|
RESIGNATION DRAMA
Cure is not in replacement but in foresight
M. Shahidul Islam
The fast-moving drama of resignations by four advisers on January 7 has taken the caretaker government (CG) up for another rollercoaster ride. Instead of celebrating the one-year anniversary of a regime that was supposed to stay in power for 90 days only, the 'second CG' of the current interregnum looks set to fail unless some fundamental flaws are taken care of.
The ongoing saga was not unexpected as one cannot dream of freedom by ignoring lessons of history. Thucydides said 25 centuries ago that the greatest threat to the Hellenic civilisation was its success in democratic governance, which the Spartans loathed. The unbridled meddling in our internal affairs by foreign powers in the pre-1/11 period showed how vulnerable our democratic sojourn became to the clever manipulations of nations masquerading as friends.
And, the latest uproar over the sudden increase in the price of rice shows anew the existence of more ominous threats, at a time when the nation's priority was supposed to be holding a credible election by the year's end. Make no mistake; if our aim is democracy, all else in between shall be treated as the means to that goal.
That is why this and many other occurrences indicate that our quest for freedom is at stake. After all, nothing else has made the government as unpopular as did the sudden spikes in the prices of rice and of some other essentials. In the midst of this economic woes-emanated political uncertainty, one question reverberates aloud: Can we really afford the failure of this government?
To get into the full story as to how the rice price turbulence turned into a political earthquake, and why now, we must rewind to the near past.
The cyclone Sidr damaged about 800,000 metric tons (MT) of rice crop, worth more than $290 million. The agriculture ministry's final damage assessment report showed the overall shortfall in Aman production at 1.4 million MT, against the targeted growth of 32.2 million MT. The loss is staggering as the Aman crop accounts for almost half of the total rice production in the country. The damage came on the heels of an earlier devastation of 600,000 MT of Aman by monsoon flooding in August and September.
Despite that, Agriculture Adviser CS Karim ruled out the possibility of any food crisis, saying the government would make good of the shortfalls by import and through donors' contributions. Finance Adviser Mirza Azizul Islam categorically said, "There is no possibility of any food crisis before March 2008."
Why then the 'rice-price-earthquake' began to shake the nation at the onset of the new year? The reasons lay in the government's immaturity and in the external manipulations that our leaders failed to gauge and dodge.
On November 30, India announced it would allow the sale of 500,000 MT of rice to Bangladesh to help it cope with any potential food shortage. Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee made the announcement during his visit to Bangladesh.
This particular Indian magnanimity was not sought for. What our government appealed to international community was for a donation of 500,000 MT of food grains, instead of money, which we seemed not to be lacking, due to a comfortable foreign exchange reserve, donors' commitments, and an increased revenue earning.
Unfortunately, our policymakers failed to understand how the Indian offer to sell 500,000 MT of rice created false expectations, although a section of the media chanted acclamation and claimed that the Sidr-induced fear of a sudden shortage in rice supply had been withered by this particular Indian kindness.
What followed was a sheer game with the fate of Bangladesh's starving millions. The market started to become unstable after the third week of December, once it became clear that the import of rice from India entered an 'un-chartered territory' as India decided to charge Bangladesh $500 per tonne of rice while the domestic price in India was $320-$350. Amidst the uncertainty, the government signalled that it would look for alternative sources of rice, like Myanmar, Thailand and Pakistan. It became clear at that point that the import from India at $500 a tonne would cost the exchequer Tk 700 crore more, even without taking into consideration the fast-sliding value of taka against Indian rupee.
If the import from India seemed economically unviable-or the import modalities needed more time to finalise-why did the government delay in looking for alternative sources, when the existing stock of 761,000 MT was fast depleting by mid-December due to rapid disbursements made to the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) and social safety net programmes like the Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF), Food for Work etc? Why the shrinkage of future supply caused by the devastation of Aman crop did not make the government more alarmed about the gravity of the impending crisis?
The answer again lies in the government's inept handling and the lack of foresight. In this and many other instances, one observes a growing trend of fatigue, disenchantment, and exhaustion in the government machinery. While it is humanly impossible for 11 advisers to oversee the operations of 47 ministries and their affiliated bodies for an indefinite period of time, the bureaucrats seem to be too wary of making policy decisions due to the fear of accountability when the next government comes into office. They have seen how two of the serving secretaries and many other high officials faced arrests and are awaiting trial and conviction.
As a result, the state itself seems to have become a "no-body's-baby", especially out of a growing legal concern of the regime having outlived its constitutionally-prescribed duration and surviving on the "extenuated authority" derived from the so-called doctrine of necessity.
Finally, the policy output remained the same, because the same people were holding the decision-making portfolios, although the decisions were expected to be different in both quality and quantity. Since October 2006, the country has been run by a group of people who came and went by using what seems like a "revolving door to power". One of the critics said, "Show us one face in the government that had contributed selflessly over the years to change the nation's rotten political culture."
In response to that, one may argue that the country lacks experienced people and so the decision-making has to be done by the same people time and again. Well, a counterargument could be: What is learnt from experience is often annulled by experience and visions and intents are more important than experience at moments of crisis. Never in the nation's history have we witnessed so many "experienced" doctorate degree holders in decision-making positions. Yet, seldom before have our sufferings been greater.
People also whisper about the role of those in power now during the misrules of the previous governments. They even ask: Where is the new blood?
There is another factor that has begun to make people worried in recent months. The chief adviser and his finance adviser are both doctors of economics and have had experiences in both national and international economic management. But their performance so far has belied the minimum deliverance expected from them. Are not they aware of the very basics of economics that an abundance of supply can kill the price of any damn thing? If they do, we must presume they were unaware of data, facts and the mood of the market.
Whatever measures are taken now to manage the crisis, the die of damage has already been cast. Nothing repels domestic and foreign investors more than signs of chronic instability. Yet, like many other crises of the past, this crisis too will be weathered, we suppose.
But, it is one thing to manage a crisis and quite a different one to forestall it. Decision-making warrants knowledge of existential factors as well as the futuristic ones to be discovered through praxis and analysis, which is so much amiss. Does the government have any R&D to rely upon in making crucial policy decisions?
Whether it may or may not is immaterial. As the permanent institutions of the nation, the ministries and agencies concerned of the government must ensure that decisions are made based on required facts and there is no delay in decision-making. A proverb goes: A stitch in time saves nine. Our food and energy security policies have been in too appalling a state to assure us of the prevention of similar crises in coming days.
That does not mean we are not mindful of the fact the CG inherited a faltered economy and the current CG's coming to power coincided with rising inflation, high energy prices, and the fear of a food price spiral on global markets. The economy was also battered by a series of natural disasters. Yet, the Indian decision to stop exporting coarse rice in mid-2007 should have alerted the government to the gradually built-up trend of a regional food grain scarcity.
The Indian policymakers were simply smart enough to know what was coming, something our decision-makers overlooked. Added to the developed nations' diversion of bulk of their wheat output toward ethanol production and more consumption of rice as a substitute of wheat, the global dimension of the emerging rice crisis should have been factored in our domestic calculus.
Besides, the two consecutive floods in the last summer should have been enough to awaken our policymakers while the devastation wreaked by cyclone Sidr should have convinced the government that food security needed to be strengthened and the right message should be sent to people about the availability of required supplies in order to deflate the fear of any impending shortfall. In the world of economics, bad news is an irreversible curse.
Now that the finance adviser has attributed the recent hikes in rice prices to the fear of a supply shortfall is simply unacceptable. A fear can not emerge based on perception only. It is a product of both facts and perceptions. Either there is a shortage of food in the country or the real pictures relating to food security were not disseminated to the public. Whatever it be, both of the above-cited scenarios are indicative of the government's failure to apprehend the gravity of the situation.
The problem was further compounded by the food adviser's candid but lethal remark to the media that the government can 'do little to rein in the spiralling rice prices.' As his comment implied that the government has lost control over the price mechanism of a vital commodity-the price of which has always decided the survival of any government in the past-some dishonest traders seem to have capitalised on the situation and started increasing the prices overnight.
Alarmed by the phobia unleashed by this crisis, and the concern that the so-called army-backed government's failure can be construed as the army's failure, the army chief rushed to urge all concerned to tackle the problem in unison. General Moeen U Ahmed thinks hoarding is mainly responsible for the recent unusual hikes in rice prices and considers price hikes of essentials as the "main challenge for the government".
We could not agree more with the army chief. But the BDR's decision to follow suit and increase the retail price of rice by Tk 5 a kg further exacerbated the problem and emitted two detrimental signals. On the one hand, it proved that the news of lack of supply was authentic and, on the other, it helped rationalise the common traders' move to jack up prices at random.
A reliable source said the brainstorming among people behind the power in the wake of the rice price turbulence has resulted in the exertion of pressures on four advisers to quit. Their replacement, and addition of "consultants" or whatever, is not, however, the solution to a problem that will worsen further in the coming weeks, especially after the scheduled verdict in the Sheikh Hasina vs Azam Choudhury case is rendered on January 13.
Yet, the resignation of the four advisers in one swoop indicates that our political and economic future has reached a turning point, and we must make a turn, instead of stalling at the traffic light. Nations that failed to make timely moves ended in betraying the sacrifices of their ancestors. Voltaire did not envision a weak France to be occupied later by Nazi Germany. American liberation warriors least expected a civil war to devastate their march for freedom almost a century later.
Now that we find ourselves passing through another desperate time zone, a change of the history's gear is badly needed. In deference to the broader national interest, which this particular government has vouched to uphold, the government should recast its mandate, rule, and timing based on the experiences gained over the last 12 months. Alternately, it must make a fast-track move towards holding a free, fair, and credible election by the end of June 2008.
 ^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
OIL PRICE SHOCK & FALLOUT
Govt. should import low-cost crude, accept Iranian offer
Faruque Ahmed
Oil price moved upward and crossed US $100 per barrel last week in the New York stock exchange raising the growing concern about how the LDCs like Bangladesh will manage its oil import bills to be around US$3 billion at the end of the current fiscal 2007-08 as per some estimate.
The petroleum import bills including crude and refined oil and some lubricants amounted to US$ 854 million in 2001 against a total import of about 35 lakh tons. In 2006-07 import volume increased to 38 lakh tons but the payment liability soared to almost three times over that period.
As the oil prices are now surging breaking all past records, its payment liability is also on the steady rise. To look back, oil sold at US $8 per barrel in 1986 in the global market and one wonder what prompted to skyrocket it prices.
Experts suggest that Bangladesh should trim down the import bills by reducing purchase of refined oil and replacing it by more crude oil. Crude oil is US$ 10/barrel lower in price and it can be refined in domestic facilities at a lower cost.
The Eastern Refinery at Chittagong has a capacity of refining 15 lakh tons annually but statistics shows that Bangladesh imported only 12.11 lakh tonnes of crude in 2006-07. The import of refined oil stood at 25.35 lakh tonnes during that period.
Now the question that perturbs the public mind is why the government is not importing more crude for optimum utilisation of Eastern Refinery and why is it importing expensive refined oil? The knowledgeable sources said certain interested quarters are not allowing the Government to move that way as it may clog up their long-time business interest.
These quarters are opposing the setting up of an oil terminal at the outer anchorage for unloading oil and transporting directly through pipeline to the storage facility in the port, a source in the energy ministry said. The idea behind the plan is to stop pilferage and other losses that take place during unloading from tankers under the present open-air system.
Indeed, the setting up of the oil terminal, unloading of oil through pipeline and expansion of the local refinery facility can save wastage, protect oil from theft or pilferage and save a huge amount hard-earned foreign currency now spent to pay for costly refined oil.
The question is: whether the Government will think that way to reduce oil bills to keep the vested interest at bay, besides encouraging more use of CNG in the domestic transport sector.
There are many quarters vying for setting up an oil refinery. Only recently, an Iranian business delegation visiting Bangladesh renewed their country's offer to set up a refinery at Chittagong. But it appears some quarters in the energy ministry are not interested in the offer, let alone taking initiative to open a discussion. Thus a golden opportunity is going unattended.
People wonder who are to blame for this energy crisis. The answer relates oil to wars, specially the war in Iraq. And the situation further aggravated by the US threat to Iran for an imminent 'third world war' unless it abandons its nuclear programme which Iran claims as peaceful and having no relation to making a nuclear bomb.
But the burden of the surging oil prices is already hitting hard everywhere, especially the LDCs are taking the brunt of the escalating energy prices affecting GDP growth, poverty reduction and private sector development.
Bangladesh is witnessing slowdown in almost every sector of the economy, be it agriculture, transport or SMEs development. The soaring inflation mostly resulting from high cost of energy and imported food items are bringing severe setback last year after two floods and a devastating cyclone.
The Media Foundation for Trade and Development recently held a roundtable on the "Surging oil prices, its impact on development and the need for a global mitigation fund" in the city. As chief guest on the occasion, Finance Adviser Dr Mirza A B Azizul Islam said the Government is not having any problem in mitigating the oil bills as the reserves at the central bank is enough to meet the obligation. He also dismissed the idea of a global mitigation fund to support the balance of payment difficulties that the LDCs facing saying there is no scope for setting up such a fund and moreover, it can not be made functional. His views were however, privately contrasted by senior officials at the energy ministry when he said the country is not having difficulty with oil bills.
ADB's country dirctor Ms Hua Du however spoke about the perils that the LDCs are facing while paying for oil bills. She said a country can always borrow from IMF under various financing instruments. But the concept of global mitigation fund is interesting, she said suggesting it needs worldwide discussion and debate. "This is encouraging that the Media Foundation has organized the roundtable to stimulate the discussion," she said.
Hua refered to an UNDP initiative titled "Asia-Pacific Compensatory Oil Finance Facility" which has also organised a regional seminar in Bangkok in November last to take stock of the impact of surging oil prices on the regional countries. So the idea is that the situation cannot be contained without some sort of mitigation fund or measures.
The Media Foundation agues that since the OPEC members are collecting huge oil revenues annually and the international oil companies are similarly making enormous profits from oil they must contribute to a fund to mitigate the severe impact of soaring oil bills on the poor importing nations.
Presenting some business figures, the Media Foundation said the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell's revenue receipt for 2006 was 318.845 million and its net income was US$ 26.311 million. Chevron's net income for 2006 was US$ 17.1 billion and British Petroleum's profit for the period stood at US$ 22.00 billion. The seven oil sisters dominating the global energy market are thus slowly taking the entire global community as hostage by surging the oil prices.
OPEC member countries' contribution to the development of the global community remained at a very low level. Statistics showed OPEC Fund for International Development since its establishment in 1976 has disbursed only US$15 million to trade financing against an allocation of US$74 million to some recipient countries. The total fund it sanctioned so far stood at US$9 billion to 121 countries and the real disbursement stood around $4 billion covering public and private sector projects and grants.
There is another funding window, called King Fahad Bin Abdul Aziz OPEC Fund having a paid up capital of US$2.86 billion. But it seemed that they looked more like charities than having any real concerns for the global poor and the poorer nations.
The Media Foundation argues that global leaders must take initiative to stabilize the global oil market before it starts affecting the economies of the developed nations along with that of developing and the LDCs economies by way of slowing down the importing capacity of merchandise and other services from the developed countries. The great depression of the 1930s started from unrest in the stock market; the world economy may face new challenge and crisis this time from the oil shocks, said an expert. So the issue should not be side-tracked on the plea that it is now hurting only the LDCs or some developing nations, not others, he observed.
The Media Foundation has therefore called for the United Nations intervention to take a broader initiative to put in place some mitigation measures or set up the mitigation fund to address the oil related problems affecting the poorer and developing countries. It may put in place some mechanism whereby the OPEC and IOCs may make contribution to the mitigation fund when the oil prices will go beyond certain level such as US$50/barrel.
The IOCs are polluting air and contributing to global warming. They must pay for it and going beyond they must pay for the crisis generating in the global economy by pushing the energy prices skyrocketing.
The global leaders must decide whether they should protect some global corporate interest or save the civilisation from the growing challenges, experts argue.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
Many smell political ambition in
local govt strengthening move
Abdur Rahman Khan
The government's initiative to strengthen the local government bodies and the request for cooperation from their chairmen and members in electing "honest candidates" in the next elections have been perceived by many as manifestation of a political ambition with a long-term vision.
The Local Government and Rural Development (LGRD) Adviser Anwarul Iqbal categorically said the present caretaker government had no political ambition. Political analysts and many local government representatives, however, feel the issue was brought into the limelight at this moment to attain certain future political gain.
The government on June 3, 2007 constituted a seven-member committee on Accelerating and Strengthening Local Government headed by former secretary AMM Shawkat Ali. The committee submitted its report with recommendations to the government in November. The recommendations were announced at a grand conference of the elected representatives of local government institutes at the National Parade Ground on January 5. Chief Adviser Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed and Chief of Army Staff General Moeen U Ahmed addressed the rally.
The recommendations of the committee on Accelerating and Strengthening Local Government include raising the number of wards in every union council from nine to 15, setting the number of directly elected members of district councils, raising the percentage of reserved seats for women members from the existing 30 to 40 for the next three elections, recognising the elected chairmen of municipalities as mayors and the elected commissioners of municipalities and city corporations as councillors.
Some recommendations were also made on disqualifying a candidate from contesting the elections, which includes if a candidate is convicted of a criminal offence by a court and imprisoned for at least six months, he will not be eligible to contest any local government election in five years since his release from prison.
"We have planned to strengthen the local government bodies by providing them with additional revenue sources and logistic supports," LGRD Adviser Anwarul Iqbal told The Holiday. Of the existing 4,500 union parishads, 1,060 have been included under the Local Government Support Project (LGSP) on the basis of their better performance than the rest as reflected in their audit reports, he said.
The initial announcement of the interim government was to hand over power to an elected government as soon as possible, then came the drive against corruption, political reform, and a roadmap for election, and lately the local government issue has come into focus, indicating a nascent political ambition of the present regime, observed Dr Nurul Amin, a professor of political science at Dhaka University.
Professor Amin believes the political desire involving the local government representatives might face difficulties this time as they have strong political affiliations with the political parties that are now being condemned by the present regime for corruption and misrule. Moreover, the donors' support for the LGSP may lose credibility under the pressure of price spiral of essential commodities and resulting growing public dissatisfaction.
Professor Dr Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, a social scientist and chairman of JANIPOP, an election monitoring body, said one may smell something political in the government move when he finds the head of the committee on local government, AMM Shawkat Ali, is being inducted in the council of advisers soon after he completed his report on strengthening local government.
The civil society members who initiated the campaign for honest and fair candidates are now silent as many of them have been rewarded with lucrative positions in the government. The donors and international bodies, like the World Bank and the Amnesty International, are careful not to put pressure on the caretaker government to hand over power to an elected government soon but appear to be more interested in strengthening the interim government itself. The donors are actually interested in a stable Bangladesh market of about 145 million people, Professor Kalimullah said.
Madaripur Municipality Chairman Chowdhury Nurul Alam, popularly known as Babu Chowdhury, who attended the grand rally of local government representatives, said a similar conference was organised by former president HM Ershad in 1984. Babu Chowdhury is not certain about any political intention of the present regime but he noticed a basic difference between the present initiative and Ayub Khan's basic democracy involving the elected local government representatives. In Ayub-introduced basic democracy people used to elect basic democrats, equivalent to present local government representatives, who formed the electoral college which, in its turn, would elect the members of parliaments. But, in the present system, people will directly elect both the local government representatives and the members of parliaments. He rather welcomed the government's move to increase the honorariums of elected representatives and secretaries of local government bodies.
Motaleb Biswas, chairman of Isali union parishad of Jessore, who have been elected chairman thrice and attended the last week's grand rally, on the other hand, did smell a political ambition in involving the local government representatives. Many of the participants in the rally did not like the remarks made about the politicians in general, he said.
Lutfor Rahman, who was selected as the best union parishad chairman of Dinajpur district, was not clear as to why the conference was held in Dhaka at the fag end of the local governments' tenure. The five-year tenure of the union parishads will end in February or March. The proposal to hold the local government elections simultaneously with the parliamentary polls was also something confusing to him.
Mohammad Ali Khan, a member of Jagannathpur union parishad of Kushtia, was rather happy to know that his honorarium would be raised, the parishad would get revenue support directly from new sources, and it would be free from the control of upazila nirbahi officer, deputy commissioner or lawmakers.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
CG should look back and look forward
Mohammad Ali Sattar
The present caretaker government (CG) took over amidst turbulent circumstances on this day last year when violence and a civil war of sorts were raging. The country was never faced with such a great divide among its populace. The nation witnessed united movements many times before but that was unified violence. The loathing among the parties reached such extent that a young man was clobbered to death in broad daylight. Intense hatred was the rule of the day.
The armed forces backed the new CG and the new chief adviser told the nation that this government had come not only to hold a free and fair election but also to eradicate corruption. To this end the people witnessed something that they never did in the last 36 years. The formation of the task force was aimed at netting in the big corrupt people.
Overnight, some politicians turned reformists, NBR talked about unpaid taxes, bankers talked about black money, businessmen expressed their desire to be involved in fair dealing, the electronic media swamped with talk shows for democracy and rule of law and lawyers began advocating for depoliticising the judiciary.
After one year, let's take a closer look at its performance. In the mind of the public the CG has failed to mitigate the economic hardship of the people. Skyrocketing prices of the essentials have pushed the common people to the walls.
Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed was sworn in as the Chief Adviser of the new government by President Dr. Iajuddin Ahmed. The 10 advisers were chosen.
Politics
The principal task of the new government, as mentioned earlier, was to root out corruption and ensure rule of law including holding a free and fair national polls. It started with the formation of a Task Force, which was entrusted to catch the graft suspects other corrupt elements. Immediately after takeover, the joint forces started a massive crackdown on the corrupt elements. People heard about 'minus two formula'. The then Law Adviser underscored the need for a clean and democratic political parties and individuals. There was great deal of talk about 'seeing off' the two former Prime Ministers from politics. The press and the electronic media were replete with the development stories of how Khaleda Zia and Hasina were being pressured to give up politics on any acceptable conditions. Nothing really worked.
Then we saw the reformists emerge. The Awami League leaders read out their own set of reform agenda, which were all soon forgotten. The BNP saw a rift between the secretary general Mannan Bhuiyan and the party chief Khaleda Zia, who spoke to her party men via video conferencing and cell phone. Mannan Bhuiyan came up with his reform proposals, mainly aimed at curtailing the chairperson's power. Nothing worked.
The government wanted to bring about an irrefutable end to these crises and come out with unsullied faces to initiate new politics of cleaner souls. This also really did not work thus far.
The net result of the year long political exercise was the emergence of old faces under new banners. The people who formed new political parties are still to be weathered, but by all counts do not stand any chance to win people's confidence.
The government still has to go a long way in bringing about reforms in the political parties. It gradually appears an impracticable task.
Crackdown
The first significant catch was Ghiyasuddin Mamun, a close associate of Tarek Rahman who amassed wealth out of proportion. He soon became the talk of the nation. Then the political heavyweights were arrested followed by business tycoons.
The chief forest conservator along with his family was caught for eating up the forests and taking bribe. The mayor of Chittagong was involved in multiple crimes in his area. From cutting down the mountains and hills to limitless crimes at the Chittagong Port. Mayors of Sylhet, Barisal and Rajshahi were also held for countless crimes they committed while in public office.
Once powerful ministers like Barristers Moudud Ahmed, Nazmul Huda and Salaudin Kader Chowdhury, Awami League Secretary general Abdul Jalil, Sheikh Selim, Mohiuddin K Alamgir was interned. Lesser ministers and MPs from both the major parties were taken in on a regular basis.
With the arrest of Tarek Rahman people began to have more confidence in the Government's intentions. Finally, chief of Awami League, Sheikh Hasina was taken into custody. Afterwards the immediate past PM Khaleda Zia was arrested.
The massive anti corruption drive by the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) created ripples in the society and it is hoped that the ongoing drive will force the villains to keep their heads down for a while. The ACC has appointed prominent lawyers to fight their cases in the court of law. The appointments of legal experts were also talked about and it was reported that many lawyers refused to be in the ACC panel of lawyers. Nevertheless the Commission went ahead under the headship of Lt. Gen. Hasan Mashud Chowdhury. The ACC had to fight off many legal notices against it. The achievement of the ACC deserves commendation in that a country like ours there's no sector which is not rotten.
The head of the NBR was dynamic and appeared to be the right selection. He kept on telling people to pay taxes and declare their wealth. This was also a good move by the government. And the immediate past chairman of NBR was doing a nice job. Quite often he made it public that the government had managed to realize huge amount in taxes within the first six months. But the way the NBR was going did not please some quarters. He had to go because, as he said, he "was unable to please master". This was not a correct move by the government. The tax realisation process has slowed down since his departure.
The task forces took their seats on the rots of Rajuk. Many unscrupulous owners of this business were nabbed for their crimes in connivance with corrupt Rajuk officials. Stories of cheating and highest degrees of unfair means were unearthed. Soon the real estate business saw a slump.
The Election Commission: The much talked about and controversial appointments at the EC were done away with. New Chief Election Commissioner was appointed followed by three commissioners. Reforms were undertaken. The CEC took up the task of reforms, including the voter list issue with earnestness. Although the road map for national polls were announced amid apprehension. The ambitious national ID card project was taken up and goes on till date.
The CEC announced with conviction that the national elections will be held by the end of 2008. This was time and again endorsed by the CA and the Army Chief.
The very important achievement of the CG was the implantation of the court orders of separating Judiciary from the Executive. This was a notable move. People hope the Judiciary will henceforth function without fear and favor.
In a later development the concept of a Truth Commission was floated. The idea is to offer an opportunity to the businesses persons to confess their guilt of wrongdoing and pay off fines to avoid punishment. The politicians also demanded that they be brought under truth commission.
People want that the Government should be totally impartial and neutral. If the Truth Commission is actually set up it should not serve the interest of a few, rather it should be opened up for all including politicians.
The Truth Commission is a noble concept for the greater interest of the country; but this opportunity offered to the wrongdoers may not be used in the right spirit. The Government should be careful about the proper use of the commission. The Commission should not be a refuge of those who plundered the people's wealth in name of business.
Unattended areas
The CG did not pay attention to some important areas like industries, health, communications and tourism sectors. The crisis ridden garments sector was somehow limping forward after the recent crisis.
The communications sector remained untouched. The Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA), which is a den of corruption, has not been taken to task. It is alleged that more than 90 per cent of the driving licenses are fake and thousands of vehicles (big and small, private and public) are running with forged documents. The entire traffic system is in a horrible mess.
The proceedings against the arrested high-ups, both political and business, were not handled with maturity. The cases put up against many were challenged in the courts and many were declared illegal by the High Court. The fight goes on till today.
The unprofessional demolition method of Rangs Bhaban caused death to 10 innocent lives. Who is going to take the responsibility of this accident?
The decision of sending the valuable artifacts to Paris for exhibition was another blunder. It ended up in ignominy.
With the resignation of four advisers last week and inducting new faces may not make major difference. Yet we hope for the best.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
'THE SON ALSO RISES'
Teenage Bilawal impresses London media
Irfan Husain
IT was a scene Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari's mother would have loved: a room packed with journalists, TV cameras and microphones, with the world watching and listening to every word.
The Gore Hotel at Queen's Gate in London was the setting for a press conference for Benazir Bhutto's son, the newly-anointed chairman of the Pakistan People's Party. Half an hour before the scheduled appearance of young Bilawal at 11am on Tuesday, there was not even standing room left in the rather small conference hall. Some of London's best-known journalists were forced to sit on the floor or stand in corners.
Flanked by aunt Sanam Bhutto and Wajid Shamsul Hasan on the right, and historian Victoria Schofield, Bilawal was calm and composed as he read his prepared statement. Basically, he explained that he was made the chairman of the PPP "because it was recognised at this moment of crisis the party needed a close association with my mother through the blood line... Politics is also in my blood. And although I admit that my experience to date is limited, I intend to learn."
He went on to appeal for privacy during his student life, asking that he be "left alone" during his time at Oxford.
He concluded the short statement by asserting that he and his family did not believe that a government inquiry into his mother's assassination would reveal the truth, citing the destruction of forensic evidence.
The question-and-answer session was moderated by Simon Walker, a friend of the Bhutto family, and during the next half an hour, Bilawal fielded questions from some of the toughest journalists in London.
The bulk of the grilling was focussed on getting Bilawal's take on why he was appointed to head Pakistan's biggest political party, given his inexperience, his age, and the fact that he had spent most of his life out of the country.
Jeremy Paxman, considered the attack dog of TV interviewers, asked Bilawal bluntly how he expected to relate to Pakistan's people and its problems as he had hardly ever lived there.
A few pointed queries made it clear that people here did not think much of dynastic politics. Paxman made the point by accusing the Bhuttos of treating the PPP as a piece of 'family furniture' to be handed down as an inheritance. Lyse Doucet from the BBC asked if he would heal the rifts in the Bhutto family by reaching out to his cousins. And one pointed question about Asif Zardari's reputation being a handicap in his running the PPP would have embarrassed any son.
Sensibly, Bilawal kept his answers simple and short. Where his mother would have used her eloquence and her experience to use each question as a platform for a speech, her son was conscious of his limitations.
When he was asked about the possibility of his father's reputation losing votes, he simply made the point that Asif Zardari had served over eight years in jail without any charge being proved against him. He added that if people felt uncomfortable with the PPP's choice of leadership, they would not vote for it.
Apart from being relaxed under so much pressure, Bilawal showed glimpses of a wry sense of humour. When asked if he feared for his life, he answered: "Actually, I fear more for my privacy than I do for my life."
Low-key, almost subdued, he showed a hint of passion when asked what would happen to the PPP if there were no more Bhuttos to lead it. Defiantly, he rapped the table and exclaimed: "A Bhutto will emerge from every house in Pakistan!" And poignantly, he made the point that with his mother, "Pakistan had lost its best hope for democracy, but not its only hope."
After the press conference was over, a few hardened journalists stayed behind to exchange their impressions. The consensus was that the young man had been impressive in a quiet sort of way. He certainly lacked the Bhutto flamboyance that was so evident in his mother and grandfather. But he had a certain gravitas unusual in somebody his age.
There was a reserve, perhaps cultivated deliberately to ward off a prying media during a turbulent childhood, that was beyond his years. Even Paxman, a journalist who has probably devoured more politicians than he has hot meals, agreed that Bilawal had handled himself very well under trying circumstances.
Courtesy: DAWN, Karachi
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
EU SCRAPS CEILING ON CHINESE IMPORTS
Bangladesh apparels gear up
for intens competition
Asjadul Kibria
Apparel exports of Bangladesh have entered a new global competitive era from the very first day of the new year, 2008. It, however, was not unexpected. The European Union, a major destination of Bangladesh's leading exports, has scrapped the ceilings on Chinese imports with effect from January 1, 2008. This gives the Chinese exporters an opportunity to expand their market in the EU. It was in June 2005 when the EU unilaterally imposed ceilings on import of 10 categories of Chinese-origin textile and clothing products. The idea was to limit the inflow of cheaper Chinese products. Limits between 8 and 12.5 per cent growth from a specified base period had been imposed on these exports to the EU. The categories were T-shirt, pullover, men's trousers, blouse, dresses, bra, bed linen, and flax yarn.
A number of these items are also important export products of Bangladesh, like T-shirt and trousers. This restriction, along with other facilities, helped the country's readymade garment export to the EU market maintain a robust growth. In fact, Bangladesh's RMG export marked a momentum of growth during the post-multi-fibre agreement period, after abolition of the global quota system for textile trade.
Traders and experts believe that although the elimination of the ceiling on Chinese exports to the EU would put the local exports in a more competitive situation, there was nothing to be worried about as the Bangladesh RMG sector has consolidated significantly over the years. They, however, stressed enhancing productivity to maintain growth and market share.
'There will be more competition, especially in the EU market,' said Professor Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of the local think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue. 'But Chinese products are not and will not be eligible for existing zero-tariff facilities enjoyed by the Bangladeshi products. So, there is a strong ground to face the enhanced competition.'
The EU has given Bangladesh duty-free market access for all products except arms under its Generalised System of Preference (GSP) scheme, which later extended as EBA (Everything But Arms) initiative. The GSP facility is seen as a major reason for Bangladesh's tremendous success in export, especially of RMG, to the EU today.
Mustafizur Rahman, at the same time, emphasised upgrading productivity through improvement of infrastructure and reduction of cost of doing business in the country.
In a similar vein, Bangladesh Knitwear Manufactures and Exporters' Association President Fazlul Haque said there would be an intensified competition, 'But the industry is ready to face it and there is nothing to be panicked about.'
Knitwear export has already posted reasonable growth, he said, adding that further consolidation was required to sustain it in the long run. But during the first four months of the current fiscal year, the combined RMG exports fell well short of the target. Export earnings from woven garments stood at $1.43 billion and knitwear exports at $1.59 billion in the July-October period of fiscal year 2007-08. While the export receipts from woven garments slipped by around 9.5 per cent from that in the same period of FY07, the earnings from knitwear exports dropped only marginally, by 0.60 per cent.
'There was a sharp decline in July and we have yet to recover the lag fully,' said Fazlul Haque. 'But, we will be on the full track soon.' In fact, knitwear has emerged as the number one export earning product of the country replacing the woven garments. However, due to lack of adequate supply capacity and the stringent EU Rules of Origin, Bangladesh is unable to realise the full potential benefits of the preferential treatment provided by the EU. On tariff side, the weighted average import duty on all Bangladeshi products in the EU market was 11.78 per cent. In case of RMG, the duty was 11.96 per cent, for woven garments 11.91 per cent, and for knit garments 12 per cent.
Meanwhile, the EU's withdrawal of quota imposed on Chinese textile has been virtually replaced by a joint monitoring system with China over most types of garments arriving to the European market, which makes some quarters fear a repeat of the flood of cheap Chinese clothes in Europe. In 2006, the EU suffered a trade deficit of around $165 billion with China, with officials predicting that the figure would shoot up to $220 billion by the end of 2007.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
ACCORD SOON ON KALADAN PROJECT
India to connect northeast with Bay of Bengal through Myanmar
Nava Thakuria in Guwahati
The Indian government has been preparing for signing an agreement soon with Myanmar on the widely talked-about Kaladan project. New Delhi has been planning to develop a port in Sittwe, the capital of northwest Myanmar province of Rakhine (previously known as Arakan). Styled the Kaladan Multimodal Project, it includes developing the Kaladan River to connect northeast India with the Bay of Bengal through a road link from Kalewa in Myanmar to Aizawl, the capital of Indian state of Mizoram. The Sittwe is nearly 400km off Aizawl.
"The Kaladan project with a budget of $120 million will be a 'build, transfer, and use' (BTU) project and will be financed by a grant by the government of India to its neighbour," said Indian Junior Commerce Minister Jairam Ramesh. Speaking to the media in Chennai recently, Ramesh also said the final agreement on the project was likely to be signed during the visit of a high-level Myanmar delegation to India in April.
"New Delhi wants to connect the northeast India with commercial sea routes. Moreover, with the development of Sittwe port and upgrading the navigability of the Kaladan River, the region is expected to have another viable access to the Association of South East Asian Nations," Ramesh argued during a recent visit to the northeast India. He also said the envisaged arrangements would allow movement of cargo ships from Sittwe to any Indian port.
The northeast, comprising Asom, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Sikkim, is surrounded by Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. With a cumulative population of nearly 50 million, the region is connected to the mainland by way of a chicken neck in North Bengal. More precisely, only two per cent of the region's territory is attached with the country.
Conceived and proposed by the Indian foreign ministry in 2003, the project, having obtained approval from the Planning Commission, has also been okayed by the Myanmar government. The Kaladan flows from Mizoram to Sittwe (formerly Akyab) across another Burmese state, Chin, and is the biggest waterway in the region. The coastal region in western Myanmar is separated from the mainland by the Rakhine Yoma mountain range. Sittwe port at the mouth of the Kaladan on the Rakhine coast is an important harbour that emerged as a centre of rice export after British occupation in 1826. Earlier, it was a small fishing and farming community.
The Kaladan project, which will include shipping and river and road transportation, is estimated to take four years to implement and will include construction of roads from Kalewa to Saiha at Mizoram border. Later, this road will be connected with India's National Highway 54 inside Mizoram. The project will be implemented by Rail India Technical Economic Services, a public-sector organisation of India, and is expected to be commissioned by 2009.
New Delhi's move to invest in a Myanmar port assumes significance in view of Dhaka's reluctance to give India access to Chittagong port, which is nearer to the northeast India, less than 200km off Agartala, the capital of Tripura. Moreover, the Bangladesh government has been showing unwillingness to let India install a gas pipeline from Myanmar to Kolkata across its territory.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
GILMPSES OF THE GREAT
Elvis Presley
K. Z. Islam
Elvis Presley (1935-1977) was a king of Rock who could not cope with his "royal" status. The fame, the fan worship, the ready availability of unlimited money, women, drugs and whatever else he craved for were too much for him to handle. He wanted it all . . . and it killed him.
In December 1970 Elvis on the decline suddenly wanted to start a campaign against drugs. On 19 December 1970 while on a singing assignment in Las Vegas he suddenly walked out alone. His entourage were mystified. For the first time he was travelling alone - without even one bodyguard. Elvis did not even know his own phone number; nor did he carry cash. How was he going to get around? Arrangements had always been made for him. Elvis got a commercial plane to Washington DC with the intention of meeting President Nixon. At the airport, Jerry, one of his companions caught up with him. All Jerry had was five hundred dollars with him.
During the flight Elvis befriended a young soldier just returning from Vietnam. The soldier must have told him his life story. Before the plane landed Elvis asked Jerry for the five hundred dollars and handed it over to the young man, wishing him good luck. Jerry said, "Elvis, that's all we have." Elvis responded with, "Yea, but he needs it worse than I do."
During the flight Elvis spent his time writing a letter to the President. Beginning "Dear Mr. President, First I would like to introduce myself. I am Elvis Presley . . ." the rock star expressed a desire to be made a "Federal Agent at Large" in order to communicate with and report on what he felt rebellious factions threatening America. He believed his star-status would allow him a non-threatening entrance into the closed environment of these groups. A Federal Law Appointment would give him credibility.
Elvis had arrived at the White House at 6:30 am and he was dressed in black, including his black cape, sunglasses his large ornamental belt. Elvis introduced himself and handed the guard his letter to the President. The guard immediately recognised Elvis, but followed protocol and asked for permission to send him on to the White House. Elvis's arrival ignited a flurry of activity among the White House staff. White House aide Dwight Chapman sent a quick memo to his boss Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman. Chapman attached Elvis's letter and advised that the President meet the rock star. Haldeman concurred and Elvis was scheduled to meet with Nixon at 12:30 that afternoon.
Supplied with talking points prepared by his staff President Nixon met with Elvis in the Oval office.
The meeting opened with pictures taken of the President and Elvis Presley.
Presley immediately began showing the President his law enforcement paraphernalia including badges from police departments in California, Colorado and Tennessee. Presley indicated that he had been playing Las Vegas and the President indicated that he was aware of how difficult it is to perform in Las Vegas.
The President mentioned that he thought Presley could reach young people, and that it was important for Presley to retain his credibility. Presley responded that he did his thing by singing. He said he could not get to the kids if he made a speech on stage, that he had to reach them in his own way. The President nodded agreement.
At the conclusion of the meeting, Presley again told the President how much he supported him, and then in a surprising, spontaneous gesture, put his left arm around the President and hugged him.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
PAKISTAN SCENARIO
Beware of the anger of the people
Fakir S. Ayazuddin in Karachi
The rage of the people erupted on the death of Benazir was unbridled, savage and blind. It was ferocious in intensity but without ethnic overtones. The fury engulfed all the provinces-it was a truly national rage. Asif Zardari, even at his angriest could not match the fury of the peasant who with his tears shed more hatred on his masters than they could ever imagine.
She had the hearts of the masses and they rose and lashed out blindly, for this was their benefactor who would lead them from their wretched existence. She had given them hope, and this had been snatched from them in seconds, filmed as it happened and watched by a disbelieving populace.
The Shooter, impeccably dressed, complete with Ray-Bans goggles - as we all watched - looked straight into the camera with almost a contemptuous sneer, went about his deadly assignment. We shivered at his aplomb. I can imagine him describing the operation to 'M'. This could not have been scripted better by Ian Fleming. But having done his job, he escaped from the scene in a puff of smoke and a loud bang. Forty bodies littered in his wake in front of a live audience - a Houdini masterpiece.
The assassin had removed the hopes of a cross section of people, from the Makhdooms of Sind, Pirs of the Punjab, the Khans of the Frontier, and the Balouch tribals, where she had just recently condoled in Quetta with the Bugtis and the Marris, as is the custom, a few days before she herself was cut down. She knew her tribal duties, and as a Bhutto she performed them.
However, the country is plunged into the most serious crisis that we have faced in 30 years. The Nation has been brought to the brink of a civil war, and we are lucky to have survived the last three days. We are watching with bated breath for the next dawn.
But the anger of the people simmering under the surface, and under the brutal jackboot of the Rangers, no nonsense police, visible in riot gear will be difficult in a face off-till their next opportunity. It isn't over yet.
Politics being what it is, the battle lines are being drawn, and the mud slinging is about to begin with the PPP taking the first shots by coining the epithet Qatil League. The name-calling will now begin. Assuredly there is much time before February 18, and as in every election worldwide, the skeletons will be made visible and dirty linen washed in public. With 42 television channels, and some excellent talk show hosts, we the Pakistani public are about to be kept entertained for a long time. The CJ parade was just a trailer, the main show is about to start.
The one over riding fear is that violence may infuse itself into the equation, for I cannot see another assassination in the near future without a slide into anarchy. The anger over Benazir's brutal murder has not yet been fully assuaged, and with inept caretakers, a catastrophe is waiting to happen.
All the political forces are divided and pulling in different directions. With the incompetence of the caretakers, and the Pakistani penchant for conspiracies, the Toyota Company had to give a public statement that their vehicle was innocent and could not be the murder weapon!
The last eight years have shown the credibility factor to be the chink in the Governments armour, and shows no sign of improvement. Inviting Scotland Yard looks good but some section officer will make a hash of it.
We must be careful that the stability of Pakistan is of paramount interest, and a bloodbath is too horrible to allow or even contemplate. This would open the flood gates for all the adventurers already in our midst to carve their own areas of influence, and we would have a fractured province, and then a fractured country. But Pakistan as we know it will be destroyed.
The political Parties should decide whether their short term goals are worth the possible loss of the Federation or a part thereof. The rhetoric must be curbed, and the approaches to the foreign powers and to the Army. These are unconstitutional measures, and may invite a further intervention of eight years.
^ TOP OF THIS PAGE ^ MAIN PAGE
|
