|
Are these political dynasties cursed?
Barrister Harun ur Rashid
Some families are widely believed to have been "cursed" because of tragic and very unusual circumstances of deaths in the family. Below are a few instances of tragic circumstances of some powerful political families.
The Bhutto dynasty
He's 19 years old, a first-year history student at the Christ Church College of Oxford University, a black belt in Taekwondo and enjoys a good game of cricket.
He's also just been made the head of a political party in South Asia just three days after its leader - his mother - was assassinated after a public rally.
He is Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of the late Pakistan opposition leader and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who on December 27 was killed along with many others in Rawalpindi.
Bilawal steps into a political dynasty are as steep in the history of Pakistan politics as it is in bloodshed and death. Like the Kennedys in the United States, the Gandhis in India and the Suu Kyi family in Myanmar, Bilawal is part of a bloodline that has often been labelled "cursed" because of the tragic ways in which family members die while still in the prime of their lives.
His grandfather, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, founded the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and was Pakistan's prime minister from 1973 to 1977, when he was deposed in a military coup. Just two years later in 1979, he was executed, which many describe as political assassination.
Three of his four children have now died in similarly violent circumstances. His son and the youngest child Shahnawaz was politically active, and was found dead in his apartment in southern France in 1985 at just 27 years of age. Reports stated that he had been poisoned after a family reunion.
His other son Murtaza, also politically active and a rival of his sister Benazir, was shot dead in a gun battle, and Benazir's husband Asif Ali Zardari (who is now the co-chairman of the PPP) was jailed for a few years on charges that he was involved in his brother-in-law's death. Murtaza's daughter Fatima (25) lives in Karachi and blames her aunt for the assassination of her father. Benazir was then Prime Minister.
Benazir, who was the Muslim world's first female political leader at just 35 when she became prime minister in 1988, escaped an assassination attempt in October last year when she returned to Pakistan from self-imposed exile, but did not escape the second attempt on December 27.
Only Sanam, Benazir's younger sister, who lives in London and is not active in politics, remains alive.
Bilawal has changed his surname to include "Bhutto", and this is even reflected in his Facebook account. It is an acknowledgement of the power of his family name in Pakistan politics.
The Nehru-Gandhi family
This Indian political dynasty (not related to independence leader Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1948 by a rightwing Hindu extremist), boasts of three prime ministers of India - Jawaharlal Nehru, his daughter Indira and her son Rajiv.
Jawaharlal Nehru, the son of one of Gandhi's allies, Motilal Nehru, became India's first prime minister in 1947 as head of the Congress party. His only child Indira Gandhi took over the reins as prime minister two years after his death in 1964. In 1984, in her second stint as PM, Indira, 67, was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards.
Her younger son Sanjay was her political adviser and the second most powerful politician in India. He was seen as the heir to the Gandhi political dynasty but in June 1980, he was killed in a plane crash at just 33.
His sudden death propelled his older brother Rajiv into politics. Rajiv was an airline pilot but became a political adviser to Indira just one year later, and in 1984, continued the Gandhi tradition by becoming his nation's prime minister.
But Rajiv also continued another bloody family tradition. In 1991, while campaigning for another shot at the top political job, he was assassinated by a suicide bomber. The bomb was so strong that he apparently could only be identified by the tennis shoes he wore.
Rajiv's Italian-born wife Sonia took charge of the Congress Party in 1998 after initially rejecting politics, and their children Rahul and Priyanka joined the Party in 2004. She could have been India's first Roman Catholic PM when the Congress Party won the national elections in 2004, but in a break with family history, refused to take the post.
The Kennedy clan
John F. Kennedy once said when he was in the White House: "Life is unfair." But long before then US president JFK was shot and killed in Dallas in November 1963, the Kennedy family was already earning the "cursed" tag.
One of JFK's brothers Joseph, 29, died in a plane crash in 1944 during WWII, and a sister Kathleen, 28, also died in another plane crash in 1948. Sister Rosemary was institutionalised in 1941 for retardation and a failed lobotomy.
JFK was the son of Joseph Patrick Kennedy, US ambassador to the UK under president Franklin Roosevelt. Political success flowed through the Kennedy bloodline, but scandal and death also coursed through his family line.
His brother, Robert Kennedy, a US senator and former attorney-general was assassinated in 1968 at 42. Another brother, US senator Edward Kennedy, was critically injured in a plane crash in 1964 and drove a car off a bridge in 1969 where his passenger drowned.
Just three months before JFK's assassination, his second son Patrick Bouvier Kennedy died two days after being born six weeks premature. His first son John F. Kennedy Jr. was killed in a plane crash with his wife Carolyn Bassette in 1999.
One of Robert's sons Joseph Patrick Kennedy III was involved in a car accident in 1973 that paralysed a female passenger, another of his sons David Anthony overdosed in 1984, and another Michael, 39, died in a skiing accident in 1997. Michael was also accused of having an affair with his family's teenage babysitter.
JFK's nephew William Kennedy Smith, son of sister Jean Ann and a former ambassador to Ireland, was acquitted of rape in 1991. Edward Moore, son of Edward Kennedy had his right leg amputated in 1973 because of bone cancer. Another brother, US Congressman Patrick Joseph, was treated for cocaine addiction in 1986.
The Aung San legacy
Closer to home is Myanmar (Burma.) Its opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, 62, dominates the headlines of the world's media every time the lack of freedom in Myanmar is mentioned. Suu Kyi is the daughter of General Aung San, Burma's independence hero who was assassinated in 1947 when she was just two.
When Suu Kyi's party won national elections in May 1990, she was expected to assume leadership of the country, but instead has been under house arrest for 11 years.
In recent times, she was allowed to meet Myanmar leaderships and the UN envoy Dr. Gambari.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
 ^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
NEWS NOTES FROM NEW YORK
Fazle Rashid
South Asia to face severe food shortage
BBC in its evening bulletin at 6pm Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday made a grim prediction that South Asia would face severe shortages of wheat and rice at an affordable price - an euphemism for famine.
In Bangladesh, Food Adviser Tapan Chowdhury was shown the door for stating a fact that the government could do very little to stop the price hike of rice and wheat. He spoke the truth. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen said suppression of facts lead to famine, as it happened in 1974 in Bangladesh.
This scribe in this column had warned about Bangladesh facing a famine-like situation mainly due to shrinkage of acreage for cultivation of rice and wheat worldwide and the skyrocketing price of petroleum products. No one seems to have taken any notice, including the big wigs in the information wings of the government who remain busy showing their faces on TV. Sacking of advisers is not the answer. The government should with single-minded attention try to confront and conquer the grim future.
US presidential race
Hillary Clinton turned the table on Barak Obama by winning the New Hampshire primary comfortably, after she had been pushed to the third place in IOWA caucus. John McCain, seeking Republican Party nomination for the White House race, also won with ease. Hillary Clinton, who was pushed to the third position in IOWA, mustered 39 per cent votes, with Obama trailing behind with 36 per cent. John Edwards, who was second in IOWA ahead of Hillary, finished a poor third with 17 per cent.
John McCain, the Republican candidate, won at New Hampshire, pushing IOWA victor Huckabee to the third place. McCain's immediate contender is Mitt Romney. There was a record turnout at New Hampshire. The nomination race is far from settled. Obama said elections are funny business. Hillary Clinton, pointing to Obama, said, "You campaign in poetry but you govern in prose." The outcome of the nomination race will become clear on February 5, known as Super Tuesday, when two most populated states-New York and California-will vote to elect the nominees for November 2008 race for the White House.
The success of Hillary and McCain followed their third and fourth place finish in IOWA. Hillary's victory fires new life into her campaign. The latest polls show Hillary and Obama are running neck and neck.
Recession in US economy
President Bush, in a marked shift from his usual upbeat economic assessments, has conceded that the nation faces economic challenges due to the rising oil prices, home mortgage crisis, and a weakening job market, the NYT quoted him as saying. We cannot take growth for granted, he said. Bush stopped short of warning that the nation might be about to enter a recession.
This assessment about the strongest economy of the world will send shiver through the world capitals. Bangladesh, particularly after the ravages of the nature, will find itself confronted with very difficult times ahead. China is the only country enjoying a steady economic growth. President Bush was unusually soft in chastising Iran for committing what he said was a provocative act. It is a dangerous situation and they should not have done it pure and simple, he said. Bush's comments came in the wake of five armed Iranian speedboats approaching three American warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The confrontation ended after 30 minutes without any damage, shots fired or injuries. President Bush has embarked upon a weeklong visit to the troubled Middle East to find a lasting solution by way of creating two independent states of Palestine and Israel. But no one expects the visit to yield any result. President Bush has hardly time to fulfil his ambition. He is now known as the 'Lame Duck' president and cannot take any major policy decision. He faces a mountain of problems at home and abroad, the Economist said.
Pakistan
Pakistan, which has been painted as the "world's most dangerous place" by the Economist, now faces the most turbulent period in its 60 years of existence. Pakistan extricating itself from military rule anytime soon now seems more remote then before the ghastly assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Pakistan army has dominated the country for decades and the army chief has always wielded enormous power.
The new army chief, US trained, introvert General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is a protégé of Pervez Musharraf. Kayani will remain loyal to him to a certain point. But Kayani will withdraw his support if he suspects Musharraf's action will damage the army. More important than this is America's growing confidence in Kayani. The US administration would not hesitate to lend support to the new army chief if it becomes clear that Musharraf is not the right person to rely on.
General Kayani's personal views have been difficult to extract. He has refused to grant any interview to the US or British media. Kayani, immediately on assuming office, declared 2008 as the year of soldiers, an attempt to improve the weakening morale of the army. This was swiftly endorsed by America. The army has been combating militants with more than 1,000 soldiers killed since 2001. Americans feel the army would perform better under Kayani than Musharraf.
In an army deeply enmeshed in Pakistan's politics, Kayani has declined to ally himself with any political party. Meanwhile, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 19-year-old son of the slain Pakistan leader Benazir Bhutto, said United States will have to stop supporting military dictators in Pakistan for Islamic militants to be defeated there. Responding to a question whether he feared for his life at a press conference in London he said how many Bhuttos can you kill?
Bilawal renewed demands for a UN inquiry into his mother's death and blamed America for supporting the generals who have ruled his country for most of its history. The problem is dictatorship breeds extremism and, once the US stops supporting dictators, we can successfully tackle extremism, Bilawal said.
China to launch more satellites
China would launch 15 rockets, 17 satellites and its third mission with astronauts this year. The announcement was made on January 7. North Korea, which failed to meet its December 31 deadline to dismantle its nuclear installation, has asked for more time to finish the job. United States is taking an indulgent view and one of its senior officials said the problem should be confronted with patience and perseverance.
Nicolas Sarkozy
President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, who was spotted with his bikini-clad girlfriend Carla Bruni exposing her voluptuous body at a tourist spot in Egypt on Sunday, said he would marry her. Surzoky was blamed for philandering and devoting no time to more serious business of state. Sarkozy and Carla are expected to wed next month. Sarkozy used to live together with another woman before becoming the president. They have children. Meanwhile, Sarkozy's approval rating has plunged by 17 per cent. He hit back at the media accusing it of hypocrisy. He said the media did not disclose the illicit connection of former President Francois Mitterand, who lived with a mistress and a daughter was born to them.
Poland not to allow US base
US suffered an embarrassing rebuff when Poland's new government said it would not allow US to place an anti-ballistic missile shield system on its soil until all costs and risks are considered. This is an American not a Polish project, Radek Sikorsi, foreign minister of Poland, said.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
Anti-Christian violence in Orissa
Prof. Ram Puniyani
In Orissa over 40 churches were torched in December last. In the violence which broke out, many of the people have been severely injured. Recently Gladys Stains wrote to Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh to ensure that communal peace is restored in Orissa. This she did in the backdrop of the scattered attacks on Christians.
Stains name is etched in our memory for wrong reasons; her husband and two sons were torched to death around a decade ago in Keonjhar Manoharpur Orissa.
Some of the priests and laity have run for shelter, leaving their homes and hiding in the forests in the biting cold. All this has happened in the Adivasi area in and around Phulbani and Kandhamal. The timing was around the Christmas celebrations, 2007.
It is no coincidence that the BJP is part of the ruling coalition in Orissa, and those involved in the vandalism are part of some or the other organisations directly affiliated with the RSS. The major such organisations are Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram, Bajrang Dal and their local variants. While the media reports are sketchy, the citizens' inquiry team, which was to visit the area has been denied permission to visit the districts and was escorted out of the area.
The attacks on minorities and weaker sections are launched for short or long-term political goals, but the care is taken that a pretext is manufactured and then the attacks can be unleashed. In this case it has been said that Swami Lakkhanand was attacked by Christians and so the retaliation. One is supposed to believe that a Swami from the majority community, with sizeable following, will be attacked by the section of miniscule minority!
Anti-Christian attacks
The visible attacks on Christian minorities started from 1996. The areas selected for these attacks have spread over from Gujarat on the extreme West to Orissa on the extreme east of the tribal belt. It is in these areas that anti Christian violence have been going on in scattered form since then.
The Christmas season is the chosen time for anti-Christian attacks. Earlier also such occasions were chosen for attacking and beating the Christian community, notably in Dangs in 1998. This time in Phulbani area the Swami and his associates declared that the presence of Christians will not be tolerated in the Adivasi areas.
Most of these acts of violence have a bit different characteristics, i.e. unlike the anti-Muslim violence which is more in the cities and occurs as spurts of killing hundreds or thousands in a single go, here the cauldron is kept boiling continuously. The intensity is that of a slow but sustained intimidation and attack.
Dara of Bajrang Dal
The most ghastly anti-Christian violence was committed by Bajrang Dal activist, Dara Singh, who instigated the Adivasis and led the burning of Pastor Graham Stewart Stains. He and his organisation kept propagating for months that the pastor came from Australia for converting the gullible Adivasis to Christianity, that his work amongst the leprosy patients is just a ploy to do his 'real work' of conversions. The Wadhwa Commission, appointed by the NDA Govt. with Advani as the Home Minister, in the aftermath of this brutal killing, concluded that the pastor was not involved in any conversion activities and that the percentage of Christian population in the area remained static despite the pastor working in the area.
At national level the attacks on Christians have been investigated by different civic groups, compiled in the book The Politics behind Anti-Christian Violence (Media House, Delhi). Most of the reports conclude that the attacks have been deliberately stepped up in the Adivasi areas. The main targets of these attacks are the Christian missionaries working in the area of education.
Hounded out
The contrast is very glaring. The city-based Christian mission institutions are upheld and respected for their contribution in the area of education, while in the Adivasi areas the same are being hounded out. The reports also observe that the RSS affiliates have been trying to do anti-Christian propaganda along with Ghar Vapasi (re-converted into Hinduism) campaign.
The major work of Ghar Vapasi has been undertaken in the BJP-ruled states, or in the states where BJP has been sharing power. The subtle assistance of the state machinery in the anti-Christian tirade is always at the service of RSS affiliates. The Ghar Vapasi asserts that "Adivasis are basically Hindus, who had to flee to the forests to escape the conversion by Muslim invaders, so they are 'nationally' Hindus, who have forgotten the Hindu rituals and gods and so have fallen low in the hierarchy of Hindu religion." This ritual of re-conversion is supposed to religiously restore them to their old Hindu glory!
The case of Orissa was specifically investigated by Indian People's Tribunal, led by Justice K. K.Usha (retired) of Kerala High court in 2006 (Communalism in Orissa). This tribunal forewarns about the shape of things to come. "The tribunal assessed the spread of communal organisations in Orissa, which has been accompanied by a series of small and large events and some riots...such violations are utilised to generate the threat and reality of greater violence, and build an infrastructure of fear and intimidation."
It further notes that minorities are being grossly ill treated; there is gross inaction of the state Govt to take action. Outlining the mechanism of the communalisation, it points out, "The report also describes in considerable detail how the cadre of communal organisations is indoctrinated in hatred and violence against other communities it holds to be inherently inferior. If such communalisation is undertaken in Orissa, it is indicative of the future of the nation... the signs are truly ominous for India's democratic future." (p 70)
Swamis' permanent Ashrams
In these Adivasi areas Swamis have made their permanent Ashrams, Lakkhanand, in Orissa, Assemanand in Dangs, and followers of Ashrams bapu in Jhabua area to name a few. Also Hindu Samgams, congregations, are being held, the culmination of which was the Shabri Kumbh in Dangs where thousands of Adivasis were brought. In those areas the Hindutva organisations spread the intimidating rumours that those who do not attend these functions will be dealt with in due course. Interestingly these are precisely the areas which are the poorest; these are the areas where the problems of land, education, water and food are the highest.
Pehle Kasai Phir Isai
Anti-Christian violence is in the continuation of RSS agenda of Hindu Rasthra, Pehle Kasai Phir Isai (First the Muslims, then the Christians). There is an additional factor in the anti-Christian violence. One concedes that there may be many a Christian groups who might be focusing on the conversion work, within the bounds of Indian constitution, of course. But one has to note that in India, over all population of Christian minorities is declining over a period of last four decades, (1971--2.60 per cent, 1981--2.44 per cent, 1991--2.34 per cent, and 2001-2.30 per cent). While Christianity is a very old religion in India, during the past nineteen centuries or so only 2 (two) percent have become Christians.
The major problem is that the effort of missionaries to reach education to the adivasi areas is being obstructed. Educated Adivasis and empowered Adivasis will be more aware of his or her rights and that's precisely what RSS combine cannot stand.
That the tiny minority can be a threat to the huge majority of Hindus is quiet a concoction. There is a need to deal with these violations of human rights firmly, there is a need to curb the hate propaganda in these areas and of course the need to promote modern education and other welfare schemes in these areas. Christmas which should have been a festival of joy is being turned into an annual ritual of violence and mayhem by the RSS combine.
-SAN-Feature Service/Secular Politics
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
Democratisation is a must
Military rule, Punjabi dominance wreck Pakistan
Mohammad Amjad Hossain
Pakistan has been destined to continue to suffer since the birth of the country in 1947. The birth of Pakistan is itself unique in history; it was born out of the two-nation theory. No country in the world was established on the basis of religion, although the founder of the country Mohammad Ali Jinnah was secular in character and a thoroughly westernised gentleman par excellence. His first speech in the constituent Assembly of Pakistan on August 11, 1947 reflected his secular bend of mind.
Conspiracy in politics
Pakistan has been trapped in the conspiracy of Punjabi military-bureaucrats after the death of the founder of the country in 1948.Almost 90 percent of the officer corps in Pakistan armed forces comes from Punjab and a fraction from Sindh and North West Frontier. Because of the conspiracy within two years of its existence the first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan was assassinated in Rawalpindi in 1951. No clue was established about the motive of the assassin.
This was followed by removal of civil governments one after another without cogent reason. In 1958 on October7 Major General Syed Iskandar Ali Mirza declared Martial law by discarding the constitution with a view to remaining in power in perpetuity. This was the first of many subsequent instances of military intervention in Pakistani politics.
The country has been passing through never-ending crisis .It has been divided by four geographically, ethnically, linguistically distinct provinces. They speak Sindhi, Punjabi, Baluchi and Pashto. Urdu is a lingua franca. Society is not homogenous. Ethnic homogeneity plays an important factor in shaping democratic process in a county; but that remains absent in Pakistan. Political leaders or military leaders have failed to unite the people on common ground to bring about economic development around the country on equal footing.
Islam as a weapon
During more than half of its 60 years of existence Pakistan has been ruled by the military. Both politicians and military officers found Islam as weapon to exploit the people whereas many of them live an un-Islamic way of life, so to say. It was an irony to say that Pakistanis failed to find true national identity.
Dictatorial clique in Pakistan ruthlessly suppressed the people; and they identified themselves with a very microscopic Punjabi dominant class. As a result, other deserving classes were deprived of share in power like Baluchi and Pathans. Economic exploitation and political suppression contributed to the splitting of East Pakistan in 1971. Similar situation now exists in North West Frontier and Baluchistan provinces, the biggest and resourceful province.
A series of anti-government demonstrations and clashes with military by Baluchis in recent days demanding equal share in revenue obtained from the natural resources speaks of boiling situation in Baluchistan. It has a population of over 7.5 million. Baluchs are also deprived of legitimate share in administration and military as well.
Butcher Tikka
The present volatile situation in Baluchistan reflects the situation that existed in 1970 when a war of independence was launched by Baluch tribal people which lasted several years. This uprising was gunned down by military operation by General Tikka Khan who became known as "butcher Tikka Khan".
Pashtun tribe numbering 30 million in Pakistan is living in abject poverty. The rulers in Pakistan in fact kept them away from modern education. They are divided and engaged in internal feuds.Pathans in Pakistan and Afghanistan were the tools at the hands of Pakistan military leaders and the Western power to fight against Russian occupation of the Afghanistan in 1980. Today they are the victims of the war on terror launched by US administration. Pakistan military President Pervez Musharraf jumped on the bandwagon of the US-led war against Taliban without consulting anyone. Musharraf's attempts to control these provinces by military strategy have produced armed insurrections.
The war has now not only been confined to Baluchistan and South and North of Waziristan ,but also spread to Swat, Kohat, Dera Ismail Khan, even Islamabad when military commandos stormed the Lal Majid complex in Islamabad. Tribal border areas that straddle the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan have always been independent. Neither Alexander the Great nor the British could control the tribal areas. Pakistan has no control over the tribal areas since independence.
Fate of Pakistanis
The fate of Pakistan is controlled by military bureaucrats and Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who was responsible for breaking of East Pakistan, declared loudly in 1971 that two powers exist in Pakistan: Politically Pakistan People's Party and the Military, while his daughter Benazir Bhutto told loudly that Pakistan's politics is controlled by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.
Since Pervez Musharraf took power through military coup in 1999 he has been applying military strategy to resolve the crisis. He threw the nation into turmoil when he declared a state of emergency on November 3, suspended the constitution and arrested thousands of political opponents, human rights activists, judges and lawyers-the vanguard of Pakistan's political opposition. Musharraf fired judges, including the Chief Justice before they could strip of his presidency.
The opposition leader Benazir Bhutto said that it was the blackest day in Pakistan's history. "Pakistan and Musharraf cannot coexist. He must go. My dialogue with him is over", said Benazir Bhutto.
Benazir returned to Pakistan on October 18 after eight years in exile following a deal brokered by Bush administration with President Musharraf. Benazir was seen by Bush administration as the only politician to bring stability and keep presidency of Musharraf intact to counter rising terrorism in Pakistan. Bush diplomacy has pushed towards reconciliation between Benazir and Musharraf, but it did not work as such.
With the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi, the military garrison city, the prospect of restoring democracy in Pakistan has become bleak. In true sense of the term democracy never worked in Pakistan. In spite of turmoil Bush administration is still in favour of sharing power with politicians to prevent from taking over power by Islamic extremist groups if the situation remains unstable in Pakistan. Bush administration has the apprehension that nuclear arsenals may be possessed by extremist groups. The administration remains worried about nuclear arsenals.
Political solution
In the changed scenario there has been clamour in the United States from Presidential candidates of both Democratic and Republican parties to urge President Musharraf to resign, to continue the process of democratisation in Pakistan and holding international investigation of assassination of Benazir Bhutto while they call upon Bush administration to stop military aid to Pakistan.
In view of the precarious and fluid situation concerted effort is required to unite fractured opposition political parties to save the country from further splitting. The latest development of selecting slain Benazir Bhutto's son Bilawal as chief of Pakistan People's Party does not speak of democratic norm within the party itself. It also speaks of lack of leadership quality in the party.
In spite of flaws in the system only political parties can reach all segments of society to resolve the socio-politico-economic crisis in Pakistan. American President Woodrow Wilson rightly pointed out: "Society, it must always be remembered, is vastly bigger and more important than its instruments, Government. Government should serve society, by no means rule or dominate it. Government should not be made an end in itself; it is a means only, a means to be freely adapted to advance the best interests of the social organism. The State exists for the sake of the society, not society for the sake of the state".
Military strategy is not a solution as has been demonstrated in many parts of the world, including Pakistan.
The author, a former diplomat, writes from Virginia.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
BRITAN HAS TOO MANY FLAWS TO LECTURE
Hectoring calls from a post-imperial nanny unnecessary for Pakistan or Kenya
Simon Jenkins in London
Democracy is looking sick just now. At the start of 2008 Churchill's nostrum that it is the worst form of government "except for the others" is being tested close to destruction, assassinated in Pakistan, sabotaged in Kenya, massacred in Iraq, strangled in Russia, ridiculed in South Africa and purchased in America. But then it depends on what you mean by democracy.
This week the "better" democracies are wagging fingers at worse ones, like 17th-century popes reprimanding missionaries in the distant jungle. They tut-tut over a stuffed ballot box in Nairobi, a banned radio station in Islamabad or a murdered journalist in Moscow. They condemn a riot here, a bombed polling booth there and an imprisoned politician somewhere else. How dare these "developing" peoples corrupt the sacred rites of mother church?
The British government is peculiarly unable to resist such finger-wagging. While Tories long to rule a better Britain, the Blair/Brown Labour party longs to rule a better world. Last month the foreign secretary, David Miliband, told Pakistan's prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, "what actions we expect his government to take". Last weekend, Gordon Brown telephoned President Pervez Musharraf to explain to him "the need to push ahead with the democratic process and to avoid any significant delay in the electoral timetable". He added that Britain expected Pakistan's elections to be "free, fair and secure".
On the other phone line, Brown had the benighted rulers of Kenya, another of Kipling's "lesser breeds without the law" needing instruction in the democratic catechism. He commanded them to "behave responsibly" and used such language as "what I want to see is ..." and "only by working together can we make progress". He said he would be talking to the various parties for all the world as if Kenya were still a colony.
If I had been Musharraf in receipt of such patronising remarks, I would have drawn deep from the well of irony. I would have referred Britain's prime minister to his poor poll rating and said Islamabad was "dismayed" he had funked a democratic mandate last October. I would have expressed Pakistan's disappointment at Brown's record on habeas corpus, ID cards and the exploitation of Pakistani doctors by the NHS.
One peep from Brown about the Taliban and I would have pointed out that it was his drugs policy that underpinned the world price of heroin and thus subsidised the Taliban, among other things, to kill Benazir Bhutto. As for protecting elected politicians, I would inquire into the life expectancy of those in British-controlled south Iraq. And Britain's war in Helmand had about as much to do with democracy as Pizarro's conquest of Peru had to do with Christianity.
Democracy has never been perfect. From the moment self-government lost touch with "self" - departing the agora of Athens, the althing of Reykjavik and the town meeting of New England - it adapted itself to nations and peoples. Its institutions depend more on local history, culture and geography than on Madison, Mill and De Tocqueville. This week the rituals of heredity, not democracy, decided the leadership of the Pakistan People's party. Most Asian and African democracies are ballots qualified by assassination, corruption and inheritance. Yet we still grace them with the term.
Students of politics are taught to tick off the qualities that award the status of democracy to a polity. Are there free and fair elections? Can the franchise turn a regime out of office? Are there supporting institutions such as an open parliament, security of public assembly, elected local government, a free media, the rule of law? No one of these is either sufficient or necessary for democracy, which is rather a sliding scale of liberties, to which constitutions and regimes ascribe varying degrees of priority.
For all the manifest horror of the past week in Pakistan and Kenya it is presumptuous for the west to demand that the world take the same route to self-government that it spent bloodthirsty centuries pursuing. We may regard liberal democracy as the one true religion, but it is doubtful if many Russians or Chinese do likewise at present. Like many places on earth, they give a higher rating to security and prosperity.
We are not so clean that we can lecture others on how they should govern themselves, especially those whom the west has polluted with aid, debt, trade curbs and wars along their borders. Democracy in Pakistan and Kenya may be looking violently unwell at present, but western democracy too is qualified by the corruption of party lists, eccentric primaries and electoral colleges. The British and American constitutions are both currently battered by criticism from their subjects for falling short of democratic ideals, notably in handling accountability and checks on executive power. The outcome of America's 2000 election was decided not by the ballot but by an appointed oligarchy. Americans would hardly have welcomed election monitors from Ukraine, India or Thailand encamped in the Miami Hilton.
I may believe that democracy is the best path to a stable and prosperous society and hope that others agree as to its virtues. Unlike the earlier propagation of Christianity, I do not regard this as a matter of blind faith. Democratic principles are rooted in human freedom and tested empirically over time. Other things being equal, or even unequal, I would advocate them as of universal application to every society. Those who espouse them merit not just the BBC World Service but active friendship and support, especially in time of trouble.
But democracy is best propagated by example, not by conquest or official admonition. There are too many blots on Britain's escutcheon for its leaders to go lecturing the world in terms redolent of the new interventionism. There may be beams in the eyes of other democracies and motes in ours, but their beams are not our business.
Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. Its fragile half-democracy is conditioned by the insecurities of its recent past and by desperate poverty. There are a hundred ways of helping it along the rocky path between democracy and dictatorship, a path Britain spent a leisurely two centuries traversing. But ultimately Pakistan, like Kenya, will be the stronger for taking this path alone. The last thing it needs is hectoring phone calls from a post-imperial nanny.
Courtesy: The Guardian
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
Abrogation of ceasefire agreement
International community can make a difference
Jehan Perera in Colombo
According to pro-LTTE news sources, Shanmuganathan Ravishankar alias Charles, chief of the LTTE's 'military' intelligence wing was killed along with three other LTTE cadres following an ambush by SL elite forces in the general area North of Mannar on Sunday, The report has been confirmed as true by. Shanmuganathan Ravishankar alias Charles, chief of the LTTE's 'military' intelligence wing was killed along with three other LTTE cadres following an ambush by SL elite forces in the general area North of Mannar, according to military sources.
The government's decision to abrogate the Ceasefire Agreement was not unexpected. In the last several weeks it was evident that the government would have to arrive at a new accommodation with the JVP if it was to survive. The presentation of the budget in December highlighted the government's dependence on JVP support to maintain its majority in Parliament. The JVP had publicly made it known that its support would come if the government was prepared to abrogate the Ceasefire Agreement, ban the LTTE and ensure the end of international intervention in the country's ethnic conflict.
From the inception of the Ceasefire Agreement in February 2002 the JVP had been its most obsessive critic. Using its skills of communication the JVP took the message that the Ceasefire Agreement endangered the unity of the country. One set of arguments that had a deep resonance with the ethnic Sinhalese majority was the point that the agreement conceded too much to the LTTE in terms of formal recognition. In particular the notion of lines of control with large chunks of Sri Lankan territory accepted to be under the LTTE, and the acceptance of two armies was denounced.
Another set of arguments that the JVP devised was out of its own reading of international politics. They claimed that if an agreement lasted for more than five years it could become permanent. The JVP was also able to combine this bizarre theory with the accusation that the Ceasefire Agreement was a cunning device to facilitate negotiations between two countries, one existent and the other incipient. When this was combined with the LTTE's own violations of the Ceasefire Agreement, which were highlighted in the media and by the government, the case for continuing with it became weak in the eyes of most people.
International concern
The international reactions to the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement, however, have not been muted. While the international response has so far been limited to statements, they have been strong. All of the international statements have expressed disappointment and regret, and highlighted the unfeasibility of the military option that the government appears to be relying on. So far the key international actors to have issued statements include the UN, the US, Canada, the Scandinavian countries, Japan, India, Australia and France. The joint statement issued by the five governments of the Scandinavian bloc made the most comprehensive analysis of the benefits of the Ceasefire Agreement.
At the least, the expectation of these key international actors appears to be that the government needs to take decisive steps to re-activate the political process that could lead to a political solution. Perhaps with a view to mitigate an international backlash against it, the government itself has been taking pains to affirm that a political solution will soon be on offer. While such a positive step will be welcome, it is likely to be politically unfeasible. The JVP has already stated that if the government proposes a federal solution, which is the minimum that could satisfy Tamil aspirations, let alone the LTTE, the JVP will work to unseat the government.
The irony of the present political situation is that the government, although it appears to be strong and determined at the level of its leadership, is in reality a structurally weak one. The government's majority in Parliament, and hence its survival, depends on a number of groups whose loyalty is in question. The most obvious of these is the JVP with its 37 members. Another big group is composed of the defectors from the UNP who number 27, most of whom crossed over to the government pledging to deal with issues of good governance and corruption. A third group is composed of an unknown number of members of the ruling party whose commitment to the present leadership of the party is not quite certain. A fourth consists of members of ethnic minority parties who remain with the government on sufferance, as they fear to be in opposition to the government.
The ability of the government to steer this diverse array of groups and interests in the direction of a political solution is doubtful. The ethnic conflict is one which had defied a political solution for over six decades, spanning the entirety of the country's independence.
Potential sanctions
The abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement may therefore have a rationale that goes beyond the obvious one of catering to the JVP's agenda in order to retain its parliamentary support. One of the features of the present war that has earned international opprobrium has been the high level of human rights violations. In this context the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement will also make the prosecution of the war easier, because it will eliminate the presence of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission set up under the agreement to query the conflicting parties about their non-compliance with its provisions and which had a mandate to report on violations of the agreement.
Although the international monitors were never able to actually put a stop to the acts of violence, their presence on the ground is likely to have had some sort of deterrent effect, as their reports were widely read by the international community. The dismantling of their monitoring apparatus can set the stage for an escalation of violence with an even greater level of impunity than at present. This would have catastrophic consequences to the people caught up in the conflict zones in particular, as both the government and LTTE have been effective in keeping out both media and other non partisan monitors from those areas.
At least in the propaganda and psychological war, the ground is being set for a fight to the finish. A considerable amount of optimism has been generated that the LTTE can be effectively defeated in the course of the year. Such sentiment is neither new nor novel, and it has surfaced on many occasions in the past, although on this occasion the LTTE has taken the most severe battering ever. On the other hand, the organisation has been around for over three decades during which they have taken control over large tracts of territory. Whether an organization that has created a military and administrative machinery strong enough to survive for nearly three decades will be eliminated in a matter of months is open to question.
The success of the present government is that it seems to have convinced the majority in the country that what was not possible in the past will be possible today. The LTTE's recalcitrance and the government's recent military victories have combined to change a 70 per cent level of support for the peace process in which the Ceasefire Agreement was the key component into one of 80 percent support for war. But the international community has stood by a negotiated political settlement. The main challenge that the government faces in the short term is the reaction of the international community. The statements by Sri Lanka's main donors, including Japan, indicating concern about abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement can change into actions in the event of escalated war sans political reform.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
|
