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IMPRISONING THEM INDEFINITELY IS VIOLATION OF H.R.
Khaleda and Hasina gaining
people's support
Abdur Rahman Khan
Despite efforts to implement a 'minus two' formula, the demand for the release of the two top leaders, Begum Khaleda Zia of BNP and Sheikh Hasina of Awami League, appears to be gaining support from the common people who are now in great hardship because of very high prices of rice, wheat, cooking oil and other daily necessities have gone beyond their reach.
Now in every locality people have developed sympathy for the political leaders who in spite of their 'huge corruption' were alert and attentive to the common people's needs and kept prices of eatables under control so that everyday consumables remained within their purchasing capacity.
The ongoing food crisis has engendered courage among the political leaders to come openly with the demand for the release of two former Prime Ministers, now in the prison facing a number of corruption cases.
The logic is very simple - minus two formula as had been applied in Pakistan against Benazir Bhutto and Newaz Sharif could not bring the desired result. The nine-year old military dictatorship in Pakistan ended up with the withdrawal of all criminal charges against the top leaders, ultimate defeat for General Parvez Mosharraf and election of Yusuf Raja Gilani, once convicted for corruption, to the position of Prime Minister.
Some over smart guys in authority believe that politicians are not so wise to outwit the rulers' design and get united against the odds.
However, BNP law makers and the leaders loyal to the party Chairperson made a public demand for the release of both the former Prime Ministers - Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina.
Talking to the BBC Radio on Sunday, BNP Secretary Joint General Gayeswar Chandra Roy said that they were yet to reach any understanding with Awami League for the common demand or a movement.
"We have not given any undertaking for not going to launch any movement. It is well known that no political demand was fulfilled in the past without any movement", he said.
Addressing a discussion meeting last week, Gayeswar Roy also asked the 'powerful people' in the government to make clear their intention.
"Make clear what you want... Speak out loud if you have any "hidden ambitions" and let the people know about that."
"Exit is not a problem at all if your intention is good. If you have "ambitions", please, collect the notebook of Pervez Musharraf," he said.
Gayeswar Roy was pessimistic about the election roadmap and under the present Chief Election Commissioner, whom he accused of being hostile against BNP.
The Election Commission has failed to complete its dialogue with the political parties, bring desired reforms in the election rules and achieve other targets in conformity with the election roadmap announced on July 15 last year.
Meanwhile, a German parliamentary delegation said in Dhaka last week that Germany will put pressure on the caretaker government to hold the parliamentary election if it does not maintain the year-end deadline for the polls.
However, Awami League is yet to decide about a demand for the release of two top ladies. "We do not consider the issue of Sheikh Hasina and Begum Zia in equal terms", Awami League Presidium member Ameer Hossain Amu told the Holiday adding that his party was concerned about the health condition of Sheikh Hasina and her immediate release for medical treatment.
Dr Hasan Mamood, Special Assistant to Awami League Chief Sheikh Hasina, also told the Holiday that they did not treat both the top political leaders in equal terms. He, however, stressed that both of them deserved fair treatment under the law and opposed any sort of political harassment.
Sheikh Hasina on Sunday told a special court that she had been produced in court by force and complained of her incomplete treatment and mental harassment by the government.
After the court proceedings on Sunday, Hasina told her lawyers, "The people who are now doing such injustice to me will also have to relinquish power one day and then they will face trial in people's court."
The way our leader Sheikh Hasina is taken to the court despite her ill health, is simply shocking and inhuman and we demand that the trial process of her cases should be suspended until she recovers completely", the acting president of the AL, Zillur Rahman, told reporters at his Gulshan residence after holding talks with some senior leaders of the party.
Talking to the Holiday, Barrister Shafique Ahmed, former President of Supreme Court Bar Association, pointed out that both the leaders, being aged women, sick and former Prime Ministers deserve bail under the law and considering the merit of the cases filed against them.
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POLITICS OF FOOD
Avert famine before it strikes
M. Shahidul Islam
When it comes to politics of food, the impact could be a killer. In the 1970s, an unsavoury food politics had brought the Mujib regime to its knee by turning living humans into horrific skeletons. The scenario may be worse this time unless the Caretaker Government (CG) moves in full force to forestall the crisis.
Not only the domestic food prices have risen nearly 60 per cent in the past six months, the market faces further turmoil due to India -- which promised in December 2007 to supply 500,000 tons of rice under a government-to-government deal -- having re-fixed on March 29 the export price per ton at $1,000 (up first from $399 to $650 earlier).
Indian officials say a sudden $350 hike in minimum export price of rice was caused by Delhi's concern for an impending food crisis being caused by a supply-demand mismatch.
But private-run think tanks, however, say India faces no rice shortage this year but its stockpiles of wheat are down, largely due to a global decline in the wheat trade caused by a poor crop in Australia, which has suffered two years of severe drought. They say, wary of depleted wheat supplies, India decided to boost its rice stockpile to about 10 million tons by stopping exports.
Compare this with what happened in 1974. The global recession and the increased food and oil prices sparked by the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict created a serious economic crisis within Bangladesh, compelling the Mujib administration to approach the USA for 2.2 million tons of food and 128,000 tons of soybean oil. Despite repeated assurances from Washington, the promised food shipment never reached Bangladesh.
David Boster, then US Ambassador to Dhaka, informed foreign minister Dr. Kamal Hossain on May 29, 1974 that, a newspaper report about the Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation having agreed to sell four million jute bags to Cuba was "prejudicial to the further commitment of the US PL 480 food aid." According to Boster, "US Congressional law expressly forbade such commitments to any country trading with Cuba and North Vietnam." By then, stock of rice fell to a disastrous level of 56,000 tons and a marauding famine stalked across the nation.
Now the time is different and so is the rule of the game. Not only Bangladesh is a trusted US friend now, Washington has also franchised away much of its South Asian foreign policy to Delhi since 9/11. This has made the Indian move to restrict rice export doubly harmful for Bangladesh and further exacerbated the fear of an ensuing famine. Sumitr Broca of the FAO's regional Bangkok office has succinctly summarized the impact the Indian move will have on Bangladesh's famine-like situation. "By stabilising your domestic market, you are basically exporting instability abroad," Broca said.
The crisis unfolded at a time when the world economy is being jolted by a creeping US recession that has tumbled financial markets and spiked crude oil prices well above $100 a barrel. Price of rice surged to a 20-year-high last week, hitting at $500 per ton for the first time since 1969. And, in the last eight months, price of wheat has risen 88 per cent.
Despite optimism expressed recently by our agriculture ministry officials that the coming "Boro" rice production is expected to be more than 17.5 million tons, "if weather and other things go well," experts have advised the government to import 2 million tons of rice sooner to avoid a lurking famine awaiting to pounce the nation.
The CG has no luxury not to pay heed to such advice as higher food prices have already sparked protests in the Philippines, where the government has asked the public to save leftover rice. In Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered a ban on rice exports on March 26 to curb rising prices at home. Vietnamese exporters and farmers are also stockpiling rice in expectation of further price increases.
Near home, Pakistan is expecting an unstable food market. Since January, Islamabad deployed thousands of troops to guard trucks carrying wheat and flour. Protests have erupted in Indonesia over soybean shortages and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs. Besides, food riots have erupted in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen.
The worst is yet to come as recent moves by rice-exporting nations drove global prices even higher. Especially in the Philippines, the rice crisis has scared President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who is dreading a 'people power' revolt against her if the restive population can not be supplied with adequate rice.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast has issued a dire warning, saying, "Global rice stocks for 2007-08 would drop to 65 million tons, the lowest since 1983-84 and about one-half of the 2000-01 level."
Experts say, besides the impacts of the global climate change and the recurrence of natural disasters, part of the reason for global food crisis is rooted in the subsidy being offered by some developed nations in growing of biofuels - namely, ethanol from maize and sugarcane and biodiesel from edible oil crops.
The US alone has diverted about 20 per cent of its maize crop to biodiesel in the last few years, which resulted in a 60 per cent rise in the price of maize. At the same time, an EU mandate for a 6 per cent use of biofuel in the transport sector by 2010 is diverting land from food to fuel.
The rice being a staple food of many Asian nations, the crisis has hit hard the Asian continent in particular. So far, China is the only country to have devised a sound strategy to tackle the crisis. On March 28, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced more money for farmers and raised government prices for purchases of wheat and rice to boost rural production after inflation accelerated to an 11- year high. Beijing also allocated an additional 25.3 billion yuan ($3.6 billion) of subsidies to boost government spending on agriculture to 587.8 billion yuan, a 36 per cent increase from the last year, and raised purchase prices for wheat and rice by about 10 percent.
As food prices make up one-third of the Chinese consumer price index (CPI), a short-term measure from the government came by way of subsidies and higher government purchase prices for wheat and rice, which is expected to provide the needed reassurance to farmers to expand production. In the long run, China decided to be a major player in the international grains market to shield its domestic market from the ongoing global turbulences.
But Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter followed by Vietnam, has already stopped signing new delivery contracts. In 2007, Thailand exported an estimated 8.5 million tons of rice, followed by Vietnam, at 4.6 million tons, and India, 4 million tons. All these nations are now anticipating food shortage of their own.
That leaves the US in a comparatively better position with respect to the stock of rice it currently possesses and its ability to export nearly 30 million tons of rice a year. Although the US still imports 30 per cent of the rice the Americans consume, and retail price of rice has already increased more than 8 per cent over the last year, Washington still aides its close allies. Countries like Senegal and other sub-Saharan African nations, as well as Iraq and the Solomon Islands mostly depend on import of rice from the US.
Now that the world's third leading exporter, India, too has imposed an export ban for high quality rice, Bangladesh can approach the USA for 2 million tons of rice it urgently needs. Especially the current CG reportedly being a US-India-installed government, such an approach makes enough sense to test the depth of friendship the two governments harbour for each other.
Alternately, Dhaka should knock the doors of China and Pakistan where the stock situation is still comparatively better. China currently holds about half of the world's stocks and the sub-Saharan African states have traditionally imported rice from China, the USA and Thailand, while the Latin America's deficit is often made up by imports largely from the USA.
As the crisis aggravates by the day, the CG should emulate the Chinese strategy as a long term measure while the foreign affairs adviser can make an urgent appeal to Mrs. Rice in Washington to save the nation from an impending famine by allowing Dhaka to import 2 million tons of rice from the USA.
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Indecisive govt. losing peoples' support
Sadeq Khan
Public disaffection for Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's caretaker administration is growing fast and running deep. Members of that administration in bulk appear to be unwilling horses, resentful of those in the driving seats. To common citizens, they appear to be habitually distant, wilfully inhibited and woefully indecisive. With the best of measures, like in fertiliser procurement and distribution, something has been going wrong somewhere or other, and generating fume of discontent.
With bungled measures, like in the case of the government's rice-reserve procurement from abroad, the record is pathetic. The relevant ministry turned a deaf year to early warning from some food policy experts last July to begin procuring food grains when global market prices were still low and big deficits were projected. The caretaker advisers have now decided to make a panic purchase of 4 lakh tons from Indian state-trading companies at the approach of the boro harvest. The government has done so as captive buyer at an unaffordable price of $430 ton, stipulating supply within 60 days of contract. The Indian supply will coincide with the height of boro harvest.
Some have labelled that purchase decision unwise. The fear is that import-price parity will push up the home market price in spite of more than adequate supply for the season from the new harvest compared to home demands. Civil society stalwarts, including the well-known faces of the Economic Association, have supported that purchase decision speculating uncertainty of domestic procurement prospects from the coming boro harvest and taking into account continuing trend of high cereal prices in the world market. Some also smell a rat.
Indeed the enormous goodwill and popular applause with which Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's caretaker regime embarked on its journey, along the roadmap of its own making, has been all but exhausted. Uncontrollable hike of commodity prices on account of oil price shocks in the global market was certainly the main contributing factor for popular disenchantment with the regime. But so were the micro-economic dislocations suffered by the public on account of indiscriminate, in stead of exemplary, use of the coercive power of the state by the regime in the name of law-enforcement.
Further cause for aggravation and exasperation has arisen from what is widely perceived as diversionary drills by some in the driving seats of the caretaker administration. Their veiled but persistent encouragement for invocation of bitter memories of the past only remind people of the horrible days of political violence that led to the state of emergency, and make people apprehensive of a relapse of civic disorder. The caretaker advisers, by letting themselves be carried away by lofty slogans of NGO activists or dead issues of lime-light seekers, simply appear to the public to be both insensitive to current needs of the people and obtuse about the priorities of the nation.
What is more disturbing is the fact that common people are beginning to lose faith in the administration's sustained capacity to ensure safety of life and property of citizens. Criminal gangs are again out on the prowl. Curse of unemployment in cities and villages alike are engendering law-breakers of all sorts. A creepy feeling of insecurity and hopelessness is beginning to numb people's minds. Here and there, incidents occur and recur to nudge that nasty feeling.
On March 28, train communications between Dhaka and other parts of the country were disrupted for an hour and a half as a huge quantity of REC-elasted rail clips along a stretch of some two kilometres from the Banani level crossing to the Staff Road went missing. Hundreds of passengers suffered as train communications were suspended from the time of the detection of incident at about 9:30am.
Railway officials said, 'We came to know of the incident from the control room as the Teesta Express headed for the northern region faced trouble in passing the stretch.'
More than 15 trains had crossed the stretch before the incident could be detected. No untoward incident took place as the railway was still cool in the morning and did not expand. Railway engineers found 3,510 rail clips, weighing about four tonnes, missing from both the lines along the stretch.
The officials said the workers repaired the metre-gauge railway, with the clips taken off the bordering broad-gauge line immediately. Train communications resumed at 11:00am.
The officials said the clips might not have been removed in less than two hours and a half. The incident went unnoticed at a place near the navy headquarters and in front of the new gate of Senakunja. Apart from Railway Police, the army was asked to investigate the matter as the incident took place right across the cantonment area.
The incident caused a shockwave amongst train-travellers. Was it sabotage? The DG of Bangladesh Railway says it could be sabotage. Evidence unearthed by police investigation so far suggests it was an economic crime by an organised gang of thieves.
Sixteen suspects of the crime and recipient, of stolen goods have so far been apprehended by the police, including a security guard of the construction firm Max Automobiles, which was awarded a repair and maintenance contract for the relevant section of the railway. According to Railway officials, a Chinese company called CFICC is engaged in constructing dual gauge tracks for the Bangladesh Railway, so that both broad gauge and metre gauge railway wagons can be run on a single track. They are supposed to complete the construction by June and hand over the additional line of rail installed to Bangladesh Railway.
The theft has affected mostly the metre gauge track under use along the new line of rail that is being laid. As such, the cost of replacement of the clips may have to be borne by the contractors, whose associate is Max Automobiles. Some 600 to 700 workers of Max Automobiles have been engaged to work on the railway track from 1 a.m. to 4 a.m. at night when no trains run on that track. Stray incidents of theft of both clips and sleepers have been going on, according to reported confession of some of the culprits nabbed. Theft of over 3510 clips from the two kilometre-long railway stretch presumably took place within that time limit of pre-down hours on 28 March. It took more than 10 persons posing as contractor's men to remove the clips and take them away, presumably in a truck load, since one person could at best remove six of such clips per minute on the average.
The clips did not have any protective devise to obstruct removal or theft. This was because the dual gauge construction work was financed under Indian State Credit. The clips under the credit terms were to be exclusively imported from India, although imported clips with anti-theft devise are available in Bangladesh. Indian manufacturers who supplied the clips do not make clips with anti-theft device. The clips cost Taka 100 weighing about 900 grams each. 411 stolen clips have been recovered. The scrap-dealers who obtained the stolen goods have been identified and speedy action taken for criminal prosecution and damage control. But, to quote a commentator, "much more will have to be done both by the lawmen and the railway in order the restore the sense of security of the rail passengers which has been so rudely jolted."
Theft of iron and steel parts from public installations these days are not peculiar to poverty-ridden countries like ours any more. Like rising food prices and disturbed food grain markets around the world, the phenomenon of pilferage of iron and steel parts to obtain scrap prices comprise a global syndrome.
Daily Herald in Suburaban Chicago, U.S.A., reported Jan. 12, 2008: "On Dec 22, police pulled over a 33-year-old Lake-in-the-Hills Woman after she failed to use a turn signal.....(and) found 11 manhole covers in her car."
The Guardian in England reported in October 2004: "London has joined the select band of world cities cursed by mysterious phenomenon of manhole cover theft....The thieves made off with 93 covers in one week."
International Herald Tribune, March 29-30, 2008 commented, in a post-editorial: "Since 2004, dozens of cities on every continent, including Cardiff, Montréal, Milwanku, Daegu, Chandigarh, and Johannesburg, have experienced manhole cover theft. Calcutta's daily Telegraph has estimated that at least 20,000 of the city's manhole covers are stolen every year. The Beijing Times claims that Beijing lost 24000 covers, valued at over $5 million, to theft in 2004 alone, and the China daily reported that on average, 12 are pilfered everyday in Shanghai. (If) you're not normally given to thinking about manhole covers, you still may be asking why a 33-year old woman would be driving around with 11 of them in her car. What motives could she, and all the other manhole-cover thieves around the world, have for making off with cast-iron discs weighing in excess of 50 pounds (22.70 kilograms)? This: In 2001, scrap metal sold for $77 a ton; at the end of 2004, it was $300 per ton, and today it is approaching $480."
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BIG STRIDES IN SOFTWARE INDUSTRY
Local makers facing unfair
competition from foreign firms
Faruque Ahmed
Banks and financial institutions are gradually installing locally developed software for the automation of their operations although several private banks recently automated their services using software from foreign suppliers. "The cost of automation with software from local suppliers seems about one-fifth of the ones supplied by outsiders," said former president of Bangladesh Software Exporters Association (BSEA) Habibullah. He said local software is as good and suitable as anyone from a foreign supplier.
According to him, it is true that the core software to help automation of bank operations were not available from the local sources in the past; but the vacuum is no more here as many local companies have already developed their products to take care of this particular requirement. But certain quarters have a general apathy to local software for no cogent reason.
One observer said as some banks have carried out the automation at a cost of Taka 100 crore or close to it, the real cost seems to be one-third to one-fifths. He said the management in some cases acts from a different motive.
There are allegations that they enter into unholy connivance with the suppliers and through an 'understanding' agree to higher cost of automation.
As part of the connivance, the supplier gets the contract, while bank directors take away the huge margin above the real cost out of the bank and share it among themselves at the expense of the shareholders or the depositors' interest.
Private banking requires much more intensive watch by the central bank, he said pointing to regular siphoning of banks fund and its misappropriation by directors to their advantage. In most cases of procurement and buying of other services they are using the cover and cunningly benefiting from it, he said.
It is happening unabated as banks have no directors nominated by depositors and even if it has directors they may be influenced easily to abandon interest of their electors for their own benefits.
A recently published news item in English daily said the use of locally developed software has reduced the automation cost for banks by about 90 per cent compared to banks automated by foreign software.
The managing director of Al-Arafah bank is reported to have said they have taken the risk of taking the local software and saved crores of Taka of the depositors. They have successfully completed the automation and take pride in using locally developed software. The bank has recently completed automation of its 46 branches and waiting for formal inauguration.
While other banks like Dutch-Bangla or BRAC Bank have spent Taka 100 crore each for automation, the cost of Al-Arafah was less than 10 crore. Local software maker Millennium Information Solution Ltd has supplied the software. The hardware and other equipment were imported. "We spent only Taka 7 crore for the bank's real automation," an official of the Al-Arafah is reported to have said. The bank will not need to hire foreign software consultants for repair and maintenance, he said.
Habibullah said foreign consultants take about 10 to 20 per cent of the project cost for annual maintenance or repair and the involvement of local firms will greatly reduce the drainage of the foreign currency to a huge volume annually.
With the automation of some banks and others in the trail, they are entering into an era of tough competition and launching innovative products along with the automation of services. Consumers can get variable products be able to conduct transactions from any branch and they can also transact through ATMs, telephone and internet.
Banks like BRAC, DBBL and Eastern Bank have already completed the automation while Prime bank is under process. Two other banks -- Islami bank and IFIC Bank -- took the initiative several years ago but they are yet to complete it.
But no other bank in Bangladesh has taken the so-called 'risk' of using the local software for automation. The NCC Bank is planning to use the local software, next to Al-Arafah, the industry sources say. In one estimate foreign software for automation of a bank cost Taka 30 to 50 crore while local software cost Taka 10 crore.
Sources say that foreign suppliers tend to influence the banks' top management and the board of directors with lots of financial and other immoral advantage to secure contract. Local software producers know it but are helpless as they do not have that much money to grease palms of decision makers.
Here the most potential weapon that the local suppliers can take advantage of is price competitiveness; their lower price offer may offset any other advantage that foreign suppliers may offer. Moreover, they are better suited to comply with rules and regulations of the central banks compared to foreign suppliers. Side by side, there should be the guarantee of fair competitiveness and the central bank should come forward to make sure of it.
The software industry in the country has made breakthrough in recent years. It is emerging as one of the major export sectors with the growing outsourcing of products and services by European and US buyers. But the industry must be saved from unfair practices and it requires strengthening of the market intelligence services along with the transparent competition.
And more than anything else, the local users of the software services including the bank managers who tend to go for services automation must take greater interest to benefit the home industry. Moreover, the information technology (ICT) industry must be given all financial support to remain competitive against cheaper imports of gears which are hurting the domestic manufacturing and its growth, observers say.
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Vandals plunder BSS under
police protection
A Special Correspondent
It was plain and simple a robbery in broad daylight. Equipped with machetes, spikes and handguns a group of land grabbers and vandals seized 17 kathas of land on Purana Paltan main road worth 200 million Taka real-estate and pillaged half a dozen shops with all their goods and mercahdise worth millions of Taka last Sunday. They also damaged some equipment and property of the Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS), the national news agency, a statutory body under the Ministry of Information. They hurt some of the newsmen on duty during their Mafia style terror operation.
For the record, except the ground floor, the rest of the space upstairs of the three-storied building complex was allotted to the BSS by the Government in 1972.
All this happened in the name of a court eviction order in favour of one Nazrul Islam Boyati alias Nuru Boyati who claimed to have a power of attorney from a dubious 'cooperative' of a non-functional electrical industry workers which was packed up in Pakistan days, before the Bangladesh's liberation. He is also the owner of 'Gharoa Restaurant at Motijheel.
One wonders how could this man's goons vandalise the premises under police protection without the presence of a Magistrate to execute the said court order?
Boyati is known to the police in Naria, Shariatpur and to the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), who had arrested him on December 4, 2004 on charges of money laundering, drug peddling and gun running. He is said to be the boss of notorious terrors of Dhaka city, known as Liaquat and Hannan (later killed in encounter with RAB).
When confronted by angry BSS journalists the officer-in-charge of Paltan Thana, who supervised the operation under his boss, Assistant Commissioner of the area, confessed that he was acting under orders. The AC of DMP simply ignored the journalists and after watching the completion of the operation left the place visibly satisfied that the job was done.
Police officials responding to the desperate pleas from the BSS journalists told them plainly they were carrying out 'order' from 'high ups'. They only said 'they were aware' of it, and all was going on legally.
The BSS management informed the top brass of the government and people who matter these days but to no avail. The vandals also damaged a BSS vehicle. The shop owners, who had been carrying out their business since pre-independence days, had to watch silently their shops being plundered of lakhs of Taka worth of goods. Some of them were beaten up.
Even prominent intellectual like Professor Badruddin Omar, who had an office of his political organisation, and few other leftist groups as well the Lekhak Shibir office were stripped of their existence. The office keeper of Professor Omar was beaten badly and goods of hawkers were looted away by the vandals. Later in the afternoon on that day, when Lekhak Shibir members staged a protest near the building premises they were chased away by hoodlums carrying iron spike and lathis. Amjad and Selim, two police officials, helped them to drive away the writers.
It is learnt that Nazrul Islam Boyati never had any relationship with the workers' cooperative of the electrical company, which only existed during the pre-liberation days at Fatullah, but now openly moves under protection of armed goons who allegedly still terrorise the people in the area.
The shop keepers ventilated their grievances at a press conference. Later when they went to Paltan thana to file a case, police reportedly refused to accept it. However, they accepted the case later only when asked by the court. Police accepted a case from the BSS management. But no action had been taken so far.
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ISLAMABAD'S PENTAGON CONNECTION
Pakistani generals served as
foot soldiers of US
M. Ziauddin
The results of the February 18 elections have given a new hope to Pakistan, especially to its youth who had not seen the heady days immediately following the fall of the first military dictator Ayub or the emergence of the Z A Bhutto as the saviour of the residual Pakistan after the ouster of the second military dictator Yahya and. Neither have had the experience of waking up with a new hope on the day Benazir Bhutto was sworn in as the first woman prime minister of a Muslim country following the 1988 elections held after the third military dictator, Zia-ul-Huq had vanished virtually into thin air. Pakistan has had dictatorship as many as four times in the last 61 years; and US lost interest in Pakistan whenever there was an elected government.
A more reassuring aspect of the new hope has been the new Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani's publicly declared position of confining his institution's role to what is permitted under the constitution.
But there is another player, a more powerful one-the US, the sole super power in this unipolar world whose interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan from time to time in its global interests has caused the country to consistently miss out on democracy and slip into dictatorship as many as four times in the last 61 years.
There are many reasons why Pakistan appears to be still wandering in political wilderness even after having traversed more than six decades of existence. Immediately after independence we had per force become a security state because of the fear that the bigger and hostile neighbour India would gobble us up. From then onwards our national priorities were dictated by our defence needs. Armed defence of Pakistan was considered more important than education, health, economy and social uplift. An unspoken consensus had emerged in the very beginning among the ruling elite which included civil and military bureaucracy, feudal aristocracy and big business to relegate everything to an India policy that had to be pursued even if it meant becoming totally or partially subservient to a super power.
This had led to a situation where the US Pentagon and the Pakistani GHQ together became the arbiters of Pakistani destiny. The two over the years feeding on each other, have marginalised all the political forces in Pakistan, its civil society and in short the very people of Pakistan. And as long as this Pentagon connection is not taken care of the country will continue to wander about in political wilderness.
The NDI: The year perhaps was early 2006. A team of National Democratic Institute (NDI) for International Affairs, a non-profit US organisation was meeting the so-called opinion leaders and media persons in Islamabad ostensibly to pick their brains on the state of Pakistan's political parties and to get their opinion on how best to go about 'reforming' them to make them more 'democratic' in their internal workings and also in their approach to politics in general in the country. I don't know how beneficial these consultations turned out to be for the NDI but I am sure what I told them must have sounded too blasphemous for the Institute to do anything about it.
"Being the most active and predominant political party in the country, the Army needs your help more than any other organisation that styles itself as a political party in Pakistan," I told an aghast NDI team.
To elaborate what I meant by what I said, I would like to quote here a passage from Stephen Cohen's book, The Idea of Pakistan.
Divide and rule: "The Pakistan Army practises a policy of divide and rule when it comes to dealing with the political parties. The army shifts its support among and between the mainstream and religious parties, and between the national parties and those whose power base is confined to one province. Thus even when it believes it has the army's support, a party in power is insecure since this support can be withdrawn at a moment's notice."
To further elaborate the point let me recall here how each of our successive army chiefs ended up. The very first Pakistani chief of our army, General Ayub Khan took over the reins of the country through a military coup blaming the politicians for what he perceived as a serious threat to the integrity of the country. His successor, Gen. Musa Khan immediately after retirement became the Governor of half of the then Pakistan. The third chief, Yahya Khan snatched power from Field Marshal Ayub Khan blaming his regime to have pushed the country to the brink of political chaos. He was ousted by junior officers for having lost the 1971 war against India.
His successor General Gul Hasan was removed in a dramatic fashion by Prime Minister Z. A. Buhtto when the general was found conspiring against the elected government. His successor General Tikka Khan ended up becoming the defence minister in the federal cabinet. General Zia, who succeeded General Tikka, ousted Bhutto and hanged him. Zia died with his boots on in a mysterious plane crash. His successor General Aslam Beg was instrumental in the dismissal of the first Benazir Bhutto government but when he tried to take liberties with the first Nawaz Sharif government he had to leave office in ignominy. His successor General Asif Nawaz died with his boots on while trying to undermine the then elected government of Nawaz Sharif.
General Kaker earned the dubious distinction of removing not only a prime minister but also a president. His successor General Karamat was shown the door by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for speaking out of turn. He was succeeded by General Musharraf who not only took over the reins of the country by staging a military coup, the fourth in number, but also made history on three counts in rapid succession in the last year of his rule in uniform.
On November 3, 2007 he became the first ever army chief in the world to declare martial law against his own government. Earlier on October 6, the same year he became the first ever army chief in the world to contest polls for the office of a civilian president. And while imposing the November 3 martial law he created another history of sorts by ousting almost the entire bench of the Supreme Court along with the Chief Justice of Pakistan and then consigning them and their families including children and women folk to house arrest.
The fateful link-up: As fate would have it, every time there was a military rule in the country, Pakistan became the darling of the US. Or to put it another way every time the US needed the help of Pakistan to promote its global interests Washington was delighted to find a military general ruling in Islamabad. Coincidence or conspiracy? Take your pick. But the fact is, every time there was an elected government in Pakistan, the US was seen losing its interest in the country.
In the immediate post-war decades when the US needed someone to play the front line for the so-called 'free world' in South Asia against the 'expanding menace' of Chinese and Soviet socialism, the Pakistani generals looking for a bully to help them against India used their decisive political clout to make the then political governments to enter into two formidable defence pacts-CENTO and SEATO. Next, when in the1980s Washington needed a frontline state to fight a proxy war for the 'free world' against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, it found President General Ziaul Haq more than willing to join up. And when after 9/11 President Bush needed a 'tight friend' in the region to help him oust the Taliban and Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan he found General Musharraf battle-ready to turn against the very elements which the Pakistani Army had helped groom and promote hoping to gain the so-called strategic depth on Pakistan's western flank.
This willingness of the Pakistani generals to serve as the foot soldiers of the US in the region had perhaps made them the darlings of Pentagon which perhaps had overruled both the White House and the State Department's feeble attempts, if there were any, at not being seen to be aiding military regimes in Pakistan while preaching democracy the world over.
In fact even during the period (1990s) when Pakistan was being punished by the US under the Pressler amendment (for crossing the nuclear red-line) the US Central Command or CENTCOM chiefs had not stopped their periodic visits to Islamabad to meet the army chief of the day perhaps hoping to keep the links with the Pakistani GHQ from getting completely cut off. Perhaps they were taking insurance against the rainy day. I was made aware of these visits sometime in mid-1990s by a foreign diplomat. And when I asked the relevant official quarters for an explanation I was told that these generals visited Islamabad to play golf as the city had the best golf courses in the region.
Here is a documentary piece of evidence of the closeness between the US CENTCOM Generals and the Pakistani army chiefs even when the county was suffering from all kinds of sanctions including that of Pressler, the Kargil misadventure, nuclear tests and the October 12 1999 army takeover. General Anthony C. Zinni (Commander of US CENTCOM in October 1999) in an article published on September 9, 2007 in Washington Post ("Stand by our man") wrote:
"As the turn of the millennium drew closer in December 1999, Jordanian officials uncovered a terrorist plan to attack US tourists visiting Middle Eastern sites during the New Year holidays. They arrested the suspects and gained valuable intelligence on their plans and leadership. Washington went on red alert, fearing further plots. At the time, I was commander of the US Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East.
Senior State Department officials asked me to contact Pakistan's ruler, Gen Pervez Musharraf, to see whether he would conduct operations to seize the leaders of an Al Qaeda cell in Pakistan who had been identified by the terrorists now in Jordanian hands. Musharraf agreed, and his forces captured the jihadists. I was asked to contact him again to inquire whether US interrogators could have access to those arrested. He said yes. Three more requests were made, and each time he agreed."
Interestingly, Gen Musharraf has conveniently ignored to mention in his book - In the Line of Fire - all these December 1999 and other pre-9/11 US 'requests' which he had readily met.
And anecdotally speaking as so far there has been no documentary evidence of this exchange, Musharraf and his corps commanders are said to have taken a decision in principle to remove Prime Minister Nawaz in January 1999.and 'friend' Gen. Zinni was accordingly informed to which he is understood to have said that the 'takeover' should appear like a reaction to some action by Nawaz rather than an action without any apparent provocation and if done in such a manner Musharraf was assured by Zinni that the US would make all the 'right sounds' but look the other way.
Kargil debacle, Gens. Mushi and Zinni: There is, however, comprehensive documentary evidence of Musharraf and General Zinni acting in cohorts on the Kargil debacle. In his book Battle Ready, General Zinni spills the beans by stating that it was he who had convinced General Musharraf to persuade Prime Minister Nawaz to visit Washington on July 4 and announce troops pull out from Kargil heights in the presence of US President Bill Clinton. General Zinni was actually in Pakistan on June 24 and 25, 1999 on the instruction of the US President. He met General Musharraf before he called upon Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. And it was Musharraf who was the first one to disclose (in Karachi) to the media after his meeting with Gen Zinni that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would be going to Washington to meet President Clinton.
US double speak: Here is another documentary evidence of close liaison between the top US and Pakistani generals. The Esquire magazine (March 5, 2008) carries a lengthy personality piece by Thomas P M Barnett on the CENTCOM chief, Admiral William "Fox" Fallon (he lost his job after the publication of this article) in which the Admiral is quoted extensively on Pakistan.
Barnett says that the Admiral was with Pakistani' strongman' Pervez Musharraf "the day before he declared emergency rule last fall."
Continuing he says: "Fallon had spent several hours with "Mushi" the day before in Islamabad, discussing his impending decision. The press coverage would emphasize how Fallon had sternly warned Musharraf not to impose emergency rule. But on this night ( the next night he spent in Kabul), the admiral seems neither alarmed by the move nor resigned to its more negative implications.
According to Barnett before Fallon walked into that room in Islamabad, he had plenty of calls from Washington with instructions to pressure Musharraf down another path.
Fallon, the writer says, assured Washington that he would talk to Musharraf adding that: "There's an awful lot of china that could break. So I'll do it in a professional manner, because I still have to work with him."
"Did I tell President Musharraf, this is not a recommended course of action? Of course. Did I tell him there are very negative effects that this could have? Of course. Is he aware of these? Yes.
"He's made his calculations. He feels very strongly that he's responsible for his country. His alternative is to step down. That would not be the most helpful thing for his country."
"Why not?
"It's a very immature democracy. Look at the history of the place. It's rough. Musharraf knows his country. He knows what he's got. Their factions, their tribes. There's that group of folks that wants nothing more than to start war with India, another group that wants to take over the FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas], another group that wants to take over part of Baluchistan. He's got a tough road."
"Better forget that.": "As for Washington's notion that Benazir Bhutto's return to the country would fix all that, Fallon is pessimistic. He slowly shakes his head. "Better forget that."
"Less than two months later, of course, his rueful prophesy will be confirmed when Bhutto is murdered by militants in Rawalpindi.
"Meanwhile, Fallon argues that with U.S. plans in the offing to arm Pashtun tribes against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the FATA, now would not seem to be the time to be pushing the democracy agenda in Pakistan.
"When Fallon asked Musharraf, "How long do you expect to have to do it?" the general answered, "Not long." And twenty-four hours later, Fallon counseled patience."
"But that doesn't mean the relationship building remains limited to just Musharraf, and so the rest of Fallon's long day in Islamabad was spent networking with General Ashfaq Kayani, former head of Pakistan's much-feared Inter-services Intelligence agency and new chief of army staff. If Musharraf were ever to step or be pushed aside, Kayani is a leading contender to replace him.
"But more to the point for Fallon, Kayani becomes the operational point man for any increased collaboration between the U. S. military and the Pakistani army to tackle the issues of the FATA, which a CENTCOM senior intelligence official calls "the huge elephant in the closet."
"That's putting it mildly. The tribal region is where, according to our own National Intelligence Estimate last year; Al Qaeda was reconstituting its operational capacity, and was now in its strongest position since 9/11. "
The purpose of quoting from this article at such length is to show from where Pakistani generals have been drawing their inspiration and getting reinforcement for their political clout. In fact if the Pakistani army has become such a big political player in this country, the blame must be shared by the Pentagon as well and by association the US.
And it all becomes even more of a macabre joke when the NDI, a US democracy promoting NGO visits Pakistan and tries to find out how best to 'reform' Pakistani political parties when Washington and the Pentagon keep marginalising the people of Pakistan and its political parties with the help of Pakistani GHQ.
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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT
Sir Isaac Newton
K. Z. Islam
Few men had lived for whom less need exists to justify a biography. Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) was one of the greatest scientists of all times - and in the opinion of many, not one of the greatest but the greatest.
This piece is based on The Life of Newton by Richard Westfall. In a 300 page biography over 50 pages are devoted to Robert Hooke (1635-1703) a well known scientist of the Newtonian era who clashed with Newton on practically everything he wrote. Hooke had written a book called Micrographia (1665). The theory of colours in Micrographia stimulated Newton and his immediate negative reaction to Hooke's accounts inaugurated 40 years of antipathy between two incompatible men.
The paper on colours that Newton sent to the Royal Society in February 1672 provoked Robert Hooke to write a lengthy critique that he had performed all Newton's experiments himself while it denied the conclusions Newton knew from them. Initially Newton chose to ignore Hooke's tone. Newton replied to this through another scientist (Oldenburg) sticking to his theory.
During all this time, Hooke's critique of the February paper and the need to reply hung over Netwon's head. Hooke and Newton were probably fated to clash. Newton had conceived his theory of colours in reaction to Hooke's. For his part, Hooke considered himself the authority on optics and resented the appearance of an interloper. When Newton's telescope set the Royal Society agog, Hooke submitted a memorandum about a discovery using refractions that would perfect optical instruments of all sorts to the limit anyone could desire, far beyond Newton's invention.
One can understand how the critique would have annoyed a normal man. The flaming rage provoked it with the desire publicly to humiliate Hooke, however, bespoke the abnormal. Newton was unable rationally to confront criticism. Less than a year after submitting the paper he was so unsettled by the give and take of honest discussion that he began to cut his ties, and he withdrew virtual isolation.
In 1675, during a visit to London, Newton thought he heard Hooke accept his theory of colours. He was emboldened to bring forth a second paper, an examination of the colour phenomena in thin films, which was identical to the most of Book Two as it later appeared in the Opticks.
A second piece which Newton had sent with the paper of 1675 provoked new controversy. Entitled "An Hypothesis Explaining the Properties of Light," it was in fact a general system of nature. Hooke apparently claimed that Newton had stolen its content from him, and Newton boiled over again. The issue was quickly controlled, however, by an exchange of formal, excessively polite letters that fail to conceal the complete lack of warmth between the men.
When Newton's magnum opus Principia was submitted to the Royal Society in January 1684, Hooke called it the most important discovery in nature since the world's creation and tried to claim it as his own, much more did its author understand the significance of his own work. He could make threats in anger. He could not mutilate his masterpiece. The charge of plagiarism and the reply to it provided at most an interlude, a momentary release from the tension of composition. The interlude completed, Newton resumed composition again as though it had never happened.
Newton began to withdraw into his shell and ended up by severing his connections with the learned world in London. The provocation in 1686 was far worse; the result was quite opposite.
When Newton put in one of his rare appearances in the Royal Society to show a "new instrument contrived by him," a sextant, which would be useful in navigation, Hooke reminded him of past antipathies by claiming that he had invented it more than thirty years before. Hooke's death in March 1703 removed an obstacle and prepared the way for Newton's election as president of the Royal Society at the next annual meeting on St. Andrew's Day, 30 November. He remained the President till he died.
P.S. I had never heard of Robert Hooke till I read The Life of Isaac Newton. I wonder how many people have heard Hooke's name.
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Cash crunch may impede Clinton
hustings against Obama
Moinuddin Naser in New York
Barack Obama raised more than $30 million in the month of March, report agencies quoting Obama campaign official. On the other hand Clinton's campaign source said that during the month of March the total raise will be closed to 20 million dollar.
Meanwhile many heavyweight super delegates are switching their loyalties from Hillary and supporting Obama. With the support of Bill Richardson, Governor of New Nexico, the Obama's country wide support has increased dramatically. Now Obama is leading 51 to 42 against Hillary Clinton.
While a monthly fundraising total of $30 million or more would be well short of the more than $55 million Obama raised during the month of February, it would still represent nearly $1 million a day - a healthy pace for a campaign that had a politically rocky last few weeks. And it likely insures that Obama will be able to afford large TV and radio advertising buys in the remaining primary states, the official claimed.
Word of Obama's latest financial benchmark comes amid continued reports that the Clinton campaign is struggling with a persistent debt that at times has reached nearly $9 million, according to published reports and Democratic party officials. The size of Clinton's debt, in turn, has given rise to questions about whether she will have the cash to compete head to head with Obama in various primaries in the final eight weeks of the nomination campaign.
Sen. Clinton loaned herself $5 million earlier this year when her campaign stumbled, fundraising slowed and her cash on hand dwindled. There have been scattered reports in recent weeks that various campaign vendors have not been paid for work or services that have already been rendered, with some taking to the airwaves to complain.
Debt is not uncommon in presidential campaigns, and often is carried quietly on a campaign treasurer's books for a few weeks. While the exact size of Clinton's debt has fluctuated, Democratic Party officials say, hers remains above the norm in size for a campaign at this stage of a race.
While some inside the campaign are concerned about whether Clinton will have the funds to match Obama in radio and TV advertising buys through May, others are worried about a different horizon.
It is also discussed among the democrats that the chance of Obama to get elected against Republican Nominee John McCain is brighter that Clinton.
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HOW MUCH RICE DO WE NEED?
Statistics don't match realities
Shamsuddin Ahmed
How much rice do we need annually? The government estimates the country's annual food requirement at around 25 million tons. Agriculture officials estimate that around two million tons of food crops were damaged this year because of natural calamities. Even assuming total food requirements for the country at 26 million tons, the deficit should not be more than 2 million tons for the year.
Available statistics suggest that imports of food grains by the government and the private sector this year rose to 2.9 million tons. Why then the cry of scarcity giving abnormal rise in price is a question vexing many minds. Inquiries made in major rice supply centres of Naogaon, Bogra, Sherpur and Mirkadim have revealed that supply of paddy to the millers now is low which is usual at this time of the year - on the eve of the new boro crop. But there is no sign of shortage at Badamtali wholesale market in the city or in rice shops anywhere in the country.
A number of leading rice dealers at the major trading centres said the deficit has been adequately met by import. They attributed two main reasons to the high price rise: a) Panic raised by India imposing temporary ban twice on export and jacking up export price four times from some US$305 to $1000 dollars per ton within a few months time, and b) media reports of low cereal production across the world that gave rise to speculations in the market and manipulation by the traders.
Report from Benapole said some greedy traders purchased rice at West Bengal trading centres at prevailing price of IRs 13 per kg or about $325 per ton and imported by opening letters of credit (L/Cs) at prices up to $505 per ton.
The last aman crop was badly affected first by two successive flood and again by the devastating cyclone Sidr just before the harvest. In fact, Bangladesh is being subjected to flood almost every other year. Aman plants are washed away by high flood. Boro, the other main rice crop, is damaged in areas ravaged by hailstorm and flash flood that usually sweeps over greater Sylhet and part of greater Mymensingh district.
Earlier in the 80s, an elderly reputed Japanese agriculture scientist was engaged with BRRI. He had suggested that agriculture officers and scientists must be in the field instead of sitting in their offices, test soil, advise farmers how to treat plants and apply fertilizer. The Japanese scientist had told this correspondent: "In Japan, agriculture officer in each prefecture (district) is answerable for failure or low production in his area."
Our farmers use to reap bumper crop when favoured by the nature. For three successive years during 1996-2001 Awami League regime the harvest was good. But the price of paddy at grower's level fell below the production cost. The farmers harvested a record boro crop in 1997. The paddy was sold at distressed price. The then agriculture minister Begum Matia Chowdhury made frantic efforts to persuade the finance ministry to release adequate fund and the food ministry to begin intensive procurement of paddy and rice from the growers to help them survive. But she failed to convince both the ministries.
Any government with vision and prudence would go for procurement from bumper crop of rice on two counts - build up a comfortable stock and protect farmers from being forced to sell at distress price. Once in the mid 50s the government had released old stock of rice from its warehouses. This scribe remembers buying that rice at Rs 9 per maund from a big boat in the village market. The rice was so old that it became yellowish and required longer period of time to boil.
Dr Shahidul Islam, the present Director of Agriculture Extension, is happy at the prospect of a bumper boro crop this year. Working in office till late in the evening the other day he said high price of food grains has encouraged the farmers. Blessed with favourable weather they harvested bumper winter crops - potato, wheat and mustard seeds. Boro has been cultivated, for the first time, in all the districts and the plants were nurtured well with the hope of an incentive price. The harvest may even reach 18.5 million tons, far exceeding the target, he hoped and prayed for protecting the crop from the hazards of hailstorm and flash flood before the harvest by the end of April.
The government says it has a stock of 300,000 tons of rice in addition to those with the traders across the country. The poorer section of people is half-fed not for scarcity but for abnormally high price. It is the problem that should be addressed by the government.
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