POST-BALI ROAD TO COPENHAGEN

Climate change should be mainstreamed into national development programmes Quamrul Islam Chowdhury

In the Bali-run up as well as in the post-Bali, climate change has been on the forefront both at national and global levels, though it is yet to be mainstreamed into national development programmes, poverty reduction strategy and sectoral plans locally and UN inter-agency and donor sponsored socio-economic-environmental projects across the globe. Against that backdrop, UN General Assembly president Srgian Kerim has convened a high-level thematic debate at UN Headquarters at New York from February 11-12 to take stock of Bali Road Map and to consider how the UN system in partnership with member states, the private sector, civil society, parliaments and the media can most effectively tackle climate change. " We have to create synergies in order to support the process of negotiations within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)," says UNGA president Srgian Kerim.
   With the release of IPCC fourth assessment report in last September, climate change is now a reality. And scientists warned that vulnerability due to climate change was a major issue for developing countries and LDCs. Recognizing the scale and magnitude of increasing vulnerabilities of the poorer nations and poorer people of those countries, UNGA also held a special session in September 2007 on climate change attended by various heads of government including Bangladesh chief adviser Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed. The UNGA climate change session considered four themes. These included mitigation i.e., measures to lower or stabilise green house gas emissions such as those of carbon di-oxide (mainly due to fossil fuel burning for electricity generation, transport, industrial processes such as cement production), methane produced due to wet rice production, and livestock management and others such as nitrous oxide. Adaptation to issue of technology transfer featured prominently as well as that of financing mechanism for these activities. Bangladesh, being one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, co-chaired the UN session on Adaptation.
   
   Global temperature
   According to IPCC fourth assessment report, the global mean temperature has risen by an average of 0.740 C over 1906-2005. The oceans has been absorbing more than 80 per cent of the heat added to the climate system making the sea water to expand and thus lead to sea level rise. Global average sea level rose at an average of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 - 2003. Over 1993 - 2003, the rate of rise was much faster, about 3.1 mm per year.
   Why do we see these temperature and sea level changes? Almost certainly this is due to human activities giving rise mainly to emission of carbon di-oxide related to fossil fuel use, and relatively less to deforestation; and methane emission mainly due to wet agriculture. Other gases also contribute a little. But on the whole it is CO2 emission due to fossil fuel burning for transport, power generation and use and certain industrial processes (e.g., cement production) which is the main cause behind the present observed rise in temperature through the so called green house gas effect.
   Unless these emissions from anthropogenic sources are curbed significantly, the average temperature may rise anywhere between an average of 1.8 to 4.0 0 C. The corresponding rise in the mean sea level may be from 0.18 to 0.59 metres. As it happens, the climatic uncertainties will make their presence felt much before that and, indeed these have already begun to do so.
   
   Adverse impact
   Economists now foresee the adverse impact of climate change across many sectors and economy and may drastically alter the livelihood prospects of many, mostly the poor and those in the poor countries. Just to reiterate the adverse impacts will be on agricultural production and food security, water resources scarcity, uncertainties and extreme events such as floods and cyclones, increased health hazard, and of course permanent inundation of vast stretches of land from sea level rise and consequent problem of environmental refugees. Bangladesh is one of the prime candidates of such unenviable future. Question is how can these be prevented?
   Whether adaptation or mitigation or both? Two ways of action are open to human kind. Adapt to the impacts of climate change, and mitigate i.e., stop/lower emission of green house gases the prime cause of which is fossil fuel burning. At Rio Earth Summit, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992 and later ratified by most countries to find out a global means for doing just that. In 1997, the landmark Kyoto Protocol was announced for mitigation through various means. But it took several years to enter into force as big emitters were hesitant to sign. In the mean time the KP also included adaptation as a mechanism to combat climate change.
   would put a stop to the dithering by certain countries including USA, India, China and Brazil and chart a Road Map for deep emission cuts beyond 2012, the last target date under Kyoto Protocol. Also, the supporting mechanisms of finance and technology transfer would be firmed up. The IPCC fourth assessment report provided the technical underpinning of the negotiations for emission cuts as well as adaptation needs due to the impending and already occurring vulnerabilities.
   Rising to the expectation of the nation to go Bali with a vision and homework, a multi-sectoral committee was formed to prepare a detailed briefing document for Bangladesh delegation consisting of experts from government, non-government, research and academic institutions and NGOs in September 2007. The expert committee developed draft interventions for Bangladesh on all key agenda item, analysing country situation, vis-à-vis the LDC and G77 positions and previous interventions made by Bangladesh on various agenda items. All these were reviewed at the meeting chaired by the Secretary, MoEF with sectoral representatives in presence of Environment Adviser Dr C S Karim who approved the final brief.
   The Bangladesh delegation was composed of persons who had been involved in climate change negotiations or research or advocacy over a long time. The Initial segment was led by Environment Secretary AHM Rezaul Kabir while the high level segment was led by Permanent Representative (PR) of Bangladesh in UN in New York Ismat Jahan in absence of the Environment Adviser because of his inability to join Bali conference due to unavoidable circumstances.
   Bangladesh had taken an active part in the negotiations. While Maldives due to an earlier arrangement gave the statement on behalf of the LDCs, it is in fact Bangladesh which had negotiated in most of the cases on behalf of LDCs. In particular Bangladesh was the coordinator for the LDCs to negotiate the Adaptation Fund and the formation of a Board to manage the Fund. Three proposals were made by Bangladesh, namely, direct and fast access to the fund, reserved seat for LDCs in the Adaptation Fund Board and an independent secretariat. The first two has been accepted. The third one was a compromise in that the GEF which so far had been handling such funds on behalf of the World Bank has been given an interim responsibility for three years.
   Bangladesh gave a clear call during the High Level segment for immediate adaptation needs in view of the frequent climate related natural disasters as well as deep emission cuts and a new and additional financing for these activities by the developing countries including the LDCs. Adviser Dr C S Karim, experts Dr M Asaduzzaman, Dr Rezaul Karim, Dr Atiq A Rahman, Dr Saleemul Haq and Dr Ainun Nishat played important role in drafting and finalizing the Bangladesh statements. Bangladesh was the only LDC in the High level segment negotiations- at dialogue, AWG and Bali Road Map. Mohammad Reazuddin of DoE, Dr Rezaul Karim, a former UNESCAP environment chief, Dr Hamid Rashid, DG of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and this writer were in the high level negotiations. In view of Bangladesh contribution to the long negotiation process it was included as a member of the "Friends of Chair" to assist the Chair to finalise post-Kyoto negotiations. The outcomes of all these activities by Bangladesh had been very positive as evident from the acceptance of the Chair of G77 that principle of common but differentiated responsibility should also be applied in case of emission cuts by developing countries and LDCs, a proposition which one of our neighbours also tried to block.
   Bangladesh arranged a side event where PR Ismat Jahan made introductory remarks followed by a video presentation on Sidr and its impact to a packed audience of around 100 guests. A question and answer session followed. Dr Rezaul Karim, Dr M Asaduzzaman, Dr Atiq A Rahman, Qamar Munir and other members of the delegation worked very hard to make it happen. Bangladesh delegation members and experts replied to the various questions raised by the guests.
   Senator Kerry of USA invited Bangladesh to a meeting. Bangladesh expert Dr Ainun Nishat made pleas for assisting Bangladesh in several ways including helping in early and long-range forecasting of weather so that the country may better prepare itself against disasters. Senator Kerry promised to look into the matter and indeed expressed hope to deepen relationship with Bangladesh if his party (Democratic Party) comes to power in 2008.
   The EU and Bangladesh had a very productive meeting requested by EU. Environment Ministry joint secretary Qamar Munir, Dr Asad, Dr Nishat, Dr Karim and myself took part in that meeting. The EU expressed its wishes to help Bangladesh in the global negotiations process by providing capacity building assistance. The EU expressed support for an Adaptation Centre in principle, but advised that it be started small and with networking to begin with. With growing experience, its scope and activities may be enlarged and assistance may be sought from various sources.
   Bangladesh also participated the meeting between GEF CEO and LDC Group. Mohammad Reazuddin of Bangladesh urged the GEF to simplify Resource Allocation Framework.
   Bangladesh nominee Qamar Munir has been elected as an alternative member to the 'Adaptation Fund Board' as recognition to its contribution to the negotiation on 'Adaptation Fund'.
   As a long time member of the Bangladesh delegation, myself was also elected as a full member to the Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee where a senior Chinese delegate was chosen as an alternate member.
   Bangladesh also got its re-election in two other committees, Mirza Shawkat Ali as a member of the Least developed countries expert group (LDC expert group) and Dr Ainun Nishat as an alternate member of Compliance Committee to the Kyoto Protocol- all because of the collective effort of the entire delegation of Bangladesh.
   Most of the Bangladesh delegation members had really been busy at Bali in negotiations, lobbying and parleys. Some even could not sleep for the last couple of nights as the hectic negotiations took a very steep course. Right after coming back from Bali of the delegation for the High Level segment, a debriefing session was arranged for the Environment Adviser where a detailed discussion took place, particularly in relation to the Bali Action Plan and the activities for the next two years upto the COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009 by which time negotiations for both adaptation and mitigation have to be completed. This time Bangladesh will also has to cut its emission and thus its obligations has got extended. Later the press briefing made by Dr C S Karim at PID had highlighted the achievements of Bangladesh at Bali as well as cleared some confusion.
   For Bangladesh as well as for the global village, next two years are very crucial because during this period negotiations have to be carried out on four fronts for firming up several issues. First, with the USA and other big developing country emitters being on board for emission cuts but with no targets yet, a lot of diplomatic and persuasive capacity would be needed leveraged by scientific facts to ensure deeper global cuts and by developed countries while the developing ones would also have to take a commensurate share.
   Bangladesh must ensure that it is not inordinately obligated to do more than its due, this needs to be firmed up through discussion and exchange of ideas domestically, a task which had never been done although earlier studies such as ALGAS has identified areas where energy efficiency may be raised to lower emission at the least cost, this needs to be revisited in the light of present situation. In any case political directions would be required based on the technical findings and studies.
   Adaptation must be given top priority as even total emission bans will continue to destablise the climate for next 100 years or so. Here too, while there is a National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA), this needs to be updated and extended to cover all potentially affected sectors. How supportive activities such as technology transfer and financing of the activities may take place needs now serious attention. What each country intends to do must be submitted to the UNFCCC by February 21 next. Bangladesh must join the UNGA called Ministerial level meeting at New York from February 11-12 to discuss how climate actions may be integrated in various sectors. Adviser Dr C S Karim should put forward our Action Plan as well as argue our approach in the UNGA forthcoming high level roundtable.
   A high-powered secretary level committee composed all ministries which are relevant in any of the four categories of themes (mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer and financing) have been formed with the Environment Advisor as the Chair. Technical backstopping to the Core Committee will be provided by five Technical Working Groups on the same themes chaired and co-chaired by relevant experts and government officials. It is hoped the TWGs will immediately prepare a Action Plan for Bangladesh for the next two years which should be vetted by the Core Committee based on inputs also from the deliberations in the 11-12 February UNGA high-level debate.
   Given the urgency of the matter as well as its long-term implications for Bangladesh, it is now essential that the Bangladesh position be supported and approved at the highest political level. It is hoped that this highest level political commitment endorsed by the just Sidr-hit nation should be reflected in immediate budgetary provisions and logistics support to the TWGs and the Core Committee for formulation of both adaptation and mitigation plans followed by the implementation of those programmes on an urgent and immediate basis. Establishment of a National Adaptation Centre for research and training on adaptation in various sectors as well as their planning is another urgent need for Bangladesh to fight climate change.
   Mainstreaming of climate change issues in all development activities and programmes, particularly those which are likely to be most involved in mitigation such as energy and power, forestry, agriculture and livestock, and urban waste management; in adaptation such as water resources, agriculture, industry, infrastructure, food security and disaster management, health, women and children, trade, poverty alleviation and PRS. Identification of short, medium and long term adaptation needs in different sectors should be fleshed out. Identification of cost-effective mitigation options including active participation in carbon market is also necessary. Formulation of National Action Plans in the light of approved Bali Action Plan on -Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology transfer; and Financing mechanism should be the priority.
   Updating of existing NAPA (National Adaptation Plan of Action) and preparation of Mitigation Plan, development of institutional capacity and human resources including those for implementation at the local level, sensitization of policy makers and inter-ministerial coordination, enhancing awareness among the general public through active collaboration with media and the IT, regular budgetary resource planning and mobilisation - internal and external through various means for both adaptation and mitigation as well as for supportive activities such as technology transfer and capacity building. It is essential because, while adaptation will be important for our survival, the need for mitigation necessitates energy planning in a cost-effective and GHG limiting manner which may change our development path and priorities. Such a huge task can not be done in an ad hoc manner and needs regular budgetary support. There may be other issues which may be apparent only when we sit down at the drawing board. We also suggest that this be done in an interactive and transparent manner. For this to happen, we immediately intend to set up a web site for informing the general public as well as get feed back from all stakeholders.
   Henceforth Bangladesh should participate in all international, regional and sub-regional negotiations and knowledge sharing meetings on climate change side by side raising our national capacities from home-grown experiences. We have to remember that we should pursue, a knowledge-based environmental diplomacy.

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