Bali and beyond: What should be Dhaka's strategy?

Syed Tanveer Hussain

The world is about to attempt the biggest transformation ever in the way the global economy works as it grapples with climate change. The meeting on the island of Bali next month is designed to kick off two years of talks to an agreed successor to the Kyoto protocol on cutting carbon emissions that expires in 2012.That is the most ambitious, the most complex and the most difficult piece of diplomacy that has ever been attempted.
   Climate change poses huge ethical, political, economic and technical challenges. The global community had taken initial steps to address these challenges which falls far short of what will be needed in the years ahead. The key lies in changing mindsets among the major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan and make it look as an attractive, profitable proposition. Climate change issues should not be treated like the trade negotiations where nobody moves until everybody moves.
   Bangladesh will also be attending the Bali Conference next month. What are the key issues to be discussed at the meeting that are to directly affect Bangladesh ? Among the innumerable deliberations that will take place simultaneously, Bangladesh will have to plan its position in advance in a way to raise the conscience of the world to the inevitable adverse impacts of global warming. The biggest and most formidable task is to wean the lumbering carbon dependent developed countries' economies off their addiction. If proper steps are not taken now, Bangladesh will become the victim of desertification, drought, soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, spread of diseases and population displacement. Bangladesh will be one of the few hardest hit nations in the world by global warming.
   
   Dhaka's task in Bali
   Bangladesh has to firmly point out that we do not have the luxury of geological time scales of thousands of years and we are talking about facing dire consequences to humans and the environment in the coming decades. Heat waves, rainstorms, drought, tropical cyclones and surges in sea level are among the events expected to become more frequent, more widespread and more intense this century. As a result, water shortages, hunger, flooding and damage to homes will be a heightened threat.
   Bangladesh can no longer afford to say what is easy and politically correct. This will require focusing on maintaining the ecological and social policies necessary to do so.
   The recent UN Panel Report on Climate Change is a grim, depressing reading. Written by more than 2,500 top government-appointed scientists, it outlines the scientific evidence for global warming and ways to deal with it. The prognosis is portentous and dismal for countries like Bangladesh. The Bali Meetings is to take place in the backdrop of this UN Report. Bali will set the groundwork for the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. The report would guide global climate policy for the next decade and dictate the types of long-term investment decisions to be implemented by big industries and utilities. Bangladesh will have the advantage of pointing to this comprehensive UN Panel Report on global warming issues ... the first to come out in the last six years. It is also a synthesis of all previous analysis on the subject.
   The report points to five main areas of concern that are directly affecting Bangladesh. It says that current and future climate change may result in widespread global unrest and conflict. The basic premise being that deviations in temperature can hamper crop production, which in turn would have three crippling effects such as increasing food prices, a greater risk of death from starvation, and increased social tensions and violence. It also warns of the devastating impact for developing countries and the threats of species extinction posed by the climate crisis.Loss of biodiversity and plant life worldwide will take place.
   The report points out that there will be accelerated extremes in the number of cyclones and heat waves hitting countries in the sub-Saharan region and the lower latitudes. The Report warns that in spite of the protocols adopted by many Western countries after Kyoto, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise by between 25 and 90 per cent by 2030.
   The Report says that the possibility of melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets into the sea will result in water level rise between 10 and 40 feet all over the world. It also says that even a small increase in temperature of more than 2 degrees to 5 degrees could result in this ice melting at the poles. The pace of warming is quickening. Sea level rose only about 4 inches in the last 100 years. But that has now doubled in the two decades. Mild winter is now a thing of the past in many countries. Can we really adjust successfully? Yes, only if we can reduce emissions seriously in the next 10 to 15years
   Food shortages and acute crisis of water supply will be the order of the day in the low latitude areas such as sub Saharan Africa. Water will be in very short supply. People will start to move to areas where water will be available. The dangers of forced mass migration in search of water for survival carries with it another troubling set of political and migration problems.
   
   Task before politicians
   What can Governments and politicians do? The report underscores that all societies need to move to use renewable energy and solar energy by trying high fuel economy cars and highly efficient bulbs. This should become the top priority for all Governments.
   The report points out that even now there is a small window of opportunity for the next 10 to 15 years during which we should make serious attempts not to allow worldwide temperatures to rise over 2 degrees. Global warming has accelerated during the last 20 years and we must arrest the trend now. Scientists say up to 85 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions is needed to head off potential catastrophic changes that could lead to more floods and famine.
   "All countries" will be affected, according to the IPCC. But the brunt would be borne by the poor countries which bear the least responsibility for creating the problem.
   Bangladesh can make specific suggestions on emissions pricing mechanisms, carbon taxes and emissions allowances and policies to promote new climate-friendly technologies, most often to help a shift from use of fossil fuels.
   
   Specific recommendations
   Bangladesh team in Bali should aim to steer the conference in the direction of accelerating cuts in greenhouse-gas pollution after 2012, when current pledges under the UN's Kyoto Protocol expire.
   Bangladesh should recommend getting to a zero carbon energy economy by the middle of the century. That is a major political project. As the most prominent victim of global warming, Bangladesh has to make its presence felt by arguing forcefully.
   As a first step Bangladesh may commend the 27 nation EU for its decision in March to set a binding target for biofuels to make up at least 10 per cent of petrol and diesel used by vehicles by 2020, a big rise from current levels of about 1.5 per cent. That goal is part of an overall aim of increasing consumption of energy from renewable sources across the bloc to 20 per cent by the same year. Leaders from the EU bloc also agreed in March to set a binding target for biofuels to make up at least 10 percent of petrol and diesel used by vehicles by 2020, a big rise from current level of about 1.5 percent.
   Bangladesh should recommend growing biofuels crops on wetlands and other areas that naturally store carbon. The terrain should also not be home to large amounts of plants and animals that would lead to biodiversity loss if converted to farm land. The new criteria would apply to biofuels grown all over the world. The rules would encourage the use of second-generation biofuels, possibly by giving them extra weight. Such biofuels are derived from waste such as straw or wood chips that do not compete with food sources. They are not commercially produced yet and how to define a second-generation biofuels is still up for discussion.
   With the first Kyoto commitment period ending in barely five years, the international community must now decide what is the right mix of policies and commitments needed to build the momentum required to reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and help nations adapt to the unavoidable impact of climate change. Much is at stake ... not least the well-being of the future generations of humanity.
   The Author is a former Secretary to the Government in the Ministry of Environment and Forests and currently CEO of The Climate Change Company, a climate and environmental services company. Email: thussain@bangla.net

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Rain-fed farming to be reduced by half  if measures not taken

Martin Khor

All the latest that you need to know about climate change ... that in essence is the latest and most concise of the reports issued by the Nobel prize winning Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
   The report was launched on 17 November 2007 by the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the Spanish town of Valencia after an intense week of negotiating the final text by scientists and governments.
   The 23-page report is a synthesis of three other reports (on the science, the impact of and policies to mitigate climate change) totaling thousands of pages that the IPCC had issued earlier this year.
   The synthesis report makes sober reading and makes one wonder how life on Earth is going to survive when such seemingly insurmountable challenges abound.
   For example, the panel's chair Rajendra Pachauri said that even if emissions were curbed and Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere remained the same as now, sea levels would rise by between 0.4m and 1.4m because sea water would continue warming up, which makes it expand.
   "This is a very important finding, likely to bring major changes to coastlines, and inundating low-lying areas, with a great effect in river deltas and low-lying islands," he said.
   The report involved 2,500 scientific expert reviewers and 1,250 authors as well as policy makers from over 130 countries. That's why it enjoys such high prestige.
   The report's main message is that warming of the climate system is "unequivocal", and this is accompanied by increasing global air and ocean temperatures, rising global average sea level and reductions of snow and ice.
   One of the alarming effects is the increasing rate in global sea level rise, from 1.8mm a year to 3.1mm a year from 1961 to 1993. Sea level rise has been due to thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers, ice caps and the polar ice sheets. The projected sea level rise at the end of the 21st Century will be 18-59cm.
   Pachauri warned that warming would cause some impacts that are "abrupt or irreversible." For example, partial loss of ice sheets on ice polar land could imply metres of sea level rise; major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, and great effects in river deltas and low-lying islands.
   The report looks at the impacts by regions. Shockingly, in Africa by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress. And in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture would be reduced by 50 per cent.
   In Asia, the key problems are:
   * By the 2050s, freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease;
   * Coastal areas, especially heavily populated mega-delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and rivers;
   * Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle.
   The report shows that global warming is already taking place. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). In the past 100 years there has been a rise of 0.74°C in temperature.
   Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 per cent per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 per cent per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres.
   The report also projects an increase of global emissions by 25-90 per cent between 2000 and 2030, if nothing is done.
   For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emission scenarios.
   The report reviews five "reasons for concern" (representing key vulnerabilities) and finds the situation worse than when the IPCC did its previous assessment report years ago:
   * Risks to unique and threatened systems: 20-30 per cent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5°C-2.5°C over 1980-1999 levels.
   * Risks of extreme weather events, with projected increases in droughts, heat waves, and floods as well as their adverse impacts.
   * Distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities: There are sharp differences across regions and those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change.
   * Aggregate impacts: Initial net market-based benefits from climate change are projected to peak at a lower magnitude of warming, while damage would be higher for larger magnitudes of warming.
   * Risks of large-scale singularities: Global warming over many centuries will lead to a sea level rise contribution from thermal expansion alone which is projected to be much larger than observed over the 20th century, with loss of coastal area and associated impacts.
   The report ends briefly on measures to be taken to address the crisis. These include mitigation (preventing the situation worsening through action on energy, transport, industry, etc); adaptation (measures to reduce impacts); finance and technology.
   The IPCC's synthesis report helps to set the stage for the Bali meeting in December of the UN Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
   What the scientists in IPCC have laid out in scientific terms is going to be considered by policy makers at Bali when they discuss the methods and means to combat climate change.
   - Third World Network Features

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