmert was surprised by the hasty agreement of Bush to Israel waging a wide-scale military campaign against the Gaza Strip though he was informed that it would affect hundreds and even thousands of Palestinian civilians. Those close to Olmert say they breathed a sigh of relief when it became clear that there was no longer any need for the heads of Israeli security and intelligence agencies to explain to Bush the reasons behind waging a wide-scale campaign against Gaza. While Bush asked Olmert to exert efforts to avoid affecting civilians, he departed having placed in Olmert's hands permission to do whatever he pleases, with all that means with regard to providing American diplomatic cover when Israel puts its plan into execution phase.
   Following the granting of American permission to Israel to wage a campaign against the Strip, the Israeli army made some adjustments to its campaign plan. Israeli officials affirmed that Olmert approved the waging of this campaign not only to put an end to security threats that Israel claims come from the Gaza Strip, but also to meet a strategic-political goal of collapsing Gaza's Hamas government. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon affirmed that Israel had informed Bush that the military campaign against Gaza would not only aim to end the firing of rockets on Israeli settlements, but also end smuggling operations between the Gaza Strip and Egypt as well as bringing down Hamas. Were Hamas to fall, say Israeli officials, the Strip would have to be handed over to Palestinian President Abbas, though Abbas has stated his refusal to settle the conflict with Hamas through military means or via foreign parties.
   Some in the Palestinian arena have begun to accuse Abbas, his security agencies and Fatah leaders of cooperating with Israel in preparation for the waging of an Israeli military campaign against Gaza. Ismail Al-Ashqar, head of the Interior and Security Committee in the Palestinian Legislative Council, has drawn attention to the fact that following Bush's visit to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, the number of bombings undertaken by Fatah that target the police of Ismail Haniyeh's government has increased. "It is absolutely clear that these bombings aim to reinstate the appearance of chaos and lack of security with the goal of creating circumstances allowing for a major Israeli action in the Gaza Strip," he told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Unfortunately, Abbas wants to return to Gaza, even if on the back of an Israeli tank."
   Ehab Al-Ghasin, spokesperson of the Ministry of the Interior in Ismail Haniyeh's government, says that there are numerous indicators suggesting that Fatah groups have received orders to intensify their attempts at undercutting stability in the Strip. "The confessions of group members arrested recently show that there were clear instructions made to intensify operations seeking to destroy security," he told the Weekly.
   Yet most commentators in Israel hold that waging a major military campaign against the Strip does not depend on the positions of Bush and Abbas, but rather on Israeli considerations. Eitan Haber, director of the office of former Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, says there is no guarantee that the campaign against the Strip will lead to ending the firing of Qassam rockets. On the contrary, it will lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, which will make Israel solely responsible under international humanitarian law for providing humanitarian services to Palestinians there; this in addition to the hefty price Israel will pay in any war, as confirmed by even optimistic estimations of the Israeli army.
   Yet there is no dispute among observers in the Palestinian arena that President Bush's visit weakened the Palestinian negotiating position with Israel. Olmert announced more than once in the presence of Bush, and following the latter's departure from Tel Aviv that the American administration accepts Israel's position calling for Abbas and Salam Fayyad's government to implement its obligations according to the roadmap before any agreement is reached between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Olmert also reported Bush as placing a crippling stipulation that makes progress in negotiations impossible. He informed his ministers at the beginning of the Israeli government meeting Sunday that Bush had told him that the Palestinian Authority must carry out its obligations under the roadmap in the Gaza Strip as well, even though the Strip is entirely under the control of Hamas.
   There is no disputing that the Palestinian leadership was sorely disappointed by its bet that Bush's visit would end the dispute between it and Olmert's government regarding the construction of settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Within sight and earshot of Bush, Olmert stressed that Israel would continue construction of major settlement conglomerations in the West Bank and in Jerusalem and its surrounds. Bush, meanwhile, called for removal of "settlement points" that settlers have constructed without permission from the Israeli government.
   Yet Palestinian writer and researcher Nehad Al-Sheikh Khalil holds that the most dangerous outcome of Bush's visit lies in Israel's attempt to firmly establish the apartheid it has constructed in the heart of the West Bank as a borderline between it and the West Bank. It has done so through stressing that it is not prepared to seek a solution to the future of settlements within the wall, which total 85 per cent of the settlements in the West Bank. "The weakness of the official Palestinian position and American agreement with nearly everything Israel requests have whetted Olmert's appetite and desire to impose his positions on Palestinian negotiators," Khalil told the Weekly.
   Saeb Erekat, director of the negotiations department in the Palestine Liberation Organisation, was extremely embarrassed when Palestinian journalists insisted on asking him to comment on Bush's statements in the press conference held with Abbas following the end of their meeting in Ramallah. In this meeting, he had clearly understood that Bush's administration does not consider UN resolutions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a reference point governing negotiations. Moreover, Bush stressed that his administration does not intend to place any pressure on Israel.
   Even from a humanitarian perspective, Bush disappointed the Palestinian leadership when he granted legitimacy to the continuation of military checkpoints spread throughout the West Bank and which turn the lives of Palestinians there into an unbearable hell. Bush said that these checkpoints are set up to guarantee that terrorist operations are not carried out in Tel Aviv, and as such has adopted the position of the most extremist ministers in Olmert's government, as even a number of Olmert's ministers have held that many of these checkpoints should be removed.
   Yet even in Israel there are many who consider Bush the most important guarantee for Israel continuing its aggression against the Palestinian people and refusing to commit to the demands of a settlement. On 7 January, the Israeli intellectual Gideon Levy wrote an article in Haaretz newspaper in which he stated that, "there has never been anyone in the White House who granted Israel permission to enact aggression as Bush, who encouraged Israel to wage campaigns of violence and urged it to firmly establish the reality of the occupation." Levy added: "Bush is the president who granted legitimacy to every criminal act, from the expansion of settlements to even ignoring signed agreements, including those that Israel reached with the Palestinian Authority under the sponsorship of the United States, and who participated in firmly establishing the occupation and making it crueller."
   As for Ben Kasbit, top commentator for Maariv newspaper, the second most circulated in Israel, wrote an article on 10 January saying that Bush has caused harm to the entire Middle East and has placed the world in danger. He added, "it's been a long time since the United States has had such a failure of a president as Bush, who has caused such harm to the interests and values of the Western world." He concluded: "What is most dangerous about Bush is that until now he has not understood the extent of the stupidity in the steps that he takes."
   © Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved

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Jehan Perera in Colombo

Sri Lanka's military said on Monday soldiers killed a commander of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam as the army fought on three fronts in the north, the last region where the Tamil Tigers have bases. The LTTE commander was killed in Thendamarachchi, south of Jaffna, , the army said on its web site without giving the person's name. Troops advanced on rebel positions during clashes yesterday in the districts of Mannar, Vavuniya and Welioya, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
   The events of the past three weeks of the New Year have given an indication of the potential for savagery in the intensified war with the LTTE. At Buttala, the hapless victims of the bus bomb that killed 27 and injured over 60 others had been sprayed with gunfire by their attackers. The massacre of civilians in the remote rural countryside of the south evoked memories of earlier phases of the war. In the 1980s and 90s there were many incidents in which civilians had been brutally hacked to death in direct face to face encounters. But then, as now, the larger number of victims would be those caught up in the more impersonal but equally death-dealing conventional warfare where not only the armed combatants are the casualties of artillery firing and air bombing.
   It is likely that more attacks of the kind that took place in Buttala will take place in the days and weeks ahead in different parts of the country and including Colombo. The LTTE's strategy to resist the Sri Lankan military's pincer attack from multiple directions into the northern territory they control in the Wanni can be expected to be two-fold. They will seek to resist the advancing units of the Sri Lankan military forces in conventional battle in order to hold onto the territory that is currently under their control, and which has given them the trappings of a separate state. The casualties in the battles taking place even at this time are believed to be higher than reported.
   The LTTE's strategy outside the Wanni will be likely to take the form of guerilla and terror attacks that would create political and economic problems for the government. The travel advisories issued by five of Sri Lanka's main tourist providing countries came after the escalation of violence in the past three weeks. A fall in tourism would deal another blow to the declining economy. In addition, the erosion of political support to the government due to its inability to protect the general population from the ravages of war can compromise its war effort. There will be political pressures on the government to pull in troops from the battle front to protect civilians elsewhere.
   In these circumstances, the government will need to show continuous progress on the military battle front if it is contain the negative fall out of the costs of war. It is the promise and hope of victory in the not-so-distant future that keeps the general population behind the government. The government will face the challenge of burning its candle at both ends. If it is to defend its constituencies in the rest of the country from LTTE attack, the government will have to reduce its offensive capacity in the northern theatre of operations. On the other hand, the escalating cost of war, both human and economic, will impel the government to try and accelerate its military campaign and ensure rapid victories before the candle blows out.
   
   Unviable option
   In aiming to destroy the LTTE's military capacity on the military battlefield, the government is seeking to achieve a rare feat in the annals of modern warfare. The political hardness of heart to bear any cost, military superiority and international support stemming from the global war against terrorism are factors in the government's favour. Although few and far between, there have also been military successes in wars against ethnic separation. Two recent examples come from the Indian suppression of Sikh separatism in Punjab and Russian suppression of separatism in Chechnya. But both these victories were secured by countries which have enormous armies and virtually unlimited resources for the task at their disposal.
   It is not surprising therefore that most countries that have been assisting Sri Lanka's development over the past decades have cautioned the government against single-minded over-reliance on the military option.
   The government's difficulties with regard to a political solution come from two main sources. The first is President Mahinda Rajapaksa's promise to the people in his election manifesto of November 2005 that saw him win the presidency. The President promised to uphold the unitary system of governance that, in the perception of the Sinhalese majority, is the best guarantee of the country's unity. The success of the President as a politician has been his ability to identify himself with the fears and aspirations of the ethnic majority, and to apparently share them himself.
   The second source of the government's difficulties comes from the extreme nationalist JVP which enjoys disproportionate power in the current Parliament. The JVP has laid down a condition that no political solution, and not even the existing 13th Amendment to the Constitution, should be implemented until the LTTE is militarily defeated and disarmed. This type of uncompromising position is unlikely to be held by the majority of people. But the JVP's advantageous position in Parliament, where it is able to provide the government with its majority, enables them to impose their diktat on the government to which it is providing ideological leadership.
   
   Political solution
   In these circumstances, much attention is being devoted to the outcome of the All Parties Representatives Committee appointed by President Rajapaksa over a year and a half ago to find a political solution to the ethnic conflict. Although the main opposition parties are not represented in it, the APRC is a sufficiently representative grouping of political parties for its proposals to have legitimacy. Its chairman Prof. Tissa Vitharana has earned well deserved respect for his long years of commitment to a negotiated solution to the ethnic conflict through a viable political solution.
   A draft proposal put out by the APRC a little over a year ago was widely hailed as a viable proposition that could provide a basis for a political solution. While it would not go so far as to explicitly propose a federal solution, the proposal indicated that the political solution had to go beyond the confines of the present unitary constitutional framework. This has been a longstanding demand of the ethnic minorities who seek a power sharing solution to the ethnic conflict. The APRC has set itself a deadline of January 23 to come out with their final proposal.
   A fortnight ago there were media reports that President Rajapaksa had attempted to influence the APRC's deliberations by thrusting a proposal of his own on it. This could have been due to the President's anxiety to keep within the limits set out by the JVP which views any new political proposal outside the framework of the existing highly centralised and unitary political system with disfavour. According to unofficial reports the President's solution was for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment that established Provincial Councils within the framework of the existing constitutional framework plus administrative measures to implement Tamil as an official language and recruit more Tamils to the government service.
   The proposal for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment rings hollow as a solution to the ethnic conflict. A basic feature of the 13th Amendment which made it a compromise between the competing forces of ethnic nationalism was the provision for the temporary merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces, which has been undone. The two other basic weaknesses of the 13th Amendment, even if it is fully implemented, are that it does not devolve financial power but leaves this at the discretion of a Finance Commission, which is appointed by the President.
   It is important for national unity that the hope of a just political solution to the ethnic conflict should remain alive, especially to the Tamil people. If the government is genuine about the President's proposal for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment, even as it presently exists, this can be supported as a first step in a long and slow journey of devolution of powers to the regions. But it cannot be a solution to the ethnic conflict. The indication that the APRC will accept the President's proposals as an interim measure, until its own more comprehensive proposals get concretised into a political agreement that can be implemented suggests a pragmatic approach. It keeps the hope alive that the APRC will be a part of the solution, and not be a part of the problem.

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ISLAMABAD DIARY

Jonaid Iqbal

We are having the coldest weather at Islamabad since 1955, when the mercury dips to -3 degrees Celsius, forcing people to remain indoors.
   The young people like to enjoy the weather, building ice snowman and throwing snow at each other. When you wake up in the morning you find the road carpeted with white sleet which mingling with the breeze makes the cold weather intolerable.
   The older people have been warned to get to have flu shots as prevention, but then there is the danger that children might catch pneumonia.
   However, even the cold weather can promise some thrill since the Geo TV channel is back on the airwaves. The channel went off in the evening of November 3, a few hours before President Musharraf clamped emergency. He had his COAS to promulgate a Provisional Constitution, thus infringing with the basic law he had taken oath to defend and protect.
   
   Geo TV's resumption
   The Geo TV channel was off the cable networks for more than 80 days since he ordered the channel's resumption just a day before he left for eight days' tour of England, France and the EU headquarters in Brussels.
   When the Geo TV installed a mike at the dais when he was about to address a news conference at the European Union headquarters in Brussels he, in a bid to earn public goodwill, sort of welcomed the resumption of Geo TV and boasted that the media in Pakistan had always been free during his dispensation.
   That has not prevented editorial writers in Pakistan to note that he had ordered Geo back, just to make an impression on the Europeans.
   
   Rice and Musharraf
   There the President repeated that the election promised for Feb 18 would be fair, free and transparent. However, there is no end of people who still doubt whether there would be an election. Even so, US foreign secretary Condoleezza Rice and President Musharraf are reported once again to be on the same wavelength, a reversal of an earlier situation of only a day ago when Dr. Rice was reported saying a day before that there was no point in holding an election if it was not fair and free.
   But both Nawaz Sharif and the new PPP Chairman Asaf Zardari are still harping on the same tune that the government had planned to rig the election. Has this perception anything to do with the forecast of a Bahawalpur soothsayer, one with the name of Sibtain, who has promised to PML-Q chief Shujaat Hussain and his cousin, the expected PML-Q's (if it wins a fair election) would-be Prime Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi that they would see good days in future.
   
   Ban on BBC and CNN
   However, Geo TV kept on operating from Dubai and feeding the public with news of political contents containing shenanigans and happenings going on behind the scene. For others who did not subscribe the cable networks, Geo TV went on running the entire proceeding via the Internet. "We have not had so much information previously as we have now," said a member of the public who kept on seeing GEO and other TV channels such as Aaj, ARY Networks etc. Event the BBC and CNN was not accessible to the Pakistani public in those days.
   The government had its own reasons to keep the TV off the reach of the people. It did not want that the projection of agitations would spill on the roads and assume strong protest demonstrations as it did after March 9 when a good number of people came out on the streets to protest against the dethroning of Chief Justice. As a result of control of the TV networks the intensity of protest demonstrations has been defanged.

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