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News Analysis on Iran
The Neo-con dog that isn't barking
Jim Lobe in Washington
For several weeks now, Washington has been abuzz with rumours that U.S. President George W. Bush is preparing to attack nuclear and other sites in Iran this spring - rumours deemed sufficiently credible that lawmakers from both parties are hastily preparing legislation precisely to prevent such an eventuality.
The evidence cannot be ignored.
As cited by former CIA officer Philip Giraldi in the most recent edition of American Conservative, Bush's charges that Iran is supplying bombs to Shi'a militias to kill U.S. soldiers in Iraq; the seizure by U.S. forces of Iranian diplomatic and intelligence officials there; the deployment of two aircraft carrier groups with a flotilla of minesweepers to the Gulf; the supply of Patriot anti-missile batteries to Washington's allies in the region; the unprecedented appointment of a navy admiral and former combat pilot as the head of Central Command; the "surge" of as many as 40,000 troops into Iraq; persistent reports of U.S. covert operations inside Iran - all suggest that Washington is preparing for a military confrontation, and soon.
No one doubts that the administration has developed detailed plans for attacking Iran and is certainly putting in place a formidable armada that, if so ordered, has the means to carry out those plans without delay.
But if indeed a decision has already been made, it appears that the faction that led the pro-war propaganda offensive in the run-up to the Iraq invasion and that has long favoured "regime change" in Iraq - the neo-conservatives - has either not been clued in, or more likely, believes that any such attack is still some time off, if it takes place at all.
It is not that the "neo-cons" don't favour war with Iran if diplomatic and other means fail to achieve either regime change or, at the very least, Tehran's abandonment of its nuclear programme.
The group, whose views on the Middle East generally span those of Israel's Likud Party and the extreme right, has long warned that a nuclear-armed Iran is, in Bush's words, "unacceptable" and that military means to prevent that outcome must be used if all other means fail.
"The only way to forestall an Iranian nuke," wrote Joshua Muravchik, a leading neo-con polemicist at the American Enterprise Institute in this month's Foreign Service Journal, "...is by military strikes to cripple the regime's nuclear programme."
It is, rather, more the fact that the neo-cons, who helped lead the year-long propaganda campaign to rally the country behind the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 with an admirable single-mindedness and urgency, appear far less focused on Iran, at least for the moment. If an attack on Iran is on the near-term agenda, the neo-conservatives have been decidedly off-message.
The contrast with the run-up to the Iraq war is instructive.
For a full year or more before the March 2003 invasion, the neo-cons and their major media outlets - notably, the Weekly Standard, the National Review Online, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the New York Post, and Fox News - kept up a virtually daily drumbeat of op-ed articles, television appearances, and selective leaks by their confreres within the administration with only one aim in mind: to persuade the public that Saddam Hussein represented such a threat that he could only be dealt with by military means.
As the invasion drew near, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the movement's de facto headquarters, drew scores of reporters to its weekly "black coffee briefings", where such neo-con worthies as Weekly Standard editor William Kristol, then-Defence Policy Board chairman Richard Perle, former CIA director James Woolsey, and Iraq National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi held forth on the evils of the Ba'athist regime and the regional implications of the forthcoming "liberation" of the Iraq people.
Carefully orchestrated and coordinated with their comrades in the offices of Vice President Dick Cheney and former Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, neo-cons were able to create a powerful media "echo chamber" that, by late 2002, centred entirely on Iraq, and the necessity of going to war, to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Their discipline and focus on Iraq four years ago has been nowhere in evidence with respect to Iran over the past month. Judging by their writings and television appearances, they have seemed far more concerned with the growing public and Congressional pressure to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and prevent Bush from adding more forces there.
That has been the overriding preoccupation of Kristol's Weekly Standard, National Review Online and the Wall Street Journal's editorial page. Article after article has assailed turncoat Republicans, as well as "defeatist" Democrats, for opposing the surge, as it has been for AEI, which has held four briefings on Iraq compared to only one on Iran in the past two months.
Despite the sharply rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. over the past month, for example, the lead editorials of the last four issues of the Standard - always a reliable indication of neo-con priorities - were all devoted to rallying lawmakers behind the surge.
That doesn't mean that Iran is not a major concern - and ultimate target for the neo-cons. Indeed, the cover story of this week's Standard, entitled "Iran's Obsession with the Jews: Denying the Holocaust, Desiring Another One", shows no hesitation in building up the case for eventual war against Tehran.
But the same issue ran yet another story that illustrates the relative lack of urgency for war: "Sanctions Against Iran Would Work," it was entitled, although its subtitle, "Too Bad They Won't Be Tried", hinted at the inevitability of war.
Nonetheless, to the extent that neo-cons, and their allies in the right-wing "Israel Lobby", are addressing themselves to Iran policy at the moment, expanding and enforcing sanctions, rather than imminent war, appears to be the main message.
Indeed, AEI fellows and fixtures in its "black coffee briefings" four years ago, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Gary Schmitt, just published an article last week on precisely this theme in the 'Financial Times': "How the West Can Avert War With Iran."
Similarly, television ads by the neo-conservative American Foreign Policy Council running on the major cable television networks in the Washington D.C. area at the moment warn the viewer about Iran's nuclear programme, its status as "the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism", and its president's alleged Holocaust denial and threats to "wipe Israel off the map". But they conclude with the relatively anodyne exhortation: "Call the White House and tell them to enforce sanctions against Iran today." Not exactly what one would expect on the eve of a military attack.
This tack may simply be a ruse to lull anti-war forces into complacency. Or it may reflect a fear that, given their record on Iraq, beating the drums for war with Iran may prove counter-productive (although AEI has not hesitated to take credit for the "surge" option). Or it may indicate that prominent neo-cons have somehow lost touch with the hawks in the White House and Cheney's office who are now determined to go to attack Iran this spring.
But it may also reflect the neo-cons' assessment, based no doubt on inside information, that Bush - who spoke about U.S. policy on Afghanistan at AEI earlier this month - intends to let the diplomatic game play out a little longer, perhaps as long as another year, before deciding to attack.
Courtesy: Inter Press Service
Tawa tribal fishermen lose
fishing rights in India
Bharat Dogra
The philosophy of Satyagraha or non-violent resistance, first employed by Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi, has been adopted by tribal fishermen in 44 hamlets on a dammed river in central India to protest against the loss of their livelihoods.
Every day since early January, except on government holidays, these tribal villagers have taken turns to hold a relay dharna (sit-in protest), outside the office of the Satpura National Park, a tiger sanctuary in Hoshangabad district, against the Madhya Pradesh state government's decision not to renew their fishing lease.
The reason cited is that their fishing grounds in the man-made Tawa reservoir fall within the protected area of the rugged and thickly forested park. But in 2005, when the Indian government appointed a Tiger Task Force to review the 30-year-old conservation project to save the endangered big cat, it had endorsed their fishing rights, say activists of the Tawa Matsyay Sangh (TMS), a federation of 34 fishing cooperatives that represent some 1,600 fishing families.
The task force in its report had expressly stated its appreciation of how these tribal fisherfolk had, for a decade, sustainably managed natural resources. According to the report, compared to earlier management first by the state and then a private contractor, ''the cooperative regime has been able to manage production, maintenance of stock, employment and income generation most efficiently''.
The members of the task force, among India's most-admired environmentalists, noted that per hectare production of fish was over 32 kg, three times the national average for big reservoirs. The TMS banned monofilament yarn nets to avoid over fishing. The private contractor, with an eye on profits, had forced fisherfolk to use these nets.
Moreover, the fishing season was closed for two months in the year to allow breeding. TMS members enforced the ban by patrolling in boats and jeeps. TMS earned the well-deserved reputation of a model cooperative - providing sustainable livelihoods with the enforcement of a conservation strategy.
But the government's refusal to renew the five-year fishing lease, which was first issued in 1996, has plunged the area in crisis. For the second time, the mainly Korku and Gond tribes are faced with loss of livelihoods.
Displaced in the 1980s by the dam on the Tawa river, a tributary of the much bigger Narmada, they were not satisfactorily rehabilitated.
While the overall figures of the number of people displaced by dam projects in India have never been accurately assessed, the World Commission on Dams, an independent, multi-stakeholder process, which addresses controversial issues associated with large dams, says the figures could be as high as 40 million people.
After several years of destitution, new hope emerged when the Kisan Adivasi Sangathan (KAS), an organisation of peasants and tribals, mobilised them to get fishing rights in the reservoir. The TMS was created soon after.
Rajendra Chaudhary, an economist at the Maharishi Dayanand University, Rohtak, who has studied reservoir fisheries, was all praise for TMS. ''It presents a very fine example of a well organised, honest cooperative which can be a source of inspiration for fisherfolks of other reservoirs,'' he told IPS.
But the authorities have a different opinion. The lease, which was due for renewal by Dec. 23 last year, has been allowed to lapse. The reason cited is 'legal difficulties'.
According to Sunil, identified only by his first name, a prominent TMS and KAS activist, the authorities think that by withholding the fishing rights from the cooperatives, they are attacking the bigger KAS, which has been exposing corruption in government.
''KAS has been exposing corruption. They (authorities) want to weaken the KAS and that is why TMS has not been given a lease,'' Sunil, who unsuccessfully fought elections to parliament as an independent candidate in 2004, said.
Surrounded by fisherfolk in the modest office of the TMS, he asserted quietly: ''What happened at Bargi and Totladoh (reservoirs) should not be allowed to happen here.''
The dam on the Bargi, another tributary of the Narmada, submerged villages in the 1980s. Villagers received only one compensation -- fishing rights in the reservoir; but this too was arbitrarily taken away from them after five years.
Totladoh dam was built between 1975 and 1985 on the Pench river near Madhya Pradesh's border with western Maharashtra. The displaced from Totladoh village were given fishing rights. But they were brutally evicted in 2002 by the government, which said the reservoir was within a protected national park.
''This was a most cruel eviction. People could not even gather their belongings. A pregnant women who was about to deliver a baby was not allowed medical care," recalled Chandra, a Communist Party of India (CPI) activist. Ultimately the village was relocated, but the fisherfolk lost their livelihoods.
The Tawa villagers are determined to oppose displacement a second time. ''We are determined not to leave our villages, come what may,'' said Premvati at a meeting organised by the TMS on the banks of the reservoir. ''Apart from fishing we are also able to cultivate small patches of land when the reservoir shrinks in dry weather,'' she added.
However, the authorities are in an uncompromising mood. Arrest warrants were issued for Sunil and nine other TMS activists. On Jan. 27, the forest department impounded two of the TMS' three motorboats following a clash between the police and villagers in Dhauri village the previous day. In retaliation, village women captured two forest department boats.
Immediately, 350 policemen were deployed in Dhauri. Violence was averted, and both sides agreed to return the boats. But the situation remains tense.
Courtesy: Inter Press Service
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NEWS IN BRIEF
More Hispanic Americans
converting to Islam
Steve Mort in Florida
The number of Hispanic Americans converting to Islam is growing rapidly-particularly in New York, California, Texas and Florida, which have the greatest concentration of Hispanic residents, Voice of America reports. Muslim leaders say interest in Islam has increased in the past few years, and they also note that Muslims and Hispanics, many of whom are immigrants, share a number of common concerns.
Steve Mort who reports after visiting a few mosques in Florida that there has seen a steady increase in Latino worshippers. The al-Rahman mosque in Orlando opened in 1975 and is the oldest Muslim place of worship in the city.
But over the years its membership has changed, and now increasing numbers of Hispanics, like Jesus Marti, are joining the congregation. "It's the right way to be worshipping God, and I love the Islamic religion. It really has given me a lot of knowledge, and I have learned so many things from Islam."
Jesus, a Puerto Rican living in Florida, converted to Islam only a year ago. He is one of tens of thousands of Hispanic Muslims in the United States: estimates range from around 70,000 to 200,000.
He says that while he has faced criticism for converting to Islam, he has found broad acceptance as a Muslim in America. "Islam is not a country. Islam is a religion. Islam is definitely a way of life, for discipline where you follow and you try to enhance yourself to get the most positive things out of yourself for the benefit of your own self and for the benefit of your own family and the society as a whole."
Muslim leaders say Jesus Marti and other Hispanics choose Islam for a variety of reasons. They say Muslims and Hispanics face common issues and concerns, like finding their way in a new, unfamiliar country. The media focus on Islam since September 11th has also been factor.
Imam Muhammad Musri is president of the Islamic Society of Central Florida. The society has about 40,000 members. Iman Musri says Latinos and Muslims find they have a lot in common. "There are so many common denominators between immigrant Muslims and immigrant Hispanics who see the issues common to both of them-immigration issues, as it is a big discussion in the United States, and there are other issues of trying to find a job, keep a job, buy a home-all the same struggles two groups of people happen to be going through creates this bond between them".
Hundreds of worshippers attend Imam Musri's mosque, and there is an increasing demand for religious literature in Spanish.
TV channels to cut torture scenes
Andrew Buncombe
In the hugely popular television series 24, federal agent Jack Bauer always gets his man, even if he has to play a little rough. Suffocating, electrocuting or drugging a suspect are all in a day's work. As Bauer - played by the Emmy Award winner Kiefer Sutherland - tells one baddie: " You are going to tell me what I want to know - it's just a matter of how much you want it to hurt."
But while 24 draws millions of viewers, it appears some people are becoming a little squeamish. The US military has appealed to the producers of 24 to tone down the torture scenes because of the impact they are having both on troops in the field and America's reputation abroad. Forget about Abu Ghraib, forget about Guantanamo Bay, forget even that the White House has authorised interrogation techniques that some classify as torture, that damned Jack Bauer is giving us a bad name.
The United States Military Academy at West Point has confirmed that Brigadier General Patrick Finnegan recently traveled to California to meet producers of the show, broadcast on the Fox channel. He told them that promoting illegal behaviour in the series - apparently hugely popular among the US military - was having a damaging effect on young troops.
According to the New Yorker magazine, Gen Finnegan, who teaches a course on the laws of war, said of the producers: "I'd like them to stop. They should do a show where torture backfires... The kids see it and say, 'If torture is wrong, what about 24'?
"The disturbing thing is that although torture may cause Jack Bauer some angst, it is always the patriotic thing to do."
The meeting in November was arranged by Human Rights First, a non-profit organisation that has launched a campaign against torture both in the real world and on television. It says that since the terror attacks of September 11, the incidence of torture in television shows has soared. In 2000 there were 42 scenes of torture on prime-time US television while in 2003 there were 228.
But during the fourth series of the show, broadcaster Fox was forced to air a series of public service announcements, following criticism about the series' portrayal of Muslims by the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Courtesy: The Independent, London
Avian flu and global climate change
Darcey Rakestraw in Washington DC
The growth of factory farms, their proximity to congested cities in the developing world, and the globalized poultry trade are all culprits behind the spread of avian flu, while livestock wastes damage the climate at a rate that surpasses emissions from cars and SUVs. These preliminary findings on avian flu and meat production, from the upcoming Worldwatch Institute report Vital Signs 2007-2008, were released today by research associate Danielle Nierenberg at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in San Francisco.
At least 15 nations have restricted or banned free-range and backyard production of birds in an attempt to deal with avian flu on the ground, a move that may ultimately do more harm than good, according to Nierenberg. "Many of the world's estimated 800 million urban farmers, who raise crops and animals for food, transportation, and income in back yards and on rooftops, have been targeted unfairly by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization," she told participants at the AAAS event. "The socioeconomic importance of livestock to the world's poor cannot be overstated."
In 2006, global meat production increased 2.5 per cent to an estimated 276 million tons. Sixty per cent of this production occurred in the developing world, where half of all meat is now consumed thanks to rising incomes and exploding urbanization.
Rising demand for meat has helped drive livestock production away from rural, mixed-farming systems, where farmers raise a few different species on a grass diet, toward intensive periurban and urban production of pigs and chickens. Because of unregulated zoning and subsidies that encourage livestock production, chicken and pig "confined animal feedlot operations" (CAFOs), or factory farms, are moving closer to major urban areas in China, Bangladesh, India, and many countries in Africa.
Locating large chicken farms near cities might make economic sense, but the close concentration of the birds to densely populated areas can help foster and spread disease, Nierenberg says. In Laos, 42 of the 45 outbreaks of avian flu in the spring of 2004 occurred on factory farms, and 38 were in the capital, Vientiane (the few small farms in the city where outbreaks occurred were located close to commercial operations). In Nigeria, the first cases of avian flu were found in an industrial broiler operation; it spread from that 46,000-bird farm to 30 other factory farms, then quickly to neighboring backyard flocks, forcing already-poor farmers to kill their chickens.
Due mainly to the spread of avian flu and the culling of birds, global poultry output rose only slightly in 2006 to approximately 83 million tons, roughly a 1-per cent decrease from the preceding year. Pig meat production, however, grew by 3 per cent to 108 million tons, an increase likely due to shifting consumption in Asia from chicken to pork due to concerns about avian flu.
Avian flu has existed among backyard flocks for centuries, but has never been found to evolve there into highly pathogenic forms such as the deadly H5N1 virus. In CAFOs, in contrast, where animals are concentrated by the thousands, diseases erupt and spread quickly. Trade in poultry from these operations is a culprit in spreading the disease to smallholder farmers.
Experts suggest that rather than culling smaller, backyard flocks, the FAO, WHO, and other international agencies should focus the bulk of their avian flu prevention efforts on large poultry producers and on stopping disease outbreaks before they occur. The industrial food system not only threatens the livelihoods of small farmers, it potentially puts the world at risk for a potential flu pandemic. "While H5N1...may have been a product of the world's factory farms, it's small producers who have the most to lose," says Nierenberg.
Intensive animal farming is not only deleterious to human health and economies; it is also responsible for a great deal of ecological destruction. The growing numbers of livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions (as measured in carbon dioxide equivalent). They account for 37 per cent of emissions of methane, which has more than 20 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, and 65 per cent of emissions of nitrous oxide, another powerful greenhouse gas, most of which comes from manure.
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Donor threats may not stop war
machine in Sri Lanka
Amantha Perera in Colombo
Will the Sri Lankan government forgo recent military gains in Tamil rebel-held areas of the island and heed the advice of donors to resume dialogue with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)?
At the recent two-day donor review that, President Mahinda Rajapakse was emphatic that the country did not want donor funding with strings attached. But then pledges of US$4.5 billion over the next two years are hard to argue and the government is keen to show that its military campaign enjoys support.
Economist and researcher Muttukrishna Sarvananthan said the government was probably betting on the donors not withholding funds. "I doubt the donors would hold back funds. The Japanese normally do not attach conditions to their aid either on economic liberalisation and reform issues or on the peace front. The Americans are also unlikely to stop aid unless the government goes back on its promise to come up with a power devolution package," Sarvananthan told IPS.
Much of the pressure on Colombo came from the European Union, which sent a low level delegation to the conference. EU chair, Germany, spoke of an aid freeze. Europe, nevertheless, accounts for only 10 percent of Sri Lanka's annual aid flow and has limited leverage.
The government can pursue its plans as long as the conflict is confined to the Tamil-dominated north and east of the island. "I think the government can move ahead on economic development in other parts of the country, if it could prevent attacks on economic targets outside the north and east, '' Sarvananthan said.
Yet, the donor review was a far cry from the last two meetings in 2003 and 2005, when the 'peace dividend' was constantly harped upon.
Each of those meets raised more than three billion dollars. The 2003 meeting also resulted in the European Union, Japan, the U.S. and peace facilitators Norway forming the co-chairs of the 'Tokyo Donor' conference.
At this year's meeting it was made clear that without any tangible progress in peace negotiations, development would be unsustainable and the World Bank took the lead in saying so.
''We want to ensure that the money provided by the donors does not fuel the war. There will be less cash if there is no progress on the peace front,'' a diplomat from a Western embassy said, asking not to be named.
But the fact remains that the government has hiked defence spending for 2007 by about 30 per cent to touch 1.28 billion dollars. A five-year-old ceasefire remains on paper as the country has slipped into all out confrontations between government forces and the LTTE. Since December 2005, some 4,000 people have died in the violence - including more than a thousand civilians - adding to the more than 65,000 deaths in ethnic war since the early 1980s.
As government forces steadily regain land under LTTE control, the latter have retaliated with a series of strikes in the south. The country's main port in the capital of Colombo came under attack on Jan. 27 when three militant boats made an attempt to infiltrate.
A similar attack in November was mounted on the southern port of Galle, a major tourist destination and the location for the donor meeting. The day before the Galle attack, 100 sailors died in a suicide attack in the north central city of Habarana, another tourist favourite. During the first week of January twin bus bombs killed more than 20 in the south.
Attacks in the Sinhala-dominated south have put pressure on the economy and caused tourist arrivals to slide. While the government's tough approach may disgruntle donors, many believe that Rajapakse may succeed if he sustains development in the south and puts forward a political solution to the ethnic conflict acceptable to donors - even if it is rejected by the LTTE.
Rajapakse has urged donors to make a disconnection between the war and economic development. "Our aim in defeating terrorism is to liberate the peoples who have become victims of terrorism. In such a liberation excise, we are committed to ensure that human rights are preserved and democracy is respected. We consider development in liberated regions and in rest of the north and east as critical in promoting sustainable peace and finding meaningful solutions to many potential conflicts within multi-ethnic and multi-religious societies. I have no doubt that our development partners will therefore separate terrorism from a conflict in a complex multicultural society with many income and regional disparities,'' he said.
However, donors were quick to point out that without peace any economic progress would be short lived. "The renewed and deepening conflict in Sri Lanka over the past six months or so looms over everything else that we might say here. There is no way to politely skirt this issue. As a major development partner to Sri Lanka, the World Bank would be failing if we did not place the conflict front and centre in our deliberations," Praful Patel, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Region, told the donor meeting.
While Rajapakse spoke of economic progress, Patel reminded the gathering that the last 14 months have been bloody and violent, especially for civilians. "The past year has not been good at all for the families of the more than 3,500 Sri Lankans killed as a result of the increased hostilities. Nor has it been a good year for the additional over 200,000 persons displaced by the conflict. It has not been a good year for the whole population of the north and east who have gone through serious difficulties and distress."
Although the recent months have witnessed spectacular military successes for Colombo, the government has come under severe criticism by the U.N. and other watchdogs for human rights violations and letting the humanitarian situation deteriorate. Aid agencies have complained of being forced to close projects in the north and east under government pressure.
The short-term bleak economic outlook with galloping inflation and an exchange rate under pressure did not seem to dampen a government that came out beaming at the end of the donors' meet. "The Sri Lanka Development Forum has announced new development assistance for 2007-2009 in the region of US$4.5 billion," the government announced triumphantly.
Yet, it was clear that the government had recognised that if it could put forward power-sharing proposals, it just might wriggle out of a tight corner. "The government and the development partners agreed that terrorism should be separated from finding a solution to the conflict and that a lasting solution should be found through a negotiated settlement," an official statement said.
On the ground, however, the Sri Lankan army is preparing to launch a major drive to clear the east of the LTTE, according to reports from the area.
Courtesy: Inter Press Service
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ISLAMABAD DIARY
Jonaid Iqbal
An awful incident happened in Samjohata Express, the train that ferries passengers from Pakistan to New Delhi, and returns the next day. More than 300 Pakistanis were on the train to take return ride home when it was blown up at Dewane, near the historical Panipat plain, famous in history for the war between Emperor Zahiruddin Babar and the then Lodhi King Ibrahim. Panipat is 60 kilometers from New Delhi.
Reports say 67 people died in the incident, most of them Pakistanis. The scene reminded people of massacre that were daily occurrences in trains moving to Pakistan during the massive migration of Aug.1947. A Lahore newspaper wrote 'Partition' as caption below the colour photo of the burnt train.
The tragic incident occurred due to two crude bombs that exploded inside the closed compartments. There were kerosene bottles inside the compartments that fuelled the explosion fire burning most of the passengers in two compartments of the train.
According to a report filed from New Delhi, forensic experts who collected samples from the train were of the view that low-intensity sulphur or nitrate-based explosives were used to trigger the blasts with kerosene-filled bottles acting as catalyst to spread the fire. Television pictures showed a big plastic suitcase with wires and a plastic bottle attached. Another suitcase was stuffed with plastic bottles, which officials said contained a flammable liquid
Doors of the compartments are locked when trains travel between India and Pakistan. Indian Government said it was a terrorist attack. Probably the attack was made to put on hold the peace process between Pakistan and India but Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf said the process would continue regardless.
"Such wanton acts of terrorism will only serve to further strengthen the resolve to attain the mutually desired objective of sustainable peace between the two countries" We will not allow elements who want to sabotage the ongoing peace process to succeed in their nefarious designs, General Musharraf said.
The Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh also repeated a pledge that works of a handful of terrorist would not deter the two governments of India and Pakistan from the peace process. Some advancement has been made in moving the peace process forward.
Indian Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav said it wa a sabotage, and an act of terrorism. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam expressed grief over the loss of lives in the explosions onboard the Attari train.
"Whoever is behind the incident is against peace and wants to spoil our growing relationship with other countries," Mr. Patil said. "Our sympathies are with the family members of those who lost their lives in the incident. We will find ways to help them out," he added.
President Musharraf, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, Foreign Minister Mahmud Ali Kasuri al three of them have expressed profound grief and shock over the tragic loss of lives in the bomb blasts. They were hoping the Indian government would take all measures to catch the perpetrators of the crime to justice.
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz also spoke to Dr. Manmohan Singh about the incident. After reaching New Delhi on schedule on Tuesday for a meeting with his Indian counterpart, Foreign Minister Kari visited the injured persons in a hospital in New Delhi and agreed to a suggestion that there should be further cooperation betwen Pakistan and India in fighting acts of terror.
Pakistan is sending C-130 transport plain, with a medical team, to bring in dead bodies and tend the injured. India has given permission for the Pakistani aircraft to reach New Delhi.
Meanwhile India has taken further steps to provide security on trains running between the two countries.
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Five years of ceasefire: Peace option
is still open
Jehan Perera in Colombo
As the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement approaches there are strident public demand for its abrogation. The Sinhalese nationalist parties have consistently taken the position that the Ceasefire Agreement is detrimental to the sovereignty of the country. In an interview with the BBC, President Mahinda Rajapaksa too recently stated that the Ceasefire Agreement was a mistake as it had formally recognized the existence of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam-controlled territory within the country. The nationalists who oppose the Ceasefire Agreement have claimed that once it passes its fifth year, international recognition of permanent Tamil Eelam control over that territory would come naturally.
Reports from the LTTE-controlled territories indicate that the misgivings about the Ceasefire Agreement are not limited to the President or to the Sinhalese nationalists. There are reports of a growing rift between the LTTE's military and political wings regarding the developments after the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement. The political wing leaders are blamed for having opened the roads connecting the Tamil Eelam-controlled areas to the rest of the country. They have permitted the winds of change to blow through their controlled areas, without obtaining long lived political gains. The Tamil Eelam continues to be on the banned list of many countries, and several more banned it during the period of the Ceasefire Agreement on account of the misdeeds committed by the Tamil Eelam.
On the other hand, most people believe that the Ceasefire Agreement was beneficial to the Tamil Eelam and led to its strengthening on the ground, which is only now being reversed due to the military actions of the government. The ability of the Tamil Eelam to enter freely into government-controlled territory and open political offices, and even to set up military camps in some contested areas, looms large in this negative view of the Ceasefire Agreement.
But the much ignored fact is that the period of the Ceasefire Agreement also saw the greatest weakening of the Tamil Eelam in the history of that organization. This weakening took place without the government that signed the agreement having to fire a single bullet, take a single life or destroy a single building. It occurred when Colonel Karuna, eastern commander of the LTTE and first general of the Tamil Eelam, along with his entire cadre, broke away from the Tamil Eelam in March 2004. Whatever his motivations were, the existence of a ceasefire that had continued for over two years at that time, created the space for change and for action based on dissent.
Human rights
On the other hand, today, the resumption of war and the dishonoring of the Ceasefire Agreement, has also opened up the space for change. The LTTE is on a political and military back foot especially in the east, which they have virtually lost. Karuna and his group are rapidly increasing their power and institutionalizing their presence in the east with their political party, the TMVP. But these changes have come at a terrible price that has cost the people of those contested areas very dearly. They have had to face the barrages of multi barrel rockets and the large scale destruction of their livelihoods and homes. The other price that the country as a whole is being called upon to pay is the opprobrium of the international community.
From being a textbook model of conflict resolution five years ago, Sri Lanka is on the desperate journey to international pariah status. Although the government is strenuously defending itself in international human rights forums, and rallying other third world countries to support it, the forces of human rights arrayed against it are also formidable. While diplomatic protocol might lead foreign governments to accept the government's denials of human rights violations at their face value, the human rights lobbies do not face those same constraints. These forces now include leading politicians in the United States, such as Senator Edward Kennedy and former Presidential candidate Senator John Kerry, two other senators and 34 Congressmen have issued resolutions calling on the government to improve on its human rights record.
There is also an international eminent group of 16persons who have been mandated by their countries to be part of the Presidential Commission on Serious Human Rights Violations as observers. The presence of this eminent group will pose a great challenge to the integrity of the Sri Lankan judicial and police processes. Any attempt to prevaricate or to block the investigations is likely to count heavily against the government. It can lead to an escalation of sanctions against the government such as the German government's holding back on the funding of new development projects and the absence of firm donor commitments at the recently concluded Donor Forum meeting in Galle.
On the other hand, if the government shows that it is willing to genuinely work together with the international eminent group to ensure that the truth about human rights violations emerges, the government might be able to salvage its reputation. Instead of flat denials of all human rights abuses, which are difficult to take seriously.
Bleak situation
For those who value peace and human rights the situation in the country is a bleak one at present. Whether it is the government, LTTE or opposition they all face crises of different sorts. The departure from the government of former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera and his pin pointing of the deficiencies of the government, indicate that its strength could be a brittle one. If there are reversals, either military or economic, the cracks within the government could widen. But there is presently no government-in-waiting, as the main opposition party, the UNP, is debilitated by the crossing over of its most senior members into the government. Therefore it is unable to be an active force in directing the country onto a different path.
Likewise the weakened military performance of the Tamil Tigers in the east together with reports of tensions between its military and political wings also indicates vulnerability. There are also reports of the great distress of the civilian population under LTTE control, especially with regard to the manner in which children are being conscripted and elders are being forcibly given military training. The dream of obtaining liberation in Tamil Eelam has become a bitter and constantly worsening experience.
The deterioration in the situation could scarcely have been imagined even two years ago. At that time the country was still inundated with generous international goodwill and money after the tsunami, and the government and LTTE were on the verge of reaching agreement on a joint mechanism to disburse that aid. On the other hand, as Sri Lanka's recent experience shows, unexpected changes can take place with rapidity in both directions. In 2001 the situation in the country was worse than it is today, and there seemed to be no solution to the problems that were afflicting the country. The military conflict was escalating and the economy was in sharp decline. Out of the blue, as it were, the Ceasefire Agreement of February 22, 2002 turned the situation around for the better. The potential for a similar change today cannot be ruled out.
Despite the bleakness in the country, President Rajapaksa remains the dominant political figure. In the course of the past year, the President has shown a great capacity to keep to what he believes in and to take the majority of the people along with him. His ability to dispense with old allies and take on new ones shows that he is willing to work with anyone as long as it is within a framework he finds acceptable. This framework is most likely to be the "Mahinda Chintanaya" programme he placed before the people at the Presidential election of November 2005. There is a need to ensure that it is free of human rights violations, corruption and war.
Another major obstacle to a peace process that aims at a negotiated political settlement could be the technical and legal issue of a unitary state, which the Mahinda Chintanaya upholds and which Tamil opinion is unanimously opposed to. The political package being developed by the All Party Representatives Committee headed by Prof. Tissa Vitarana, has avoided using either the unitary or federal labels. Prof. Vitarana's proposals have been sharply criticized by Sinhalese nationalists, but they appear to have the international backing, particularly from the Indian government. Accordingly, a new peace process based on the concept of "peace with dignity" as spelled out in the Mahinda Chintanaya can yet become a reality.
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