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HC RULE SHIFTS FOCUS OF POLITICAL TALKS
National consensus, not national govt.
Sadeq Khan
The rumour mill is abuzz in Dhaka. The noises are not so much about the fate of the mainstream parties, their alliances, and their inner-party squabbles, overt or covert, on the question of absolute loyalty to their dynastic leaders. Media obsession over "the two ladies" and orchestrated demands for their freedom from detention appear to have been somewhat cooled by the High Court verdict on Azam J. Chowdhury's case. That case seeking justice against Sheikh Hasina and others for criminal extortion by abuse of state power has been quashed by the High Court.
The quashment order was given mainly on the ground of a technicality that a crime committed before the proclamation of state of emergency cannot be tried under Emergency Powers Rules, which prescribes a different set of punishment than the laws prevalent at the time of commitment of the crime. That quashment order remains in place until the Supreme Court decides on hearing the government's appeal against the order. Possibly the media and the speculative crowd of articulate opinion have been struck somewhat by the nonchalance with which the government and its new Law Adviser have reacted to the verdict. The government expected an adverse verdict, and the Law Adviser said ahead of its pronouncement that the Supreme Court decision over the points raised by the amicus curie in the High Court may have far-reaching implications for other emergency court cases already disposed of or under process. It is surmised that the government expects a direction from the Supreme Court about necessary amendments to EPR to reconcile its provisions with the Constitutional requirements. In fact another High Court Bench had earlier given a verdict saying charges under EPR for crimes committed before the proclamation of emergency did not violate the Constitution.
On behalf of the government, the Attorney General had filed within one hour a leave to appeal and sought a stay order on the adverse verdict by the High Court on Azam J. Chowdhury's case. So far the stay order did not come, and a regular appeal petition was invited by the full bench of the Supreme Court from the Attorney General. When on the date of hearing, the respondents sought time for their senior advocate to return from abroad, the Attorney General did not object to postponement. The appellants appear sure of their grounds.
But in reality, even with a direction from the Supreme Court, it could be a tall order to satisfactorily conciliate the EPR modes of prosecution with rights guaranteed by the Constitution, other than those that may be suspended during an emergency. As such the cases filed against "the two ladies" and many others by the Caretaker Government may prove unsustainable, and may have to be taken up in a regular process that will have little chance of disposal within the parameter of the "roadmap" of the
Caretaker regime. And under regular process of law, arguments for the detention of "the two ladies" on the apprehension that they might use their tremendous influences to pervert the course of justice, or even to intimidate the courts by mass mobilisation, will certainly not hold ground.
It is strange under the circumstances that speculations about the impending release of the two ladies have not crystallised as yet. Instead, the buzz of the rumour mills is about the crystallisation of a "third front" in politics, as if such a front may sprout in spring with old roots and new buds overnight. Vernacular newspapers are carrying big stories of meetings and consultations amongst "reformist" leaders of mainstream parties, turncoats of various shades, new entrants into politics and local level community leaders and social workers who are having brainstorming sessions about how to weld such a broad "national front". The contradictions in their different approaches have been highlighted in public statements, made by some aspirants who are elbowing for space in the fluid power-matrix taking shape.
For instance, a former Adviser of the caretaker administration and Regulatory Reforms Commission (RRC) Chairman Dr Akbar Ali Khan stressed the immediate need for national consensus to find out a way out of the political crisis.
He said that establishing the rule of law, strengthening democracy and promoting political tolerance can help put an end to political instability. In his opinion political instability is a bigger problem than corruption for the nation. He suggested bringing about some changes such as reducing the tenure of parliament and enhancing the authority of the president, especially in appointing persons for constitutional posts, and empowering the president to decide alone while removing or dismissing government officials. "Our prime ministers enjoy excessive power like Mughal emperors. As a result, they treat their party lawmakers as subordinates." He was speaking in Rajshahi on February 18. He felt that consensus on presidential powers and curbs on prime ministerial dictations needed to be arrived at before the general election.
Retired Major General Syed Muhammad Ibrahim, Bir Pratik, a think-tank on security-related issues turned politician leading a new political party, spoke in Chittagong on the same day. He also touched on the need for a national consensus. But he reacted sharply to the suggestion of forming a consensus government (or a pre-parliamentary council) ahead of general election. Such a move would ignite a wild fire, he said. In his opinion, it would be risky to go for a government of national consensus in the absence of an elected parliament. It might spark a fireball of indignation. He suggested, nonetheless, that although he is all for multiparty adversarial politics and decentralisation of administrative power, a national consensus government could be formed if situation so demanded. He refused to comment on the matter of detention of "the two ladies."
Postponement of the hearing of the government appeal against the High Court verdict may have put out of media focus for the time being the cases of "the two ladies", bringing in focus speculations about a "third front" defying the pre-eminence of "the two ladies". It is yet to be seen whether such defiance may sustain a possible reversal after the Supreme Court speaks.
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WB'S MOVE TO FUND AGRI SECTOR
GOB must make sure conditions don't cripple its own initiatives
Faruque Ahmed
The World Bank (WB) is refocusing its strategy in the country's agriculture and experts believe the change may come as a big boost to accelerate its transition to achieving higher productivity, processing and marketing of newly diversified farm products.
But the move has also put many critics to wonder the motives behind it. The apprehension became clear when Dr Mesbahuddin Ahmed, currently the chief executive of the Palli Karma Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) said at a seminar last week that fresh WB interest has come to stimulate only after 26 years of its last report on Bangladesh agriculture in 1982.
The seminar was organised by the WB local office to release a report on Bangladesh agriculture signalling the bank's readiness to fund the country's agriculture once again. But critics remained sceptical how to interpret this long silence. Since the early 1980s, the Bangladesh agriculture made phenomenal stride when its rice output has nearly tripled from 10 million tones to almost thirty million tones. How could it become possible? Is it because of the WB's absence from funding this sector, which allowed it the necessary breathing space to grow on its own without any hindrance?
Experts say Bangladesh agriculture is ready again for a take off. It is looking forward to achieve a breakthrough to higher productivity level using the high yielding rice varieties. It includes a steady switch over to high breed rice and growing innovations of traditional varieties.
But the question that how the WB would be able to fit its presence into the new transition is casting a lengthening shadow.
Last year the WB board of directors at its annual meeting in Washington decided to resume funding to Bangladesh agriculture. The WB's new report on Bangladesh agriculture within half a year's time of the decision showed the prompt action to make it an active party to the development of the country's agriculture. But the question that the critics are increasingly taking to the fore is to whose benefits the WB's involvement has been planned. They said if it is to help the Bangladesh agriculture sector, its keeping away from it may be the best support it could give as it happened over the past two decades.
The critics say if the WB is willing to help, it must come forward to look at things from the country's demand side perspectives without trying to push unnecessary projects, consultants and selling of seeds and pesticides to create new supply windows for the multinationals and the donor countries from behind the scene.
And they seemed to have a valid reason. Making a strong case of apprehension, they said the WB in the past had pressured the government to defunct the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation and make it a lame duck. It did not support research and development activities to break new ground for the country's agriculture to move forward. Rather acting on its suggestions, the government has to totally privatise the supply chain of fertilisers. Consequently, the countrywide fertiliser godowns, which were built in the past with hundreds of millions dollars of donors assistance were abandoned and allowed to collapse in ruin without repair and maintenance. With it the government also lost the intervention capacity to reach fertiliser and other agricultural inputs to farmers at times of supply crisis. This in effect has put the entire business to private manipulators' hand.
The seed marketing also passed on to private business on WB suggestion. In the process, the BADC's strong seed growing facilities located all over the country was rolled back while the supply agents of the multinationals largely took over the job. The irrigation wing of the BADC was also shelved switching the business to private hand. The failing jute sector is yet another example of the supply side prescription of the World Bank, the critics added.
Notwithstanding the domination of the free market economy, agriculture in almost all advanced developed economies largely benefits from billions of dollars of subsidy. They not only provide subsidy to domestic agriculture but also extend price support to agricultural exports to keep the largest traditional business at farm gates financially viable to support the nation's macroeconomic stability as agriculture stands at the backbone of the national economy.
The WB experts here in Bangladesh as also in other developing countries, however tell a different story. They put pressure to open up the agriculture to multinationals instead of putting emphasis to restructuring it within the domestic periphery. And to achieve their goals, they put all sorts of conditions and use critical diplomatic interventions. Bangladesh has had enough of it in the meantime.
So this time when the WB is lining up the funding, the past lessons and experiences must work as the guiding force for the future course of events, critics say.
The WB priorities have two aspects. In the first place it wants to promote the high value agriculture and secondly it seeks to promote agro-business. It includes upgrading the enabling environment for agro-business and promoting knowledge for agro-business, taking pro-active stance towards food safety and management, improving market linkages and strengthening institutions and organisations including strong commodity industry and profession-based associations essential for agro-business.
The pro-active stance would require formulating a comprehensive food safety policy, improving coordination among the various ministries and agencies involved in food grain production and supply chain control. Regulatory bodies such as Bangladesh standard and Testing Institution (BSTI) also requires new skill and technology.
Some of the measures may also require updating regulations for food safety and quality of animal feed, review of market legislation including market leasing policies and further reviewing of the overall ease of doing business in agricultural inputs and outputs.
The measures may further require rationalising subsidies, export incentives and tax benefits targeted to promote agro-business.
The WB has also emphasised in the report the need for infrastructure and human resource development, increasing electricity generation, promoting good governance, improving technology generation, adaptation to climate change and dissemination of knowledge to farmers.
Some other WB suggestions include promoting market linkages such as capacity building for market research, develop market information system and strengthen market related know-how.
The WB report has also laid emphasis on creating mechanism for better public-private dialogue and alliances in developing high value agriculture and related business with important role for the public sector.
Its proposals would require the whole institutional restructuring and existing policy regime of the government relating to agriculture to come for change in the line the WB would suggest. And critics believe that in course of the country's agriculture might slowly become dependent on its complicated regime of conditions and compliance requirement to justify the development assistance to get the transition derailed in the process.
Will it be good for the country's agriculture at a time it is getting ready for the new transition is the biggest question that the policy makers should be able to answer in the coming days before giving serious thoughts to the new WB initiatives.
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Is CG serious about credible polls?
Abdur Rahman Khan
Chief Adviser (CA) Fakhruddin Ahmed last week said his government was advancing towards its goal to transfer power to a democratic government through holding a fair, neutral and credible election.
The Caretaker Government (CG) earlier announced an election roadmap with a commitment to hold the general elections by the end of this year. However, the politicians and the public in general are not sure whether the election could be held in accordance with the announced roadmap.
Meanwhile, widespread controversy has been raised because of various non-election activities and imprudent statements from the government side. There is no denying the fact that an apprehension has been created about whether a free, fair and acceptable election would be held in time under the present EC.
The move to bring reforms in political parties did not yield desired results for the caretaker authorities. Moreover, the CG's attempt towards framing fresh election rules, delimiting the constituencies and simultaneous holding of elections to the local government bodies and the national parliament caused fresh controversies.
On this background, the EC is set to start its second round of dialogue with the political parties keeping the question of BNP's representation pending with the court. The letter written by BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia from her imprisonment was stopped by the jail authorities showing "political reasons". It created another controversy whether the CG wanted BNP to keep out of the dialogue or the election process.
BNP Joint Secretary General Gayeswar Chandra Roy questioned whether the CG was at all serious about holding a credible election.
To add further to doubts, the government prepared a draft rule for holding City Corporation elections keeping away politically active persons and the "war criminals" without defining the words. Such an attempt would not be acceptable to political parties, Jamaat leader M Quamruzzaman told the Holiday.
As the CGt's reform agenda failed to generate sufficient enthusiasm in political parties, the rank and file in both Awami League and BNP are putting pressure for movement to get their leaders released from prison.
The pro-reformist BNP leader Major (rtd) Hafizuddin Ahmed, who went abroad on Sunday, said, "BNP, the biggest political party of the country, cannot remain inactive due to necessary directives as the party Chairperson is in prison. We have many senior leaders with adequate political experience and they can guide the party correctly."
The newly appointed Secretary general of BNP, Khandaker Delwar Hossain, urged the leaders and workers of the party and its front organisations to keep the organisation united under the leadership of Begum Zia at any cost.
Dhaka City Awami League leaders at a discussion meeting on Tuesday expressed dissatisfaction over the inaction of the party in chalking out programmes for the release of party president Sheikh Hasina.
Party insiders believe that the leadership should be under any illusion that this CG would hand over power to Awami League as per any design. Awami League being a democratic party must not fall into any conspiracy but must strive for a fair election process, they believe.
A serious allegation was also raised in the meeting when the speakers feared slow-poisoning to Sheikh Hasina's in the prison.
Meanwhile, a reform movement has been launched to collect fair and honest candidates for next general elections. Some former student leaders and politicians have joined the process as reported in a Dhaka daily on Wednesday. Freedom Figher Noyeem Jahangir, who was refused a BNP nomination in last parliamentary elections, and Hasib Khan, a former student leader and presently an NGO executive, have been mentioned active in the process with support from the authorities. Such moves are adding to the suspicion about the sincerity and neutrality of the present military-backed CG.
Apart from the election issue, people are losing confidence in the governance on the question of running the state affairs that was badly affecting the economy of the country.
Finance adviser AB Mirza Azizul Islam confessed Monday that the economy was under pressure and investment was declining. "Demand is outstripping output, leaving a negative impact on the economy," the adviser told reporters in his ministry adding that the government did not get expected results in the field of investment.
The ongoing emergency in the political and economic arena may create a 'social emergency' in the country unless the CG deals with the economic problems properly, Dr Akbar Ali Khan, chairman of Regulatory Reforms Commission (RRC), told a seminar recently.
"Economic and political instability may be a grave concern for any given country and we are now going through such a critical situation," he said, adding that the administration will have to adopt mid-term planning so that economic emergency could be tackled and confidence builds up among the people.
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CAN MUSHARRAF BE IMPEACHED?
Pakistanis seek revenge through democracy
M. Shahidul Islam in Montreal
Despite bombs and boycotts scaring away nearly 65 per cent of the 80 million voters from coming to the 64,176 polling stations to cast their ballots on February 18, the Pakistanis shouted an emphatic 'NO' to the rule of President Parvez Musharraf who might face an impeachment in coming weeks.
Early results indicate a routing of Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) and tosses a challenge to his nearly a decade long authoritarian rule that allowed him a free reign to convert Pakistan's system of governance from a parliamentary to a presidential one. The results so far indicate the voters viewed this election as a referendum on Musharraf himself.
A cruel time of reckoning now awaits the commando soldier who, since assuming power through a military coup in 1999, has twice declared martial law, suspended the constitution twice, declared emergencies two times and conducted a series of elections that everyone, except his King's Party, considered fraudulent and widely rigged. Besides, political events since March 2007 have plunged the country into a state of chaos, uncertainty and hopelessness. Voters have shown particular dislike to his arbitrary amendments of the 1973 Constitution that represented a national and social consensus among the four federating units with diverse ethnicity.
As a result, the election outcome has turned out to be a revenge spree through democracy. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) has fared better in the polls, partly out of sympathy for the brutal assassination of Benazir Bhutto, winning 87 seats until the composition of this write up. With 258 of 268 seats counted, Newaz Sharif's PML (N) won 66 and the secular Awami National Party (ANP) won 10, according to the private GEO television's Web site. A total of 2,250 candidates contested the race for the National Assembly and another 570 vied for the four provincial assembly seats.
Unconfirmed reports said PPP's senior vice chairman, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, is the likely candidate for the post of the Prime Minister. Fahim won his parliamentary seat from his hometown of Matiari in southern Pakistan.
Buoyed by this outcome, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari had already invited political groups to build a national coalition government. "We will form the government in the centre and all the four provinces with the help of our allies," Zardari told reporters in Islamabad. He however cautioned that the PPP "Is yet to decide who will be the leader of the house." Earlier, Zardari took over the party when his wife Benazir was assassinated on Dec. 27.
But Zardari's offer to cobble a working coalition is not devoid of preconditions. Prominent among them are: (1) a UN-led probe into the assassination of Bhutto, (2) reinstatement of deposed judges, (3) cancellation of November 2007 Presidential election, etc. About the fate of President Musharraf, Zardari sounded diplomatic. "The new parliament should decide whether Musharraf should stay or go," he said.
Despite being marred by a spate of terrorist attacks, the poll was comparatively peaceful although at least 10 people were killed in violence on the polling day and over 100 were injured. Another 37 were killed in a devastating suicide attack on the PPP rally two days prior to the polls. The polls' credibility, however, received a jolt not only due to the very low turnout of voters (35 per cent), an alliance of over 20 parties, known as All Party Democratic Alliance (APDM) - which included the Jamat -I- Ulema Islam (JUI) and Tahrik -I- Insaf Party (PTI) of former cricketer Imran Khan- boycotted the polls, while another 47 parties joined the race in the hope of restoring democracy to a nation that was ruled by the military during the better part of its history.
Prior to the poll, Musharraf was backed by the PML (Q), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Jamat-e-Ulema Islami (JUI). The outcome of the poll is tearing that alliance apart and the MQM has expressed its willingness to hold parleys with the PPP and PML (N) on forming a coalition government. For the "sake of national solidarity, prosperity and welfare of the people", the MQM is willing to forget the past and look forward to bringing stability to Pakistan," MQM chief Altaf Hussein told reporters at the party's international secretariat in London.
Mainly composed of immigrants from India who had built a bastion of power in the Sindh's capital, Karachi, the MQM has had a historic rivalry with the PPP due to the Sindh being a traditional PPP stronghold. But the party has performed well in the polls to the National Assembly and the provincial assembly of Sindh with initial results showing it had bagged over 15 seats in the lower house of parliament. Hussein said he was willing to hold a dialogue with the PPP and PML (N) on the possibility of forming a government at the centre or in Sindh in the "larger national interest."
That is what has made the prospect of Musharraf's impeachment a bit more realistic, although a lot of horse trading is needed to execute such a vision. The total numbers of seats in the Pakistani parliament are 342, including 10 seats held exclusively for non-Muslims and 60 for women. To keep Musharraf in power, or to impeach him, treasury or the opposition need to muster the support of at least 228 members (about 67 per cent). That magic number can only be garnered if the PPP, PML (N), MQM, ANP and some other smaller parties close ranks.
The other most important issue is the question of leadership upon Musharraf's departure from the political scene, if he is impeached. Sharif was legally barred from contesting the polls and Zardari is considered a non-starter by many of his detractors. Both of them also face corruption charges. As well, there is no other credible and able leader to steer Pakistan away from the ongoing instability marked by incessant anarchy and lawlessness of a kind that is getting more dangerous than what is happening in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Besides, stability in Afghanistan has become inextricably linked with stability in Pakistan and, stability in Pakistan depends largely on finding an acceptable solution to the ongoing insurgency in the NWFP and Baluchistan where the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban) have gathered strength in collusion with the Afghan Taliban across the Durand Line that divides the two countries.
The worst looser in this election is the US which has lost earlier Benazir, and now risks loosing its other trusted ally, Musharraf. The US might try to save Musharraf from being impeached as it has other things to worry. Hardliners in Tehrik- e -Taliban, US's main enemy, say they don't care who wins the election, which they consider irrelevant. This is what has led the Baloch and Pashtun regional parties to boycott the elections and some of them to take up arms against the state. Whoever forms the next government, one of the most difficult tasks will be to bring these disillusioned elements back into the political orbit to halt the inexorable slide of the nation into a full blown civil war.
The restoration of an independent judiciary is another equally important challenge the new government must meet. Under Musharraf, the superior judiciary was removed through the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) of November 2007 as it was suspected of making a ruling against Musharraf on the question of the validity of his election as the President while being, concurrently, an army chief. This has complicated further the constitutional crisis and the nation's quest for democracy.
Although that complication may prove difficult to overcome sooner, the possibility of a grand alliance involving the PML (N), PPP, ANP and the MQM is looming larger. If successfully consummated, the combined thrust of this alliance may provide the much needed counterweight to the power that resided in the Presidency for nearly a decade and a modicum of check and balance between the elected government and the Presidency can be restored.
Much however depends on Musharraf himself who has to brace for an amicable adjustment with this political heterogeneity to save Pakistan from another impending constitutional crisis. The election result does beacon a hope for democracy, but that hope is hamstrung by the lack of any single party winning a majority and the prospective coalition partners not being harmonious in precepts and persuasions.
Herein lies the role of the military and the new army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, must stand by to oversee this painful transition to democracy and be prepared to intervene if the incoming tussle over Musharraf's impeachment pushes the country back into the brink of another major constitutional crisis.
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Pakistanis see polls as referendum against Musharraf
Jonaid Iqbal in Islamabad with desk reports
Pakistan is giong to have a civilian government after President Pervez Musharraf said he accepted the defeat of his party in the polls and would work with a new Parliament.
The PPP wants Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister Musharraf overthrew in 1999, to join the coalition along with an ethnic Pashtun party that kicked Islamist parties out of power in the North West Frontier Province where militants operate.
According to unofficial results for 261 seats, the PPP, Sharif's party and the Awami National Party (ANP) held a shade under the two-thirds they need to change the constitution or bring Musharraf down, but independents could join their banner.
The PPP began stitching together a coalition on Wednesday that could topple President Pervez Musharraf, after winning most seats in the general election.
Many Pakistanis stated that the overwhelming vote for the two major moderate political parties had marked a change in direction after eight years of military rule under Musharraf. They see the election as referendum against President Gen. Musharraf.
The leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, Nawaz Sharif, who was prime minister twice in the 1990s, is now in the catbird seat to help forge the new government with Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party.
A key factor in the relatively smooth election was the decision of the new chief of the army, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to ensure that the military stayed out of the campaign and did not interfere on election day, analysts said.
Now, after one of the most dramatic electoral results in recent Pakistan history, the United States, which has been a staunch supporter of Musharraf even as a Taliban and Qaeda insurgency grew, must seek new partners in the campaign against the Islamic militants.
The election of a new government should help the United States if Washington is looking to work with moderate forces, said General Jehangir Karamat, a former chief of staff of the Pakistani Army.
"It's an opportunity to rejuvenate this whole relationship," Karamat said. "What we are seeing through these elections is moderate and liberal forces, which is absolutely great."
During the election campaign, both Sharif and Zardari said they believed Pakistan had to turn the war against the insurgents into a Pakistani effort rather than one that was dictated by the United States. These sentiments found resonance because Pakistanis had come to fear the insurgents but resented the feeling that Pakistan, under the rule of Musharraf, had become a tool of the United States, analysts said.
"The lesson for the United States in this is to listen to the will of the people," said Jehangir Tareen, who was a member of Musharraf's early cabinet and supports Pakistan's alliance with Washington.
In the 1990s, the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N were rivals, and there is little love between the two camps. The leaders of the parties, Bhutto and Sharif, were each in exile for nearly a decade until very recently, and both tried to run their parties from abroad.
Zardari, a controversial man who has faced corruption charges in Pakistan, has never held elective office. He faces rumblings and distrust in his party, and it is not clear how well the negotiations that are expected to begin in the coming days between Zardari and Sharif will proceed.
Nawaz, who was ousted as prime minister in 1999 in a coup led by Musharraf, framed his campaign on a distinctly anti-Musharraf platform, a tactic that appears to have worked well, and brought his party an unexpectedly strong victory. Zardari sounded more accommodating tones about Musharraf.
Pakistanis have proved wrong all grim speculations about a bloodbath during the ninth general elections on Monday last as polls were rigging-free and passed off peacefully.
Initial reports make it abundantly clear that the people have voted to change the status quo. However, it is clear that the People's Party in Sindh and PML-N in the Punjab have bagged the largest number of votes.
PPP, in addition to winning a number of NA-seats, has also registered itself as a major party in all the four provinces.
Nawaz's party which has a clear majority in National Assembly seats in the Punjab secured very little seats in the provinces.
The religious party of MMM was defeated both in the federal seats as well as in the provinces, including in the NWFP, where it formed government. Maulana Fazlur Rahman, Opposition leader in the National Assembly, failed to be elected.
The PML-Q, which was in the government until last December, lost heavily everywhere. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain lost his seat in Gujarat to PPP candidate Chaudhry Mukhtar. Former Railways Minister Shaikh Rashid, a never-losing six-time winner, got defeated this time. So did former foreign minister Khurshid Mahood Kasuri.
National Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain lost. Former Parliamentary Affairs Minister, known for introducing some of the quaintest argument in favour of President Musharraf, lost his seat, as well. Head of the Parliamentary Kashmir Committee Hamid Nasir Chattha lost at Gujranwala.
Commentators and news analysts clearly see the election results as a referendum against President Musharraf. In the words of an editorial writer, ''All the collaborators and their henchmen, barring a few in urban protected political pockets, have been wiped out in a historic sweep against General (retired) Pervez Musharraf''.
The rate of turnout was not very impressive but Chief Election Commissioner Justice Qazi Muhammad Farooq was satisfied, and said it would not affect the legality of the election. He also praised the media for its role in bringing out the masses to vote.
Reports of 25 deaths, as well as 150 cases of injuries have also come in as a result of clashes at 30 polling stations at Faisalabad, Khairpur, Lahore and Quetta. The casualty figure is not too many considering the violent nature of elections in South Asian countries.
A number of complaints, such as high food price, inflation, power and gas outages, the tragedy of Lal Masjid, where more than 100 people, including women and children perished right in the federal capital, led to the defeat of the whole of lot of General Musharraf's cronies in what is known as the king's party, the PML-Q, who are now blaming him (President Musharraf) for the defeat.
While casting his vote, Pakistan President Musharraf promised to work with whoever won the election. Two days ago Musharraf termed the former Chief Justice a corrupt person and also expressed dissatisfaction with the Media. However, the election results, as it has unfolded, will give him no choice but to deal with the issue of bringing the sacked judges back, because that certainly is the demand of all winning parties, including Nawaz Sharif.
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MACCAIN MAY BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
US primary: Hillary-Obama tied up in race
Moinuddin Naser from New York
Wisconsin is almost the kind of state Hillary Clinton would have invented to win a Democratic presidential primary, brimming with whites and working class voters who usually support her. A poor performance there Tuesday would raise big questions about her candidacy. Her rival Barack Obama has won in eight straight states, including decisive victories last week in Virginia and Maryland, and has begun to diminish her edge with core supporters like women and the elderly.
Most of the US election analysts said that if Hillary Clinton, who is now about 49 delegates trailing behind Obama, failed to win Texas and Ohio comfortably her game will be over. She had given up Wisconsin. But now the wind is that in Texas both the democrats are tied up. In Ohio, the situation is a little bit in favour of Hillary. Now Hillary Clinton is stuck at 1213 delegates, while Obama has bagged 1262 delegates.
On the other hand the Republican candidate John McCain has already bagged 830 delegates while with the endorsement of Romney, who has left the campaign the number of delegates to his pocket may go up to 1116, while a total of 1191 is required to ensure the candidacy. Mike Huckabee bagged 217 delegates and Ron Paul 16.
In the democratic camp in a desperate move Barack Obama visited the house of John Edward (bagged 26) delegates in North Carolina to fetch his support, as he has withdrawn from the race, but failed to obtain the support.
It seems none in the democratic camp will be able to obtain required 2025 delegates as 10 per cent of the total 4050 delegates have become dormant as the Michigan and Florida delegates will not be counted. Because the parties in these two states did not listen to the central stricture not to hold polls before super Tuesday held on February 12. If none can make 2025 delegates the decision will be made by super delegates, who include former president, sitting president, former vice-president, present senators, former senators, present house of representatives, former house of representatives, national committee's office bearers and states committees appointed delegates. Meanwhile Hillary has got endorsement of 234 super delegates and Obama has got support of 156. Obama is preferring to nominate who will win most of the delegates, while Hillary campaign wants to determine the matter by super delegates.
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries on March 4.
In the survey, out Monday, 50 per cent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.
Two recent polls by other organisations also show the race statistically even. "One reason the race appears to be tight is that Texas Democrats are having a hard time choosing between two attractive options," says CNN polling director Keating Holland.
"Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues
Roughly a quarter of likely voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks - and not surprisingly, those people are splitting roughly equally between Clinton and Obama."
Many political strategists and analysts consider Texas and Ohio - which also holds a March 4 primary - must-win states for Clinton. Obama has won the past eight contests and is now ahead in the overall battle for delegates, 193 of which are at stake in Texas.
The new survey indicates Arizona Sen. John McCain is the clear favourite for the Republican presidential nomination.
Among Republicans, 55 per cent of likely Texas GOP primary voters support McCain as their choice for nominee. Thirty-two percent back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 11 percent support home-state congressman and former Libertarian standard-bearer Ron Paul. The poll's sampling error for Republican respondents is 4 percentage points.
McCain is the overwhelming front-runner in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination and party leaders have rallied around the candidate in an attempt for party unity.
But McCain has had trouble winning conservative voters. Just last week, McCain lost the conservative vote to Huckabee in the Virginia primary, according to exit polls. The new survey, though, suggests McCain may have better luck in Texas.
"It looks like McCain has made some inroads with conservative Republicans," Holland said.
Texas Democrats and Republicans may not see eye to eye on the issues, but the poll suggests they do agree on what's the most important issue. Thirty-five percent of Democrats and an equal number of Republicans said the economy was the most important issue in their choice for president.
The second most important issue for Democrats was health care, at 23 per cent, followed by the war in Iraq at 22 per cent, illegal immigration at 10 percent and terrorism at 7 percent.
Nineteen percent of Republicans said illegal immigration was their most important issue, putting it in second place, followed by the war in Iraq and terrorism at 17 percent and health care at 8 per cent.
Sixty per cent of Republicans say they'll definitely support the candidate they are now backing. That number climbs to 76 per cent for Democrats.
Likely Democratic primary voters view Clinton and Obama on roughly equal terms. Seventy-nine per cent say they would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee; an equal number feel the same way about Obama. Seventy-nine per cent say it's likely Clinton can win the nomination; 82 per cent say the same about Obama.
The two candidates are essentially tied on immigration, Iraq and the economy, but Clinton has an advantage on health care and abortion.
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North-west India: where generals become governors
Nava Thakuria
THE appointment of General (Retired) Joginder Jaswant Singh as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh on January 24 has stimulated some vital questions among the conscious citizens of the Northeast. The former Army chief, General Singh retired from service last year and has been assigned Governor by the President Pratibha Patil. General Singh, who was honoured with the Param Vishisht Seva Medal (PVSM), Ati Vishisht Seva Medal (AVSM) and Vishisht Seva Medal (VSM) during his four decade long career has joined two serving Governors in the insurgency stricken Northeast, who also have a defence background.
Lieutenant General (Retired) Ajai Singh, PVSM, AVSM took over as Governor of Assam from another Lieutenant General (Retired) four years ago. The former Assam Governor S K Sinha was transferred to Jammu and Kashmir. Another Lieutenant General (Retired), who has been serving in Mizoram is M M Lakhera, PVSM, AVSM, VSM. On the other hand, Tripura has a retired Indian Police Service official Dinesh Nandan Sahaya as its Governor. Thus four states (out of eight) in the Northeast have Governors who were men in uniform.
A chief minister in India is identified as the head of a state government and Governors are recognised as the Constitutional heads of the states. The Indian Constitution has given most of the political power to the chief minister, but the Governors also enjoy some special powers under various provisions of the Constitution. While, a chief minister (with his council of ministers) of a state is directly accountable to its citizens, the Governors are normally made accountable to the President of the country only.
Constitution & Governors
The Governor under the provisions of the Indian Constitution enjoys the right to be kept informed of all major decisions adopted by the state government. More over, the Governor gives oath to the chief minister and the council of ministers of the state following the advice of the chief minister. Similarly, the Governor summons the state legislature and also dissolves the legislative assembly. He addresses the legislature. The Governor must endorse each and every bill passed by the state legislature before it becomes a law. In a particular situation, the Governor can send a report to the President of India that may invite President's Rule after dissolving the state legislative assembly.
However, there are plentiful examples in India, where the difference of opinions between a chief minister and Governor has made the political equation sour. The Governors are usually kept above the public sphere. But in certain points of time, the Governors tend to influence negatively in the socio-political development of a state. In reality, those Governors serve the vested interest of some strong lobby of the Union Government, which is against the spirit of the Constitution. The repeated appointment of Army Generals as Governors in many Northeastern states raises the vital question, whether New Delhi prefers to maintain a second epicentre of power in the states, negating the interest of the nation.
The Northeast has a volatile stew of militant organisations, most of them ethnically based. According to some counts, there are as many as 35 such groups in the region, including the Islamic ones. Armed groups use the jungles in southern Bangladesh and northern Burma as their hideouts and training camps. The land locked region has slowly turned into a land of extortion, explosions and assassinations by the militants. New Delhi is definitely worried with the development and many times it has gone sacking the elected state governments of the
region, whenever any question of territorial some other dispute has emerged.
The black law
One classic example that reflects the attitude of New Delhi towards the people of Northeast is the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 (AFSPA), which has been in affect in the region for five decades now. The AFSPA empowers the security forces to arrest people without warrant, and use excessive force (including shooting or killing, even if the lives of the members of the security force are not at imminent risk). It facilitates impunity because no person can initiate legal action against any member of the armed forces for anything done under the Act, without permission of the Central government.
It will be a real difficult task to find an example anywhere in the democratic world, where a black law like AFSPA could continue for such a long time even after popular uprising against it. New Delhi had earlier ignored the recommendations of a recent committee to repeal the black law. The Justice Jeevan Reddy Commission (2004), which organised public hearings in various parts of Northeast, recommended the repeal of AFSPA, but the government was not convinced.
War zone
So whenever there is news of the appointment of a retired General as a Governor in Northeast, the pertinent question that arises is whether New Delhi always prefers to treat the region as a war zone. As in a battlefield, the Central government seems to make it a habit not to take the state governments into confidence in case of counter insurgency operations. And hence, the region is full of former men in uniform as the constitutional heads of states, so that New Delhi continues to enjoy the last say in managing the troubled zone, where larger sections of the conscious population still nurture anti-New Delhi sentiments even after 60 years of India's Independence.
The author is a Guwahati (Northeast India) based independent journalist and can be contacted at navathakuria@yahoo.com
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Holidayman gets UNHCR-CNES fellowship
Our Correspondent in Guwahati
The contributor to Holiday from Guwahati, Northeast India, Nava Thakuria has been awarded the first media fellowship on refugee issues sponsored by the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and Centre for North East Studies and Policy Research (C-NES). The Fellowship theme is "The Chins of Myanmar: Refugee Life in a Distant Neighbour", with a focus on Protection and Durable Solutions for the Chin ethnic group from Western Myanmar, which lives in challenging conditions in the Northeast as well as in New Delhi. The Award starts from 1 March to 31 May.
The announcement was made by a Committee comprising Mr. Sanjoy Hazarika, C-NES Managing Trustee, journalist and editor, Ms. Pamela Philipose, Independent Journalist and Ms. Nayana Bose of the UNHCR on February 15. The awardee, Mr Thakuria, has written extensively on issues related to Burma (Myanmar). Thakuria is a regular contributor to many acclaimed newspaper and portals based in New Delhi, Dhaka (The Holiday), Hong Kong, Seoul, London and California and his special areas of interest include socio-political developments in Northeast India with Burma, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
It may be mentioned that Mizoram, a Burma bordering Northeast Indian state gives shelter to nearly 40,000 Chin refugees. The refugees started fleeing Burma after the 1988 uprising for restoration of democracy in the land of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Thousand of Burmese have already sacrificed their lives supporting the pro-democracy movement led by the lady. Many of them left Burma to live in exile in its neighbouring Thailand, India and Bangladesh.
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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT
Edward VIII and Wallis Simpson
K. Z. Islam
Edward VIII was King of England for 326 days before abandoning the throne for the woman he loved. Edward met Wallis Simpson when he was still Prince of Wales and she was married to her second husband, Ernest Simpson. She was slender and sophisticated, and captivated him. Before the death of his father King George V, Edward jaunted around Europe with his new love.
The entire world knew about the prince's mistress - except for the British public. While newspapers around the globe published countless stories of the couple's romance, all were clipped by censors before going on sale in Britain. And the British press breathed not a word.
The Duke later admitted that he had decided to marry Wallis as early as 1934. Yet it was not until 3 December 1936 that the affair became public knowledge. The next few days were hell for Wallis. The windows of her home in London's Cumberland Terrace were shattered by stones. Letters and telegrams and abuse flowed in. Wallis was terrified of the public reaction and fled to the south of France. 'I didn't know it would be like this,' she said.
When Edward had declared his love for Wallis to his mother, Queen Mary, the old lady had angrily sent for Prime Minister Baldwin. He immediately sought an audience with the love struck Edward and told him: 'People are talking about you and this American woman. I have had so many nasty letters from people who respected your father and do not like the way you are going on.'
Baldwin realised that the country faced a grave constitutional crisis - but he could not help being impressed by the obvious sincerity of the king's love for his mistress. He spoke later of Edward's 'exalted state of mind'. He said: 'The king's face bore such a look of beauty as might have lighted the face of a young knight who had caught a glimpse of the Holy Grail.' The royal family were unimpressed, however. And they were less than amused by the nickname American newspapers had given to Wallis . . .'Queen Wally'. Queen Mary tried to talk the king into putting duty before love. Later she wrote to him: 'You did not seem able to take in any point of view save your own.'
The king was surprised to find he had an ally in Winston Churchill. At the height of the crisis, Churchill said at lunch: 'Why shouldn't the king marry his cutie?' But Noel Coward, who was at the same table, reflected the feelings of the British people. 'Because,' he said, 'England does not want a Queen Cutie.'
By the eighth day of the crisis the king had shut himself away at his country home, Fort Belvedere, near Virginia Water, Surrey. He spent most of the time on the telephone to Wallis, who was in Cannes. King Edward VIII abdicated on 11 December 1936. Later that day Baldwin read the abdication statement to the House of Commons. The following night the king broadcast to the nation from Windsor Castle, explaining why he had abdicated; His last words were: 'God bless you all and God save the king.' By 'the king' he meant his brother George.
Edward, under his new title Duke of Windsor, then left Britain by Royal Navy destroyer to join the woman he loved, never to set foot on his native soil again..
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