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Destination of Khaleda
and Hasina unknown

Samsuddin Ahmed

Chain of destiny are taking Awami League President Sheikh Hasina where she herself is not certain. Everything is set for her leaving the country tonight (Friday, June 15) for the USA, ostensibly to be with her daughter who is expecting her third baby shortly. But, "I'm not sure if the government will permit me to leave the country," she told reporters on Wednesday.
   On return from Tungipara, the AL chief found in her dismay two extortion cases filed against her the same afternoon. Unique Group accused her of taking Tk 3.20 crore by extortion when she was prime minister for approving three small power plant projects. Her cousin Sheikh Helal and his wife Rupa Chowdhury were also accused in the case. East Coast Trading accused Hasina and another of her cousins, Sheikh Selim, of taking Tk 2.99 crore for awarding the contract for installing and commissioning Siddhirganj power plant.
   In all probability the police will take the cases to the court and get summons issued directing Hasina to appear before the court. That may upset her travel schedule.
   The cases came hot on the heals of startling information reportedly revealed by former MP Sheikh Selim and AL joint general secretary Obaidul Kader, both close aides to her. They have told the Taskforce Intelligence of underhand deals by which Hasina accumulated ill-gained money in billions. Informed sources said more corruption cases against her were in the offing. This will undoubtedly cut her political head deeply.
   Hasina is quite aware of the 'minus two' move against her within Awami League and Khaleda Zia within BNP. She smelt a rat in the move and termed it 'mysterious'. Suranjit Sen Gupta is one among the many who are openly challenging her leadership and favouring her exit from the party to pave the way for reforms. Equally in BNP, Lt Gen (Rtd) Mahbubur Rahman has openly talked about sidelining the discredited Khaleda from the party. The myths that AL means Hasina and BNP means Khaleda have gone with the winds of change.
   The reported disclosure made by Mosaddeq Ali Falu, the most trusted and closest aide to Khaleda, to the Taskforce Intelligence tantamount to character assassination. This may have had a nerve-breaking effect on Khaleda and her family.
   
   RAW connection
   What is disquieting for the people is admission of AL leaders of their link with the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the Indian intelligence network, which reported was involved in the assassinations of President Ziaur Rahman and King Birendra of Nepal and the birth of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka.
   Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai "was appalled to see the plan for assassination of Ziaur Rahman," reported Indian weekly The Sun in its special issue, 'Spying is the second oldest profession', in 1987 or 88 (prostitution is the oldest profession).
   This correspondent was told in Kathmandu that King Birendra was killed along with his family members within a few days of his signing an agreement with China for construction of a road that would bring the two countries closer. And it is no secret that LTTE chief Provakaran is the product of the RAW that provided training and logistic support to launch the secessionist war in Sri Lanka. It is understandable why India was perturbed and strongly opposed to the recent move of Sri Lanka to procure arms from Pakistan and China.
   The reported close link between AL and RAW is ominous. Obaidul Kader frankly admitted to the Taskforce Intelligence this week that Hasina used to maintain close link with Sinha, RAW station chief in Dhaka, during the BNP-Jamaat coalition government. He said Miraj, who has replaced Sinha, has also been keeping close liaison and occasionally meeting with the key AL leaders including Abdul Jalil.
   Corroborating Obaidul Karim's statement about the close connection between AL and RAW, Sheikh Selim admitted that Awami League was involved in the arson attack to a BRTC double-decker near Hotel Sheraton in 2004, which saw 11 passengers burnt to death, and also in triggering unrest in the garment sector in May last year.

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Civil society living in ivory towers

New party shall require
grassroots support

M Anwarul Kabir

Poor governance by the two major parties since the fall of autocratic regime in 1990 has instilled in the mind of some members of the civil society the quest for a 'third force' with a view to introducing good governance in the country. The civil society under the umbrella of CPD and a section of the media have been campaigning for honest and efficient candidates for the national election since 2006.
   In the present changed political setup of the country some of the overambitious members of the civil society are trying to influence the army-backed interim government to assist in floating a new party bypassing the traditional parties, especially AL and BNP.
   Professor Dr Muhammad Yunus intended to float a new political party named Nagorik Shakti which was like a ray of hope among many members of the civil society. However, assessing the ground realities the Nobel Laureate's decision of stepping back from his political venture has thrown this section of the civil society into despair.
   
   Pakistani model
   Another setback that has blown the psyche of the aspirants of formation of a new party is the abortive attempts to implement the "minus two theory" on the basis of the Pakistani model. It has been implicitly understood that the "minus two theory", in other words, sending two apex leaders of the two major parties, namely BNP and AL, into exile was a secret proposition of the aspirants of a new party.
   However, the efforts of formation of a new party is underway as declared by Ferdous Ahmed Koreshi, one of the organisers of the BNP. Koreshi is working as a coordinator to float the party. It has been also speculated that since Prof. Yunus made an exit, eminent lawyer Dr. Kamal Hossian may be the chief of the proposed new party. The other major leaders will be taken from the BNP and AL who have relatively 'clean' images. In this context, so far, names of Mannan Bhuyan, Sadek Hossain Khoka, Saifur Rahman, Tofail Ahmed, Abdur Razzak and some others have been heard.
   The question arises whether these people are cleared by the ACC as really clean or not. However, to the common people the above stated political leaders during their stay in power were also heard to be otherwise. Their possible joining in the new party is not in conformity with the Government's discriminatory stance in its anti-corruption drive. Although there are allegations of involvement in corruption against these leaders yet the Government has not nabbed them like other alleged corrupt leaders. Cannot it be considered as double standard on the part of the government?
   Now the question is how far the aspirants of a new party will succeed? Forming a new political party sitting at the power centre is not unique in Bangladesh as we observe the cases of BNP and Jatiya Party. But unlike those cases this time political scenario is different.
   
   BAKSAL vacuum
   General Ziaur Rahman, when initiated his party BNP in 1978, was at the power centre as the Army Chief as well as chief executive of the country. At that time there existed a total vacuum in the political arena of the country. All the political parties in 1975 were banned and absorbed into a newly introduced party, BAKSAL, based on the Soviet model. The rules of BAKSAL required all other parties including various services and forces to join it. Many restrictive regulations coming from the BAKSAL included the promulgation of the Newspaper Ordinance (June 1975) under which all but four Government-owned newspapers were banned. Under the BAKSAL system of one-party rule, much damage was done to the constitutional provisions relating to the independence of both the higher and the subordinate Judiciary.
   But ironically, when Zia reintroduced the multi-party democratic system, the central leadership of the then defunct Awami League was in a severe crisis due to the tragic killings of Sheikh Mujib and other major leaders of the then AL.
   In forming the new party Zia was able to use this leadership vacuum prudently at the national level. By dint of his personal charisma, dynamism and financial honesty as well as utilisation of different government organs including civil administration and armed forces, Zia could successfully give birth to a new political party: BNP. However, the formation of BNP had not been done overnight; at first it was Bangladesh Nationalist Front; and it took over two years to be a full-fledged political party --- BNP.
   
   Ershad's coup
   After Zia's tragic demise in 1981, the then Army Chief Lt. Gen. Ershad usurped authority and overthrew Pesident Sattar's democratically elected government through a coup and captured the state power. Sitting at the power centre he initiated his Jatiya Pary but for this he had also to go a long way.
   Lt. Gen. Ershad had no charisma like President Ziaur Rahman, but he formed his party by means of his shrewdness and collaboration of some of his Army colleagues and Government machinery. However, his party could not get popular mass support and so to install his party at the power centre he destroyed the electoral process entirely and introduced the concept of 'vote robbery' in Bangladesh.
   However, one common feature is that both BNP and JP were born in the period of martial law under the leadership of the key person of the martial law administration. But this time emergence of a new party with the intention of winning the election may not be that easy.
   
   Popularity is crucial
   In essence, it may be stated that success of a political party necessitates popular support from the grassroots level. While both BNP and AL are passing through a hard time, but both the parties have hardcore supporters at the grassroots level.
   There is an uncertainty whether Dr. Kamal Hossain at this stage would be able to turn himself as a powerful contestant of either of the two top leaders. However, the proposed new party will perhaps largely rely on the members of the civil society.
   On the other hand, despite their failings and faults as traditional political parties both AL and BNP have been working with the people for a long time. It is true that the civil society has some idealistic doctrines, but the reality is that they assess the situation keeping a distance from the common people. To make a political party popular, wide participation of the common people must be ensured.
   The author is a freelance writer, working at AIUB.

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Budget deemed a document of courage

Sadeq Khan

Those disturbed by a feeling of drift of the ship of the state under an extended caretaker regime have been gratified by the grip of the finance adviser over economic realities facing the nation as reflected in the proposed budget for fiscal year 2007-08. Indeed, the hefty budget, characterised as "overambitious" by some leaders of opinion, civil society stalwarts and economist association elders, is a pleasant surprise to the average citizen who is depressed by the daily revelations of political scandals in newspapers.
   The anti-corruption drive of the task forces has caught some "big fish" in the net. The detained bigwigs are washing their dirty linen under interrogation, and the public is aghast with shock and shame. The exposure of the extent of high-level corruption, tyrannical acts, murderous practices, massive misappropriation and other sins committed by the ruling elite and their crony capitalist followers and hatchet men has been too staggering for many to bear.
   The budget declaration came both as a relief and an assurance that all is not lost. Combined with it, came clear announcements by the chief adviser, the army chief and the chief election commissioner that the Election Commission and the caretaker administration are set on course to hold general elections within the time-frame of the year 2008 and transfer power to the elected representatives of the people. The finance adviser has earned the thanks of many a down-hearted citizen, not because he performed any miracle but because in a simple and straight forward manner he was able to convey a message of hope to the people, without hiding the pitfalls. He has also been able to communicate a sense of modest self-confidence of the caretaker government team, which is necessary, if not sufficient.
   To the common consumer under stress, the budget proposals may not have meant much, but the finance adviser by his budget speech and press briefings did sound like a messiah who may show the way to better days. His poise has been taken to reflect the courage of the government in facing realities and preventing matters from going out of hand.
   The sceptics, the economists and the civil society stalwarts were not impressed. "I could have done it better" was the underlying inaudible refrain of many pundits. For instance, the Centre for Policy Dialogue nominally appreciated the caretaker government's "efforts to improve transparency in budget accounting," but found the proposed budget a "residue" of old practices of setting huge goals without effective mechanism to implement relevant policies in the budget.
   The 2007-08 budget has sought "to break with the past but without making a breakthrough," excepting in steps such as shouldering the liabilities of Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to establish fiscal discipline, CPD observed.
   "It's a budget of legacy. And the country's financial structure remains still vulnerable," was the CPD verdict.
   Public expenditure growth has been set at 28.8 per cent and the revenue earning growth target at much lower 15.8 per cent in the proposed budget.
   'We do not believe that the government machinery centring Dhaka will be able to spend the huge amount and thus bring optimum results for the people.'
   The CPD also pointed to what it called "the marginalisation of development expenditure" as the new Annual Development Programme accounts for only 30.4 per cent of the total public expenditure.
   A veteran news-analyst, Achintya Sen, on the other hand, has made a more sympathetic assessment of the budget proposals. But he started with a stricture: "It is not a resource-based budget. Its weakness is that it first estimates the expenditure in the next year and then goes for how to mobilise the funds for implementing the budget."
   One may ask: Is it not the way all budgets are worked out? The concern could be whether all relevant demands for state expenditure, including those of social investment and public welfare, have been taken into account within the constraints of available resources. To make an assessment of measures in the budget in this regard, let me quote Achintya Sen again, who writes: "A series of measures have been proposed to keep the prices of the essential commodities within the reach of common people.
   "...import duty on edible oil and lentil has been abolished; simultaneously, the earlier announced abolition of duty on rice, wheat, onion, motordal, chhola will remain in force.
   "The marginal people who have lost capacity to buy essential commodities for price hike will be given opportunity to extended vulnerable group feeding programme for the next fiscal year. To support the VGF card holders for eight months, four lakh tonnes of rice have been allocated under this head. Side by side, under the projects of test relief, gratuitous relief, food for work and vulnerable group development, six lakh tonnes of food grains will be distributed.
   "In addition to this, open market sale of foodstuff will be effected. The government, side by side with the private sector, has planned to import eight lakh tonnes of food grains from the international market.
   "The finance adviser, AB Mirza Azizul Islam, says in his budget speech that some more items will be imported by the government along with the private sector. The import of rice and wheat will be doubled.
   "The government has expanded the existing social protection and safety net programmes for poor, women, children and vulnerable groups such as elderly and disabled people, both in terms of coverage and the number of beneficiaries."
   Achintya Sen then quotes the finance adviser as saying that "We will strengthen dal-bhat [rice-lentil] programme under implementation by the Bangladesh Rifles to mitigate the sufferings of general consumers, particularly the poor.
   "In the budget speech, the adviser has also said, 'I propose to allocate Tk 550 crore for employment generation in rural areas outside the ministry-based employment generation programme in the next fiscal year.'
   Sen comments that "we are deficit in all foodstuff or agri-products including staples. This year country's deficit in rice is as high as 30 lakh tonnes.
   "There has been a late awakening for the government about the food deficit."
   He then goes on to quote the adviser again as saying, "I propose an endowment allocation of Tk 350 crore for agricultural research and development.
   "The government is committed to subsidise the extra cost that the farmers will have to bear on account of diesel price hike. Payment against this subsidy will only be made to cardholder farmers. In the budget for FY2007-08, I propose an allocation of Tk 750 crore."
   Sen also notes that "An allocation of Tk 1,500 crore has been made as subsidy to fertiliser sub-section in the budget."
   With regard to the power sector, he points out that the proposed budget for the next year allocates Tk 3,832 crore, about 4.38 per cent of the entire budget outlay. Power generation has been planned to increase over the next three years by 345MW in the first year, 900MW in the second and 500MW in the third.
   "The World Bank has committed emergency budgetary support for the power sector development as it believes the caretaker government needs to be on a war footing to cut down the massive power shortage plaguing the country.
   "According to the budgetary provisions, the GDP for next year will grow by 7 per cent and this trend will continue in the medium term. The annual inflation will come down from 7 per cent to 6.7 per cent," notes Achintya Sen, adding for export diversification, IT products have been identified as one of the priority export products. "An allocation of Tk 1,889 crore, which is 2.4 per cent of total budget and 12 per cent higher than the revised budget, has been proposed for information telecommunication and information technology sectors in the next-fiscal year."
   The finance adviser proposed removal of the existing four per cent infrastructure development surcharge on import of finished goods. The budget stipulates to withdraw the surcharge from about 2,600 finished goods.
   Import of more than 400 items, mostly raw materials used in local industry, would lose zero tariff facility and have to pay 10 per cent tariff while about 1,200 industrial raw materials and machinery would see the tariff doubled to 10 per cent.
   Some industrialists and economists believe the measures have been proposed at the insistence of global lenders and would mark a departure from the policy to support local industries and open the floodgate for cheap imports. The finance adviser denies it and insists that no duties or taxes were imposed at the instance of foreign lenders.
   A dispassionate appreciation of the budget by Azra Parveen, an applied economist of Wharton School of Business background, is worth quoting. She writes: "Political crisis notwithstanding, the macro-economic matrix for the budget is favourable. Reserve is building fast beyond US $ five billion with robust remittance set to cross US $ six billion this FY, US $ 900 million BoP surplus in July-March boosted by a surge in remittance and exports despite a fall in FDI and foreign aid, exports jacked up by 22 per cent and the well-performing manufacturing sector-the vital indicators could not have been any better for a budget year.
   "The jumbo budget biased to neo-liberal policy having a huge outlay of Taka 87,137 crore may be termed exceptional since it has been prepared by a non-partisan government and its heroic part is that people's opinions were duly considered for the first time in the country. The budget has a growth orientation although the expenditure target is big in terms of size. Due to drop in revenue and foreign aid, the budget banks heavily on bank borrowing and government's domestic borrowing has already risen by 127 per cent during the first nine months of the current fiscal. The increased allocation for BPC leads to higher budget deficit but reflects transparency. Block allocation is narrowed while proposed allocations broadened for power sector, education and safety nets, which are definitely positive signs. While safety net has bracketed more beneficiaries, there is solid support for the farm sector. But the subsidy and the cash must reach the farmers direct. The difference between tax imposed on finished import goods and raw materials came down to 15 per cent from earlier 10 per cent and it might hit the domestic industries. Then the other challenge besides power sector development and putting inflation into a tolerable level is ensuring private sectors' continuous contribution to the economy. The proposed 16.8 per cent revenue target is not ambitious and closer to reality with a bigger net and such a target would help revenue collection institutions [to] become more effective. This is a good budget considering the present situation and now fine-tuning is needed in the fiscal policy and stance. The government has undertaken three drastic measures to rein in the prices of essentials-liberalising import, facilitating import by small importers, increasing mid-term agriculture production and import. Withdrawal of infrastructure development surcharge and changes in duty structures will help bring transparency in taxation system. However, deficits dog the budget and it remains to be seen if it remains within 5.6 per cent [expected by the finance adviser] of the GDP despite being pumped up by the domestic financing.
   "The budget is 30 per cent bigger than the revised budget for the current fiscal, relying heavily on massive increase in domestic borrowing and foreign assistance, and has received the boost largely to bailout BPC of its outstanding debt of Taka 7,523 crore to NCBs. The budget needs to be implemented but by only 10 Advisers it will be an uphill task.
   "Although budgets have usually increased on an average by 10 per cent every year, in most cases these budgets could not be implemented properly while ensuring transparency in collecting the budgetary money.
   "The current situation is ideal to go harsh on plugging revenue loopholes for better collection to offset the loss in any duty. And reform can be easily accomplished. To make inflation bearable for the poor is the massive safety net programme with dollops of funds allocated in that direction. But doing these two, he will have to keep his eyes open so that aggregate fiscal balance is not disturbed-a deficit less than four per cent of the GDP and domestic financing less than two per cent should be regarded as prudent by any standards. So Adviser Aziz will need a perfect blending of tax and expenditure policies to fight the inflation dragon.
   "The Finance Adviser has already shown some pragmatism rather than idealism in his tax policy. Furthermore, on measures taken to decrease income disparity between the rich and the poor, it may not be possible to reduce the income gap in one budget. Industrialists will not find much to cheer about, except for retaining and increasing the current export subsidy to Taka 1,000 crore. The budget has little to excite the majority of the population living at the lower end and mired in elusive budgetary expectations. One, however, cannot blame the interim government for that."
   The verdict of the man on the street is patently of hope, if not of excitement, over the market response to the budget. Azra Parveen has, however, added a note of prudent warning which will have to be borne in mind. She concludes: "A budget being the tentative roadmap (or blueprint) of the real and predicted earnings and expenditures of the government, the upheavals spurred by the imposition of emergency and the vagaries related to global geopolitics have made the task of making a balanced and realistic budget for 2007-08 much more difficult. That is why the expectations and the allocations outlined in the current budget may prove illusory. Besides, the ailments of the economy are more serious than meets the eye."

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Politics moving towards reforms

Clean politicians to form new party

Abdur Rahman Khan

The politics in Bangladesh is moving towards reform and the scenario appears to be clear by now under the present military-backed interim government. As the government is planning to allow indoor politics from last week of this month, the political reforms will have to take a shape by this week. To that end, the major political parties, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Awami League have already started dialogue within the organisation to reform their parties staving off the corrupt elements and restoring a collective leadership.
   Both Awami League and BNP are going to get a reformed structure by reducing the authorities of the two most influential ladies, Khaleda and Hasina, while a new party is emerging with "clean" politicians from all parties and 'patriotic elements' from professional groups. Ferdous Ahmed Quoreshi, a journalist and former student leader of the sixties, is working as the coordinator of the new political polarisation.
   BNP Secretary General Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan is holding meetings everyday with the party leaders and preparing a proposal for party Chairperson to implement the organisational reforms. Begum Zia is expected to give her consent to the reformists.
   On the other hand, Abdur Razzak, Tofail Ahmed, Ameer Hossain Amu and Suranjeet Sengupta - all presidium members of Awami League --- are working out the reform package for a new Awami League. It is widely speculated that party chief Sheikh Hasina may disagree with the proposal and will try to leave the country for USA this week.
   However, all the three groups --- a new BNP, a new Awami League and the new party of Ferdous Quoreshi --- are expected to make their formal announcements this week.
   With the end of the tenure of BNP-led four-party alliance government Khaleda Zia paved way for an interim caretaker government which as per the Constitution was scheduled to hold a free and fair elections within 90 days but the process was disrupted due to violent agitation programmes launched by the Awami League-led alliance headed by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
   An Army-backed Caretaker Government was installed. In last five months the present regime has reorganised the Election Commission, reconstituted the Anti-Corruption Commission and arrested a number of former ministers, politicians and business leaders on charge of corruption and misuse of power. About 70 very important persons including AL General Secretary Abdul Jalil and Tariq Rahman, elder son Khaleda, was put behind the bar. The reports of corrupt practices as revealed in the investigation was horrifying for the common citizens and frustrating for the political workers.
   However, the attempt to keep the two top leaders --- Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina --- out of the country failed but the authorities implicated both of them in separate cases involving large scale corruption and widespread irregularities. Hasina was implicated in a defence purchase case last month, while Begum Zia was implicated on Tuesday in a case involving financial irregularities in a party newspaper, the Dinkal. BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia and Jamaat chief Matiur Rahman Nizami were also implicated in the case related to the grenade attack at Sheikh Hasina's party meeting on August 21, 2004.
   Meanwhile, the interim government headed by Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed as the Chief Adviser has announced to hold the general elections by the end of next year. Political circle believes that the present government is planning to hand over power to a political party or an alliance of political groups.
   The authorities are now trying to promote a political party of their choice and also bring drastic reform in the political system so that the country is no more hostage under two party system, of either BNP or Awami League. The Election Commission has put forward a proposal before the government to revive the Political Parties Ordinance of 1979 that allows parties to work under registration and a transparent financial accounting system by detaching the party from its front organisations.
   There is also pressure from the diplomatic communities to hold the general election to hand over power to a representative government as quickly as possible. A European Union delegation visited Bangladesh last week and talked to the relevant quarters to assess the political situation in the country. The EU delegation suggested that an election roadmap be declared soon. The outgoing US ambassador to Bangladesh while meeting the political leaders at her farewell call also spoke about quick return to democracy in Bangladesh.

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New polarisation

Defectors defy AL, BNP bosses

A. K. Faezul Huq

The BNP and the Awami League, the two largest political parties of the country, notwithstanding their vast following, are in dire trouble today. While the entire political arena is rife with weird rumours of their splitting up soon or the chances of a major breakup in their ranks, many of their senior leaders have already been found speaking out openly against the policies of their 'supremos' ? directly or through oblique references. Such renegade leaders in the making have been found issuing statements to the press regularly and talking to the media for hours together, informing the countrymen at large, of what should and should not have been done in the past and what ought to be done now by their top most leaders.
   Obviously, people are no more 'perpetual fools' of the bygone days. Thanks to the media ? both print and electronic ? who have not only succeeded in broadening the common people's overall outlook, but have also helped in raising their political IQ to newer heights. Conversely, along with such courageous exercises of the 'turncoats' in the making, who are speaking out their hearts in public today, there is also a definite flow of juicy gossip around pertaining to the birth of a new political party which, as 'they' say, is very much in the offing. Just look at some of the local tabloids and you are sure to come across all sorts of interesting speculations, starting from who is switching over to the new political platform and how many of them. That obviously makes a good reading for the day also.
   The arithmetic is therefore quite simple and easy. One man's loss is obviously other man's gain. If a major chunk of the non-controversial, active, and able set of leaders from different political platforms can be recruited and brought to the fore from all over the country and put together in a new mega political cauldron, 50 per cent of the task would have been achieved. Or so they think. It is further assumed by many optimistic analysts that the political outfit thus formed may take-off quite easily, while simultaneously weakening the parent organizations from where they might be brought or chose to defect, or are literarily exhumed. However, there is the other side of the story also.
   From the umpteen reports floating all around in the air, it is the BNP which might suffer substantial or heavy loss of deserters, including some 'big-wigs', which may include dozens of former ministers and MPs, who are on the 'cleared list of politicians' or are quite safe from the ACC's 'dreaded' dragnet. Conversely, the Awami League [AL] is in a better position, thanks to Sheikh Hasina's dramatics and bold assertions, which have somehow impelled Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's interim government to commit one mistake after the other, undoubtedly reducing its overall credibility to a large extent.
   On the other hand, notwithstanding the fact that many AL leaders and workers of different ranks [and dimensions!] have also been taken into custody on specific or assumed charges of corruption and terrorist activities while in power, yet BNP's loss has been quite sizeable and conspicuous on that count. Political analysts therefore rightly tend to think that if at all a new political organization is formed soon, the majority of its members would be drawn from the AL, Jatiyo party or from such other political parties/ platforms which believe or toe a similar line of liberal politics.
   Here it may be mentioned for historical comparisons that in 1977-78, the late President Ziaur Rahman, while desperately trying to form his political front [and later a political party, i.e BNP], was left with no other choice but to recruit majority of the political leaders/activists from the erstwhile Muslim League or the NAP [Bhashani]. That was so because the Awami Leaguers or their cohorts, in those days, were not to be found in sufficient numbers for 'political recruitments' due to obvious reasons, which is again quite well known to all of us. But the scenario has drastically changed now. There is virtually no dearth of men and women, especially with a reasonable political background, who might be willing to take a fresh plunge in the open sea of politics for some real future gain.
   However, the crux of the problem, as I can perceive, continues to remain unabated. In fact, the million-dollar question is: Who is going head the proposed organization even if the over enthusiastic organizers/ sponsors can organize and gather a 20/30 thousand strong brigade of men and women of various categories within the next few weeks? Is it Dr. Kamal Hossain? Or Professor B. Choudhury, or someone else of whom we havn't heard so far? Unfortunately, none of them would really click for reasons, which again are too well known to all of us. Nicolo Machiavelli, the great Italian philosopher, had once aptly said that for a King to succeed, a smooth coordination of the two most essential prerequisites is a 'sine quo non'. First of all, he or she has to possess the courage of a Lion and secondly, the cunningness [and wisdom] of a Fox. I think even after hundreds of years, Machiavelli's thoughts and formula continues to be absolutely flawless and most appropriate in this age also.
   Many people also try to compare the present situation with the one which obtained in 1976-77, when the late President Ziaur Rahman took over as the head of the country and decided to launch his own political party, and later in 1984-85, when Hussain Mohammed Ershad also tried the same formula. Both Zia and Ershad were army chiefs and head of the martial law governments with absolute power in their hands as the head of the state. As such, with hardly any other option left, most people flocked around them for the proverbial 'loaves and fishes'. But the scenario is totally different today. The present chief of army has made his position absolutely clear, and unless and until there is a reversal of such an important decision or thinking, the present day developments cannot be compared with what happened in the past. Therefore, the promoters of the new political organization should seriously ponder over the whole scheme and take a judicious decision. That decision may come even after the formation of an extended council of advisers.
   My own reading is: Political defections from the top level AL leadership would be almost negligible because, with Sheikh Hasina sitting tight on the soil of Bangladesh, there are only a few men [or women] of courage and guts who can challenge her leadership straight away and walk out with their heads high. Further, most of the top AL leaders are in their mid 60s or even early 70s and are heavily dependent on the AL supremo's all out blessings. Take for example one glaring case in point. Begum Motia Choudhury. Even with her glorious and outstanding [past] record as a successful firebrand student leader of the '60s; her impeccable record of honesty ? both personal and political ? just could not make it to the august house called the parliament until she changed her political platform and loyalty, more than 25 years ago. Even today, most of the AL bigwigs are almost a big zero minus the AL sticker and Sheikh Hasina's personal blessings ? an assertion which may sound weird and quite unfriendly. In fact, on that count, many of the mid level AL leaders are much better off with their own personal reputation in their respective constituencies, shinning conspicuously. AL or no AL; Hasina or no Hasina, such leaders down the ladder would be invariably elected every time due to their own credentials, as long as they maintain a good record in the area. A safe conclusion therefore, as far as the formation and launching of a new political party is concerned, would be to wait and see the pacing developments till such time that we have a new 'supremo' in our midst who can take over the heavy mantle of state responsibility with a smiling face and throw a real challenge to both Hasina and Khaleda. That would again be an interesting scene to watch if at all that happens.

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"Global Corruption Report 2007"

Indian legal system in the dock

Praful Bidwai in New Delhi

The reputation of India's judiciary, considered overbearing and democratically unaccountable by many, has taken a knock with the publication of a report by Transparency International (TI) called the "Global Corruption Report 2007".
   The report, based on a 2005 countrywide survey of "public perceptions and experiences of corruption in the lower judiciary,'' conducted by the Centre for Media Studies, finds that a very high 77 per cent of respondents believe the Indian judiciary is corrupt.
   It says that ''bribes seem to be solicited as the price of getting things done''. The estimated amount paid in bribes in a 12-month period was found to be around US$580 million. ''Money was paid to the officials in the following proportions: 61 per cent to lawyers; 29 per cent to court officials; 5 per cent to middlemen."
   "This is a wake-up call not just for India's legal system, but for society and the state itself", says Upendra Baxi, a highly regarded Indian jurist, former vice-chancellor of Delhi University, and professor at the University of Warwick in Britain. "It confirms what we have known for years and casts a shadow on the integrity of the judiciary. It also calls for urgent, drastic remedial measures."
   "The report only covers the lower or subordinate judiciary and excludes the judges of the High Courts (of Indian states) and the (national) Supreme Court. There are credible reports that corruption has permeated the higher judiciary too,'' Baxi told IPS.
   In January 2002, S.P. Bharucha, then India's chief justice, said that 20 per cent of the higher judiciary might be corrupt. In recent years, several upper court judges have been accused of "irregularities", for instance, in the preferential allotment of valuable land by state governments, and other favours.
   The report of the Berlin-based TI should greatly embarrass India's judiciary, which always takes a sanctimonious stand on corruption. This past March, two judges of the Supreme Court said: "Everywhere, we have corruption. Everybody wants to loot this country. The only solution for this menace is to hang some people (like you) on the lamppost so that it acts as a deterrent."
   However, no case of judicial corruption has ever been put on trial in India. Under the Indian system, it is virtually impossible to charge or impeach a judge.
   "In India, impeachment is not feasible because it requires a huge (two-thirds) majority in Parliament,'' argues Colin Gonsalves, a public interest lawyer with the Human Rights Law Network told IPS. "India's parliamentary elections have produced hung verdicts for years. And it is virtually impossible to muster the numbers necessary for impeaching a judge. In 1993, V. Ramaswamy, a Supreme Court judge, was found culpable by a court committee. But he was politically well-connected and could not be impeached."
   This "freedom" from prosecution and impeachment further compounds the credibility crisis of the judiciary, in particular, the higher judiciary, which in India is a self-appointing entity not answerable to the legislature or executive.
   The higher courts of India, shielded from public scrutiny, have increasingly turned conservative. They have recently handed down judgments which abridge or abolish labour rights, dilute environmental regulations, promote Big Business interests, and uncritically support globalisation and privatisation.
   Judicial corruption in India is attributable to a number of factors, including "delays in the disposal of cases, shortage of judges and complex procedures, all of which are exacerbated by a preponderance of new laws", according to TI.
   Says the TI report: "As of February 2006, 33,635 cases were pending in the Supreme Court; ... 3,341,040 cases in the High Courts; and a much larger number of cases in the 13,204 subordinate courts. This vast backlog leads to long adjournments and prompts people to pay to speed up the process. In 1999, it was estimated: 'At the current rate of disposal it would take another 350 years for disposal of the pending cases even if no other cases were added'."
   Another factor is the low ratio of judges per one million population. This is as low as 12 to 13 in India, compared to 107 in the U.S., 75 in Canada and 51 in Britain. This high workload encourages delays and adjournments on frivolous grounds. "The judicial system, including judges and lawyers, has developed a vested interest in delays as well as corruption; it promotes a collusive relationship between the different players", says Baxi. "This works against the public interest and the citizen's rights. But even more important is the assault on rights that has occurred under the globalising neo-liberal turn made by India's higher judiciary since the early 1990s."
   Baxi terms this the "Structural Adjustment of Judicial Activism", after the now-discredited "Washington Consensus" package of "free-market" policies promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
   He argues that the Supreme Court and many High Courts have redefined their roles: from defenders of human rights and Constitutional freedoms, and guardians of the public interest, to conscious promoters of neo-liberal globalisation, with unrestricted freedom for capital and shrunken rights for the ordinary public.
   "The tragedy in India", adds Gonsalves, "is that it's hard to put checks on the judiciary even as it runs amok by appropriating executive powers and interfering with legislative procedures even though the Constitution explicitly bars the procedures' judicial scrutiny."
   In recent years, the Indian courts have practised "micro-management" of functions which properly belong to the executive, including specifying which fuel should be used in public buses, how cities should be planned and run, whether or not certain books should be censored, and whether street food should be sold.
   The executive and legislature resent and chafe at this. Indeed, a first-rate conflict is brewing between these arms of the state, and the courts. There is a move to demand judicial accountability through a National Judicial Council Bill, which would allow serious investigation of corruption and other misconduct on the part of judges.
   However, the Bill remains mired in conflict. The judiciary wants the Council to be manned entirely by judges, to the exclusion of members of the government, and equally important, of civil society. The executive does not.
   "There are no easy solutions to the problem of making judges accountable," argues Baxi. "But some interim partial measures can be tried. One is to appoint judicial ombudsmen from two highly-regarded statutory bodies, the Election Commission and Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India. Nothing prevents the CAG from initiating an independent review of the performance of the judiciary. The CAG could produce highly credible and objective reports and help kick-start a process of promoting transparency and accountability."
   It is unclear if India's executive and Parliament are willing to initiate such an exercise. But observers say that unless corrective steps are taken, the judiciary will continue to defy democratic accountability and intrude into areas outside its domain, even while corruption and denial of justice remain the order of the day.
   - Inter Press Services

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Sino-Indian ties improving

Fazle Rashid in New York

The Holiday in its June 1 issue reported an eruption of diplomatic row between China and India over visit of Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers to China for training. One hundred and seven IAS personnel were to visit China. China granted visas to 106 of them but denied the same to one who belonged to Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims is a Chinese territory.
   The training was called off. But a dramatic reversal to this hard-line posture over a mere fortnight sparked much surprise in Washington and Islamabad. To the utter amazement of them and the world at large, China and India have agreed to hold a joint military exercise sometime in October. Over 100 Indian Army personnel will go to China to receive training in anti-terrorism. The two countries fought a brief but bloody war in 1962 during the height of 'Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai' phase in their bilateral ties. The ties between the countries have been frosty since then.
   The ruling military junta in Thailand has frozen more than $1.6 billion of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife saying it will enquire whether the money was legally earned or not. The ousted prime minister is a billionaire telecommunication tycoon. He was deposed in a coup in September while he was abroad. The military junta says the ousted prime minister was corrupt and plundered the national wealth.
   Meanwhile, opponents of the military-installed government marched through Bangkok streets to the Army headquarters in the most defiant protest yet against the regime that came to power staging a coup. The demonstrators demanded lifting of the martial law and reinstatement without revision of the 1997 constitution which has been abrogated by the coup leaders.
   And in Pakistan, military dictator Pervez Musharraf suffered yet another setback when the Supreme Court agreed to allow its suspended Chief Justice Ifthikar Mohammad Chowdhury to contest his removal by Musharraf before the full bench of the court. Musharraf suspended Chowdhury alleging that the Chief Justice had abused his office. Chowdhury's dismissal provoked a sharp anti-Musharraf movement in Pakistan.
   The Pakistan government has announced the national budget with a $26.37 billion outlay and without any new tax. The budget includes many populist and vote-catching measures. The elections in Pakistan will be held sometime next year. Musharraf is credited for the recovery of the economy but is criticised for his autocratic rule. He is reportedly striking a political deal with Benazir Bhutto. Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, will perhaps remain president with his wings of power clipped and Bhutto will become the prime minister as elections sans opposition will be unacceptable both at home and abroad.
   Nobody takes General Musharraf's democratic claims seriously any more, except for Bush administration which has put itself in the embarrassing position of propping up the Muslim world's most powerful dictator as an essential ally in its half-baked campaign to promote democracy throughout the Muslim world. Washington needs to disentangle America from the general's damaging embrace, New York Times in an editorial said yesterday. If Washington distances itself from the general, it would encourage civic-minded Pakistanis to step up pressure for free national elections, the NYT said.

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Glimpses of the Great

Steve Jobs

K Z Islam

In the past six years Apple, with its Ipod player and iTunes service Steve Jobs has come to lead the digital music industry. On June 29th Apple will enter an ever bigger market when it launches a new mobile phone called iPhone. Steve Job's success in this transformation so far, and the expectation of a new phase thanks to the iPhone, explain why Apple, one decade after nearly collapsing, is now worth more than US$ 100 billion and is to be included in the America's blue-chips elite, the S&P 100 index.
   The following is a quotation from parts of the text of the commencement address delivered in June 12, 2005 by Steve Jobs in the Stanford University. This throws some light on his life.
   "It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.
   And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition.
   I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?
   I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it.
   Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this.
   At that time I did not think Calligraphy would come to use in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts.

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THE BOTTOM LINE

Taher Quddus

An electronic media person walked up to me and asked: "What is your reaction about the budget?" He had put his hand held microphone on my face.
   "Excellent." I replied.
   "Why do you say so?" The media man was not happy with my reply. He wanted more details.
   "I say excellent because I did not see the patriotic ministers and MPs sleeping, yawning and dozing off during the budget speech. These are the leaders about whom we see in the newspapers the appalling stories of stealing, cheating, extortion of fund and perpetration of fraud. Every time I saw them in the air-conditioned hall in that condition I had a hunch that the country had it! And invariably it happened so. But this time they were missing, that itself was a great relief! Some top politicians, however, were very sad about their absence. They expressed their doubts about the legality of this budget, because the peoples' representatives were absent. Alas! they don't seem to know one simple formula that when the peoples' representatives breach the trust people reposed on them, every action taken without them automatically becomes legal! Unwritten constitution is so loud and clear. This time, I am sure absence of these people during budget session shall auger well for the country."
   The media person was impatient, "kindly tell us your reaction only about this budget."
   "This is a secret which I can not disclose to anybody, and certainly not to a media person."
   "What is so secret about it?" the media person asked.
   "Budget is a philosophy. It details the behaviour pattern of the 'Rulers' for the next one year. Likes and dislikes of the 'Rulers' can not be kept hidden. So, I am not going to explain to you about them." After pausing for a while, I said, "I am sure you have heard the budget speech, so you know about it as much as I do."
   "Your comments would be very important. Please consider saying something."
   Reluctantly I said, "Budget is the manipulation of 11k and of taxes. And the taxation system has made more liars out of us than any other state activities. Perhaps it would have been better if there was nothing like budget."
   "You are talking in general terms. Please talk about this particular budget and be specific," the media person persisted.
   "In brief Dr. Mirza Azizul Islam is trying to fry a tiny fish in a large frying pan without adding any oil, I wish him success," I said smilingly.
   "What do you mean? He asked.
   "I mean it is a 'Big' plan with unconfirmed resources and means."
   "Do you think the Finance Advisor would have done better by presenting a deficit budget to achieve his goals?"
   "Not really. Deficit budget means living beyond one's means. Only dynamic persons can do that. Mediocre persons live within their own means. Our Finance Advisor has cleverly made a mixture of the two. He is neither dynamic nor mediocre, actually he is a clever person," I said.
   "Would you please make it clear," media person asked.
   "Our Finance Adviser did not sufficiently add revenue enhancer and yet he promised a happy tomorrow for us," I replied.
   "How is that possible without enhancing revenue," the media person appeared visibly surprised.
   "I was also in confusion until I saw big queues in front of all the banks. When I inquired some people about the reason for the queue they replied that they were withdrawing their money because Mirza Azizul Islam is 'heavily banking on bank loans' to fulfill his budget commitment."
   "Do you wish to say anything more?" he asked again.
   "Yes. Although the discarded politicians hired foreign lobbyists and nosy ambassadors are asking the government to go for election soon even without completing the reforms at hand, Mirza Azizul Islam did not put any flashy gimmickry of electoral politics in the budget as had been done earlier on such occasions by political ministers. It is like a succulent pot roast without salt." I took a pause and added: "Do not under estimate Mirza Azizul Islam. He has kept something under his sleeve. That is the invisible revenue enhancer coming through Babar, Huda, Tarique, Arafat, Falu, Saka, Nasir, Aman, Gias, Haris, Nasim, Karim and many more to come as surprise."
   "Please wrap up," he said.
   "Excellent. Could not have been better."

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