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Japan's Prime Minister resigns: An analysis
Barrister Harun ur Rashid
On 12th September, Shinzo Abe (52), Prime Minister of Japan for a year, announced his resignation. It was sudden for many of his colleagues. Reportedly only one or two close senior ministers knew about it.
Only on 10th September, the Japanese Foreign Office informed the UN that the Prime Minister would not attend the UN Assembly in New York and also the Conference on Climate Change on 24th September.
It is reported that during their official visit to New Delhi in August, Abe's wife, Akie Abe, is believed to have joked with some Indian women that "we would like to invite you to visit us in the PM's office, if we are still there."
The resignation of the Prime Minister was in the speculation since his party lost the Upper House election in July and the Opposition party, Democratic Party of Japan, leads the majority at the Upper House. Such scenario has been a rarity for his Liberal Democratic Party. The opposition party pressed for a general election after Abe's party failed to win enough seats in the upper house of parliament.
Abe did not resign then nor did he call an early election. He asserted that he would remain Prime Minister to undertake necessary reforms for the progress and welfare of people. Even two days before his resignation, on 10th September, he made a "thundering" speech at the opening of the parliament saying that "I will give all my body and soul to fulfil the responsibilities of the prime minister."
27 PMs in 60 years
The resignation of Japanese Prime Ministers is nothing new. Except his distinguished predecessor Junichiro Koizumi who held the post for five years, no one perhaps was able to hold for that long.
The high office became a revolving door, one Prime Minister would resign and another would come. A few Prime Ministers survived only a few months. Since the Second World War, 27 different Prime Ministers governed the country. To put into a perspective, during the same period, Australia had only 11 Prime Ministers.
Ordinarily, the factions within the Liberal Democratic Party are so strong and have varied interests that few Japanese Ministers could satisfy the wishes of all and if one or two factions withdrew their support, the position became tenuous and the Prime Minister had no option but to resign.
Why did he resign?
Abe could have remained as Prime Minister, partly because no one from his party wanted the job in the current political circumstances. There are reasons for his resignation and some of them deserve mention as follows:
First, there was tremendous pressure on Prime Minister Abe from the US to renew the anti-terrorist special measures law. This law which expires on November 1, permits Japanese navy to refuel US and allied warships in the Indian Ocean, where they are stationed to interdict shipments suspected of being destined for the Islamic militants in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Opposition Leader Ichirio Ozawa, who has secured majority of seats in the Upper House told bluntly that his party would oppose the renewal of the law because it goes against the pacifist-spirit of the Constitution of Japan.
Earlier Abe assured that he "would not cling to the job" if the anti-terrorist law failed to pass. He knew that the law would not pass through the Upper House of Parliament. He had to resign because it would be a loss of face for Abe to President Bush.
Second, Abe has been physically unwell for some months. There were rumours about Abe's health, although the subject was mentioned very vaguely and traditionally Japanese men regard one's health as poor form and are particularly sensitive about stomach disorders, which apparently are widespread, from middle age. Furthermore Abe's father Shintaro Abe, a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, died suddenly in 1991 from pancreatic cancer.
On 13 September Abe was admitted to Keiko University Hospital. Doctors reportedly told that Abe was "extremely weak" and "suffering from a "functional gastro-intestinal disorder".
Third, Abe had no luck with Cabinet Ministers. During the span of a year four resigned under the charges of corruption or misuse of power and one committed suicide. Scandals after scandals plagued his ministers. The frequent change of Cabinet Ministers reflected Abe's poor governance and leadership.
Fourth and the last point was that Abe was more interested in foreign policy (big picture) rather than the nitty-gritty of domestic problems. It was Abe who signed a defence cooperation agreement with Australia that in turn has agreement on security with the US. He wanted to change the pacifist constitution of Japan.
During his time pension-data of elderly people went missing and people are enraged about it. He neglected other domestic issues, such as climate change and reforms in the financial sector.
Impact of resignation
Two countries will inevitably miss him. One is the US and other one is Australia. In Abe, both the leaders of the US and Australia found a "soul mate" in aligning Japanese foreign policy with them. During his visit to New Delhi in August, Abe discussed the merit of India's joining the US-Australia-Japan security alliance for strategic interests for Asia Pacific region. Essentially alliance is to contain the rise of China in the region, although they deny it. Abe took a lead in the matter, unlike Koizumi.
Domestically it would be a fight among factions of the ruling party but one thing is certain from media reports that whoever is chosen must be free from Abe's influence and ties.
Two strong contenders have emerge: Yasuo Fukuda, (son of a former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda) and head of the Machimura faction of the LDP party. He held the post as Chief Cabinet Secretary for a long time before Koizumi held the office of Prime Minister.
The other is Taro Aso, (grandson of former Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida), currently the out-spoken Foreign Minister and a hawk nationalist who wants to change the pacifist constitution of the country. His past statements on Japanese aggression on its neighbours annoyed both China and South Korea. He heads the Aso faction of the party.
It was the successful Prime Minister Koizumi who nominated Shinzo Abe into the high office. Earlier he was Koizumi's Chief Cabinet Secretary. Abe hails from a distinguished family. His father and maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, were Prime Ministers. He was six year old when he saw his grand father resigned.
Six months ago, Japan's new Prime Minister had President Bush as a close friend and during the first week of September at the APEC summit in Sydney, Abe, Bush and Australia's Prime Minister John Howard (all die hard conservatives) discussed about security matters in the Asia-Pacific given the rise of China. No one would have thought that within a few days, Abe would disappear from the political scene.
Political career is full of pitiless possibilities and nothing exposes the brutality of politics at the top than a leader's sudden fall.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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October Mission to space station for international partners
Cheryl Pellerin in Washington
During its October flight, Discovery's commander will be Pamela Melroy, a veteran shuttle pilot and the second woman to command a shuttle.
In October-the month that marks the 50th anniversary of the launch of the first artificial satellite, Sputnik (sent by Russia, now defunct Soviet Union) and the space age-space shuttle Discovery and its crew will begin a 13-day journey to the International Space Station.
The mission, STS-120, is scheduled for launch October 23 to continue construction of the orbital outpost, adding a U.S. module called Harmony, or Node 2, that will serve as a port for installing more international laboratories.
"In the early days of the 'space race,' as we called it then," Space Shuttle Program Manager Wayne Hale said during a September 14 NASA briefing from the Johnson Space Center in Houston, "it was a competition between the great nations of the world."
Today, he added, "we are in cooperation with many international partners, including many of our former rivals and other allied nations, in a great expedition to build and complete construction of the first permanent outpost in space."
Hale congratulated Japan and its Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency on the September 14 launch of their lunar orbit explorer Kaguya. One hundred kilometers above the moon, the orbiter will pass over both poles during its yearlong mission, while its two small satellites execute different elliptical orbits.
"It is a great step forward in the exploration of space," Hale said.
Built in Italy for the United States, Harmony is a high-tech hallway and industrial hub. It is a 7-meter-by-4-meter passageway that will connect the U.S. segment of the station to the European Columbus Laboratory in December and to the Kibo Japanese Experiment Module in January or February 2008.
Harmony is the "gateway to the international partners," said Derek Hassman, lead station flight director, and "the final piece of the US portion of the space station that allows us to start including the international partner modules in the overall architecture."
During its October flight, Discovery's commander will be Pamela Melroy, a veteran shuttle pilot and the second woman to command a shuttle. US Marine Corps Colonel George Zamka will pilot the shuttle. Mission specialists are Scott Parazynski, US Army Colonel Douglas Wheelock, Stephanie Wilson, and Paolo Nespoli, a European Space Agency astronaut from Italy. The flight also will carry space station crew member Daniel Tani.
Tani will stay aboard the station for several months and return on Atlantis in December with the STS-122 crew. Current station Flight Engineer Clayton Anderson will return to Earth aboard Discovery.
The 13-day mission could be extended by one day and a spacewalk, said Hale, who recommended the extension to give the crew time to practice on-orbit repairs of the shuttle's heat-shield tiles, part of the craft's thermal protection system.
Two tiles on the underside of the orbiter were damaged by foam debris that broke loose during the August 8 launch of Endeavour, but engineering analysis and test data showed that the tiles did not need repair.
Shuttle and space station managers will make a joint decision about the extension September 17.
The insulating foam debris came from the liquid oxygen feed-line brackets on the outside of the external tank, and the problem was fixed, Hale said, but foam loss on ascent to orbit is inherent in the external tank design.
"We will lose foam off the external tank to the very last flight," he added. "However, we are working on each of those areas so that we are mitigating the hazard, and the last tank we fly will be the safest tank we ever fly."
NASA and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) signed an agreement September 12 that will help American scientists use the space station to answer questions about human health and diseases.
Congress designated the U.S. segment of the space station a national laboratory in May, opening the station to partnerships with other government agencies and private companies to conduct research aboard the station.
"The station provides a unique environment," NIH Director Elias Zerhouni said in a September 12 statement, "where researchers can explore fundamental questions about human health issues-including how the human body heals itself, fights infection or develops diseases such as cancer or osteoporosis."
Since the start of the space program, for example, researchers have known that long periods of weightlessness cause bones and muscles to deteriorate. On the station, scientists can study the molecular basis of these effects for the eventual benefit of people who suffer from weak, fragile bones or muscle-wasting diseases.
Microgravity also affects other biologic systems in people and other organisms. An explanation for observed changes in microbe infectivity and human immunity during prolonged space travel could offer new hope to people who have difficulty fighting infections on Earth
- SAN-Feature Service
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It's good to be the boss in US
America: Awful employer-employee gap
Daniel Luban in Washington
James Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies, a private investment firm, earned 1.5 billion dollars in 2006. The pay gap between workers and employers in the U.S. remains enormous, with the typical chief executive officer (CEO) of a top firm earning more in a single workday than the average U.S. worker takes home in an entire year, according to a new study on executive compensation released Wednesday.
Not only do top CEOS receive a total income that is about 364 times that of the average worker, their earnings also far outstrip those of government leaders, nonprofit executives, and even their European counterparts, the study found.
These findings come as politicians in the U.S. and Europe increasingly debate CEO pay, an issue that for many has come to exemplify the pitfalls of an economy that has produced impressive growth while seemingly failing to improve the fortunes of the bulk of the population.
The study, which was released by the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) and United for a Fair Economy (UFE) to coincide with the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., found that CEOs of the 500 largest U.S. companies earned an average of 10.8 million dollars in total compensation in 2006, and the CEOs of the 20 largest companies earned an average of 36.4 million dollars.
By comparison, the average worker in the U.S. earned 29,544 dollars in the same time period.
The 36.4 million dollars earned by the top 20 U.S. CEOS also far exceeded the average earnings of the 20 highest-paid European CEOs (12.5 million dollars), U.S. non-profit leaders (965,698 dollars), members of the U.S. executive branch of government (198,369 dollars), and generals in the U.S. military (178,542 dollars).
Sarah Anderson of the Institute for Policy Studies, the lead author of the study, said that the vast pay gap between the top private-sector and public-sector jobs creates serious problems for the country.
"First of all, [the lower compensation] is a serious disincentive to take government and not-for-profit jobs, and thus drains leadership talent out of the not-for-profit world," she told IPS. "Second, it contributes to a 'revolving door' between government and the private sector" as policymakers often opt for more lucrative business and lobbying jobs.
But being the CEO of a large company is not the most lucrative job in United States, the study found. That honour went to the managers of the country's top hedge funds, which are exclusive investment groups that operate in a largely unregulated environment.
The average income of the 20 top-earning hedge fund and private equity managers was 655.5 million dollars in 2006, the study found. Four such managers earned over 1 billion dollars in the last year alone.
Although recent changes to the rules for reporting income make it difficult to precisely compare this year's CEO-worker wage gap to previous years, Anderson said that the trends had not changed significantly.
"We certainly haven't seen any real retreat on CEO pay," she said. "Even companies that are heading towards crisis are continuing to pay huge sums."
This year's 364-to-1 CEO-to-worker pay gap remains a massive increase from previous decades: in 1990, the rate was 107-to-1, and in 1980, it was only 40-1, according to the study.
The findings about CEO pay come in the context of a larger debate over growing income inequality in the U.S.
Defenders of the George W. Bush administration's economic policies point to robust levels of growth in recent years, while critics contend that most if not all of the gains have gone to the richest citizens.
Research published by the economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty earlier this year showed that the wealthiest U.S. citizens have increased their share of national income to levels unseen since the 1920s. The top 10 percent now account for 48.5 percent of income, and the top one percent for 21.8 percent of income.
And although the total reported income in the U.S. increased by almost 9 percent in 2005, Saez and Piketty found that the incomes of those in the bottom 90 percent of earners actually decreased slightly that year.
The CEO-worker wage gap has become a potent representation of this increased income inequality, and U.S. politicians have seized upon the issue as the 2008 presidential campaign gets underway.
Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards, the three leading candidates for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, have all called for increased scrutiny on CEO pay.
Obama is sponsoring so-called "say on pay" legislation in the Senate, which would let corporate shareholders hold nonbinding advisory votes about executive compensation plans. The legislation has already passed in the House of Representatives, although President Bush has expressed his disapproval of the bill and may veto it if it passes in the Senate.
Other Democrats have also proposed legislation on the issue. A bill introduced by Representative Barbara Lee, a Democrat from California, would limit how much executive pay companies can claim as tax-deductible, and a bill introduced by Sander Levin, a Democrat from Michigan, would tax the earnings of hedge fund managers at the rate for income (currently 35 percent) rather than the rate for capital gains (currently 15 percent).
The increase scrutiny of CEO pay has not been limited to the U.S., as European leaders have also focused on the issue - although, as the IPS/UFE study documents, the earnings of European CEOs are relatively small compared to their U.S. counterparts.
Even French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is known as a relative fiscal conservative, has pledged to pass a law limiting the severance packages of top executives.
"It is fascinating that we suddenly have this unprecedented debate about CEO pay in both the U.S. and Europe," said Anderson, the author of the study. "It may be a sign that our political leaders are finally catching up to where the public has been for quite a while on these issues."
- Inter Press Service
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Greenspan's memoirs allege
'Iraq war is largely about oil'
AFP in Washington
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, for years an inscrutable seer on the economy, is causing a stir by alleging in his new memoir that 'the Iraq war is largely about oil.'
Greenspan, who as head of the US central bank was famous for his tight-lipped reserve, is uncharacteristically direct in 'The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,' also accusing President George W. Bush of abandoning Republican principles on the economy.
'I'm saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows - the Iraq war is largely about oil,' he wrote in reported excerpts of the book, which was released last Monday.
Greenspan's memoirs appear a year and a half after he left the Fed, with the US economy at a crossroads, and ahead of a critical central bank meeting under the chairmanship of his successor, Ben Bernanke.
The man dubbed 'the Oracle' tells his own tale of nearly two decades at the helm of one of the world's most powerful financial institutions - including surprising swipes at the Bush administration.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, while explaining his 'respect' for Greenspan, rejected the charge that a thirst for crude explained the decision to invade Iraq in March 2003.
'I know the same allegation was made about the Gulf War in 1991, and I just don't believe it's true,' he said on ABC television last Sunday.
'I think that it's really about stability in the Gulf. It's about rogue regimes trying to develop weapons of mass destruction,' he said.
Greenspan, a lifelong Republican, writes that he advised the White House to veto some bills to curb 'out-of-control' spending while the Republicans controlled Congress.
According to The Wall Street Journal, he says that Bush's failure to do so 'was a major mistake.' Republicans in Congress, he writes, 'swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither.'
'They deserved to lose' in the 2006 elections, when the Democrats retook control of Congress.
The 81-year-old Greenspan puts his own spin on the events surrounding the 1987 stock market crash, the bursting of the Internet bubble and the 2001 recession coinciding with the September 11 terror strikes.
In a blog on the online bookstore Amazon.com, Greenspan says he will share details of his childhood in New York, his years as a jazz musician and his friendship with US presidents.
'After years of talking 'Fedspeak' in carefully calibrated congressional testimony, I could finally use my own voice,' Green says with uncharacteristic verve.
'I tackled the personal part first, but then started unraveling the detective story about the economy,' Greenspan adds in his blog. 'What did all the economic shifts we began to detect in the late 90s mean?'
His memoirs are being published at a time when as the institution he led for so many years holds its most anticipated meeting in years. Investors around the world would be closely watching the Fed for some sign that might help counter the affects of a US mortgage crisis that has rattled markets and led to a squeeze.
Greenspan is increasingly being blamed by some for the crisis. By keeping interest rates so low for so long, some argue, he helped foster the real estate bubble behind much of the current woes. The former Fed chief defended himself in an interview with CBS television, portions of which were released Thursday last.
'They are mistaken,' Greenspan said of his critics. 'It was our job to unfreeze the American banking system if we wanted the economy to function. This required that we keep rates modestly low.'
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NEWS NOTES FROM NEW YORK
UN and WB to retrieve stolen money
In different countries of the world reputation of politicians were badly mauled due to corruption, bid-rigging, shoddy deals and abuse of power; and the figure is staggering -- as much as $40 billion are stolen yearly.
Now the United Nations and the World Bank have pledged to retrieve the money stolen from developing nations by corrupt leaders and businessmen. There should be no safe haven for those who steal from the poor, the New York Times quoted Robert Zoellick, WB president, as saying while unveiling the plan with UN secretary general Ban ki Moon.
The overall cross-border flow of global proceeds from criminal activities, corruption and tax evasion run to $ 1 trillion to to $ 1.6 trillion WB president Zoellick said. A portion of money retrieved, say $100 million, could be utilised for immunisation of four million children, water connections to 250,000 households or finance 600,000 people with HIV.
The UN and WB will assist countries like Bangladesh in devoting recovered money to proper development use 'to make sure it is not stolen twice'. The system that is being evolved will help the countries to track stolen money.
Bangladeshi to head a
new centre at the MIT
Iqbal Quadir, one of the founders of the Grameen Phone, will be the executive director of a newly created centre at the prestigious MIT. Legatum, a Dubai-based company, has pledged to provide $50 million to create the centre. The centre will train about 40 students a year from developing countries to improve the professional and entrepreneurial skills of the business executives and financiers who can help start ventures in their homelands.
Taiwan wants UN membership
Taiwan, like Israel, occupies a special place in US foreign policy. The United States does not approve of the one China concept though Beijing is the biggest trading partner of America. UNforTaiwan, a non-profit organisation, in a quarter page advertisement in the NYT, rejected UN resolution 2758 that says Taiwan is part of China. The ad said the secretary general's statement is a dangerous encroachment on US commitment to Taiwan's security. The ad says the UN must live up to the basic principles of human rights, democracy and self-determination that are the basis of the establishment of the UN. Majority of members, of the UN, China and Russia both Security Council members believe in one China policy and will never permit Taiwan to become a UN member.
Meanwhile the US has agreed to sell submarine hunting aircraft and air defence missiles to Taiwan. The deal will be worth $2.23 billion.
Crude oil price reaches record high
The OPEC's decision to extract 500,000 additional barrel of oil to offset the volatility of the oil market has apparently made no difference. The oil price instead of coming down has soared to record high of $80 barrel. It is bad news for Bangladesh.
The hike in oil price has been four-fold since 2000 largely due to thirst for oil in China and declining output in Venezuela and Mexico and sharp fall in supply from Middle-East and Africa. The dollar fell to a new low against euro and oil price surged to a record high of $80 a barrel pointing to a weaker American economy. The weak American economy will be accompanied by higher prices of energy and other imported goods.
European Court condemns Microsoft
The 13-member European Court reaffirmed that Microsoft had abused its market power by adding a digital media player to Windows, undercutting Real Networks. The court upheld the record fine levelled against the company. Microsoft will pay a fine of $689.4 million.
Flawed justice
President Bush has suspended the provision of the writ of habeas corpus for foreigners. The law created a separate, substandard and clearly unconstitutional system of trial and punishment for foreigners, NYT said. The suspension of the habeas corpus is in contravention of the ancient principle that no governing power may lock people without the chance of a hearing in a court of law. Protection from arbitrary arrest, embedded in the Magna Carta and the Constitution of America is one of the most powerful weapons against tyranny in democracy's arsenal. Only one other US president Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus during civil war, the NYT said.
Tailpiece
It will be rewarding if any of erudite Holiday readers could answer these questions (1) When did Rabindranath's songs came to be known as Rabindrasangeet (2) When did Nazrul's songs came to be known as Nazrulgeeti (3) Who penned this famous Bangla couplet Ei deshey amon cheley janmo nebe kobey jhe kathay bode na hoye kaje bodo hobe.
The English translation by this scribe will be like this: When will this nation be blessed by a son, who will not be a tall talker but will be tall in his deeds.
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Ethnic conflict
Sri Lanka's opposition should educate people
Jehan Perera in Colombo
A possible alliance between the main opposition party, the UNP, and the main anti-establishment party, the JVP, could be decisive in determining the future of the country. The JVP has stated that they are willing to consider an alliance with the UNP provided the latter changes some of its policies. Undoubtedly the UNP will be expecting a similar accommodation by the JVP, though this remains unsaid at the present time. The main areas on which accommodation are likely to be sought would be with regard to the impact of economic policies on the poorer segments of the population and on the ethnic conflict and its solution.
There is little reason to doubt that former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, who was the bridge builder between the SLFP and JVP in the recent past has played a key role in bridging the vast gap of policy and mistrust that seemed to exist between the UNP and JVP. So far the recent alliance between the UNP and the breakaway faction of the ruling party, the SLFP (M) headed by Mr Samaraweera appears to be going from strength to strength. But there remains a major lacuna that could haunt the new alliance if ever it forms the government, as it surely intends to. This problem would arise when it seeks to address the ethnic conflict.
Govt. strategy
The government's present strategy is to deal with the LTTE militarily while seeking to develop a political solution in an "All Party Conference" without the participation of the largest Tamil parliamentary party, the TNA, let alone the LTTE. President Rajapaksa has emerged as a strongman in this context, challenging the opposition not to be cowards. In a recent speech at a mass rally, he is reported to have said "We do not have people with wavering minds and cowards, and we are not afraid as long as we have people who love the motherland." The President is also reported to have said that a final political solution for the decades' long problem would be found by the end of next month and his government would not permit terrorism.
The outcome of this discussion in the public sphere regarding the ethnic conflict and its solution is not surprising. It is inevitable that the thinking of the general population will get slanted towards the view that they find most powerfully presented in the mass media. A recent public opinion survey carried out by the Marga Institute in collaboration with the National Peace Council showed that as many as 84 percent of those polled agreed with the government's strategy of confronting the LTTE militarily and seeking to take back the territory controlled by the LTTE. This figure can be attributed to the lack of belief in the LTTE's willingness to ever give up the goal of a separate country of Tamil Eelam, which was the view of 77 percent of those polled.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka's consumer price index eased slightly due mainly to the decline in the price of some essential commodities including food and vegetables. Sri Lanka's Central Bank said last month it expected inflation to ease to single-digit levels by year-end.
The new alliance has organised several mass rallies in a show of strength in the relatively short period since its formation. These rallies have educated the people on matters of public interest. The themes of agitation have been the popular issues connected to the sharp rise in prices of essential commodities that have dented the people's support for the government, and the corruption and abuse of power that is alleged to permeate the government from top to bottom. Even the JVP which has refused to join the new alliance is campaigning on these same populist issues on which anyone can agree.
Ethnic conflict
Unfortunately, where the most important issue that impacts most negatively on the country is concerned, which is the ethnic conflict, none of these opposition parties has yet taken a forthright stand. The JVP continues to stick to its old position that ethnic-based devolution of power is neither necessary nor desirable. The problem with the JVP's gloss about being a party of universal and non-ethnic based values is that its voter base is exclusively Sinhalese and its positions reflect narrow Sinhalese nationalism. They claim to uphold universal values, and on the occasion of the government's eviction of Tamil residents from Colombo they opposed the government. But have been insufficiently sensitive to the human rights violations that accrue to the Tamil people in the north and east as a result of the war.
The more liberal and cosmopolitan UNP has also fallen short on the issue of the ethnic conflict and its solution. While the UNP has made a proposal regarding its position on a political solution to the All Party Conference that was summoned by President Mahinda Rajapaksa to find a mutually acceptable solution to the ethnic conflict, the UNP has not made a serious effort to educate the general public on its specific stand. The UNP appears to believe that if it makes its position clear, it will be subjected to attack by the government and its nationalist allies, so it prefers to leave a vacuum that others can fill. UNP members have even said that civil society and NGOs should be in the front lines regarding educating the general public, while they remain in the background.
NGO, civil society
The problem is that civil society and NGO groups do not have the coverage that political parties get when it comes to reaching the masses of people through the media. While civil society groups can voice their opinions, it is the politicians who take decisions that are converted into actions and who get the coverage of the media. As a result of the lack of contribution by the opposition political parties to the public discussion on the ethnic conflict and its solution, the opportunity is left wide open for the government and its nationalist allies to dominate the public space on this issue. The government can and does monopolise the state media without permitting dissenting views to be heard.
However, it is also possible that the high proportion of people who accept the government's current strategy do so only because they have been shown no alternative to the government's strategy which almost all people consider to be very costly. It is no cause for surprise that more than 99 percent of those polled wanted the war to end as soon as possible and conditions of normalcy restored. The people are fully aware of the costs of the war, and negative manner in which it impacts upon their well being and the well being of the country as a whole. Furthermore, even though 84 percent were in favour of the government's military strategy against the LTTE, that same group and others, amounting to an even greater number of 89 percent felt that a military solution would not bring peace and normalcy to the country as the LTTE would continue as a disruptive guerilla force.
LTTE's goal
As the survey makes clear, most respondents (77 per cent) have little or no faith in the LTTE's willingness to give up their goal of an independent state of Tamil Eelam and enter into the democratic mainstream. In these circumstances the people see no other option than for the government to contain the LTTE militarily. But if it is possible to change this perception, there will be public support once again for a peace process that has a negotiated political settlement as its objective. This conclusion is supported by the fact that 72 percent of the respondents believe that a realistic solution, and one that lasting and peaceful, can only come through a negotiated political solution into which the LTTE is incorporated.
The challenge for the opposition, and this includes the LTTE, is to find ways to educate and reassure the people that a negotiated political solution that keeps the country united is possible in Sri Lanka, as it has been possible elsewhere in the world. This is what civil society and NGOs are doing today but on a relatively small scale with the problems of restricted reach and lack of large scale access to the media.
Specifically, the opposition political parties need to educate the people about the peace processes in other parts of the world, such as in Indonesia (Aceh), India (Nagaland, Assam), Bangladesh (Chittagong) and UK (Northern Ireland). The common feature in all these peace processes is that there were repeatedly negotiated ceasefires that collapsed, but finally there was one that held. Another common feature is that the governments had to deal with the main rebel group, and give up trying to fashion agreements with the others.
The opposition needs to take messages of the possibility of peace through nonviolent means to the masses of people in order to turn them away from reliance on the present reality of war and government spokespersons who speak of the necessity of more war for the next 2-3 years.
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ISLAMABAD DIARY
Jonaid Iqbal
In the good old days Pakistan was at the top in five world games: cricket, hockey, polo, and squash.
The names of A. H. Kardar, Fazal Mahmud, Hanif, Hashim Khan, Imran Khan and Jahangir Khan conjures up dreams of who could be better than these charismatic players that had brought so much glory and world attention for their country.
Unfortunately, since the last decade Pakistan has been losing in every game department -- but it has gone down without giving a fight, as if the urge to reach the top was absent from its players. At one time we won the cricket world cup -- last year due to our failures we could not even make it as a playing side.
We were also won Olympic gold in international hockey, but in the latest Olympic Games we came out sixth.
Lack of discipline, corruption (fixed games circuit) has been plaguing our entry in international competition. An attempt has been made to curb the lust for money by giving handsome remuneration and windfall money to cricketers. And some discipline has also been maintained a la Shoaib Akhtar, who was taken out of the play circuit for hitting a colleague.
Good news, now. Pakistan cricket is up again like the old times. Its competitiveness as a bold team which can dare has been tested in a number of recent Twenty20 Super Eights match 20/20 contest matches in South Africa.
Unbelievable, last Tuesday night Pakistan team defeated the so long unbeatable Australians, after proving over their mettle over Sri Lankan team Monday night. Captain Shoaib Malik and Misbah-ul-Haq put on a century partnership as Pakistan stunned Australia by six wickets on Tuesday.
The pair put on 119 off 78 balls for the unbroken fifth wicket to help their team recover from 46-4 and surpass Australia's 164-7 with five balls to spare.
This victory is praiseworthy because the team is doing well without Shoaib, the Rawalpindi Express, who thinks himself unexpendable.
Shoaib, notorious for lack of discipline, also always showed fits and tantrums. This time, however he overdid it by hitting teammate and another ace bowler, Asif, on the legs. The duo had tested positive for dope last year and the PCB did their best to have them rehabilitated in the team, but that was no help because the Pakistan team was trundled out, and did not even qualify for the super eight.
Pakistan would play India next, in India, for which the wicket keeper Mahandra Singh Dhoni has named India's, captain, but some critics are of the view that in Dravid they had a captain who put fear in the opposing side. They think that Dravid should have been retained as captain.
As usual there is a lot of frustration to be witnessed in Pakistan Hockey Federation (PHF), which had lost quite a few international events and is now warming up to face a number of competitions in the champions trophy matches which would be held outside the country (India and Malaysia) this time.
President of PHF, and former Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, stated the reasons for the setback of the national team, in the following words: lack of cash, lack of play grounds and lack of opportunities.
Jamali seems to think that national hockey players of Pakistan are neglected and denied many opportunities. They should be well employed by government and private companies.
Jamali said he could turn Pakistan hockey for the better if the government made a donation of Rs. 100 million to the Hockey Federation.
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Greenspan's memoirs allege
'Iraq war is largely about oil'
AFP in Washington
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, for years an inscrutable seer on the economy, is causing a stir by alleging in his new memoir that 'the Iraq war is largely about oil.'
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