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EDITORIAL
Horror of global warming: UN, UNEP must act
Extreme horror stunned those who went through the appalling news item that forecast the other day the impending doom, a cataclysm, of apocalyptic dimension for this country never imagined before. The US space agency NASA's study says Bangladesh will be devoured by the sea as its level will rise and swell consequent upon global warming that has been melting polar icecap for many years. The catastrophe is sure to severely affect millions of men and women of this country.
When people read veteran Indian journalist Padma Bhushan M.V. Kamath's venomous article in which he disdainfully says "Bangladesh, in the first place, has no right to exist", they find in his utterance an outburst of pathological aversion to this country and its ethos. But this research finding causes very real concern. Released on June 23, the story says that the melting polar ice caps could cause sea levels to rise by up to 25 metres, causing Bangladesh to disappear entirely under water by the turn of the century, according to predictions of climate change.
Entitled "Bangladesh is set to disappear under the waves by the end of the century," the report attributes the grim prediction to Professor Jim Hansen, the director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, "whose climate calculations have proved to be more accurate than anybody else's", the report claims.
What can be more dangerous than this that with all her rich heritage, history, antiquity, virtues, aesthetics, literature, culture and so on this deltaic flood-plane will be eternally submerged under the sea? The horrid scenario of the land -- adored by Rabindranath, Nazrul and umpteen other great men to be vanished under sea after several decades -- gives an uncanny, horrendous sensation, a nightmarish feeling the like of which had never been felt in the million years' in this territory. Thus the gravest hazard looms large which is impossible to avert individually; it will require an international strategy to find out a way out.
Who is to blame? Obviously, human action; and Nature is going to strike back. Bangladesh is expected to be among the countries worst affected by rising global temperatures as a result of human-induced climate change, along with a handful of small island states. NASA scientists calculated that if countries continue to release as little as 5 to 10 per cent of the ozone-destroying chemicals they now emit, the hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica will persist for another century. Mentionably, American company DuPont alone produces 25 per cent of the world's chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and 74 per cent of the CFCs in India are used in refrigeration and air-conditioning that deplete the ozone layer.
Scientists also predict that Bangladesh will experience rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, rising sea levels as a result of melting polar ice caps could submerge large swathes of the country's coastal belt and southern region.
With unmitigated emissions, sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the 2080s, and this is estimated to increase the annual number of people flooded from 13 million to 94 million. 60 per cent of this increase will occur in southern Asia.
The SAARC summit held in Dhaka last week made deliberations on the vulnerabilities for which collective initiative is needed. Since long scientists, environmentalists have been sounding an alarm against the impact of global warming. Former US vice president Al Gore in his Earth in the Balance cautioned about the greenhouse gasses emitted primarily by the USA and other industrialised Western countries which so far showed a nonchalant attitude to the global hazard scaring the Earth dwellers in the face. What is most crucial now is: the UNEP and the UN shall have to adopt a special action plan to protect the vast army of humans in Bangladesh and adjoining countries from the doomsday scenario.
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'WORLD WAR III TO BEGIN IN M.E.': NOSTRADAMUS
Possible consequences of Israeli attack on Iran
Barrister Harun ur Rashid
During the first week of June, Israel reportedly carried out a major military exercise that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The exercise involved more than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece.
The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refuelling tankers flew more than 1,400 kilometres or 900 miles, about the same distance as between Israel and the Iranian uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Analysts say that Israeli exercise has two purposes: one Israeli goal is to practice flight tactics, aerial refuelling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and second to give the US and other countries that Israel is prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts fail to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium.
At the same time, Israel embarked on a massive diplomatic initiative by signalling Syria, even Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas - the Palestinian organisation - which it deemed terror body until now, that it is ready to make peace with them.
This sudden burst of peace initiative on the part of Jewish nation is ominous and baffling which has prompted most experts to believe that there is more to it than meets the eye.
It was no coincident that while US President George Bush toured Europe to press the international community to stop Tehran from nuclear enrichment Israeli defence forces conducted major exercises in a run-up to an attack on Tehran's nuclear installations
It may be recalled that on 6th June, Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli Defence Minister, now a Deputy Prime Minister, warned in a recent interview with an Israeli newspaper that Israel might have no choice but to attack. Later Israeli officials have told that Mofaz's statement does not represent official policy.
Many however believe that Mofaz divulged the real intention of Israel, and officials want to cover it up by saying it does not represent official view.
Israel got away in 1981 when it destroyed Iraqi nuclear plant at Osirak. Last September, its jets bombed a structure in Syria that US officials said housed a plutonium-producing nuclear reactor built with the aid of North Korea. It is reported on 23rd June, a UN nuclear inspector is expected to be visiting Syria to establish whether Syria was hiding a secret nuclear programme.
Iran's response
Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari said on 7th June that Iran's armed forces are prepared to detect and repel any potential attack against the country's nuclear facilities.
After overseeing a military exercise aimed at detecting and destroying mock targets in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, Maj. Gen. Jafari asserted that Iran's army is equipped with cutting-edge military warfare enabling it to instantly respond to any act of aggression.
The manoeuvre, which was a rehearsal of different passive defence methods, included torpedo and missile speedboat drills, sources told Press TV.
Maj. Gen. Jafari's remarks came a day after over 100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s staged a manoeuvre off the southern Mediterranean Sea in the first week of June.
Iran's Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najar reportedly said: "Iran will not begin any conflict but will punish any aggressor with force. With determination and using all the options-without limit in time and space-we will give a destructive response to any hostile action."
The consequences
Experts here warned that any attack on Iran could trigger a response which could undermine world peace for decades to come.
"A military invasion against Iran would pose great danger to the Middle East and the world," the head of International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed El- Baradei warned in an interview to Dubai-based television station. It would turn the Middle East region "into a fireball', he observed grimly.
"I don't believe that what I see in Iran today is a current, grave and urgent danger. If a military strike is carried out against Iran at this time ... it would make me unable to continue my work," said the IAEA chief.
El-Baradei, repeatedly stressed that a military strike would be the worst result for the region, and added that an attack would give Iran more motivation to obtain nuclear power.
Russia's Foreign Minister warned against the use of force on Iran, saying there is no proof it is trying to build nuclear weapons.
Any an attack by Israel would push up oil prices, and though Iran could disrupt shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf, its weak economy depends on oil revenues.
Increasingly military analysts are warning of severe consequences if the US or Israel begin a shooting war with Iran. While Iranian forces are no match for American technology on a conventional battlefield, Iran has shown that it can respond in ways that has baffled the experts and military analysts.
Iranian networks in Iraq and Afghanistan could imperil US interests there; American forces throughout the Gulf region could be targeted by asymmetric methods and lethal rocket barrages; and Iranian partners across the region - such as Hezbollah in Lebanon - could be mobilised to engage in an anti-US fight.
Israeli brinkmanship
Iran's response could also be global, analysts say, but the scale would depend on the scale of the US attack. "One very important issue from a US intelligence perspective, [the Iranian reaction] is probably more unpredictable than the Al Qaeda threat," Magnus Ranstorp at the Centre for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defence College in Stockholm was quoted by a western newspaper.
"I doubt very much our ability to manage some of the consequences," said Mr Ranstorp, noting that Iranian revenge attacks in the past have been marked by "plausible deniability" and have had global reach.
"If you attack Iran you are unleashing a firestorm of reaction internally that will only strengthen revolutionary forces, and externally in the region," says Ranstorp. "It's a nightmare scenario for any contingency planner, and I think you really enter the twilight zone if you strike Iran."
Though the US military has since early 2007 accused Iran's Qods Force - an elite element of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - of providing anti-US militias in Iraq with lethal roadside bombs, and of training and backing "special groups" in actions that the US government alleges have cost "thousands" of lives, US commanders have played down Iran's military capabilities.
Even Admiral William Fallon, who publicly opposed a US strike on Iran before he resigned in April, dismissed Iran as a military threat.
Some analysts say that Israeli attack on Iran might commence a Third World War which the famous French astrologer Nostradamus (1503-1566) predicted that the Third World War would start from the Middle East.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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VIEW POINT
Maoist Nepal: Is it a danger to the region?
A M M Shahabuddin
Some are likely to say 'yes', while others may hold the opposite view. However, undoubtedly, the majority of the states belonging to this region would like to prefer a peaceful co-existence with the Maoist-led Nepal - former guerrillas who wanted to abolish the 240-year old absolute monarchy through a 'People's War'. But now that they had changed their strategy to achieve the goal peacefully through a democratic process and in the process most unexpectedly won majority in the newly elected Constituent Assembly held in April last.
The most surprising Maoist victory in the last general election dealing an unthinkable crushing defeat to the hither to two strong political parties - the Nepali Congress and its ally, the Nepal Communist Party (UML-NCP) - had stunned the whole world. In fact, nobody had ever dreamt of it. It has actually demolished the 'dreams' of the vested quarters which had so far enjoyed influence using the reigning kings as their 'instrument of action'. Nepal's next-door neighbour India and its most powerful nuclear ally, the US together appear equally worried.
The Birendra killing
Let us recall here some events that had made the Maoists more powerful and aggressive. In fact, Nepal's political fortune became cloudy with the gruesome murder of former Nepalese Royal family members including king Birendra, his Queen at a family get-together by a drunken Prince who later killed himself. Following this shocking massacre, Gyanendra, the younger brother of late king Birendra appeared as the scene and was crowned as the new king of Nepal. But the Nepalese accepted him with much hesitation and suspicion as there was already rumours floating in the air that Gyanendra had his hands is the conspiracy hatched by his friends to remove Birendra as he had fallen from the grace. The people became all the more suspicious about Gyanendra's 'role', when he hastened to say that the killing of Birendra was due to "accidental" automatic weapons power!
The murky situation further aggravated when the Nepali Congress's out-going PM Koirala in an interview with Kathmandu Post had "threatened to expose", what he said, was a "grand design" behind the killing of Birendra and promised "to expose everything at an opportune time." Meanwhile, Koirala became PM and so far nothing had been heard from him about his promised "disclosure." Perhaps he is still waiting for the "opportune time".
The situation further worsened for king Gyanendra when he cracked down on the Maoists, at the instance of others, to put an end to their bloody agitation to abolish monarchy, which in effect boomeranged on Gyanendra himself. It made the path easier for the Maoists to give up their war path and decided to proceed through a democratic process by participating in the up-coming election. That ultimately brought a fair-weather game for them in which pro-monarchy parties had their worst drubbings at the hands of the Maoists.
Maoists blame CIA and RAW
Meanwhile, the Maoists became bolder and had the guts to openly allege that the US intelligence, CIA, and Indian intelligence agency RAW had "conspired" to kill Birendra as he was showing too much 'softness' towards China. King Birendra once totally ignored India's advice, which Nepal used to receive from them and entered into defence talks with China without taking New Delhi's consent. As a result, Nepal had to face strict economic sanctions imposed by India, perhaps to teach Nepal a good lesson. One Maoist leader Babu Rum Bhattarai, in an article in a leading Nepalese newspaper Kantipur Daily, alleged that king Birendra was like "dust" in the eyes of what he called "the American imperialists and Indian colonialists."
Now the big question is: How India, which had enjoyed great influence on Nepal's affairs, both internal and external, would like to establish its new relationship with the newly declared secular and democratic country? And, securely, how America, when Bush's last days are running fast, creating more problems for America than solving them, putting a 'tag' on Maoists as 'terrorists', can proceed to hold talks with the Maoist before they could take off the 'terrorist' tag from them?
Apparently, India is likely to be more worried because it is already being adversely affected by the rapidly spreading Maoist network in some of the Indian provinces. And the recent victory of the Maoists in Nepal to capture power and oust the king from the Palace, who had been so far worshipped as an incarnation of God Vishnu might further encourage the Indian Maoists in spreading their tentacles throughout India. Besides, they are already in comfortable position in 14 states out of 29 Indian states.
But whatever might be the policy of the present congress-led coalition government, it is unlikely to go and burn its fingers. But internal situation in India as indicated recently looks not so encouraging. There seems to appear patches of dark clouds hovering on the horizon, providing a field-day for extreme nationalist Hindu forces fanned by BJP, and its allies Shiv Sena and RSS. According to media reports, leaders at a recent annual conference of Kathmandu-based world Hindu Federation in Northern India, had "vowed an armed struggle" to save king Gyandra from losing the throne and "pledged" to protect the king "at all cost." (Perhaps this will be the beginning of the struggle to reinstate the already dethroned king!) And a Hindu priest of a well-known temple there said that Gyanendra "is worthy of worshiping by all Hindus," adding that "we would bring him back to power at all cost, reminding that "ending of the kingship is like defeating Hidusim." What more you want to fuel the fire?
As regards America, it is a more delicate question not only for the gradually waning Bush Administration, but also for the next President, whether a Democrat Obama or Republican Mc Cains. As some US analysts had pointed out that the success of the Maoists "is being received with great uneasiness in the US government," as the US govt, "was taken by surprise" at the success story of the Maoists, because America had been the chief supplier of arms to the former kings of Nepal to crush the Maoist movement. But it backfired and the Bush Administration had to swallow. In short, America's Nepal policy is now in shambles.
Only way out for US
The only way for the US Administrations is to accept the ground reality. They should accept the grand success of the Maoists as the reflections of the wishes of the Nepalese people who could venture to oust the king who they used to worship as an incarnation of Hindu God Vishnu. So they shouldn't hesitate to recognise Maoists as the real force in Nepal. America shouldn't repeat the same mistake and political blunder that it had shown is Palestine by refusing to recognise the success of the Hamas militants in the election held recently at Gaza in which pro-US President Abbas' party Al-Fatah was defeated and ousted from power. This is an opportune moment for Bush to rectify his past mistake and turn a new leaf for his nation as well as for himself.
Meanwhile, there appear to be dim lights seen at the end of the tunnel, reflecting some encouraging signals coming out of the White House. According to latest media reports, America was trying to make "turn-round" with the Maoists, who had been branded by America as "terrorists" and there are hints about unofficial talks with the new Nepalese leadership. But to make it go a long way to achieve solid results, the first thing that America will have to do is to remove the tag of "terrorists" from the back of the Maoists. So they would have to wash dirt off their hands to shake hands with the Maoists. This will usher in peace not only in Nepal but also in the whole region. Let us watch which way the wind now blows. We wish both America and India success in their efforts to establish best of relationship with the new regime in Nepal.
A M M Shahabuddin is a retired UN official
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LETTERS
Police and teenagers
Dear Editor:
Police is and important part of our day-to-day life and our governmental operations either we have direct contact with them or not. They are very influential in maintaining law and order situation for the peace loving people of Bangladesh. Most of the time, they are busy handling crimes and criminals. But we think police can help us better by helping the teenagers who have the potentiality to be assets of the nation but unfortunately become involved in doing misdeeds, creating tension in their respective streets and spending time on the street after dark. Sometimes these things create tension among them and they start fighting over teasing minor girls, show themselves up and most of the time try to reach powerful persons in strong positions. Thus after some time they find themselves involved in crimes.
So we can request the DMP to run some routine works to prevent these situations.
In Dhaka City at suburbs the teenagers show up themselves and create tension and fights between groups, and sometimess they carry stick, wicket, hockey-stick or knife and guns. The IG may help us by thinking on this issue.
Asifami Rahman Saikat,
Enginner
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Email address : asifcuet@yahoo.com
Socio-economic development and politics
Dear Editor:
Awami League's Sheikh Hasina has been freed but with its Chairperson Khaleda Zia still in jail the BNP, one of the country's two top political parties, is left incommunicado -- there is absence of normal communication channels. The health factors are also there. Against all odds, our per capita income has doubled within four years.
The usual flow and ebb tides are not there signalling political climate change. Flexibility is the name of the current game. The gift of the gab is an illusive palliative.
We lack two armours: patience and tolerance, in a field where these qualities are needed most. For whom the bell tolls? Hemingway's For Whom the Bell takes place during the Spanish Civil War, which ravaged the country throughout the late 1930s. Tensions in Spain began to rise as early as 1931, when a group of left-wing Republicans overthrew the country's monarchy in a bloodless coup. After a strong Communist turnout in the 1936 popular elections, the Fascist army commander Generalísimo Franco initiated a coup in an attempt to overthrow the Republican government. Unexpectedly, the key cities of Madrid and Barcelona remained loyal to the Republic. This divide marked the beginning of the turmoil. It expresses the writer's strong feelings.
Aszad Ahmed Khan,
Ramna. Dhaka.
Stealing helicopters
Dear Editor:
Poor American know-how! After caught napping on 9/11 (New York), the latest news is that US helicopters transiting by road from Pakistan part to Afghanistan and military stores have been hijacked by Islamic terrorist groups.
What next? Change is better for stability- West, or East.
AZ,
Dhaka.
IOs of Police, ACC's action
Dear Editor:
I whole heartedly congratulate the ACC for nabbing the corrupted S.I, of the Cantonment P.S. for accepting tk 5000 as bribe from an accused on the promise of clearing his name from the FIR during the course of investigation, as per the media report dated 17th June, 2008. Such crimes by police officers during the course of investigation is so rampant in our country that it may be for the first time it has come to light through another authority. A wonderful performance of the ACC.
The police administration must be reformed to ensure social justice at grassroots level. It's a fact that the I.O. of a police station, when delegated with the power to investigate a case, becomes the most powerful official in the local police administration. During the whole process of investigation, he is absolutely free to act on his own, exercising his power of authority with no one supervising him at the place of occurrence.
On his honesty and integrity only the victim may get justice. Here he can turn an accused into an innocent person while putting the complainant/plaintiff into a criminal. Usually the I.Os investigate the occurrences with a pre-occupied mind of earning easy cash, least caring for humanity.
Instead of terrorising and jumping upon the criminals and sympathising with the victims, he takes the liberty of his power and acts to suit his motives. The victims remain wary of the I,O's attitude and mindset and try to win his mind but will not dare to offend him in any manner lest he acts arbitrarily.
On any incident including murder or attempted murders when offenders flex their muscle, take law into their hands and oppress the weak in the society, if the I.O. after confirming the fact, swoops upon the criminals and be rough and tough with them appreciating the independent witnesses, the crime rate is bound to decline. Peace will return to the society. The criminals will remain in fear of police action while the law abiding citizens will feel confident of police protection and justice.
I urge the authorities to innovate ways and means of making the I.Os. accountable for their actions. They do enjoy an enviable position. Deserving ones should be rewarded for bravery and fighting for establishing truth and justice. Their exercise of unlimited power should remain transparent and must be under check and scrutiny of the higher tier of the administration. Perverting the course of justice by misusing and abusing such power in exchange of hard cash, must be dealt with harsh punishment. Then only they will remain cautious and under fear of being caught and punished.
Revising and regulating this sensitive and tricky area of the police administration, the police can earn public confidence. We appreciate and thank the IGP for introducing changes in the police administration, though we have a long way to go. For a just nation and society there is no alternative than to have an efficient police force. I myself became a casualty of the two I.Os' investigations for an attempted murder on my life. Justice, after all seems to be a far cry in our country.
One wishing social justice
124, Whitley close
Staines, Stanwell,
Middlesex
UK.
Communalism and Indian politics
Dear Editor:
India claims to be a secular country. Cautioning against resurgence of Indian communalism, Railway Minister and RJD chief Lalu Prasad recently said projection of L K Advani as BJP's prime ministerial candidate reflected the saffron party's reversion to its communal agenda. "Communalism is again rearing its ugly head," Prasad said addressing RJD leaders after inaugurating a brainstorming session. Claiming that people in BJP-ruled states were living in 'constant terror', he said: "The peace loving and secular electorate and RJD workers have to be wary of the party of rioters and teach them a befitting lesson in the elections."
In India there are a number of religion-based political parties like Jana Sangh, BJP, Shib Sena, Bajrang, Zamat-e-Ulama-e-Hind etc.
BJP is identified as Hindutwabadi political party with an ideology of vilifying Islam and attacking Muslims from different platforms in a malicious manner. BJP took the initiatives to kill thousands of Muslims in Gujarat during riots in 2002.
The BJP influenced the ruling Congress party to pursue anti-Muslim policies and demolish Babri Mosque. This was revealed in India's media. Despite communal activities people voted for the BJP in this poll held recently. BJP has won a simple majority of 115 MLAs in 224-members Karnataka Assembly and set to form government.
In our country there are some political parties with signboard only and some political leaders who claim themselves that they are secular and progressive. When they demand ban on religion-based political parties they mean only 'Islam'-based political parties and no other religion-based parties like Hindhu, Buddha, Christian Oikka Parisad.
These signboard-based political parties opine that Islam is impediment to democracy as well as secularism; so Islam should be separated from politics. But Islam-based political parties of our country do not involve in communal activities like the BJP of India. On the contrary they maintain communal harmony.
The political leaders of India do not demand ban on religion- based political parties. It proves that they are not secularist and progressive like our political leaders. So it will be wise for them to learn politics from the political leaders of Bangladesh. We hope they will admit it.
A.M. K. Chowdhury,
West Masdhair
Narayanganj.
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