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Polls without change in mindset can impel bloody rivalry
Sadeq Khan
Several Western diplomats and visiting dignitaries in Dhaka, including the US principal deputy assistant secretary of state, have publicly emphasised the desirability of having general elections as soon as possible in Bangladesh, so that a representative government may take charge of the affairs of the state. By making such public statements, they have professedly served their interest in and commitment to democracy and to a globalising process under the post-Cold War matrix.
At the same time they have indeed echoed a strong body of opinion in the political establishment of Bangladesh itself. There is also an equally strong, if not stronger, contrary opinion particularly at the grassroots level that general election without a fundamental change in the structure and mindset of the political establishment will not be meaningful. Contrary opinion holds that vested interest of members of the political establishment in their respective parties and positions will sustain, and virulent culture of dirty tricks and coercive practices in the power game will rebound more vigorously if general election is held without adequate enforceable enactments and instutionalised watchdogs.
Indeed many people feel there will be revenge killings, bloody clashes and all-round chaos once the emergency is lifted. No socio-political alternative force has emerged in more than one year of suspension of outdoor political activity. Penal measures against politico-bureaucratic (and economic) malpractice in high places have not yet overcome legal challenges. Nor have any effective safeguards been introduced institutionally or constitutionally that may be able to prevent return with vengeance of the "old style political mafia" and their evil ways.
The old political lobby who demand immediate withdrawal of emergency suggest that no reform can succeed under emergency restrictions. They cite the example of peaceful conditions physically sustaining since August 2007 varsity incidents notwithstanding the verbal violence of heated rhetoric habitually employed by politicians (and intellectuals) in this country. Advocates of immediate recourse to general election say, the political establishment has learnt its lessons, and would behave. If they do not abide by the electoral code of conduct as worked out by the Election Commission after due consultations, they stand to lose the electoral game, and legitimacy.
And if they resort to clashes, subversion and violence making it impossible to hold free and fair general election, the President under caretaker provisions will continue to have the option to clamp down again, re-impose emergency or declare Martial Law, and take steps under the doctrine of necessity. The contrary group suggests that this is only the lull before a strom for which rabble-rousers are being quietly readied by the "old political mafia". Brisk preparations are covertly going on to re-enact the student-teacher unrest drama of last August. The clamours for political dialogue or feigned adherence to emergency restrictions by the book, some brinkmanship exercises apart, are simply eye-wash. The real intention is to stage a "fitting reply" to the "political earthquake" that was engineered by the caretaker administration under emergency rules. A covert campaign ridiculing the "military-backed caretaker regime" has already started. "Foreign-brokered understanding to guarantee the "safe exit" of the emergency regime players with the old political establishment will not be worth the paper it is written on.
James F. Moriarty, Ambassador-designate of the United States appeared in a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Building on February 6 for being confirmed as new US Ambassador for Bangladesh.
Moriarty referred to the August troubles of the Caretaker Government in Bangladesh and said: "Under the State of Emergency, the Bangladesh government placed on freedom of expression and the right to engage in political activity. In August 2007, the Caretaker Government received a jarring wake-up call when the country erupted in violent protests. The government, with the strong support of the military, quickly restored order by imposing a curfew in the areas hit by rioting. But the demonstrations showed what can happen when legitimate means of expressing grievances are unavailable."
Before and after the protests, the US had routinely urged Bangladesh's Caretaker Government to lift the restrictions on basic rights. Moriarty informed the Senate Committee that on September 9, 2007, Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed announced a partial relaxation of the ban on political activity. The US has welcomed this announcement and urged the Caretaker Government to move as quickly as possible to take additional steps to restore civic freedoms and democracy. In particular, the US has called upon Bangladesh's Caretaker Government to adhere to the electoral roadmap it announced in July last year. The roadmap promises national elections by the end of 2008.
"I am heartened by indications that the electoral roadmap remains on track," he said.
Referring to the Chief Adviser's address to the nation on January 11 last, Moriarty, previously US Ambassador to Nepal, said the Chief Adviser reiterated his commitment to hold elections that will restore, not replace, Bangladesh's democracy.
Moriarty said the US interests in Bangladesh revolve around three, inter-twined "d's": democracy, development, and denial of space to terrorism. The seventh-most populous country in the world, Bangladesh is overwhelmingly Muslim and has in the recent past been grindingly poor.
Ambassador Moriarty mentioned about the "long and admirable history of tolerance" of Bangladesh. He recalled, however, that the country became a target of extremists in recent years. "Poverty and political turmoil have provided some space for terrorists. Home-grown terrorists, called the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) simultaneously exploded over 400 small bombs throughout the country in August 2005, and shortly thereafter, the JMB embarked on a terror campaign of suicide attacks against judges, other prominent figures, and crowded markets. The subsequent execution of six JMB leaders appears to have left the terrorist organisation on run."
The Ambassador-designate said Bangladesh is committed to partnership with the United States in the Global War on Terror, and the vast majority of Bangladesh's citizens appear to have little sympathy for the terrorists. The Caretaker Government has identified counterterrorism as a top priority and has actively pursued extremists. Over the years, Moriarty said, the people of Bangladesh have overcome many daunting obstacles in their search for better lives. "I feel strongly that it is in the US national interest to work with them to help build a Bangladesh where democracy flourishes, where no child goes to bed hungry, and where no terrorist can find safe haven. If confirmed, I will work closely with Congress in pursuit of these goals."
On the political side, he said, reformers within Bangladesh's major political parties are pushing to democratise the parties. The Caretaker Government has also responded positively to the parties' call for dialogue.
"While these are ultimately matters for the Bangladesh people to decide, the US is actively following these developments. We also continue to monitor the court cases brought against those detained during the State of Emergency, including the two former prime ministers. The US, along with like-minded partners, has advised Bangladesh's Caretaker Government that it must meet international standards for due process, transparency and respect for human rights in all cases."
The US Ambassador-designate's friendly assessment of the Bangladesh situation will certainly ring a sympathetic bell with the average Bangladeshi. He has limited US interest in the court cases brought under Emergency Rules against luminaries including the two former Prime Ministers to standards of "due process, transparency and human rights." He has also expressly put his hopes on "the reformers within Bangladeshi's major political parties" and "the parties' call for dialogue" with the Caretaker Government.
That dialogue, though, has yet to take a clear and credible shape.
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DISCRIMINATORY TARIFF ON RAW MATERIAL BLAMED
Soaring steel price hits construction sector
Faruque Ahmed
The country's fledging steel industry is facing severe crisis from soaring prices of imported scraps and sponge iron in one hand and discriminatory tariff structures on the other.
The local steel industry is now worth around of US$1 billion according to some estimates but the Government appears to be quite indifferent to provide it necessary support to grow and become competitive.
Rather the industry sources blame the authorities for playing questionable role in the hand of certain vested interest groups. Bangladesh Steel Mills Owners Association (BSMOA) and the Bangladesh Re-rolling Mills Association (BRMA) leaders are of the view that the Government is giving greater advantages to a handful of ship breakers supplying part of the raw materials to the iron re-rolling mills and other steel making plants.
On the other hand the majority steel and re-rolling mills depending on import of melting scraps and sponge iron have been subjected to higher import duty to add to their hardship for reasons not justified at all.
The higher import cost of raw materials added to the growing local manufacturing cost is contributing to escalate the prices of the construction materials. This in turn is slowing down the growth of the real estate and other infrastructure building projects, both in the public and private sectors. They said though primarily many people blame the steel and iron re-rolling mill owners for high profiteering motives behind the escalating prices, the reality stands contrary to it. They said, the industry is only steadily losing buyers and getting supply orders for less and less materials in the face of higher cost that no owner in fact wants at the cost of the industry and the nation.
Secretary general of BRMA Sheikh Shamsul Alam Masud and BSMOA Fazlur Rahman Bakul at a press briefing recently depicted an alarming picture blaming on top the higher import cost. They urged the Government to put in place a sensible support policy including lower import tariff to keep the prices of materials down to continue the nation building activities in the ground.
"It is affecting everything," they said, "from the implementation of the Government development projects to private housing." The Finance Adviser recently spoke of the impact of the high cost of materials as one of the reasons for unprecedented slow down in the execution of the ADP projects. The excessive cost of materials has also sharply slowed down the booking for new apartments in the real estate sector.
Moreover, house building initiatives at the private household level both in the urban and rural sectors are also facing a stand off situation looming large the big question before the nation how to overcome the snags.
Ultimately the problems of the industry has assumed a big problem as to how to keep the government and private sector development activities going and specially keeping the cost of house building at affordable level. And the answer to this problem must come more from the government than the industry owners themselves, the two association leaders said and they prove to be correct.
They broadly identified three kinds of problems. In the first place the soaring prices of scraps and iron sponge is affecting the industry. Secondly, the discriminatory treatment to the mills and factories as a whole against a handful of ship breakers is hurting the industry and thirdly, the high cost of electricity and frequent load shedding is adding disproportionately to the overall cost of the materials.
Information suggests that the cost of melting scraps in the international market has increased from around US$ 250 in January 2006 up to US$500 by January 2008. In the meantime the cost of the re-rolling scraps or sponge iron has increased to US$ 600 recently from US$ 350 dollar in January 2006. The depreciation of the value of taka against dollar has further contributed to the rise of the cost of import and the price of the construction materials to go up in the local market.
This is one side of the problem. Aggravating it further the government has increased the tariff on the import of melting scrap and sponge iron for re-rolling from 5 percent in fiscal 2006 to 07 to 10 per cent under the current fiscal. As a result the import duty on re-rolling scrap may stand up to taka 3,800 per ton. It occurred at a time when the tariff on the import of per ton of ship scrap or vassals remained fixed at Taka 1,000 as it was in the previous year.
Moreover last year the tariff value for VAT assessment was at Taka 1500, 1300 and 2600 respectively for each ton of MS rod, angle, jetbar, flatbar and channel depending on their variable nature. But the authorities this year have raised their tariff value to Taka 3000, 2500 and 5000 respectively, thereby increasing the amount of payable tax to increase the production cost and its prices in the market.
Yet another statistical figure shows the ship breaking industry has raised the price of ship scrap from Taka 29 thousand per ton in January 2006 to Taka 46 thousand recently. Compared to it, the price of imported melting scrap has increased from Taka 21 thousand to Taka 38, thousand over the same period. It means the ship breakers are paying only part of the tariff and VAT that the steel and re-rolling mills are paying against the import of their raw materials in one hand but charging quite higher prices while selling their scraps to local re-rolling mills on the other.
Moreover, the prices of ferro silicon, ferro manganese and such other chemical products used in the steel and the re-rolling mills have skyrocketed over the recent time. It was between Taka 55 thousand and 60 thousand per ton only recently but market report said the prices have sharply moved upward from this month to between Taka 120 thousand and Taka 180 thousand per ton.
Another problem relates to the load shedding. As the load shedding is occurring very frequently, the melting process of the steel and iron faces setback every time as the electricity goes off. They have to start melting again from the beginning thereby putting the electricity bills up to Taka 7 thousand per ton from a business as usual cost of Taka 3 thousand per ton.
Many mills and factories were setting up their own power generator in the situation under a zero-duty provision on import of power generator which the government had put on offer earlier to cope with the failing electricity problem. But the authorities from this year have imposed a 10 per cent duty on the import of power generator thereby bringing setback on the initiative to set up their captive power plant.
The PSI companies are yet another problem instead of ensuring the quality of the imported scrap and other iron sponge. They are totally dishonest although charging one percent fees of the import bills for their service. Dishonest exporters are sending mud, sands and other roots in the consignments and importers are facing severe losses on this account.
The course of events showed that the Government is not acting to address the issues in time and rather creating more problems to the industry than trying to solve the challenges What should be the ideal role of a pro-people government is a big question here now, particularly in a steadily growing economy slowly taking charge to meet demands for construction materials locally.
Critics wonder why the Government is overburdening the industry with financial load at a time when it needs breathing pace to grow and become competitive. The authorities are not allowing it rational import tariff and other benefits as incentives to grow.
It appears that the Government is acting on the anticipation that the steel and re-rolling mils are making enormous profits and it wants to take away that profit instead of tolerating the industry to become viable.
The critics said it is not the question of the steel industry and iron re-rolling mills alone; here the bigger question of providing the nation with construction materials at affordable cost comes to the fore. And to make it possible the government must provide a supportive role and make all possible sacrifice.
They said the nation building efforts require steel and iron materials to construct buildings for housing and big infrastructures, and the exorbitant cost of construction materials will wreck its chances. Here more supportive role is required.
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Is East Timor a liability of Australia?
Barrister Harun ur Rashid
East Timor was a Portuguese colonial territory. In 1975 it became a part of Indonesia. West Timor has been already a part of Indonesia. The population are mostly Catholic (70%) and Portugal and Australia never reconciled with its merger with Indonesia.
In 1999, the then President Habibie of Indonesia surprised the world to hold a referendum on the status of East Timor. Some say this was because Australia's former Prime Minister John Howard irritated impulsive Habibie on the question of East Timor.
There has been a sizeable East Timorese population in Australia who wanted Howard to press on the determination of status of East Timor. Portugal and other Western countries supported the demand of East Timorese.
East Timor was finally became independent through the referendum and a new government was constituted in 2000 and the UN looked after it. Australian forces were invited by the UN and they had a major role in stabilising the situation in East Timor.
On East Timor issue, Indonesia was hurt by Australian attitude and relations never became normal until Australia's Prime Minister John Howard was defeated in the last election in November.
Australia at the behest of the US became a "policeman" in the Pacific area under the conservative Prime Minister Howard. Howard looked great when his policy achieved independence for East Timor from Indonesia.
The question is whether East Timor has turned into a political liability for Australia?
Many say that East Timor should have been an autonomous province of Indonesia and not independent. Its people are very poor, consist of many races and there are 16 indigenous languages. It has become ungovernable.
Timorese politics is more fractured and volatile than ever. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's coalition consists of disparate groupings that are having some difficulty in forging a disciplined and coherent government.
Fretilin the opposition party, is waiting to pounce, hoping for a successful vote of no confidence to topple its arch-rival, Gusmao, and put former Prime Minister Dr. Mari Alkatiri back into office.
Assassination attempt
On 11 February, co-ordinated assassination attempts on East Timor's President and Prime Minister are another sad chapter for Australia's nearest neighbour. The President has been flown to Australia for treatment and he is reported to be in a coma.
President Jose Ramos Horta was shot on his stomach near his house (on Robert Kennedy Boulevard on Dili's eastern outskirts) by supporters of accused murderer and escaped prisoner, Alfredo Reinado. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's car was reportedly attacked after leaving his house.
Reinado was killed in the subsequent fire fight between his supporters and Ramos Horta's Timorese security detachment.
Who is Reinado?
Reinado emerged as a key figure during the civil strife that engulfed the tiny half-island nation following the sacking of 600 members of Timor's army in early 2006 by the former government of Fretilin leader, Mari Alkatiri.
Reinado was subsequently arrested on suspicion of eight murders arising from a confrontation between his forces and the army, which sparked a series of violent clashes and the uprooting of more than 100,000 civilians who fled into displaced persons' camps, where many still reside almost two years later.
There is more than a little irony in the fact that Reinado's attack on Ramos Horta followed the President's concerted efforts to do what Fretilin had refused to do when in government: negotiate with Reinado and the 600 soldiers dismissed by Fretilin.
Indeed, it was Ramos Horta who insisted that the Australian troops stationed in Timor as part of the International Stabilisation Forces should cease their efforts to apprehend Reinado and to bring him to justice.
It was also Ramos Horta who worked tirelessly to broker a negotiated solution to the stand-off with Reinado and to set in train a mediation process between the army (he is commander-in-chief) and the dissident soldiers.
In recent weeks there had been hopeful signs that negotiations, not violence, may resolve the impasse and bring about a long overdue settlement of the dissidents' grievances. Positive meetings had occurred and efforts were being made to bring Reinado into the process.
Reinado's reaction, however, was predictably volatile. During a recent meeting between several government MPs and Reinado at his mountain compound, an Australian unit was fired on by his bodyguard. Although fire was not returned, it indicated growing tension and also that Reinado's notorious mental instability may have been reaching snapping point.
Despite Reinado's repeated declarations that he would participate in a peaceful resolution of the conflict he had also insisted he would not surrender to face a Timorese court, claiming that it could never deliver justice. Given the seriousness of the charges this made it nearly impossible to resolve the dissident soldiers' wider grievances.
No government could indefinitely accept that an accused murderer should evade justice, but progress in the soldiers' case could not be made while the two issues were inextricably linked.
Then last week an unidentified group launched a grenade attack on the camp in Dili where more than 70 of the dissidents had gathered in preparation for a scheduled dialogue aimed at resolving their issues.
Why this outburst?
There is speculation that this and other groups of the sacked soldiers may have broken with Reinado and his hardcore supporters in an effort to make progress with their case. Divisions between the sacked soldiers may have caused Reinado to become desperate to find a way out of his untenable situation.
Reinado's increasing desperation may also have been behind his recent extraordinary media interview, in which he claimed that Gusmao had orchestrated the events that led to the violence in 2006, culminating in Alkatiri's replacement as prime minister by Ramos Horta.
Reinado offered no evidence to substantiate this, but he echoed (and further fed) Fretilin's conspiracy theory that Gusmao had deliberately manipulated the soldiers' grievances to bring about a coup d'etat against the democratically elected government.
The 2006 civil strife resulted in major changes to Timor's power structures. Fretilin had received 55 per cent of the vote in the 2002 election, reflecting its role in the anti-Indonesian struggle.
In last year's presidential election, however, Ramos Horta got almost 70 per cent of the vote against Fretilin's candidate and in the subsequent parliamentary election Gusmao's coalition garnered 51 per cent and a parliamentary majority.
Fretilin refused to accept the outcome and has ever since campaigned against the legitimacy of Gusmao's government, continuing to label him as "de facto" prime minister in the wake of yesterday's assassination plot, a claim that will not assist in calming an extremely volatile situation.
In this effort it has spread slanderous claims that both Gusmao and Ramos Horta were prepared to accommodate Indonesian rule, making them unfit for leadership.
There must be grave fears that Reinado's attempted coup will now spark a new round of violence, especially as there are large quantities of weapons in civilian hands. Calm responses from all sides are clearly called for.
Unity is certainly needed among all parties if Timor is to avoid a downward spiral into the status of failed state.
Australia has to lose if East Timor has become a failed state because it can not distance itself from the politics of the region which it wants to influence. With the new Labour Prime Minister Kevid Rudd in Australia, let us wait and see how Australia deals with the situation.
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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Political deadlock continues
Abdur Rahman Khan
The government's offer for a dialogue as announced by the Chief Adviser Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed in his address to the nation on January 12 is likely to face a deadlock.
Government does not appear to be serious about the dialogue offer. Critics say they are seemingly busy in searching for ways and means to keep the political situation stressful by initiating fresh cases, keeping the political leaders behind the bars and making the judicial process ridiculously difficult. Clearly, it is not helping the government's cause either.
The arrest of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's adviser Brigadier General (retired) ASM Hannan Shah, the fourth time in a year, is the latest instance that makes the citizens realise something of political harassment. The promptness in his arrest immediately after his meeting with Khandaker Delwar Hossain is sure to generate sympathy for the victim with loss of confidence in the governance.
It is a reality that the two ladies, Awami League Chief Sheikh Hasina and BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia now staying behind the bars, are fast regaining popular support and sympathy. Peoples' memory being proverbially short, they are now being led to believe that the two top leaders had nothing to do with the charges of alleged corruption and actually have become the victims of circumstances. The latest High Court rule quashing the extortion case against former prime minister Sheikh Hasina has put the government into further trouble.
The demand for the release of both Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina as being voiced jointly in Chittagong and Dhaka University campuses actually reflect public sentiment and growing sympathy for them. The situation has changed substantially in the last few months and the government policy makers have to be both subtle and cautious in handling the dialogue issue. Attempts should be made to make sure that the growing popular support does not embolden the major political parties to make the release of Khaleda-Hasina as their main demand before holding the dialogue. Dialogue is very important because it would set the pace for the parliamentary election.
Meanwhile, the cacophony of political and electoral reforms in the political parties has diminished and those who echoed the idea to discard the top ladies are now trying to get back into the mainstream. Reformists in BNP have already shown their white flag to negotiate. The situation became embarrassing for them particularly when four senior leaders contradicted in writing the resolutions of the controversial standing committee meeting of October 29.
Additionally, the visit of two reformist Awami League leaders, Suranjit Sen Gupta and Abdur Razzak to India at this critical time has also raised a lot of eyebrows and questions are begging for a clear answer about the Indian involvement in Bangladesh politics.
The recent meeting of Indian High Commissioner with Awami League Acting President Zillur Rahman and BNP Secretary general Khandaker Delwar Hossain, as widely reported in the media, also should not be dismissed as a mere diplomatic courtesy and of no political significance.
The overt concerns of the "development partners", the USA, the UK and the European Commission, are clear as they would not like the emergence of any volatile situation in Bangladesh where their investment would become insecure and Muslim fundamentalists who are waiting in the wings may gain ground.
But the critics also fear that the desire to see the election roadmap implemented on time may suffer due to lack of preparation. The dialogue between the political parties and the Election Commission (EC) is yet to be completed, and while preparation for voters list is progressing well, the question of simultaneous holding of elections to local government bodies are yet to be sorted out.
According to the EC's electoral roadmap announced on July 15 last year, parliamentary election will be held by December and the long overdue polls to upazila parishads in November-December this year. Elections to five of the six city corporations and the municipalities will be held beginning from April and ending before the parliamentary polls.
According to the electoral roadmap, polls to over 4,000 union parishads were supposed to be held this year but the EC later decided not to hold the polls as it might affect preparation for the parliamentary polls. But the EC will have to hold the union parishad polls immediately after the parliamentary election as their tenure will expire by next month.
Meanwhile, the dialogue with the political parties as initiated by the EC in September last is yet to be completed as the matter is pending with the High Court. The writ petition filed by the pro-Khaleda BNP to decide the representation of BNP in the dialogue with the EC is not getting a time for a hearing in the court. The reason is said to be the inclusion of the petition at the end of the cause list that could not be completed last week.
Although the government earlier showed its leanings towards the BNP faction led by Saifur Rahman and Major Hafizuddin by giving them the key to open the party central office at Nayapaltan, the leaders such as retired Major Hafizuddin kept himself away after their first attempt that faced resistance from the other group. Hafiz feels safe to hold his office at his residence.
One can not avoid but to keep a vigilant eye on the non-election issues like soaring prices of essentials, which runs the risks of turning worst while planning for political negotiations or an election escape routes.
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US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Obama faces attack from Clinton, McCain
Moinuddin Naser in New York
Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama, moving into front-runner status following a week of eight straight wins, is facing a new rival, exchanging fire with John McCain, the presumptive Republican (GOP) nominee.
In what could be a preview of the general election, the two exchanged jabs over Iraq and the economy, sure to be key issues in November. Reports gathered from CNN and other agencies.
McCain criticised the Democrats for speaking in "platitudes" about Iraq. "The Democrats wanted to leave and set a date for withdrawal and said we could never succeed militarily. Look at the record ... not the rhetoric, not the platitudes, but the principles and the philosophy," he said.
McCain later took aim directly at Obama for lacking specifics.
"I respect him and the campaign he has run," McCain said. "But there is going to be time when we have to get into specifics, and I have heard not every speech he has given obviously, but they are singularly lacking in specifics, and that's when as the campaign moves forward, we will be portraying very stark differences."
Those comments are among McCain's most pointed attack at Obama to date, a clear sign the Republican nominee apparent is increasingly viewing the Illinois senator as the Democratic front-runner.
With a sweep in the Potomac primaries on Tuesday, Obama moved into the lead in the race for Democratic delegates on the strength of eight straight primary and caucus wins.
Obama returned fire while campaigning in Wisconsin on Wednesday, saying, "It's clear he knows who his opponent's going to be, and I'm looking forward to a great debate on the issues with John McCain."
Obama criticised McCain's stance on the war and said, "We can't keep on spending money that we don't have on a war that should have never been fought and should have never been authorised."
He also took aim at McCain's economic philosophy, saying, "George Bush may not be on the ballot this fall, but his tax cut and his economic policies are,
"If you want the same as we've had in the last seven years, then I think John McCain's going to be a great choice," Obama said. "But if you think we need something new ... then I hope that you will stand with me and vote for me."
Meanwhile, Obama faced criticism from Clinton, who stepped up her campaigning Wednesday with fresh attacks of her own, directly challenging Obama's ability to deliver on his rhetoric.
"I am in the solutions business. My opponent is in the promises business," the senator said in McAllen, Texas. "It's not the questions. It's the answers. And the answers get right to the heart of who is ready on Day One to be the president and commander-in-chief of the United States."
Obama swept the so-called Potomac primaries Tuesday, winning Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia by wide margins over Clinton.
Tuesday's victories means that Obama for the first time has a lead over Clinton in the delegate count - 1,253 to 1,211, according to CNN estimates.
The victories put Obama's winning streak at eight after he won Kansas, Nebraska, Washington state and Louisiana and Maine last weekend.
Clinton hopes Texas will serve as a bulwark against Obama's wave of growing political support.
Texas holds its primaries on March 4, along with Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. Clinton has events scheduled in McAllen, Robstown and San Antonio, Texas.
In addition to Texas with its large Latino population - a group she has done well with this primary season - Clinton is also banking on winning Ohio and its blue-collar voters, another group that has backed her in previous primaries and caucuses. Clinton was scheduled to campaign in Ohio on Thursday
Obama was scheduled to stump on Wednesday in Wisconsin, which will hold its primaries next Tuesday. Voters in Hawaii, Obama's native state, will also head to the polls on that day.
Recent polls show a tight race between the two Democratic front-runners in Wisconsin, but a Strategic Vision polls conducted February 8-10 has Obama leading Clinton 45-41, a lead outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The Wisconsin contest picked up in intensity Wednesday when the Clinton camp launched a television ad criticizing Obama for not agreeing to debate in the state.
"Both Democratic candidates have been invited to a televised Wisconsin debate," an announcer says in the Clinton ad. "Hillary Clinton has said yes. Barack Obama hasn't. Maybe he'd prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions."
Responding to the ad, Obama campaign manager David Axelrod said, "We've debated 18 times, we're going to debate two more, but we've got other business to do here in terms of meeting voters face to face."
While campaigning in Wisconsin, Obama took his own shots at Clinton, criticising her for supporting the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) while former President Clinton was president.
"You know, in the years after her husband signed NAFTA, Sen. Clinton would go around talking about how great it was and how many benefits it would bring," Obama said in Janesville, Wisconsin. "Now that she's running for president, she says we need a time-out on trade. No one knows when this time-out will end - maybe after the election."
Also on Wednesday, in what could be seen as recognising a second-place status, the Clinton camp sent out a memo pointing out other eventual nominees who suffered big losses before clinching the nomination.
"As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates - not the candidate who wins the most states," the memo said.
The memo calls attention to the upcoming contests in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
Rich Galen, a Republican strategist, said the note is "a memo sent out by a campaign that knows it's in trouble."
"It's not clear to me why they have set the bar so high for themselves in Ohio and Texas on March 4, but they've done it, and now they've got to pay it off," he said on CNN's "The Situation Room."
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BLASHPHEMY OR POLITICAL EXPLOITATION?
Taslima lives somewhere in Delhi, Hussain in Dubai
Jawed Naqvi in New Delhi
Raj Thackeray doesn't like Bihari migrants in Mumbai to practise their way of worship, for example their native Chhat Puja or water worship. His mentor Bal Thackeray had similar issues with ethnic Tamil immigrants. That was way back in time, before he turned his benign gaze upon the Muslim and Christian communities of Mumbai even if they happened to be Marathi speakers.
Narendra Modi in Gujarat too doesn't like Muslims or Christians in his state. In fact he doesn't like secular Hindus either. Renowned artist MF Hussain whose studio in Ahmedabad was destroyed under Modi's watch now lives in exile for fear of his life and danseuse Mrinalini Sarabhai is stoically coping with the full blast of the state's ire. Any Hindu would face it in Gujarat if they spoke for an equal law for the minorities as Sarabhai did.
But minority groups are not far behind in championing their own narrow mindsets. They have played havoc with Muslim women's rights. They have hounded Bangladeshi fugitive writer Taslima Nasrin, on at least one occasion physically assaulting her and threatening to have her killed for alleged blasphemy. The state has done one better. It has put Taslima Nasrin under an undeclared house arrest. Women writers who spoke to Taslima say she fears she would be deported. Her visa expires on 18th February. The government it seems has falsely claimed that it has been extended. If the virtual house arrest is the state's way of keeping her secure from rightwing Muslim rabble-rousers who could harm her, it is tantamount to the cure being worse than the ailment. If Taslima has written something blasphemous, as perhaps she has in one of her books, a democratic state should be able to intervene to deliver fair justice without compromising on its commitment to either free speech or religious freedom.
The idea of India as the founders envisaged it was to have such a complete democracy in this country that it would give every single citizen, or a fugitive, or the casual visitor each and every freedom conceivable in a civilised world. That idea was enshrined in the Constitution of India. It remains the only bible the state is authorised to consult to resolve a substantive difference of opinion it may have with the people or to end a dispute about a matter of principle between them.
The founders neither desired nor offered room, in their delicately crafted idea of a nation state, for religious, regional, linguistic or ethnic mindsets to be entertained by the state's representatives. This of course did not mean that they had failed to observe a few of these slants blossoming and flourishing in their time, but these were not given any space in what we generally know as public affairs. Of course the founders were aware that with a surfeit of regions, religions, languages and ethnicities co-existing cheek by jowl there would be differences or disputes that needed to be handled with care and special firmness.
Most of the biases India has inherited are chronic and cultural in their origin with a history of at least a few hundred years. In some cases, tendencies bequeathed by the hidebound caste system go back a few thousand years in history. All these have been found difficult to wish away. However, other forms of mistrust evolved meanwhile from modern classes and social groups thrown up by colonial and post-colonial economic quests. Consequently, India is currently divided between the worldview cherished by 20 to 30 per cent of its citizens who are destined to enjoy the fruits of its economic policies and the 70 to 80 per cent of those who are condemned to wait with fading hope for their space under the shining sun since 1991. The tussle of the rich and the have-nots acquires the form of irrational prejudices too which erupt occasionally like in Raj Thackeray's sermon to the Biharis who are otherwise a poor hardworking lot.
The main political parties who had hitherto lived by taking money from the rich and the vote from the poor with the promise to protect them from each other are being compelled to consider more surgical methods to keep the 30:70 apartheid intact. Since in a democracy 70 per cent can easily vote out all policies that favour a mere 30 per cent, a method had to be evolved to break the brute majority of the have-nots. The staple so far has been to woo votes from among the 70 per cent by playing up their parochial prejudices. Muslims make a large and readymade vote bank here. Hindus are a lot more difficult to weld together as a voting lobby. We know of 'AJGAR' and 'MY' factors in Indian elections, representing Ahir, Jat, Gujar, Adivasi and Rajput in parts of north and western India and Muslim-Yadav in Bihar. These are all predominantly Hindu groups but usually at loggerheads with each other. Yet the overwhelming majority of India's Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists and Christians belong to the 70 per cent of the have-nots. This should ideally pit them against the 30 per cent predominantly Hindu interest groups who are ruling the roost. Such a democratic coup would be unacceptable to the Indian state as it has evolved. Therefore, Messrs Thackeray and Modi are assigned a pivotal role to sort out the mess.
The imageries of Taslima and Husain are useful in this respect. Taslima, it is said, has hurt Muslim sentiments with her blasphemous writings and Hussain, we are told, has hurt Hindu sentiments with his supposedly offensive paintings of goddesses. But Taslima has been in Kolkata for years after she wrote Dwikhandita, the evidently objectionable book. So what has happened suddenly to bring her alleged apostasy into the mainframe of Muslim ire? The answer comes from a direction that is surprising. It has been suggested by a growing number of respected intellectuals that the communist government in West Bengal, hitherto regarded as the repository of secular virtues, is quite a lot responsible for targeting Taslima. Her criticism of the violence, which communist cadres had unleashed on the impoverished Dalit and Muslim residents of Nandigram is said to be a key reason for Taslima's current misery. So it is a sad day indeed that the left also appears to have acquired the methods of "bourgeois" rule it had so far fought tenaciously. The left's apparent culpability in the Taslima affair, and its willingness to use Muslim communalism even though it has been the target of Muslim obscurantist groups in the past, is a new development in the equation.
The anger, if not complete disillusionment, with the left seems to have outraged large swathes of left sympathisers and ordinary democratic opinion-makers across India. Implied in their criticism is the call to the left: stop behaving like the Congress and the BJP. Eminent writers such as Mahashweta Devi, Arundhati Roy, Ashish Nandy and Girish Karnad have called a major meeting this week to demand the release of Taslima Nasrin and the safe return of Hussain from Dubai, among other issues. But the most interesting message in this meeting to my mind will be a word of caution to the Left Front to distance itself from the brand of politics that breeds mediaeval prejudices.
The writers have taken measures of course to ensure that the BJP gets no succour from their ire against the Congress and the left. They released a statement on Sunday ahead of a public meeting on Wednesday. It says: "Inevitably, hoping to make political capital out of the situation, the BJP is publicly shedding crocodile tears over Taslima Nasrin, going to the extent of offering her asylum in Gujarat. It seems to expect people to forget that the BJP, VHP and RSS cadres have been at the forefront of harassing, persecuting, threatening and vandalising newspaper offices, television studios, galleries, cinema halls, filmmakers, artists and writers. Or that they have forced MF Hussain, one of India's best-known painters, into exile."
The writers also raised an alert about the little known incarceration of journalists in states like Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. "Away from the public glare of press conferences and television cameras, journalists are being threatened and even imprisoned. Prashant Rahi from Uttarakhand, Praful Jha from Chattisgarh, Srisailum from Andhra Pradesh, P Govind Kutty from Kerala are a few examples."
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Poachers killing rhinos in Assam
Nava Thakuria in Guwahati
It is vital to save the endangered rhinos in Assam's national parks, but a section of media persons in northeast, it has becomes very important to safeguard the forest minister. While the wildlife lovers around the globe have made hue and cry against the authority of Kaziranga National Park for its failure to protect the one-horned rhinos, a section of journalists in Guwahati continue to fabricate stories glorifying the initiative of the state forest minister. Those journalists, representing national and international news agencies, tried their best to project a different picture where the minister has been praised lavishly for his immediate actions against the poachers in Kaziranga. But those stories really missed the public furies, local media's concern and wildlife activities' sustained voices against the ongoing poaching in the park, which recently celebrated hundred years of success in preserving the precious inmates.
20 rhinos lost in 2007
Kaziranga lost 20 rhinos during 2007 to poachers and it is all time high in the last decade. The new year began with more sad news. Within the fifth week of 2008, four rhinos fell pray to the poachers in the same park, which was long identified as a safe heaven for the rhinos. A census in 1984 showed that Kaziranga, which was declared a National Park in 1974, had 1,080 rhinos. The number was found increasing up to 1069 in another census during 1990. The 1999 census provided more optimistic result as the number of rhinos soared to 1,552. The last census in 2006 revealed the number of rhinos as high as 1,855 in the park. Amazingly Kaziranga gives shelter to almost two-thirds of the total population of one-horned rhinos on Earth.
Called black ivory, the rhino horn is prized as an aphrodisiac and a cure for many ills in traditional Oriental medicine, selling for thousands of dollars per kilogram. A single horn can fetch as much as $40,000. Rising incomes across Asia mean that demand for powdered rhino horn is on the increase. And sophisticated poachers are ranging farther and farther to fetch it although there is scant scientific evidence that powdered rhino horn has any medicinal or aphrodisiac value.
But veterinarians, say that's nonsense. It is nothing but superstition. The horns are nothing but compact masses of agglutinated hair and rhinos use them for defence against other animals. There is no scientific analysis that the rhino horn powder could stimulate human sex, said a Guwahati based animal physician.
Even then the rhinos are being slaughtered for their horns. The poachers use various methods to kill the giant animal. The easiest way remains shooting it with guns (fitted with silencer). There are reports that the poachers often use telescopic rifles that can fire bullets from a long distance. Some times, the poachers come inside the park during the night (Kaziranga has no fencing or wall on the boundary) and dig a hole on the path, which rhinos often use.
The park director Suren Buragohain argues all the time, "The poachers are equipped with sophisticated weapons. But our forest guards lack proper arms to counter them. The park, he says, badly needs more guards with advanced arms and ammunition. Incidentally, Buragohain earns brickbats from the wildlife lovers as his tenure witnessed the rapid increase in rhino poaching at Kaziranga. Statistics reveal that during his term (still to cross 12 months) as director, Kazirnaga lost the highest number of rhinos in a decade.
As the director was clueless to the grave threats to rhino poaching in Kaziranga, the State forest minister showed equally insensitive and callous approach to the issue. All the time, the young mister in Tarun Gogoi's cabinet, preferred to ignore the matter.
It finally compelled the All Assam Students' Union (AASU), an influential students' organisation to come to the streets. AASU activists staged a State-wide demonstration on February 2 to protest against the authority's failure in protecting the rhinos. The venues included the offices of the forest departments in all parts of Assam. The AASU advisor Samujjal Bhattacharya went on demanding the immediate resignation of Rockybul Hussain as the forest minister of Assam "for failing to take adequate steps to stop this heinous crime against a national treasure".
Media's deep anguish
Earlier the conscious citizens, political party members and media editorials expressed their deep anguish against the continued slaughtering of rhinos in Assam, particularly at Kaziranga, in the last few months. The newspaper readers and television viewers had a shocking experience in January, when they were exposed to a horrible visuals of a wounded rhino at Kaziranga. The mother rhino had already lost her calf. Probably she tried in vain to save her calf, which was killed by the poachers for its horn. Then it was her turn to fall victim in a more tragic away. The poachers cut her horn, when she was alive and took it away. For the nest two days the rhino fought with death with her severe wounds on mouth and finally succumbed to injuries.
Meanwhile, an active NGO of the region came out with a strong allegation that the authority was somehow involved with the illegal trade of rhino horns. Addressing newsmen at Guwahati Press Club on February 4, Soumyadeep Datta, director of Nature's Beckon, argued that the forest department of Assam has not preserved the rhino horns (as well as ivory and other wildlife organs) in their custody. Nature's Beckon received some vital information (regarding the number of rhino horns and other precious wildlife organs) from the Chief Conservator of Forest (Wildlife) of Assam exercising the Right to Information Act 2005.
As the CCF (Wildlife) MC Malakar informed that only 1498 horns are being preserved in the custody of the forest department till date, Soumyadeep Datta claims that it was too less. He revealed, "We have authentic information that till 1972 Assam forest department used to sell the rhino horns. We suspect, the department continued to sell rhino horns even after 1972, the year the government of India prohibited hunting of wildlife and their trade by enacting laws.
Poaching is a punishable offence in India with 7 years imprisonment. India is a party to Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species since 1976 and hence bound by all its efforts to eliminate International trade in wildlife and wildlife parts, discloses Mr Datta. He added, "We suspect that a large share of the wildlife parts, which are being sold in the international markets every year, make way from the forest department's stock due to the manipulations and corrupt practices of some of the dishonest forest officials." Hence we demand a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe to examine the entire issue of poaching and illegal wildlife organ (like rhino horn, ivory, skin of tiger and leopard) trading, stated Mr Datta.
But all the hue and cries of the conscious people of the region were not taken into consideration by a section of news agency reporters in Guwahati, who only went on reporting the version of the authority and the forest minister. Taking queue from the last incidence of rhino killing at Kaziranga on February 5, one senior reporter had gone to such extent of reporting, where he described the forest minister as seeking a CBI enquiry into the matter. The New Delhi based news agency, IANS on February 5 (contributed by a Guwahati based reporter) described- "We want a CBI to investigate the sudden increase in rhino poaching incidents at Kaziranga," Assam Forest and Environment Minister Rockybul Hussain told journalists.
Similarly, the Guwahati based reporter of AP, tried to paint a rosy picture of Rockybul Hussain, while narrating that the authorities at Kaziranga has deployed 100 armed guards to check the poachers. It quoted the minister as saying, "We are alarmed at the seemingly organized poaching by gangs at the Kaziranga National Park." Also added in the February 6 news, "We have decided to rush 100 armed guards to Kaziranga and to equip the existing forest guards with 200 better rifles to match weapons used by the poachers." In reality, the news depicted the forest minister in such a way that nobody needs to get bothered at the poaching of rhinos, till Rockybul Hussain continues to be a minister.
Amazingly the news agency, based in New York, avoided the public furies against the forest department as well as the minister cleverly. Talking about the particular news item, released by AP and subscribed by a number of international media outlets, a serious reader may find it as a cleverly moulded piece by an experienced (and loyal) public relations official on behalf of his master.
The writer is a Guwahati (Northeast India) based independent journalist and can be contacted at navathakuria@gmail.com.
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'PAKISTAN SCENE
Rigging feared, polls tempo on
Jonaid Iqbal in Islamabad
The only way for Pakistanis to prove Prof. Michel Chossudovsky wrong is to go in large numbers to the polling booth, and vote for the party we think would best serve Pakistan.
In a recent article published in the Global Research (an American think-tank, what else?) the professor warns us that the USA wants to destabilise our country, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. [Now, proved quite wrong by the Scotland Yard Report. Its report released Friday vindicated the government and reiterated the leader did not die of a gun shot aimed at her but due to a fatal accident when her head struck some protruding element in the sun-roof of her four-wheeler].
By the way, Chossudovsky's article also predicts that the days of tight buddy-relationship between Mush and Bush is over, and the ally (USA) has now hell bent to put its bet on a new horse, someone who will not look after the interest of his country but would be a proxy for the great money giver that takes delight in dumping its best friends (Remember Reza Shah Pahlevi of Iran!)
Surprisingly a number of soothsayers still predict that the election due on February may not be held, or postponed.
The speculation may have surfaced due to the continued charges of advance plan for rigging the election being made both by Asif Zardari, and Nawaz Sharif.
On the other hand, the election tempo is picking up. In the area where I live the atmosphere has become electric and the sound bytes resound with hundreds of political party flags flying on rooftops, and setting up of election camps in residential localities.
The media has come on board to persuade people to come out and vote. The Election Commission has launched electronic and newsprint campaigns to motivate people with the same purpose.
However, this is nothing compared to the messages being aired on TV channels by political parties to persuade people to vote for it. How successful would that be and which party would win? As we say, it is for God Almighty to decide the future.
An International Republican Party Poll result on Sunday predicted the win of Pakistan People's Party, with 35.6 per of votes; followed by Nawaz Sharif's PML-N which is likely to get little more than 25 per cent. However, in IR reckoning, the PML-Q once described as the King's (or Musharraf's) party would get only 12 per cent of votes.
Many common people, who we have talked feel, that BB's death has increased the chances of the PPP. And, few would demur that in Sindh province, which is home to Z A Bhutto, and Benazir, the party would emerge the strongest, in terms of successful candidates because the co-chairman Asif Zardari has declared this election, more or less a referendum on the issue of saving Pakistan, and bringing it back on the democratic track.
In the Punjab, Nawaz Sharif also speaks more or less in the same vein. Here the going for him seems to be great, at least at this point of time. But you know something? An ardent PPP fan told me last September (when Nawaz Sharif was not allowed to land at Islamabad airport) that with the division within two factions of the Muslim League (PML-Q and PML-N), people would be divided, and the PPP would benefit.
Now if the Republicans' count is correct, it makes 37, if we were to add up the two = 25 and 12 per cents and the fellow's calculation becomes obviously correct.
However, I have also listened to an aside from a senior vice-president of the PML-Q of a prospective alliance between his party and the PPP to keep NS out.
That might be preposterous, in view of what we are listened to in the past that Asif Zardari and Nawaz have vowed to stick together after the election because both believe in returning democratic rule to Pakistan, in accordance with the Charter of Democracy, Benazir and Nawaz signed in London, last May. But the property of the document is no longer, either with PPP or PML-N. However, people are also saying that two recent suicide attacks, one at Charsadda, and now at Mir Ali, both taking place this week in the NWFP, in which the ANP was targeted, might frighten voters to participate in the election.
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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT
Ramanujan
K. Z. Islam
Ramanujan (1887-1920) was an Indian mathematician and one of the greatest mathematical geniuses of the 20th century with no formal training in pure mathematics; he made substantial contribution in the areas of mathematical analysis, number theory, infinite series and continued fractions. Ramanujan demonstrated a natural ability at mathematics, and was given books on advanced trigonometry. He mastered this book by age 13 and even discovered theorems of his own. He sent samples of his theorems to three academics at the University of Cambridge. Only Prof. G.H. Hardy recognised his brilliant work and asked Ramanujan to study at Cambridge.
Ramanujan independently compiled nearly 3,900 results (mostly identities and equations) during his short lifetime. He stated results that were both original and highly unconventional such as prime and Ramanujan theta function, and these have inspired a vast amount of further research. Ramanujan arrived in England in April 1914 and spent nearly 5 years in Cambridge collaborating with Hardy and Littlewood producing vast amount of original papers in mathematics. In December 1917 Ramanujan was elected to the London Mathematical Society. He was a second Indian to become a Fellow of the Royal society.
Ramanujan was the first Indian to be elected Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge.
Sometime in early 1916 Ramanujan invited Gyanesh Chatterji, his fiancée Ila and their friend Mrilani for dinner. With his guests seated and his apartment awash in the cooking smells of South India, Ramanujan served soup. All was well.
Did his friends wish to have more? asked Ramanujan after a time. They did indeed.
Then: a third helping? Chatterji apparently accepted. But this time, his fiancée and the other woman declined. The dinner conversation continued . . .
Where is Ramanujan? Abruptly, they looked around and realiSed they were alone in Ramanujan's apartment. Their host had vanished.
For an hour, Chatterji and the others waited. Finally, he walked down the single flight of stairs, out the door, through the gate into Great Court, and across the cobbled courtyard to the porter's lodge, where he inquired after Ramanujan. Why, yes, Chatterji was told, Mr. Ramanujan had called for a taxi.
Perplexed, he returned to Ramanujan's rooms and sat there with the others, waiting. Until ten o'clock they waited, the time by which guests had to leave. Still no Ramanijan.
And no Ramanujan, either, the next morning, when Chatterji checked on him. For four days, he heard nothing, grew increasingly fearful. Then, on the fifth day he received a telegram from Oxford, about eighty miles away. Could Chatterji wire him five pounds?
Next day, Ramanujan was back in Cambridge. "I felt hurt and insulted when the ladies didn't take the food I served," he told Chatterji. "I did not want to come [back] in while they were in the house." He had needed to get as far away, as fast as he could; with the money in his pocket, that was Oxford.
Ramanujan was plagued by health problems all through his life, living in a country far away from home, and obsessively involved with his mathematics Rajanujan's health worsened in England. Perhaps exacerbated by stress, and the scarcity of vegetarian food. When Hardy visited Ramanujan who was lying sick in hospital Hardy informed Ramanjuan that the number of the taxi by which Hardy had travelled had a dull number 1729. "No Hardy", said Ramanujan immediately, "It is a very interesting number. It is the smallest number expressible as the sum of two cubes in different ways" (93+103=1729, also 123+13=1729).
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