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COMMONWEALTH SUMMIT 2007
Climate stance isolates Canada
M. Shahidul Islam in Toronto
Passionately preoccupied with the gruesome aftermath of cyclone Sidr that devastated the coastal Bangladesh on November 15, the people at large are yet to know what exactly happened in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, where this year's Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting took place from November 23...25 without participation of our Chief Adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed.
This year's summit was one of the most effective ones in terms of the decisions the summiteers made and the impact those decisions might have on regional and global politics. The Kampala summit also witnessed Canada reasserting itself as a leader of the group in concert with Australia, shoving aside the United Kingdom, which had traditionally led the 53-nation bloc composed of former British colonies and territories.
In a nutshell, the summiteers prioritised the global climate change as their main agendum and the meeting ended with a reward for the most populous nation of the Commonwealth, India. It meted out a cruel penalty to the second most populous member, Pakistan, and threw the geographically largest one, Canada, into controversy for its refusal to agree to a 'binding' commitment by all developed nations to reduce the greenhouse emissions. Canada also took a stand against India, which branded it as a major environment polluter.
Although the decision-making in the Commonwealth is based on consensus, the group members have developed a tradition to cooperate within a framework of common values outlined in the Singapore Declaration of 1971. These are promotion of democracy, human rights, good governance, rule of law, individual liberty, egalitarianism, free trade, multilateralism, and world peace.
Democracy and human rights being in the forefront of the Commonwealth's agenda, the grouping on November 12 issued a 10-day ultimatum to Pakistan to restore the constitution and lift the state of emergency or face suspension. On November 22, Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth for violating the organisation's key principles. This measure proved anew that the bloc means business and needs to be reckoned with.
Bangladesh is the third largest Commonwealth member. Conspicuous by the absence in the summit of the country's head of the interim government, who cancelled the trip due to more pressing domestic compulsions, Bangladesh received a lot of sympathy from the summiteers due to the disaster caused by cyclone Sidr and no further reminder to lift the state of emergency. But, on March 21, an alarm bell was rung by the organisation's Secretary General Don McKinnon, who said, "The state of emergency and suppression of political activities should be lifted without unnecessary delay."
Unless our current roadmap for holding a free and fair election is materialised to the satisfaction of international observers and the emergency lifted to pave the way for holding an election within the stipulated timeframe, Bangladesh too might face a similar censorship from the Commonwealth, say observers.
Despite the chief adviser's absence in the summit, Dhaka's achievements were not insignificant. Represented by the foreign affairs adviser, Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, the Bangladesh delegation managed to convince India during a bilateral discussion on the side line that the ban on export of non-Basmati rice from India to Bangladesh should be withdrawn in light of the havoc wreaked by cyclone Sidr. The ban being applicable against export to all countries, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee agreed to make an exception for Bangladesh only. This may ease the pressure on the availability and the price of coarse rice in the coming days.
Bangladesh also supported Sri Lanka's initiative to host a Commonwealth Special Ministerial Meeting on "terrorism" in Colombo sometime next year and discussed bilateral matters with the leaders of a number of other countries, including UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband.
Viewed objectively, the impact of the Kampala gathering seems to be most profound on the South Asian and global politics. The attending leaders appointed Kamalesh Sharma from India as the organisation's new secretary general. Sharma is the current Indian high commissioner to Britain and a former ambassador to the United Nations. With Sharma as the first secretary general from an Asian Commonwealth country and his election coming ahead of the next Commonwealth Games in India in 2010, the South Asian giant seems to have gained much from the summit.
On the flip side, Sharma's election is being viewed critically by regional and global observers due to the impact it might have on Pakistan's re-entry into the organisation, considering the entrenched rivalry between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Deflecting questions on Pakistan's suspension, Sharma said the grouping's relations with Islamabad were McKinnon's responsibility until his coming to office on April 1. "Between now and that time there are four months to go. In any event, we have a working mechanism and it is for him [McKinnon] or his team to make observations on issues of this nature," Sharma said.
The Pakistan issue has ripened into a grave one for other historical reasons, too. Commonwealth membership is purely voluntary and governments can choose to leave the organisation anytime. Pakistan left it in 1972 protesting at the Commonwealth's recognition of Bangladesh, but rejoined in 1989. Zimbabwe left the bloc in 2003 when the Commonwealth refused to cancel its suspension for human rights violations and "deliberate misgovernment". This time too, Pakistan said it would reconsider its relationship with the Commonwealth, a diplomatically coded message that implies threats of voluntarily abstaining from being an active member of the group.
That may not bode well for a nation that stands at the centre of today's global politics. The Commonwealth may not seem to have the teeth to bite through sanctions or other punitive measures, but the membership of the organisation does have its rewards.
Comprised of 53 countries, including three OECD members, with a combined population of 1.9 billion people, which is almost a third of the world population, 1.4 billion of the Commonwealth citizens live in South Asia. Economically, the total GDP of the grouping amounts to about $7.8 trillion, which accounts for about 16 per cent of the world economy. Pakistan is not only the second most populous member of the Commonwealth but is also a nuclear-armed Muslim nation, standing at a precipice of severe instability. It needs more friends than enemies from among the community of nations and now is not the time for it to antagonise the Commonwealth.
Besides, a Commonwealth without South Asia and Canada may not be worth its existence. The three largest populous countries of the grouping are in South Asia (India 1.1 billion, Pakistan 165 million and Bangladesh 148 million.) and the three largest member nations in terms of geography are Canada (3.8 million square miles), Australia (3 million sq miles) and India (1.2 million sq miles).
Over the decades, the geographical giant, Canada, has been emerging as an economic power and earned much esteem globally due to the comparatively pacifist foreign policy and a much humane immigration policy it has pursued. The international peacekeeping is also a virtual Canadian gift to the world that came in the aftermath of the Suez crisis in 1956. The then Canadian secretary of state for foreign affairs, Lester B. Pearson, broached a proposition to disengage the warring parties by inserting between them a force sponsored by the UN and made up of soldiers from non-combatant countries. The formula gained global acceptance subsequently.
Despite Canada's global clout being so high and so honourable, this year's summit has been quite different for Canada. And Canada too had a lesson or two to learn.
In the Kampala summit, opposition from Canada and Australia aborted a drive led by Britain and many environmentally vulnerable nations seeking to issue a strong statement on global warming, urging all developed nations to abide by binding targets for emission cuts. Canada called such a 'binding' commitment as 'stern' and refused to budge.
The Canadian stand, spearheaded by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has frustrated many nations faced with severe impact of global environmental vagaries. "We believe that a number of developed countries have not given the commitment we expected. They are the main contributors to the imbalance in climatic conditions and they should contribute much more," said Denzil Douglas, prime minister of the Caribbean nation of St Kitts and Nevis that has been bearing the brunt of recurrent natural disasters in recent years.
Like Bangladesh, St. Kitts is among the countries likely to be worst-hit by global warming as rising sea levels will submerge its populated coasts and higher ocean temperatures will increase the frequency and severity of hurricanes and cyclones.
Malaysia also expressed disappointment at the outcome of the summit. Asked about Canadian "intransigence" and the lack of specific targets on emissions, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said, "In some way, I do feel a little bit disappointed."
Canada, an oil producer, said it would not sign any final declaration that did not include developing as well as developed nations. It argued that India and China are also major emitters, but as developing nations they are exempted from the Kyoto protocol.
Hemmed in by intense criticism, Harper still preserved his buoyancy and seemed pleased with the outcome of the summit. He told the closing conference that a substantive deal was delivered that would successfully set the stage for UN climate negotiations in Bali next month. "I believe we have much to be pleased of from the work that we have done here," Harper said, adding, "Canada's view is we need binding targets on all nations. The proposed wording would not have applied to greenhouse gas emitters from developing Commonwealth countries such as India."
Australia was the only other country to have shared Canada's position. That, however, matters less as the defeat of John Howard's government in the just concluded elections, and the new Labour government's pre-election promise to ratify the Kyoto climate change accord, will have left Canada as the only Commonwealth country opposing binding targets of greenhouse emissions by developed countries.
Besides, the Canadian and Australian moves were in discordant with the aspirations of the UK and many other countries, who wanted to present a united front (with a declaration) to provide a serious momentum to the next month's UN climate change conference in Bali. The Bali gathering is expected to adopt a plan for carbon emissions that will govern the international climate regime on expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
Harper's critics within Canada say if the Australian election outcome is anything to go by, the Canadian stance at the summit is likely to have a serious impact on the next Canadian general elections. Although Harper's Conservative Party still enjoys a substantial lead in public support, the environmental issue is gradually becoming a lead agendum among the Canadian voters, too.
In reaction to Harper's stance in the summit, Stephene Dion, a former environment minister and leader of the opposition Liberal Party of Canada, said it was precisely because of Canada's economic strength as a major industrialised power that it must take the lead in cutting greenhouse emissions, rather than waiting for other nations to address what he termed the "worst ecological threat of the century".
There are some who say Harper finally lost what he gained at the summit's commencement by showing resoluteness and strong leadership in making a tough decision to punish the Pakistani military ruler for subduing the Constitution and violating human rights.
That may be true. Seemingly frustrated by the Canadian and Australian obduracy, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown still tried to show a cheery face in his concluding remarks. The Commonwealth now has "a greater understanding" of climate change and that a new agreement is needed after 2012, Brown said. "That agreement should include all the different continents. The question then is: Can the European targets be replicated or at least mirrored in some way in other parts of the world," he queried.
Taken in totality, the Kampala summit has been one of the most illustrious ones in the history of the Commonwealth's existence as an international organisation. It not only delved deeper into substantive issues, there were adoptable lessons for nations like Canada, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.
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ADB QUARTERLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Senseless debate rages on over Hua Du's comment
Faruque Ahmed
It is indeed a storm in a teacup, an uneasy debate, particularly in the wake of the devastations wreaked by cyclone Sidr. It landed last week when the Asian Development Bank (ADB) country director, Hua Du, said, "Bangladesh's economy is going through the most critical and challenging period since independence because of the extensive damage caused by natural calamities and the increase of oil prices in the international market."
The remark has drawn adverse reactions from certain quarters that seem to have downplayed her motives in the post-cyclone situation and taken it in a bigger political context. In juxtaposition, many people believe it is not the time to see everything critically and blow insignificant issues out of all proportions, when the country is trying hard to muster international support to overcome the post-flood-and-cyclone situation.
What she told a news conference was that, "I have been here for about five and a half years and have studied about Bangladesh for several decades since its independence. But I have never sensed such difficulties as the country is going to face this year."
She, however, did hope that Bangladesh would be able to overcome its losses with international assistance and that the second half of the current fiscal year would prove productive.
What Du said has no malice but is full of sympathy and concerns for the millions of cyclone-affected homeless people, their dead and injured family members, and the paralysed nation as a whole.
Many people rather believe she should have been appreciated and the government and the media should have used her concerns to support and strengthen the country's diplomatic endeavours to mobilise assistance from the global community in overcoming the catastrophic situation.
They said when the country's diplomatic voice remained weak and partly sunken, Du's statement had all the elements to strengthen the country's case to the global community, and it must be seen from that light and properly exploited.
Some criticism is just 'rubbish and self-defeating', said a senior journalist commenting on the debate.
A leading businessman, on the other hand, said she could have used more 'encouraging words' in projecting the country's economic outlook.
Some other critics of Hua say, compared to several past calamities, it is not the worst time in the country's history. The famine in 1974, the Urirchar cyclone in 1985, the 1991 cyclone, and the floods of 1988 were some of the worse catastrophes the country had witnessed in the past.
But what is wrong, many wonders, with a person having full sympathy for an afflicted nation and its people saying she 'never sensed such difficulties as the country is going to face this year' while exclusively quoting the human tragedies and devastations caused by the recurrant flooding and a draconian cyclone on the life, economy and business.
Obviously, Du did not see or experience the past cyclones and, so, to her the present difficulties may have appeared as no less catastrophic than the past ones, moving her emotionally. People say, at best, there can be an academic debate on the comparative scales of devastations wreaked by the latest and the previous cyclones, but not the kind of criticism of an honest expression.
I personally respect all the persons who issued statements criticising Du and also work with many of them on different issues, but in this case I would like to differ with them. I would rather say Hua Du should have full appreciation for the concerns she expressed for this country.
At the launching ceremony of the bank's quarterly economic update on Bangladesh at a news conference at the ADB country office in Dhaka on Tuesday, she said the natural calamities were likely to take their toll on the country's growth, bringing it below 6 per cent in the current fiscal year from 6.5 per cent in the last year. There is nothing to be exasperated with in the estimate.
The outlook has identified "the fall in external demand for garments as another reason for the low GDP growth this year." It further said, "The economic prospects will depend on post-flood and post-cyclone rehabilitation, recovery of the garment sector and political stability in the lead up to the general elections scheduled for the end of 2008."
The business confidence in the country has been severely affected by the government's ongoing anti-corruption measures, the report observed, adding that the eviction of illegal businesses also created fear and uncertainty among the business and investors' communities. It referred to a sharp decline in the number of projects and investments as entrepreneurs remained reluctant to undertake new ventures under the changed circumstances.
But Hua Du hoped the country's economic growth would benefit from these measures in the long run. The ADB said the losses from flooding, which visited the country twice this year, washing away standing crops worth to the tune of $1 billion or 1.4 per cent of the GDP.
The devastations wreaked by the cyclone will multiply the losses caused by the floods, observers believe.
Hua Du hoped for an early economic recovery, saying businessmen released from jail told her they would now work to reenergise their businesses.
The report puts the estimated agricultural growth at a moderate 2.2 per cent this fiscal year, down from 3.2 per cent in the previous year. The production loss from the floods has been estimated at 1.3 million tonne. The mid-November cyclone has damaged about 38 per cent of aman in the coastal districts, but the losses may be offset by a bumper boro crop, according to the ADB outlook.
These were the major findings of the report. Hua Du further said the ADB would not put pressure on the government at the moment to increase the prices of gas, water and electricity. She, however, clarified the stance later, saying that the government would have to raise the prices sometime later as part of a 'sequence and urgency' to reduce the budgetary deficits.
Back to the criticism; there is no denying the fact that the people of Bangladesh do not agree with many of the policy prescriptions of the ADB, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and many of them are opposed to them as a matter of principle as well as on practical grounds. But both the time and the context are different now and the statements of their functionaries need to be viewed from this perspective.
When one of the critics, who is also a leading thinker of the country, held the ADB and such other multilateral lending agencies and diplomatic quarters responsible for the current crisis, he essentially pointed to its political aspects. He said these people installed the present government in power and this is our biggest crisis at this time. In this context, he raised the question whether these organisations or their representatives had the right to speak on the country's present situation.
True that may be. But how can we make them responsible for the widespread recurrent flooding and cyclones, especially when someone is speaking in a humanitarian context after a huge catastrophe. People also believe it is not the time to politicise economic issues or question the sentiment of a person moved by our difficulties. Not only that, at this time point, we should rather acknowledge their sentiments and efforts as they are trying to mobilise huge relief and rehabilitation assistance for the affected people.
For instance, the ADB so far has committed $120 million in emergency assistance to Bangladesh for post-flood-and-cyclone rehabilitation. It is also working with other financing agencies as the lead mobiliser for $60 million aid to boast the post-Sidr rehabilitation. These are in addition to the $400 million annual assistance that the country has been receiving on an average in the recent past.
Many people also wonder if the government is efficiently managing the cyclone crisis. It took almost a dozen precious days to decide whether it should make a call for official assistance to save the millions affected by the storm. Moreover, when Hua Du speaks about the impacts of the soaring oil prices on the economy and need for global measures to support the least developed countries, Bangladesh's economic leadership, such as the finance adviser, appears to be quite indifferent to the issue.
Critics also say we must remain alert against any emotional and counter-productive comment affecting the aid mobilisation. News reports on Thursday said the government asked the major donor agencies to provide half a million tonne rice to Bangladesh instead of cash assistance as the country's food deficiency might stand at more than 3 million tonne at the yearend.
So, we need to be rational and intelligent and avoid unnecessary misunderstanding, said many of the people who are watching the uneasy debate.
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POST-SIDR SITUATION
Country needs pragmatic crisis mitigation, not denials
Shamsuddin Ahmed
Finance, Planning and Commerce Adviser Dr. A.B. Mirza Md. Azizul Islam apparently has failed to grasp in its entirety the gravity of the situation caused by the colossal havoc wreaked on the economy by the recent recurrent flooding and cyclone Sidr. But foreign diplomats and international agencies are worried and apprehend that the country will face real difficulties in the next two to three months.
The recent observation of Dr. Islam that aman is not a major cereal crop of Bangladesh and that the damage caused by the November 15 cyclone will not affect the economy much has drawn widespread criticisms. How can the custodian of the exchequer ignore the problems of farmers, who constitute 80 per cent of the country's population, and of the nation as a whole? Understandably, his colleagues in the government were annoyed and felt embarrassed at his remarks. One of his supporters at a television talk show tried to defend Azizul Islam, arguing that he did not want to reveal the true picture lest people became scared, which would leave an adverse impact on the market.
Bureaucrats like Dr. Islam are generally timid. Newspapers on November 26 published official statistics on the damage and loss of lives in the cyclone. The government put the death toll in Sidr at 3,061 and the number of missing persons at 1,180. But, the next day, British High Commissioner Anwar Choudhury said, according to the information he had, the death count was 7,000. It is beyond our understanding how the government is benefited by suppressing the truth.
The foreign diplomatic circles in Bangladesh have been fed with information by independent sources, including the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society and non-governmental organisations like CARE and Save the Children, about the massive damage to crops, property, and infrastructure and the loss of lives caused by the category-4 cyclone. The finance adviser and his colleagues in the government woke up to the reality only when the international agencies expressed grave concern at the situation.
Assuming that around 10 lakh tonne aman has been ruined, the total supply shortfall of grains in the current fiscal year may run into 25 lakh tonne. The government has appealed to donors for 5 lakh tonne grains. Friendly and rich countries and blocs, including Saudia Arabia, the USA, the European Union, Pakistan, and India, and international lending agencies have pledged assistance to tackle the situation. Expressing concern, EU Ambassador Dr. Stefan Frowein said Bangladesh might face a real difficulty in March in terms of food deficit. "But we will try to help and see that the country does not face a big trouble due to the food shortage."
But mere pledges of assistance will not help. Informed sources said the assistance pledged by some countries after the twin flooding this year is yet to reach Bangladesh. We expect that the donors who have pledged assistance will keep their commitments and that the money or food aids are made available at the earliest to reach the needy.
According to reports pouring in from the affected areas, life is going on despite many odds. The people rendered homeless are living in makeshift huts of straw or polythene sheets. Many are rebuilding homes on their own. Fishing is the main occupation of the people living on offshore islands and in coastal areas. Many of them have started sailing to the deep sea for fishing. A report from Barguna says fishermen are facing an acute scarcity of ice needed to preserve fish. All the ice factories in the coastal belt have remained out of operation due to the cut of electricity supply. Power officials said it might take months to restore electricity supply in many areas, where poles were uprooted in the storm.
One thing is certain. The government cannot supply all essential items for life in relief nor do the survivors expect to live on relief. What they want is for the facilities and utility services to restart their occupation and earn their livelihood by themselves.
The best assistance for the cyclone survivors will be interest-free loans to procure fishing trawlers and nets and to rebuild their homes, interest-free farm loans for cultivation of the next crops and buying livestock, restoration of power supply, reconstruction of educational institutions and infrastructure, and construction of an adequate number of cyclone shelters under a mid-term project. People do not want to live on dole and relief for long. They are ready to put up with hard work and earn their bread by themselves. The assistance available from the friendly countries and international agencies should be channelled to facilitate the cyclone survivors return to their professions and restoration of damaged infrastructure.
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EC won't register BNP if it doesn't amend constitution
Mohammad Ali Sattar
Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Dr. ATM Shamsul Huda has caused some confusion. One is his statement about the independence of Election Commission (EC) and the other is on the political parties, especially the BNP.
Last week he came down heavily on the BNP. He said, "The EC will not register BNP unless the party amends its constitution to ensure practice of democracy within itself."
While meeting the Workers Party leaders at the electoral reform talks he said, "We have carefully examined the constitution of BNP. The party should apply for registration after amending its constitution." But he also spoke about other parties on the same subject.
Without naming these parties, the CEC said, "They talk about democracy but do not practise it within their parties."
Referring to the present stance of Jatiya Party (Ershad), the CEC said the acting chairman of the party has asked the EC to complete the electoral reforms soon so that the party can modify its constitution in line with the reforms.
The CEC is also facing a strong demand from some parties not to register the anti-Liberation and communal forces like Jamaat-e-Islami and other political parties based on religion. He said the EC would examine the constitutions of the parties when they officially apply for registration, which is mandatory for contesting the polls.
It is presumed that the political parties may not take things easily. Questions will soon surface about the legality of the demands of the EC regarding amendments to their constitutions.
It is true that the most of the parties reposed absolute authorities to their party chiefs to run the parties according to their sweet will. Democratic practice within the parties is conspicuously absent. The parties have overlooked this very shortcoming. But never made any move to correct them.
Even parties with a degree of democratic clauses seldom practise it. The leaders prefer to please the chief by empowering him/her to take any decision for the party. This is damaging for any party and democracy.
The CEC has come up with the most important point of democratising the parties.
Again there have been widespread allegations of financial irregularities since there is no accountability in collecting and spending the party funds.
Under CEC's leadership, the EC has taken a move by making it mandatory for the parties to democratise the party constitutions and ensure democratic practice within them. The EC proposals regarding registration say the office bearers of a party will have to be directly elected by party councillors. The proposals further say, a registered party will have to maintain accounts of its income and expenditure and will have to submit annual audit reports to the EC, adding that a registered party will have to follow its constitution.
CEC Huda said on receiving registration applications from political parties, the EC will examine their constitutions to see if they contain the elements stipulated by the commission to ensure inner democracy.
The CEC's observations have touched almost all the areas regarding the party constitution, democratic practice within the party, contesting polls and so on.
He further said, "currently, the commission does not have most of the parties' constitutions. We will ask for the constitutions from them when they will officially apply for registration. Besides, when we sit again with them next month we will ask the parties to correct their constitutions in line with our reforms," Huda added.
The EC made it clear that the entire process of registration of political parties with the EC will be completed by next June.
Explaining the reasons for introducing the registration system, he said the EC Secretariat has records of addresses of 168 political parties. "But more than half of these parties do not contest the elections. They use their names for getting political asylum abroad and selling their polling agents during parliamentary elections," he said. "The political parties only in name will not be allowed to contest the elections any more," Huda said.
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INTERVIEW OF PROF MASHRIQUI
Storm model he sent from US minimised Sidr disaster
Moinuddin Naser in New York
Hassan Mashriqui, an assistant professor at the Louisiana State University (LSU) of the USA, says he can help Bangladesh attain full efficiency in forecasting the impacts of cyclones more accurately by modelling the storms. It will help the administration take protective and preparatory measures faster and more effectively.
Almost 30 hours before Cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh coast, emergency officials had received from the LSU detailed storm surge maps showing the areas that would bear the brunt of the storm, which left several thousands dead and displaced millions.
Mashriqui was the first man who dispatched to Bangladesh officials the model of Sidr obtained from the university's Shell Coastal Environmental Modelling Laboratory (CEML). It was his dispatch that informed Bangladesh officials that the storm would hit Barguna first. The model also prompted the officials to evacuate the people from the coastal area that ultimately saved millions of lives.
"It's nice to know that the LSU's capabilities helped people there in minimising the damage, destruction and casualties caused by the cyclone," said Mashriqui. "It's a practical application of our theoretical research."
Mashriqui, who comes from Narsingdi, studied at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). He came to the United States in 1992 and obtained a PhD from the LSU, where he now works as the coordinator of biological and agricultural engineering and coastal engineering courses.
He said, when he saw the cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal on November 12, he contacted Robert Twilley, head of the CEML, and got access to the laboratory's supercomputing facilities to create storm surge models. When he received the first model of the cyclone, what he saw had him scrambling to contact Bangladesh officials.
"These models are incredibly accurate and highly detailed," Mashriqui said. "You can pinpoint events even at small towns. We were looking at a 10- to 12-foot storm surge that would devastate everything in its path."
Mashriqui started making storm surge models in the Bay of Bengal several years ago as a part of the LSU Bay of Bengal Cyclone Surge Modelling Programme.
Mashriqui said he first emailed the model and detailed information about the cyclone to Rouf, an official at the food and disaster management ministry of Bangladesh, and Rouf forwarded them to the secretary of the ministry, Ayub Miah. At the same time, Mashriqui sent another email with the same contents to the Institute of Water Modelling and Comprehensive Disaster Management. The ministry had received his message at about 5:00am on Thursday, 30 hours before Sidr made the landfall on Friday.
"The advance warning and information we were able to provide to Dhaka certainly saved many lives and helped lessen the devastations,' said the LSU teacher. "When you can pinpoint the areas of impact and determine the level of storm surge that far ahead of landfall, it provides the agencies and officials concerned with critical time to concentrate their efforts and resources to the areas that will need them most."
Mashriqui said Sidr this year lashed at the country at a velocity equal to that in 1970. He said the devastations wreaked by the November 15 cyclone were far less extensive than its 1970 counterpart as, after entering the country through Barguna, it exited very quickly through Habiganj.
The tidal waves whipped up by Sidr were also much smaller than those in 1970 as the storm travelled very fast, without getting enough time to batter the water of the bay into massive tidal surges, Mashriqui explained. If, on entering through Barguna, the cyclone had engulfed the entire coastal belt and exited through Feni, as was the case in 1970, the death toll could be to the tune of half a million as there would not be enough time to evacuate the people from the entire coast.
In his opinion, Bangladesh now has 90 per cent ability to predict the effects of cyclones accurately. To make it complete, what is required is to exchange ideas with the university where he works. He has a lot of data and is ready to hand them over to Bangladesh.
"What Bangladesh requires is to develop a programme in this regard," Mashriqui observed. Although Bangladesh is a neglected country, he said "we at abroad can contribute to the programme".
He said the cyclone formed on November 12 near the Andaman Islands as the sea was hot. But there will be no more such storm this year as the sea has already cooled down. So, the rumour that another cyclone may form in mid-December has no basis to it, he maintained.
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CYCLONE VICTIMS DRAW GLOBAL SYMPATHY
Saudi Arabia donates $100m as cyclone relief
Abdur Rahman Khan
Saudi Arabia topped the list of donor countries with US $100 million cyclone relief in cash, which has already been disbursed on Wednesday. KSA is going to send six Jumbo jets carrying relief materials for the cyclone victims. The first relief plane from Saudi Arabia arrived in Dhaka on Monday night.
So far the Government has received a commitment of US $200 million from donor countries and agencies. Already global communities have come up with huge relief in cash and kind to help the cyclone-affected people of Bangladesh.
Apart from that, the World Bank has committed to donate US $250 million for the rehabilitation programme, ERD Secretary Aminul Islam Bhuiya told a donors' meeting Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia could respond so quickly because a Saudi relief team was already in operation in Bangladesh since the twin floods devastated the country in September-October. An official of the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management said that the same team was immediately mobilised for cyclone relief programme. The Saudi donation is being distributed through government channel.
Two Pakistani flights carrying relief materials also landed in Dhaka on November 21 and 22. Pakistan also sent a 30-bed flying hospital with an Army Medical Corps team and good amount of emergency medicine. The mobile hospital is now operating in the cyclone-affected southern districts.
Pakistan also sent two naval ships carrying relief materials. The ships reached Chittagong port on Wednesday.
Two other Muslim countries, Kuwait and Libya, donated US $10 million and 1 million respectively to the Government fund.
Meanwhile responding to humanitarian appeal issued by the Geneva office of the international Red Cross and Red Crescent societies, various nations send relief in cash and kind directly to Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.
Immediately after the Cyclone Sidr hit the costal districts of the country the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRCRCS) appealed for 4 million Swiss francs ($3.6 million US/ €2.4 million) to assist 235,000 people affected by the devastating storm.
The international communities observed that the death figure was much lower this time due to advanced warning and the presence of CPP (Cyclone Preparedness Programme) volunteers who were mobilised to help alert and evacuate hundreds of thousands of people as the cyclone approached. The CPP volunteers were also found to be very helpful in emergency rescue and relief operation
Talking to the Holiday, Professor Abdur Rob, and Chairman of Bangladesh Red Crescent Societies (BRCS) acknowledged that responding to global appeal, Muslim brothers came up with huge relief assistance to help mitigate sufferings and rehabilitate the cyclone affected people of Bangladesh.
The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) has made a commitment to donate US $ 500,000 to Bangladesh Red Crescent Society. Apart from Saudi donation to the Government, Saudi Red Crescent has also committed to donate nearly US $ 30 million directly to Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.
Iran, Qatar and Turkey also sent cyclone assistance to Bangladesh. Some of them have sent assessment team to verify the need and place their requisition before their respective authorities.
Apart from Muslim countries, the US government donation for cyclone victims stood at about US $14.5 million. Japan has committed to donate US $ 4 million while China has donated US $ 1 million.
The Government has sanctioned taka 4000 million under the agricultural rehabilitation programme in the cyclone-affected areas. 3.2 million farmers would be benefited by the programme, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
The Government also sought from donors 500,000 metric tones of food grain. The World Food Programme has already committed to provide 71,000 tones while India is providing 50,000 tones and the USA is sending 25,000 tones of food grains.
The American people through the USAID have pledged more than $ 10 million of food for relief and immediate recovery efforts in the cyclone-affected areas. The Netherlands have already provided five million Euro through Red Crescent Societies and the NGOs.
Meanwhile, BRCS Chairman Professor Abdur Rob spelled out a long term programme for strengthening its activities in the Southern districts which are frequently affected by cyclone and tidal surges.
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CHANGING PAKISTAN SCENARIO
Musharraf resigns from Army, takes oath as civilian president
Jonaid Iqbal in Islamabad
Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf ceremonially handed over the command of the military on Wednesday in Rawalpindi. He passed a ceremonial baton to Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, his handpicked successor, at the army headquarters. In his farewell address, Gen Musharraf said the army was his "life" and he was proud to have been the commander of this "great force," which he served for 46 years.
Pervez Mosharraf took oath as civilian president for a five-year term Thursday in Islamabad. Attorney General Qayyum Malik said the oath of the president would be as per the 1973 Constitution.
Gen. Musharraf had been under great pressure to quit as army chief. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto welcomed President Musharraf quitting his army post but said her party was in no hurry to accept him as a civilian leader. She and other opposition leaders, as well as his allies in the West, want a state of emergency lifted ahead of January elections.
Dressed in full military uniform, Gen Musharraf arrived at the ceremony with a baton under his left arm.
The ceremony was shown live on PTV. "I am bidding farewell to the army after having been in uniform for 46 years," Gen Musharraf said in his address. He became army chief in October 1998.
President Musharraf's unpopularity has caused Western concern. The most serious pressure on the president to give up his uniform had come from the United States, his main international backer.
Washington has grown concerned in recent months at the army's inability to rein in pro-Taleban militants and by Gen Musharraf's growing unpopularity.
As a civilian leader, President Musharraf will still have considerable powers, including the ability to sack a civilian government.
"This army is my life, my passion. I love this army, and this relationship will continue, although I will not be in uniform," he said. Gen Musharraf said it was difficult to describe his emotions.
"I am fortunate to have commanded the best army in the world. This army is an integrating force, the saviour of Pakistan," Gen Musharraf said. "Without this army, the entity of Pakistan cannot exist."
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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT
Richard Nixon
K. Z. Islam
The name Richard Nixon (1913-1994) has become synonymous with the word 'Watergate'. The word has passed into the English language. Whenever there is a scandal the word 'gate' is added to it. Nixon was a member of the US House and Senate (1946-1952), Vice President (1952-1960) losing the Presidential election to John F. Kennedy in 1960 and President (1969-1974).
On 17 June 1972 night watchman Frank Wills was only mildly annoyed when he tucked at the locked door in the basement garage of the Watergate office block, and it swung open freely. This led to the discovery of the break in into the Democratic Party offices when five burglars were arrested. They were subsequently linked to the White House. This became one of a series of major scandals involving the Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP) including the White House enemies list and assorted 'dirty tricks'. The ensuing Watergate scandal exposed the corruption, illegality and deceit by some of those within the Nixon Administration. The term Watergate has come to encompass an array of illegal and secret activities undertaken by Nixon or his aides during his administration.
In July 1972, unease among the members of US Senate, both Republicans and Democrats had reached the stage where they voted to conduct their own investigation into the Watergate scandal. As the hearings began the staff of the White House and CREEP, who plotted the massive conspiracy and tried to cover it up, were falling out among themselves. One by one they resigned their post and began to face a series of trials before the Federal Courts. Only one man Richard Nixon, held out against the barrage of public and judicial demands for the full truth to be revealed.
In June 1973 twelve months after the Watergate break in, the Senate Committee called White House legal counsel John Dean in front of the television camera at the hearings. And slowly the truth began to emerge. Dean's testimony was electrifying. But with other White House officials refuting his accounts of events, it seemed, totally unsupported. Who was to corroborate his story?
The committee was carrying out a routine interview with Alexander Butterfield, a member of the White House internal security staff, trying doggedly to piece together a diary of events after the Watergate break in, of when the President had talked with John Dean, when he had talked with his chief of staff H. R. 'Bob' Haldeman, of what was discussed at these meetings, and which version they could believe of who said what and when.
Butterfield provided the answer in one stunning revelation. Every conversation in Richard Nixon's private Oval Office in the White House was infallibly taped by hidden recorders. Nixon had insisted himself on the system being installed long before his re-election so that he could have a record of all historic conversations for his memoirs.
It took a full year of delaying tactics by Nixon before the issue was presented to the Supreme Court, the highest judicial authority in the land. As the court voted unanimously to force him to handover the tapes, the Congress of the United States also voted to hand down articles of impeachment against the President. On 5 August 1974 Nixon made the transcript of the tapes public. The record of conversation of the Oval Office meeting on 23 June was the vital piece of evidence that might prove Nixon's guilt or innocence. It had been his first meeting with Haldeman after the Watergate burglary. The crucial conversation lasting eighteen and half minutes had been wiped clean from the tape. It had happened by chance, Nixon explained, when his private secretary accidentally hit the erase button on the tape machine as he prepared the transcript. No record of that conversation now existed.
It was the final blow to Nixon's credibility. Three days later on August 9, 1974 Nixon resigned. On September 8, 1974 a blanket pardon from President Ford who served as Nixon's second Vice President ended any possibility of indictment.
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UNESCO heritage mission to visit Sidr-affected areas
Moinuddin Naser in New York
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) announced on last Tuesday that it is sending a mission of experts next week to Bangladesh to assess how to help local authorities protect the country's heritage in the wake of this month's devastating cyclone.
The mission will focus particularly on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, which was inscribed on UNESCO's World Heritage List in 1997, the agency said in a press statement issued at its Paris headquarters. The 140,000-hectare forest is home to many endangered species, including the Bengal tiger.
Large swathes of the Sundarbans, which lies in the delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers facing the Bay of Bengal, are feared to have been damaged by Cyclone Sidr, which struck Bangladesh on 15 November, bringing torrential rain and winds of up to 240 kilometres per hour, devastating the region.
More than 3,200 people were confirmed killed and another 880 remain missing as a result of Cyclone Sidr, while almost 35,000 people were injured. The category 4 storm also destroyed or badly damaged infrastructure "including at least 1,300 schools" across much of the country. More than 7,500 other schools and educational institutions were partly damaged, according to local data, and at least 1.8 million acres of crops were ruined and over 500,000 livestock have died.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that an estimated 2.6 million people still need immediate life-saving assistance, such as food, drinking water, shelter and sanitation.
UN relief agencies, which are providing assistance with the help of national authorities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are drawing from a grant of $14.7 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF). So far more than $130 million has been contributed or offered as pledges to fund the international response to the cyclone.
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Why risk invaluable heritage for vague 'cultural benefits'?
Lala Rukh Selim
In response to the French, Embassy's reply entitled "Int'l show will bring cultural benefits to Bangladesh" published in a Dhaka based English daily to the statement of four citizens, we would again take this opportunity to voice our confusion as to what exactly are the 'cultural benefits' that are being alluded to? We as Bangladeshis are very secure of the cultural heritage that we have. We are proud of it as it reflects a past of assimilation, integration and syncretism. Any person in the world may learn of our culture spanning thousands of years from many sources and are always welcome to visit our land to study our culture. Why should an exhibition in France benefit Bangladesh, especially an exhibition where the priceless treasures of our country have been selected without involving Bangladeshi experts, where the cataloguing is inaccurate and unprofessional, where the insurance is laughable? Such an exhibition may benefit the French, but how it will benefit Bangladesh is not conceivable. We may have been able to consider the tangible benefits if the French government had agreed to send Bangladesh an exchange exhibition of its own priceless treasures. As there is no mention of any such exchange exhibition, the vague 'benefits' only succeeds in baffling us.
It makes us very curious as to why the French Government is so keen on the exhibition when we have learnt from reliable sources that the Expert Committee constituted by the Ministry of Cultural Affairs of Bangladesh has noted various points of serious concern. This has made the exhibition considerably controversial and much debated.
Firstly, the citizens of Bangladesh were completely in the dark while the French and Bangladeshi governments were planning, organising and implementing various stages of activities relating to the exhibition for nearly past four years. The people whose patrimony is to be transported to a foreign country were not informed of this impending fact. There was no media coverage, which would ensure the transparency of an event of such immense cultural magnitude. Would the Mona Lisa leave the Louvre without the people of France knowing of it?
Gradually, with constant prodding and litigation from citizens from various levels of society it came to light that there are gaping holes in the contract that has been signed between the two nations. Perhaps most horrifying and barbaric is the fact that even the exact number of artifacts packed to leave for France is unknown while some pieces lack identification, they do not have the counter signature of the concerned authorities or a listing of the museum accession numbers in the contract. The visual documentation is faulty and incomplete. The identification and documentation of the objects are obscure, inadequate and, in some cases, absent. The list of items has been wavering between 168 to 189, which may have been acceptable for a consignment of eggs or apples but for a priceless collection of artifacts this is unheard of. For example, the total number of coins is stated, but no details supplied as to their dating, material and description. The two invaluable Pala palm leaf manuscripts which are awaiting transport are so fragile that the number of pages cannot be counted. In view of the enormous value of these items, it looks like sheer lunacy to subject them to travel. Let it suffice to say that even a single sheet is enough to represent the refined achievement of that period.
More horrors were revealed when it came to be known that the Musee Guimet was given permission to restore the artifacts prior to the exhibition in the Guimet laboratory. These artifacts were mostly taken from display cases so the need for restoration does not seem to be relevant and the ones that need restoration should not travel at all. It is learnt that the Expert Committee is of the opinion that they should not be allowed to be restored after they leave the territory of Bangladesh because the contract is flawed by bad documentation and a very low insurance value.
Who will know if pages of the Prajnaparamita manuscript or a Maurya coin is missing if we do not know what and how many is going in the first place? What if some of them are missing when and if they are returned? What if they are damaged in transport or the transport destroyed? The "what ifs" are cause for deep anxiety for all concerned citizens of Bangladesh. What is also causing more dismay is the rather paternal and colonial psyche expressed by the French when they repeatedly remind Bangladeshis about the 'cultural benefits' to Bangladesh. Are the Bangladeshis less able to understand and judge what is good for themselves than the French? Do we need the patronising attitude of the French who pretend to know better what is good for us? Bangladesh has a glowing history. It has not colonised any nation. Imperialism is not part of its past. It has always assimilated and embraced the cultural influences that have entered from the outside world. It has only resorted to violence when faced with oppression and exploitation. It has stood up against the colonial power of the British, the Language Movement took place when its culture was challenged and the Liberation War against Pakistan was again a fight against oppression and colonialism. If anything, Bangladesh has a wonderful cultural image, which can in no way be bettered by any exhibition anywhere in the world. If the French government is bent on wresting our heritage from us by sheer force, let it be known that it will prove once more that history repeats itself and morals and ethics, law and justice plays into the hands of those who possess power. The French government is going against all codes of ethical conduct when they disregard our opinions and the laws of our land. We, the people of Bangladesh protest and will protest against this outrage and misuse of power. We want proper documentation, we want the due involvement of the professionals of our country and we want the just insurance value of our artifacts. Let it also be clear that the artifacts in question are the creation of the cumulative genius of our ancestors, creations inspired by the spirit and soul of our people, not the whim of nature, as are the mineral or natural resources of our country. We, the people of Bangladesh, demand respect and justice for our cultural heritage and we will not rest or hold our peace in the face of force.
The author is an associate professor at the Institute of Fine Art, Dhaka University.
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US pressuring India to change GM policy
Chee Yoke Heong
The decision by India to remove any restrictions on the import of genetically modified foods into the country is believed to be a result of mounting pressure from the US which is pushing its GM crops and foods into markets worldwide.
According to an NGO, Gene Campaign, the US (and its biotechnology corporations) has intensified pressure on India to change its policy to deregulate the sector on GM crops and foods, especially after the coming into force of the Indo...US Knowledge Initiative on Agricultural Research and Education.
US President George Bush has emphasised that the initiative is to promote a 'Second Green Revolution' in India which means promoting agriculture biotechnology, especially genetically engineered crops and foods. The Americans have asked for all restrictions to be removed to facilitate the import of US farm products into India. (when was the deal signed?)
On 23 August 2007, the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests issued a notification granting GM foods unrestricted entry into the country by withdrawing all existing regulatory oversight over the import of GE foods. This development allows the import of GE foods without the importing agencies having to acquire any permission from regulatory agencies, as has been the case so far, or even to inform them.
However, Gene Campaign has brought a legal challenge against this move, arguing that it is in violation of the Environment Protection Act as well as the right to health under Article 21. It filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court which got its hearing on 19 November, challenging the government's notification, which came into effect on 11 September, 2007.
Gene Campaign has urged the Court to strike down the notification since it is "unconstitutional" as it violates a number of the Articles in the Constitution. The new provisions are also open to possible abuse, says its Counsel.
So far, in view of the known health risks that are associated with GE foods, the government guidelines have required that import of GE foods can only take place with the express permission of the apex regulatory body in India, the GEAC (Genetic Engineering Approval Committee) and these must be labelled.
Dr Suman Sahai, convener of Gene Campaign, said that the regulatory oversight that currently exists was necessary and appropriate since it had allowed India to monitor the entry of food products produced by a new technology that is known to produce toxic and allergic compounds. The Indian regulations which made it necessary for permission to be taken from national agencies, allowed them to monitor the entry of GM products into the country. These regulations had also allowed India to maintain vigil that food products rejected by other countries are not in fact being dumped on India.
"The arbitrary withdrawal of the regulatory oversight without any scientific reason and without any consultation with a range of stakeholders that are engaged with GE technology and policies associated with it, is inexplicable," says Gene Campaign.
At a time when scientific evidence is growing from laboratory tests that genetically engineered foods can in fact cause serious damage to health, there is a need to upgrade the country's food testing systems and make them more stringent and comprehensive, rather than dismantling them, as the government is doing, it adds.
Also, it would be dangerous to allow unfettered access to unknown foodstuffs, more so when the country does not even have a liability law that would affix responsibility and claim compensation in the event that something should go wrong and people suffer health damage from the consumption of such GE foods.
Since no restrictions are to be imposed on imported GE food, they therefore need not be labelled. This new notification will in effect denies consumers their right to exercise their free choice in matters relating to the food they eat as well as expose them to the potential danger of such foods.
This move is therefore in violation of the Consumer Protection Act of India which grants consumers the right of informed choice. It also compromises India's long standing commitment to mandatory labelling of GE foods in international negotiations, particularly at the WHO-FAO-led Codex Committee on Food Labelling, says Gene Campaign.
-Third World Network Features
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Gen. Kayani: New Pak army chief
Our Correspondent in Islamabad
The new Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, took command from General Pervez Musharraf on Wednesday. Gen. Kayani enjoys the reputation of a thoroughly professional soldier.
General Kayani is the 14th COAS. Commissioned in the Pakistan Army in 1971, he has served for 36 years. "He's an excellent soldier and I can say with full confidence that under his command, the armed forces will achieve great heights," Gen Musharraf said.
Those who know General Kayani described him as a gentleman soldier. One of them mentioned two instances as evidence that the new Army chief was a professional soldier and a gentleman.
Born into one of northern Punjab province's largest and most powerful clans, Kayani, 55, studied at a military college in his home region of Jhelum, before training at the U.S. Army's Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, and the National Defence College in Islamabad.
After fighting as a lieutenant in the 1971 war against India, Kayani slipped into politics as deputy military secretary to Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 1988. He won accolades for sensitively overseeing troop movements in a tense 2001-2002 border standoff between Pakistan and India as the army's chief operational commander.
In September 2003, Kayani was promoted to command the army's elite 10 Corps in the garrison town of Rawalpindi. The chain smoker headed investigations into two December 2003 assassination attempts against Musharraf, securing several convictions, before being appointed director-general of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency in October 2004.
General Kayani's late father, Lehrasab, was Naib Subedar in the Pakistan Army. He got his talented son admitted to Military College, Sarai Alamgir, Jhelum. His father died when the young Kayani was training as a cadet. The tragedy put the burden of supporting his family on his shoulder, as he was the eldest of four brothers.
One of his brothers Khalid Pervez retired as Brigadier from the Army while another, Babar, served as Major. His third brother, Kamran, is a businessman. His sisters are all married.
General Kayani is married to the daughter of his maternal uncle. She is a housewife. The couple has a son and a daughter.
Though he is highly qualified and held a number of important positions, General Kayani's appointment as the General Officer Commanding (GOC) at Murree gave a fillip to his military career. His next job was the coveted Director General Military Operations (DGMO) at the GHQ. He then got the prestigious position of Corps Commander, Rawalpindi. Subsequently, in October 2004, he was appointed the head of the ISI. And finally, President General Musharraf made him the Vice Chief of the Army Staff and practically chose him as his successor.
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RSS offers Taslima Nasreen political asylum
A Correspondent
Saffron forces on Tuesday jumped into the raging controversy over Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen with Chief Minister Narendra Modi inviting her to Gujarat and RSS demanding political asylum for her.
"Taslima has been courageous in speaking out against fundamentalists. If the central government cannot look after her, send her to Gujarat. The people and government of Gujarat will look after her. I have the courage to protect her," the Chief Minister said while addressing an election meeting in Botad town of Bhavnagar district.
Modi, the Sangh's poster-boy, alleged that the central government was trying to send Nasreen out of the country.
Accusing the central government of not being clear on Bangladesh, Modi said first it was unsuccessful in stopping infiltration and now the political allies of those in power have overnight forced Nasreen to flee from Kolkata. He said Taslima, was first first sent to Rajasthan and then to New Delhi.
Speaking on the sidelines of a function in Delhi, RSS Chief K S Sudharshan told PTI that "she should be given political asylum.
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