Amanullah Kabir

Expectations soared high among the people regarding former prime minister and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia's release after Sheikh Hasina was freed and allowed to go abroad. They thought very soon Khaleda and her two seriously ill sons would be set free. Inordinate delay in their release even after 10 days since June 11 when Hasina was freed has become a matter of concern in the political circle which smells something fishy in the whole affair.
   What is astonishing is the precondition by the Government that Begum Khaleda Zia will have to submit a petition seeking her own release, despite her repeated refusal to comply with any such condition. Political circles tend to believe that the government is also trying to make her freedom conditional by linking it to the release of her ailing son Tariq Rahman who seems to be a thorn in the flesh of behind-the-scene policy-makers.
   Fallowing Sheikh Hasina's release, it has become legally and morally an obligation on the part of the CG to prove its unbiased, neutral and nonpartisan role as prescribed in the Constitution and assure the nation that it has no ill motive. The reasons that are blocking their release are best known to the CG, but people seemed to have have rediscovered their leaders in the two ladies, demonstrating their reactions on the streets violating emergency rules on the day when Sheikh Hasina was released from jail. The popular sentiment thus expressed indicated that the people are eager to live in a democratic atmosphere they lost in January last year.
   However, Begum Zia made her stand clear more than once that she would not accept any condition whatsoever for her release and that she would stay back home as she was convinced that medical experts for her treatment were available in the country. But home ministry adviser Maj Gen (retd) MA Matin, while insisting on her appeal to the CG for her release, perhaps knowingly suppresses the fact that in a similar instance earlier the CG unconditionally freed three Dhaka University teachers, tried and punished in a sedition case, when they had declined to seek mercy. So some analysts tend to believe that the way the CG -- which is referring to the example of how Sheikh Hasina was released through the process in pursuance of appeal on her behalf -- is unfair.
   In the case of Tariq, the situation seems to be more complex. The CG strategists are learnt to have a split opinion on his release as he was focused as one of the main wrongdoers in politics in the anti-corruption drive. While his condition has seriously deteriorated in the government custody, his mother and lawyers claimed that it all happened because he was subjected to inhuman physical torture during interrogation by the joint forces. The CG strategists who are opposed to his release and treatment abroad fear that if the horrific story comes to light somehow through his doctors it will backfire, further damaging the image and credibility of the caretaker regime. If release of Tariq remains unsettled and Begum Zia remains determined to make it a precondition for her own release, the situation that is likely to arise eventually may put the government in a defensive position and the country's politics in chaos. BNP, one of the two major players, will perhaps see the game as a new offensive against it.
   Not only that. If the CG fails to maintain political equilibrium, patch up with Awami League alone will not give it the desired dividend. The ongoing pre-election dialogue which the government apparently wants to finish with a positive result may go down in the history as yet another futile exercise as it happened in the past.
   What the government policy-makers, while engaged in such an exercise, should remember is that about 80 per cent of the country's population are associated with the two main political parties, BNP and Awami League. So, if the government is sincere enough to hold a credible national election according to its roadmap, it should not make the release of Begum Zia and her two sons a debatable and lingering issue for reasons which have been created by none but the military-backed government's policy-makers themselves.
   A credible election is possible only when both the major political parties take part in it with full preparations in a level playing field and congenial atmosphere that can be ensured only by lifting the state of emergency.

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People intrigued by Advisers' meeting with her at residence

Mohammad Ali Sattar

Week ending last Thursday was eventful in that it featured the much talked about release of Sheikh Hasina. It did, albeit for a short while, capture the attention of those who distance themselves from politics. The press was rife with news and snippets about her pre and post release situations.
   Many eyebrows were raised; about the rationale behind the extra enthusiasm and protocol practice following her release. Some analysts, while appreciating the government move of setting Sheikh Hasina free keeping the legal cover intact, have expressed reservation about the government's decision to hold the meeting with Hasina at her residence instead of the Chief Advisers office.
   If this is considered a part of the dialogue with political parties, this again should have been held at the government office, not at Sudha Sadan. In fact the dialogue with Awami League is yet to get off. The nine-member AL team for the dialogue was formed later.
   There could be a graceful answer with the government had Hasina and her team members travelled to the CA's office to meet him. It really seemed out of the world when she spoke to the CA over the phone. She flew for London and USA the next morning.
   More astounding was her reception at the Heathrow and later at the US airport. The AL supporters would naturally rejoice and treat this as a great moment meeting the 'freed' leader. According to reports, High Commissioner in London and Ambassador in Washington also met her at the airport. Our Ambassador in Washington had to fly to Boston to greet her. This has raised somr questions about the intention of the government.
   It was generous on part of the government to comply with the needs of the hour. To many the 'strongman' image of the government has bogged down. The air of invincibility is gone. The hard-charging administrative style has also undergone sudden changes. There has been a definite shift in policy. Shifting and conditional issues are gaining prominence. Only a few weeks back it was difficult to imagine the present scenario.
   The politicians have so far found themselves in defensive crouch. For more than a year the corrupts were in the back foot. The reformists have also not been spared. Stalwarts like Jamaat chief Maulana Nizami, reformists Mannan Bhuiyan and Shamsul Islam of BNP were interned after everyone started believing the storm had finally passed. This entire period was of speculation and loud whispers. Talks of reforms hung in the air. If not anything, the minds were certainly undergoing a transition.
   The politicians have lately started flexing their muscles. They are being backed by some of their foreign friends. They are vigorously demanding the civil rights. They are shouting for the democracy that they so long practiced.

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Globalisation of corruption

Fazle Rashid in New York

Doctors without borders. It means doctors can go to any place of the globe to provide medicare to ailing people. Doctors act as samaritans. It is corruption sans border now. Corruption has spilled all over the world. It is pervasive and pandemic. Corruption has not spared even venerable institutions like the UN, and World Bank. It is globalisation of corruption now.
   
   Stolen by ex-Treasurer
   The Republican Party in the United States which has been in control over the White House and of the Congress until last November, found that the ex-Treasurer has stolen $725,000 from the party fund. Former Treasurer Christopher Ward had fabricated financial statements to hide the missing money. It remained undetected until January this year. Ward's duty was to oversee the party fund running to $360 million. He also directed the collection and distribution of fund.
   Ward's pay was $120,000 a year. He made $10,000 a year as treasurer for president's dinner committee. He also served as treasurer for more than 80 Republican candidates, many of whom complained that the money was missing. Thefts are both embarrassing and painful for the committee which has been struggling to raise money for what is expected to be a tough year for the Republican House candidates.
   According to recent federal findings Republican Party has a mere $6.7 million in cash on hand in contrast to its Democratic counterpart having $45 million, NYT reported recently. FBI has swung into action and is investigating Ward's actions.
   Ward took money from campaign committee and passed it through a number of other committees before depositing it in his own account. No criminal charge has been filed against Ward. His lawyers refused to comment at this stage of investigation. Ward had used the stolen money to remodel and refurbish his house.
   
   Aid to Afghanistan
   The donors who pledged $20 billion in aid to Afghanistan to rebuild the ravaged infrastructure are skeptical about how the money would be spent. The donors will make sure that the government in Kabul was doing all that it could do with that money being spent for the purpose it was given and not slipping into the pockets of warlords and government officials. First Lady Laura Bush was in Afghanistan recently. She called upon international donors to 'reaffirm our commitment' to Afghanistan's success and showed slides from her trip to assembled leaders including Afghan President Hamid Karzai and UN chief Man Ki-moon. The WB and ADB have pledged $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion over the next five years. France has promised to double its pledge to $165 million. Karzai who is fond of showmanship has threatened to invade Pakistan to dismantle the sanctuaries of the Talebans who frequently attack Afghanistan.
   Pakistan responded saying the border is porous, so it is not possible to prevent people from crossing even if Pakistan puts its entire army along the border.
   Shame for NATO
   Karzai did not mention anything about the jailbreak in which thousands of Talebans made good their escape. It was a huge embarrassment for the NATO forces as well which often say "Pakistan is not doing enough to prevent the insurgency".

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Budget: Bureaucracy fails to achieve ADP targets

Faruque Ahmed

The budget has been described variously as pro-poor in a volatile market, business-friendly promoting domestic investment and supportive of agriculture and rural development; but observers wonder how 30 per cent deficit financing of a Taka trillion expenditure outlays will be practicable.
   The revenue expenditure in the budget has been estimated at Taka 74,362 crore against Taka 69,382 crore revenue receipt showing almost Taka 5,000 crore shortfall to finance the revenue expenditure. Experience shows revenue receipt always remains short of the target almost every year, meaning the budget revenue deficit may be bigger.
   This situation is comparable to then Gen. Ershad regime when let alone ADP, even part of the revenue budget was funded with external assistance. But observers say expecting such a situation may be wrong.
   Moreover, for a developing nation of 140 million people Taka 25,600 annual development (ADP) budget is quite small in the first place and with a possible implementation shortfall it may make it even smaller. In fact, in the recent years, the ADP is only getting smaller and stayed below Taka 20,000 crore in real terms. On the top of it, this year's ADP in terms of real purchasing power may stand close to Taka 15,000 crore which can barely finance a Padma bridge if all other development activities are suspended.
   The finance adviser has admitted that this year's ADP is Taka 10,000 crore smaller than last year's original ADP in one hand and the revenue budget is Taka 20,000 crore bigger on another, showing the trade off between the development expenditure to support ever growing revenue expenditure.
   Finance adviser Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam however, maintained that a smaller ADP is not the point, here the execution of the ADP is the real issue and he prepared it from such a realistic point of view.
   Discussants at a seminar last week were quite critical of the declining size of the ADP and particularly the failure of the bureaucracy to achieve ADP targets. A discussant said the bureaucracy and its revenue expenditure are ever expanding and yet it is a shame they can not implement government programmes. He wondered why the public should pay them if they prove to be failures.
   Besides, as the finance adviser said, in this year's budget he has widened and deepened the social safety net to help out the vulnerable group of people. He has proposed an allocation of Taka 16,932 crore under different support schemes along with another sum of Taka 13,648 crore against subsidy. This together makes Taka 30,370 crore, which looks like state funded charity without promoting productivity.
   Critics say there is no doubt the budget should provide security umbrella to the vulnerable, transfer some buying power to the poor but such huge expenditure on social security and subsidy may turn out counter-productive at the end unless strictly monitored and effectively utilised. The nation should be careful so that some lazy people living on state money are not trapped into a safety net syndrome.
   A grant of Taka 300 to 400 per month to a widow or an increase of Taka 50 to 100 per person per month, as the budget has proposed, may not bring a great leap in the life of the poor, affected by terrible market position. Nonetheless, they need it. But this money together with subsidy is so huge that it can bring serious disruption to macro-economic balance and aggravate inflationary pressures.
   Experts say when such expenditure remains inevitable for the time being, the government should try to devise working mechanism to relate such security grants to some kind of productive activities so that they bring some benefits to the nation and at the same time it does not result in high inflation at the end. Moreover, wastage and corruption in the disbursement need to be stopped. Another point also needs to be mentioned: Will the government be able to mobilise and effectively distribute the total money or much of it will remain a political rhetoric.
   The creation of an 'employment generation scheme' for 20 lakh poor workers annually at a cost of Taka 2,000 crore is a good step in the budget. The budget has also allocation for development of char livelihood programme and some such innovative approach, besides usual test relief and food for work programmes, especially recently designed for the Monga-affected regions. .
   Many wonder if the finance adviser finds it easier to transfer state money to the poor as a compromise to leave the ugly market situation untouched. Critics say that in the process he has totally surrendered to market syndicates. The budget has made a modest attempt to create a rice reserve of about 30 lakhs tonnes to use much of it in market intervention through various OMS programmes retaining 10 lakh tonnes as permanent reserves.
   The budget could make similar attempt in case of some other essentials such as onion, lentils, sugar and edible oil. For that, the budget could make appropriate allocation for the TCB along with measures to strengthen it in one hand and moving its network down to the districts and below on the other along with spreading the BDR shopping window elsewhere. This budget is missing any serious attempt in this regard.
   This being the election year, the budget has the biggest problem relating to its ownership. Those presented it may not see the last of it and the political parties which may takeover after December election have totally rejected the budget. So who will take the risk and responsibility to ensure the collection of resources and proper utilisation of the trillion Taka budget in an election year.
   Using public money in road show programmes like 'Esho Desh Gori', which looks more like a political programme of certain quarters, is unjustified. The accountability issue will thus remain the biggest challenge to this budget when it is not having any development framework like a five-year plan, let alone to speak of a 20-year perspective plan.

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Current account surplus likely to end

Asjadul Kibria

For the last couple of years, Bangladesh has been successfully maintaining current account surplus mainly duet to robust growth of remittance. Thus, widening trade gap on merchandise and services has been significantly offset by the remittance inflow. But the comfort level of current account, reflecting the country's regular transaction with the rest of the world, is already started to erode.
   In fact, the proposed budget for FY09 leads one to apprehend that the era of current account surplus will come to an end. If this angst realized in near future, in the upcoming fiscal year, the country has to struggle with twin deficit problem, which is neither desirable nor painless.
   The central bank data showed that current account posted a surplus worth $390 million during July-March period of FY08 against the surplus of $605 million during the same period of FY07. The next fiscal year is set to ride on huge budget deficit worth Tk 30,580 crore of which 80 percent is to be financed through external and internal borrowing. Of these, bank borrowing has the higher share with the risk of crowding out the private sector although the finance adviser has differed with such view. 'I do not think the increase in bank borrowing will be a serious problem for the private sector,' he said at a post-budget dialogue on Tuesday in Dhaka.
   But the reality is unlikely to be as easy as he claims. Different trade bodies have also expressed their concern on government borrowing plan. They said that increased bank loans by the government would push the lending rates prompting inflation in near future. Thus combating inflation and stimulating output will be a daunting task for the government as well as the central bank.
   Unnayan Onneshan, a local research organization, in it's budget assessment observed, `Economy might be trapped into a double deficit - budget and current account deficit - if the fiscal and monetary imbalances lead to an external imbalance through creating pressure on the exchange rate, which is more likely.'
   Usually, an economy is deemed to have twin deficit or double deficit if it has a current account deficit as well as a fiscal deficit. In effect, the economy is allowing claims on domestic assets to foreigners in exchange for foreign-made goods. Traditional macroeconomics predictions suggest that persistent double deficits will lead to currency depreciation that can be severe and sudden.
   So far, however, local currency has remained stable against the greenback. The central bank data showed that exchange rate of Taka per US$ decreased to Tk 68.54 at the end of May, 2008 from Tk 68.80 at the end of June, 2007. Thus, Taka appreciated by 0.37 percent as of end May, 2008 over end June, 2007.
   But pressure on import payment is accelerating due to global price hike in different commodities including fuel. During the first nine months of FY08, import payments increased by 23.88 percent to $15.50 billion, which was $12.51 billion during the same period last fiscal. Fuel price has already reached $140 per barrel and there is no sign of downward trend in near future.
   Moreover, government has to repay substantial amount on account of previous borrowing. This will create additional pressure on foreign exchange reserve. Coupled with higher import payments, there will be higher outflow of foreign exchange thus turning current account into a negative balance.
   So, a 'twin deficit' will be unavoidable in the next fiscal year. It was in FY05 when current account recorded a deficit (negative balance) worth $ 557 million last time. In FY06 and FY07, current account posted higher surplus worth $824 million and $952 million respectively.

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Two lakh - strong Islamabad rally evaporates at dawn

Jonaid Iqbal in Islamabad

About 200,000 people joined the long march in support of the restoration of judges who were dismissed by President Pervez Musharraf, which has become a hot political issue in the country since.
   March 9, 2007.
   The rally held on the ground near the Parliament House continued all night until 4 a.m. in the morning when all on a sudden it seemingly evaporated. No one could explain why the rally melted and where did the people disappear to. No one has been able to solve the mystery, and no one talks about it.
   One guess is that even Nawaz Sharif who was hype on the restoration of the Judges suddenly become quiet.
   Rallies, demonstrations, protests have continued all though the year, and the problems came near a solution when two top leaders of the winning parties, Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, agreed at Bhurban that judges would be restored through a resolution in the Parliament.
   However, the problem stayed in the public even after two months of the meeting of the Parliament. People's Party co Chairman, Asif Zardari had a draft constitutional package but his government hurried to provide finances for 29 Judges of the Supreme Court, which means that the number of judges would be increased to 29 from 17 as provided in the Constitution. That, too, has become a bone of contention. Number of Parliament and Senate Members, currently debating the budget for the next financial years, have objected to this method of finding solution to a complex issue. The judges of the Lahore Court have also expressed their objection.
   Two rounds of talks were held at Raiwind, Nawaz Sharif's sprawling residence, but they failed to bridge their differences on a possible impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf as well as reinstatement of the deposed judges.
   Meanwhile the nation remains on tenterhooks.

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Walt Disney

K. Z. Islam

The 20th century saw a transformation of our visual experiences comparable to the blossoming of the Renaissance in the 15th century. Creator of one such transformation was Walt Disney (1901-1966). Disney a legend in the world of cartoon animation was not the inventor of this form of entertainment. The originators of the cartoon included Edward Lear and the great cartoonist Tenniel, who drew for Punch and first illustration was Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland. Disney could also take from a huge repertoire of examples in the newspapers - strips known as 'comics'. Disney believed that the first of the animated funnies drawn for the new motion picture industry was made in 1906 by Blackborn and titled Humorous Phases of Funny Faces.
   Disney always felt that animation without sound was dead and that the nature and quality of the sound were the key to success. But initially the sound dimension baffled him. So did lack of capital. The growing movie circuits would buy cartoons only in series of 10 or 12 or 20 believing that moviegoers had to become accustomed to them, and Disney lived from hand to mouth. Five dollars was a lot of money for him. But he contrived to keep abreast of what was a rapidly evolving technology, both in animation and in moving photography.
   Disney's original company, The-O-Gram Corporation made short animation films. There was, however, severe competition in this area.
   It is impossible to exaggerate the need for a producer like Disney to respond quickly to changes in public taste and to the need for novelty. Disney had to adapt and change his cartooning. "The east" reported that audiences were tiring of Alice, and indeed of animation plus photography. They wanted a "new character." Disney invented a rabbit called Oswald, who was all cartoon, with long ears, long feet, and a little knob of a tail. Live action and real people were eliminated, and Disney's output remained homogeneous for a long time. Oswald was a success, but Disney found that once his shorts acquired a reputation, other studios, bigger and with more capital, tried to raid his staff and steal his animators by offering them more money. He could frustrate this process by inventing new characters, rather as, nearly a hundred years before, Charles Dickens defeated pirates, before the age of copyright, by conceiving a new story and writing it fast.
   The result was a mouse. Disney said that in Kansas City a mouse had lived in or on his desk and he had become fond of it and recognized its possibilities for affectionate animation. Disney said he sometimes caught mice in his wastepaper basket, where they fed on bits of candy wrappers, and that he put them in a cage on his desk so he could study their movements. He became especially fond of one specimen, and when he left Kansas City for Hollywood he carried this mouse into a field and released him. He had called the mouse Mortimer, so when he decided to feature a mouse series, he chose the name Mortimer Mouse. But his wife, Lilly, objected: "Too sissy." That was when Disney picked Mickey. The essence of Mickey Mouse was that he inspired affection, just as the mouse on Disney's desk had "won my stony heart," as he put it. Disney produced a mouse animated by admiration of its antics, and even by love. It is significant that Mickey Mouse, in the year of his greatest popularity, 1933, received over 800,000 fan letters, the largest ever recorded in show business, at any time in any century. (The next largest figure was the 730,000 letters Shirley Temple received in 1936.)

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Real romance with robot possible in 40 years

Alix Rijckaert

Romantic human-robot relationships are no longer the stuff of science fiction-researchers expect them to become reality within four decades.
   And they do not mean simply, mechanical sex.
   "I am talking about loving relationships about 40 years from now," David Levy, author of the book "Love + sex with robots," said at an international conference held earlier in June at the University of Maastricht in the south-east of Netherlands.
   "... when there are robots that have also emotions, personality, consciousness. They can talk to you, they can make you laugh. They can ... say they love you just like a human would say 'I love you', and say it as though they mean it ..."
   Robots as sex toys should already be on the market within five years, predicted Levy, "a sort of an upgrade of the sex dolls on sale now".
   These would have electronic speech and sensors that make them utter "nice sounds" when a human caresses their "erogenous zones".
   But to build robots as real partners would take a bit longer, with conversation skills being the main obstacle for developers.
   Scientists were working on artificial personality, emotion and consciousness, said Levy, and some robots already appear lifelike.
   "But for loving relationships-that is something completely different. In loving relationships there are many more things that are important. And the most difficult of all is conversation.
   "You want your robot to be able to talk to you about what is interesting to you. You want a partner who has some similar interest to you, who talks to you in a manner that pleases you, who has a similar sense of humour to you."
   The field of human-computer conversation is crucial to building robots with whom humans could fall in love, but is lagging behind other areas of development, said the author.
   "I am sure it will (happen.) In 40 years ... perhaps sooner. You will find robots, conversation partners, that will talk to you and you will get as much pleasure from it as talking to another human. I am sure of it."
   Levy's bombshell thesis, whose publication has had a ripple-effect way beyond the scientific community, gives rise to a number of complicated ethical and relationship questions.
   British scholar Dylan Evans pointed out the paradox inherent to any relationship with a robot.
   "What is absolutely crucial to the sentiment of love, is the belief that the love is neither unconditional nor eternal.
   "Robots cannot choose you, they cannot reject you. That could become very boring, and one can imagine the human becoming cruel against his defenceless partner", said Evans.
   A robot could conceivably be programmed with a will of its own and the ability to reject his human partner, he said, "but that would be a very difficult robot to sell".
   Some warn against being overhasty.
   "Let us not exaggerate the possibilities!" said Dutch researcher Vincent Wiegel of the Technological University of the eastern town of Delft.
   "Today, the artificial intelligence we are able to create is that of a child of one year of age."
   But Levy is unyielding. He is convinced it will happen, and predicts many societal benefits.
   "There are many millions of people in the world who have nobody. They might be shy or they might have some psychological hang-ups or psycho-sexual hang-ups, they might have personality problems, they might be ugly ...
   "There will always be many millions of people who cannot make normal satisfactory relationships with humans, and for them the choice is not: 'would I prefer a relationship with a human or would I prefer a relationship with a robot?'-the choice is no relationship at all or a relationship with a robot."
   They might even become human-to-human relationship savers, he predicted.
   "Certainly there will be some existing human-human relationships where one partner might say to the other partner: 'if you have sex with a robot I'm leaving you'.
   "There will be others who say: 'when you go on your business trip please take your robot because I happen to worry about the red light district'."
   - Courtesy: International Herald Tribune

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