Parleys with CG, parties likely

BNP to cleanse party of corrupt elements

A.R. Khan

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Has been jolted for the second time in as many months with the arrest of more of its leaders including presidium member Dr Khandaker Mosharraf, Senior BNP Joint Secretary General and Begum Zia's eldeset son Tariq Rahman and Islami Oikya Jote leader Mufti Ijharul Islam early on Thursday.
   It was emotionally shocking for Begum Khaleda Zia, being a mother, to see her lder son to be taken away from her house in the midnight by the boys in uniform. Furthermore, it was also politically challenging to see her party and alliance leaders arrested one after another on different charges.
   It was equally shocking for Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina - who the other day claimed this government to be an outcome of her party's movement - to see her residence Sudhasadan raided at midnight in search of two of her close cousins and party's strongman and Mayor of Chittagong City Corporation Mohiuddin Chowdhury, being arrested.
   In Awami League, Sheikh Hasina's leadership was criticized openly in last week's working committee meeting for her response to present political situation and the actions of the caretaker government.
   Meanwhile, in an initial and spontaneous reaction to Tariq Zia's arrest, student activists belonging to the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra dal brought out processions in Dhaka University, Jahangirnagar University and Jagannath University campus on Thursday morning. However, law enforcers dispersed them.
   However, dissatisfactions are being expressed by many young and veteran BNP leaders about the wisdom of the party leadership in handling the political affairs particularly in relations to caretaker government.
   Most of the BNP leaders including members of the former parliament, district, upazila or ward units of the party are on the run following arrest of some of their colleagues in connection with the recovery of relief goods, endangered species of animals from their possession or filing false statements of wealth. There are also a number of BNP leaders who are critical of the corrupt persons in the party and want a soul searching before going to take any political stand.
   In an apparent response to Awami League's demand for elections by June this year, a BNP delegation met the election commission last week to say that they favoured the election by July. But the interim caretaker government is yet to decide any timeframe for elections as the necessary reforms are still going on to hold a free, fair and credible election. In fact, they have shown no inclination to hold the election before completing the reform tasks they have set for themselves.
   In the backdrop of current political scenario, BNP leaders are now discussing the options to face the situation. Of the possible options, the question of keeping the organization active and making the leadership credible is being highlighted .
   Legal protection for the leaders and workers is being discussed as a priority but the leadership wants to make it sure that only those who have been unnecessarily made victims of circumstances would be provided with necessary legal support. "We are facing crisis for the misdeed by corrupt persons and party should not bear their burden" says many in the party.
   Party leaders are also talking about streamlining the organization by purging the corrupt persons from the party leadership at different tiers and replacing them with a credible and active group involving both young and veteran leaders.
   BNP is known to be toying with the idea of availing the option to form a party group to negotiate with the interim government in confidence building efforts that they were for fair and good politics in the country. Another group may be given the assignment to discuss with the political parties beyond their four-party alliance to reach a common understanding for holding an election acceptable to all.
   Besides, BNP may go for developing an effective rapport and understanding with the donors and development partners to get the suspended democracy restored within the quickest possible time.

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US, Israel ready to attack Iran

M. Shahidul Islam in Toronto

A winning strategy for the powerful at times means further escalation to broaden the theatre of operations. President Bush's recent decision to dispatch over 22,000 extra troops to Iraq has much to do with the Pentagon's secret plan to launch a preemptive offensive against Iran than to secure Baghdad, according to reports swirling around the world.
   A survey of the reports indicates that the possibility of an attack against Iran is getting more realistic by the day. "The Pentagon has completed contingency planning for extensive air strikes on Iran that go beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure," a BBC report disclosed on February 19. "It is understood that any such attack would target Iranian air bases, naval bases, missile facilities and command-and-control centres," said the report.
   Israel too is joining the fray. Three Arab states are reported to have given the green light for Israeli warplanes to transit their airspace for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported on February 26. Kuwait's Al-Siyasa newspaper was quoted by Israel's Ha'aretz that Qatar, Oman and the UAE have consented to allowing their airspaces for an attack on Iran by Israeli warplanes. The report's authenticity could not be corroborated.
   
   Caution from experts
   Any military action against Iran's nuclear programme is likely to backfire and accelerate Tehran's development of a nuclear bomb, warned a former British nuclear weapons scientist, Frank Barnaby, on March 5.
   Barnaby argued that air strikes, reportedly being contemplated as an option by the White House, would strengthen the hand of Iranian hardliners, unite the Iranian population behind a bomb, and would almost certainly trigger an underground program to build a small number of warheads as quickly as possible.
   Other reports say Iran may have the ability to hurriedly cobble a bomb or two to knock off Israel, if attacked. "After all, Israel is a one-bomb nation," opined a commentator. Iran has been enriching uranium since it broke the IAEA seals on enrichment sites in late 2006.
   Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector at the time of the Iraq War, said an assault against Iran could turn out to be every bit as disastrous. "In the case of Iraq, the armed action aimed to eliminate weapons of mass destruction - that did not exist. It led to tragedy and regional turmoil. In the case of Iran, armed action would be aimed at intentions - that may or may not exist," Blix said.
   
   Attack feared any day
   The US army, navy, air force and marines have all prepared battle plans and spent four years building bases and training for 'Operation Iranian Freedom," claimed a report published in the New Statesman (UK) on February 19.
   "American military operations for a major conventional war with Iran could be implemented any day. They extend far beyond suspected WMD facilities and will enable President Bush to destroy Iran's military, political and economic infrastructure," the report added.
   Earlier, citing senior Pentagon, State Department and intelligence sources, veteran US journalist Seymour Hersh published several detailed articles in the New Yorker magazine, outlining US plans for attacking Iran, including possible use of nuclear weapons. Several British newspapers, including the Times, have also described advanced US and Israeli military preparations against Tehran.
   Despite Bush administration's insistence that it is willing to pursue diplomatic means to force Iran to shut down its uranium enrichment facilities, moves are afoot to toughen sanctions against Iran while the military plan for an attack is in its final stage.
   "As a fallback plan, senior officials at Central Command in Florida have already selected their targets inside Iran," the BBC report disclosed. The list includes Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and other facilities at Isfahan, Arak and Bushehr.
   The sign of an impending attack can be gleaned from other moves too. Recent British decision to withdraw over 1500 of its troops from Basra seems to be aimed at reducing risks on UK forces in the Shia-dominated southern Iraq where Iran might retaliate with help from sympathetic Shia guerrilla fighters of southern Iraq.
   As well, Britain's decision to deploy an extra 1500 troops to southern Afghanistan seems a tactical move to tackle Iranian threats of retaliation against NATO forces in neighbouring Afghanistan.
   
   Regime change
   According to the plan, the US wants an Iraqi and Afghan style regime change in Iran with help from expatriate Iraqis. President Bush is also determined to stop an Iranian predominance in the Mid-East and has instructed the CIA to drive a wedge between the Shia and Sunni leaders of the Muslim world.
   Analysts also fear that diplomacy will not cut the ice as the US is still unwilling to eschew its option of precondition- suspension of uranium enrichment- before talking to Tehran directly. That's why the hawks in Washington are sounding increasingly bellicose.
   Vice President Dick Cheney warned in an ABC television interview on February 23 that the United States would "do everything" it can to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons. Cheney too refused to rule out military action, saying, "We haven't taken any options off the table."
   
   Iran's stand
   Iran says, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it retains the right to benefit from a civil nuclear programme. "We demonstrated our sincerity to the world by sitting at the negotiating table for more than two years and by suspending all our peaceful nuclear activities to show our goodwill," wrote Rasoul Movahedian, Iranian ambassador to the UK, in an OP Ed piece published in the UK's Guardian newspaper on February 22.
   Movahedian complained that the nuclear issue was over politicised last year on spurious legal and technical grounds, by taking it away from the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the UN Security Council. He says Resolution 1737, passed in December 2006, was based not on facts but on suspicion, and undermined the credibility of the Council.
   As the threat of an attack grows, Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards launched a three-day military drill on February 19 across the country, conducting a series of missile tests. The latest war game, dubbed Eqtedar or grand, was carried out in 16 of Iran's 30 provinces abutting Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf. 20 brigades of the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces joined the maneuvers and some of the most advanced weapons were tested. Iran also launched a sub-orbital satellite on February 25 which is believed to be capable of spying over enemy moves on land, sea and air.
   The latest Iranian war game followed similar exercises in recent weeks. Missile units of the air and naval forces of the Revolutionary Guards launched phony war games on February 7 to test the country's missile defence capability. Land-to-sea cruise missile and newly imported Tor-M1 air defence missile systems were tested in those exercises.
   Earlier, Iran conducted a 10 days long military maneuvers in November, codenamed "The Great Prophet 2", in which the Revolutionary Guards test fired ballistic Shahab-3 missiles with a range of more than 2,000 km. Shahab-3 can hit Tel Aviv and Haifa.
   
   Miscalculation feared
   While expressing his reaction on the Iranian war games, outgoing commander of the US navy's Fifth Fleet has expressed concern on February 22 that a "Miscalculation by Iran in its nuclear standoff with the West could spark an armed conflict in the Persian Gulf region."
   Vice Admiral Patrick M. Walsh, head of the US naval forces Central Command, said at the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain that Iran was more likely to threaten oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz than mine the strategic passageway in the event of a showdown.
   "What concerns me is miscalculation. That's certainly what we are trying to avoid... a mistake that then boils over into a war," Walsh said. Walsh's forces are responsible for overseeing the security of free navigation in the Gulf, from the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean to Pakistan in the east.
   The fear of a renewed war in the Mid-East also prompted five Arab foreign ministers to meet in Islamabad on February 25. Pakistan is worried that its Shia population might burst into rebellion if Iran is attacked by the US and Israel.
   Despite speculation to the contrary, the message of Arab foreign ministers' meeting in Islamabad seemed to have evoked negative reaction in Washington. Hours after the meeting, White House warned that the US would cut aid to Pakistan unless Pakistan does more to rein in the Taliban.
   As well, before the Security Council met on March 6 to toughen sanctions against Iran, the US further beefed up its force capability by dispatching a second nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS John C. Stennis, and its accompanying strike groups to join the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Sea of Oman. US also accumulated an array of mine sweepers to clear the six-mile wide waterway of the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian mines.
   The intractable stands of both sides indicate the arrival of another major war in the Middle East and more of economic and social disasters for the Arab-Islamic civilisation in particular. Globally, oil price may jump to $75-$80 a barrel and increase miseries of oil importing poor nations.

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Sadeq Khan

Politics remains restricted to indoor exchanges and pious press statements during the prevailing state of emergency. The political parties, however, have found a way to embark on some sort of party political exercise on the issue of election schedule. Delegations from several parties have sought and obtained audiences with the reconstituted Election Commission, which has the primary responsibility and "constitutional obligation" to hold general election "within ninety days of dissolution of the (last) parliament."
   Political commentators, and some political leaders themselves, are harping on conflicting interpretations of that "constitutional obligation." Some are suggesting that the reconstituted election commission should count ninety days, under the unusual circumstances of force majeure, from the date of formation of the "legitimate" caretaker government of Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed. Others are suggesting that the reconstituted election commission is obliged to hold general election, in the peculiar circumstance of infraction of its predecessor election commission, within ninety days from the date it took office. Yet others are suggesting that constitutional provision for validating a proclamation of emergency within 120 days by the existing parliament implies "unwritten constitutional limit" of 120 days for any state of emergency; therefore, the ninety days' limit for general election, which was 16 days short of expiry on January 11 when emergency was proclaimed, could only be extended by 120 days more. They appear to overlook another qualifying constitutional proviso that clearly says if an emergency situation arises when a parliament is not in existence, the proclamation of emergency will remain in force, unless extended by public representatives, up to one month of induction of the next elected parliament.
   Yet others are suggesting that six months should be considered a reasonable time for the emergency caretaker government to complete its task of preparing grounds for "free, fair, credible and corruption-free" general election, and hence the EC should announce a target date for general election in July. Some commentators are suggesting that the President ought to seek the opinion of the Supreme Court on the issue.
   The Caretaker Government has made it abundantly clear that general election will be held only when the emergency task (of ensuring "honest democratic conduct" and removing "threats" against citizens' life and property and the wheels of the economy, as enunciated by President Iajuddin Ahmed in January 11, 2007, or severing "the nexus between crime and politics", as implored by the former World Bank Vice-President Ms M. Nishimiju on March 15, 2002) is completed. The representative link between two parliaments remain in the body of the President, and as defender of the Constitution, it is he who will decide, albeit on the advice of the Caretaker Government, when and whether the emergency task has been satisfactorily completed.
   There is no time bar, and there is no ambiguity in the Supreme Law in this regard to require reference to the Supreme Court. Indeed if and when the emergency is lifted, the EC may still have 16 days' margin to conduct the general election and declare results, if the intervening emergency period is considered an extra-ordinary period outside the count of constitutional limitation of normal interval between two elected parliaments and their representative governments. Former Attorney General Hasan Arif has, on the other hand, expressed his considered opinion that a validation by the next elected parliament of the "necessity" to cross the ninety days' limit, as specifically stipulated by the Constitution, for holding general election after the expiry of a parliament will be required by regular constitutional amendment. It is advisable so that complications do not arise from any future litigation challenging the propriety of the President's application of the doctrine of necessity. Meanwhile, all the political parties have willy-nilly extended their express acceptance of the force of that necessity.
   The current head of the reconstituted Election Commission happens to be a seasoned bureaucrat. In the event, the two major political parties sought to impress upon him the import of their demand "for a timeframe" to hold general election "as soon as possible" by sending delegations that were composed primarily of bureaucrats. In one case the delegation comprised of all heavy-weight former bureaucrats turned politicians, and in the other case also the delegation was compose of former bureaucrats turned politician accompanied by a joint secretary-general and party spokesman who was the lone seasoned politicians taking part in that exercise. The Chief Election Commissioner reportedly warned both the delegations ahead that he could only listen to them and give them an idea of what the EC was doing, and that the meetings were premature. When the EC is ready to declare the election schedule or to consult the parties on any other matter preparatory to general election including changes in legal parameters, the political parties would be duly invited for talks. The delegations nevertheless insisted on meeting the election commission and making their submissions.
   The exercise, which can be seen more as a routine than a serious pursuit by the relevant political parties as they are soul-searching under the impact of emergency measures, have been identified as such by another former bureaucrat turned a prolific columnist (not a politician). I quote the relevant part of the newspaper column "Worth A Look" by A M M Shawkat Ali, who makes that point: "In the wake of drive against corruption and all sorts of criminals, it appears that the political powers that were or will be in future have started soul searching and self-purification. This is welcome news. However, it should be distinctly understood that it cannot and should not be a one-shot affair. It should be a continuous process.... (Understandably) there will be differences in approach from one political party to another.
   "The differences in approach are clearly visible in respect of the two major parties as it relates to the timeframe of the next elections. One major party (without consulting the partners of its grand alliance) has suggested to the Election Commission that the elections should be held not later than June this year. However, it is said that the party chief has revised from a definite timeframe because of pressure from within the party....Two other parties, which are part of the grand alliance, are not in favour of a definite timeframe....
   "The other major party, (also on its own) as media reports have it, has asked that elections be held by July. Media reports further indicate sharp differences of opinion between the chairperson and the other leaders within the party on the issue of the extent corrupt practices by some party men damaged the political strength of the party....
   "It must, however, be stated that earlier on, a spokesman of the very same party categorically affirmed that it would not accept any responsibility of the allegedly corrupt party men who now face prosecution. In any event, it is apparent that the process of soul searching has now been set in motion. The party has also initiated the process of disciplinary action by asking the party men to explain their position in respect of alleged theft of relief materials. The result of this process will take some time to emerge.
   "As regards the other major party, which led the 14-party opposition combine, this process is also visible in words, if not in affirmative action. The most positive aspect, on which information is so far available, is that this party has set about the task of putting in place in-party democratic practices."

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Current account surplus

Balance of payment vulnerable

Asjadul Kibria

Both the finance adviser and the central bank governor may be complacent finding a record surplus in the country's current account balance during the first half of the current fiscal year (FY07). The Bangladesh Bank statistics showed that current account balance surged to a surplus of $579 million in July-December period of 2006 compared to $247 million in the same period of the previous year.
   Surplus in current account reflects aggregate demand in the economy has not outpaced the supply. But the dissection of balance of payment table shows that there is hardly any scope for being satisfied on current account surplus. In fact, the real shortfall of supply against the domestic demand is significantly visible if one excludes the remittance inflow worth $2.86 billion in the period under review. In that event, the current account reflects a huge deficit of $2.28 billion that is impossible to cover by any other means.
   The Indian policymakers are now taking the similar approach in their consideration. The governor of the Reserve Bank of India, YV Reddy recently said that India's already widen current account deficit would be larger if the inflow of remittance is excluded from the balance of payment account. India's current account deficit has already reached around 3 per cent of the GDP, but excluding remittance the deficit turns to 5 per cent of the GDP.
   Of course, the case of Bangladesh is not as bad as in India. And the deficit on merchandise trade has reduced slightly in the first half of FY07. The trade gap dropped slightly to $1.26 billion from $1.29 billion in the same period of FY06, the central bank statistics show. But deficits in service trade and income have ballooned as gap in service trade soared to $770 million from $542 million while deficit in income stood at $485 million as against $363 million in July-December period of 2005.
   The lower trade deficit is mainly due to higher growth in export compared to import payments. The import has actually started to decline since December. The central bank statistics showed that import payments dropped to $1.39 billion in December, which was $1.54 billion in November 2006. But the real setback began since the anti-hording drive initiated by the joint forces. Although the legal move against hording and adulteration is essential, without any appropriate long-term strategy the administrative drive, it has disrupted the supply chain of essentials. As a result, imports during the month of February became sluggish.
   While lower import would reduce the trade gap, it caused supply side disruption and fueled inflationary pressure. Thus demand against supply would widen further and economy will be in crisis. Already, price of essentials started to move upward and neither monetary, nor fiscal policy can curb it. It required effective administrative measures.
   The overall balance of payment is still positive due to larger surplus in current account. The central bank data revealed that the overall balance showed a surplus of $347 million during July-December, 2006 against the deficit of $201 million during the same period of 2005. But the balance in the financial account has started to deteriorate as it stood at a negligible surplus of $1 million at the end-December, which was in surplus worth $77 million at the end-November.
   Both the foreign direct investment and external assistance have dropped during the period under review. The amount of FDI was $250 million in the six months compared to $362 million in the same period of 2005. Economic Relation Division data revealed that the country has received almost only one-fourth of aid in the current period than it did in the first half of FY06. It showed that net receipts of foreign aid during July-December 2006 stood lower at $149.80 million, against $417.07 million during July-December, 2005. The task this time appears more difficult indeed.

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FDI welcome, but not at expense
of national interest

Faruque Ahmed

The statement in the press by former president Gen. Ershad last week at the Election Commission that the whole world knows "he is not a corrupt person" has come as a surprise to the nation. His utterance has posed a 64,000-dollar question if the government has allowed him to move free despite the fact that he amassed huge wealth illegally 15 years ago.
   The far-reaching reforms and cleansing operation of the government in the political and bureaucratic establishments have earned praise for the interim Caretaker Government (CG). But the question, which is increasingly being raised these days is whether the hand of the law is equally touching everybody responsible for crimes, corruption and plundering of national wealth.
   Many politicians, ex-ministers and MPs of the immediate past BNP government and former Awami League regime are either on the run or behind the bar for allegedly committing crimes of various kinds. But what about the outcome of the crimes itself; for example, the agreements they facilitated to sign. Again, for instance, the Niko gas field contract or the Asia Energy issue. Niko was a good project to recover the leftover gas in old and abandoned gas fields. The choice was quite good. But the way a section of the powerbrokers and bureaucrats worked out the contract in which they also handed over a virgin gas field to Niko at Chhatak, turned it from a good project to a highly questionable one.
   
   National interest
   So also was the Asia Energy project. The same way a section of the power brokers are allegedly trying to strike a deal on Tata investment proposals. Asia Energy is a helpless victim now for the flaws or the crimes of a section of power brokers and local officials who, by and large, compromised national interest while signing the MoU with the company.
   Interestingly, both the Awami League and the BNP regimes dealt with the project and no one tried to correct the provisions of the contract that was thought to be contrary to national interest. Rather they moved further away to promote their own interest sacrificing national interest in handling the issues related to coal mines exploration and development, royalty and export issues.
   Ultimately Asia Energy had to be evicted from the Fulbari coalmine site and putting it back to the spot will be a big problem. But in this case, it is more a problem for the government as the host country than that of Asia Energy. To correct the situation, it should be seen whether the Asia Energy would agree to rewrite the contract. If yes, who will initiate the negotiation.
   Does the interim government have the authority or should the whole thing be left to the next elected government? However, one thing clear: the contract must get the total support of the nation's political establishment. Only a nod from the party in power will not be enough to settle the mistrust. Otherwise, the people may again be instigated to agitate as there is no dearth of interested people to undo any such move to tarnish the country's image abroad as a good destination for foreign investment.
   The Niko case also requires reappraisal. Its local powerbrokers need to be identified and brought to the book. But this has to be done by the CG to establish the credibility of its anti-graft crusade that it is equally targeted to all wrongdoers. The alleged criminals and officials who have apparently sold the national interest or facilitated to exploit national wealth by foreigners in exchange of personal benefits should also be taken to task.
   This particular issue was discussed last week at the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A participant observed that capital-intensive technology, which does not add much to employment below the managerial level staff, are filled up by investors' own engineers or skilled manpower: this is not what Bangladesh should go for. Naming some investors including Niko or Asia Energy, he said the country must be selective in choosing investment proposals, which should be a win-win-situation for both.
   Referring to GrameenPhone operation, he noted that Bangladesh proved to be a very attractive place for investment. But he questioned as to how much the GrameenPhone has invested in the country and answered it by saying that it brought no capital, almost nothing of its own. It accumulated capital here including bank loans and now repatriating profit. According to press reports, last year the profit was to the tune of about US$400 million.
   He wondered whether it is a desirable investment, and blamed the persons and past governments, which granted the license to the company without levying any fee and what even appears worst, exempting the company from paying corporate taxes.
   The question is: whether the government will identify these people and at the same time take the move to correct the wrong agreements, at least, by persuading the companies to register them with the stock exchange. In that event, local shareholders will get some dividend on profits.
   The participants at the DCCI seminar on "Innovator guide in Bangladesh: a case study on FDI" said the country should "rewrite its FDI policy by inducing professional approach" to it.
   Noted economist and president of Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA) Dr Quazi Kholiquazzaman said Bangladesh economy in so far as foreign investment is concerned, is mostly an "economy of connivance". Powerbrokers close to the government mediated signing of most such deals including the production sharing contracts (PSCs) in the gas sector. And such deals are going against national interest. "We must not allow its continuance," he added.
   These investments are helping more flight of capital than taking in capital into the country. Any country conscious and responsive to its interest cannot allow it to happen, he said.

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Arresting price spiral should be
CG's main task

Mohammed Ali Sattar

The Caretaker Government (CG) continues to pursue its actions against the alleged corrupt elements in politics, business and bureaucracy. The members of this CG are more focused on hauling up of the individuals allegedly involved in embezzlement, corruption and political wrongdoings, which have been already lauded.
   Though the CG is chasing the culprits, it does not seem attentive to the constant hardship of the people. The most important area is the customer market. The prices of the consumer goods have been soaring. The monitoring eyes are providing us with small details of the growing prices of the everyday essentials. We watch with frustration the escalation of prices of fish, meat, vegetables, grocery items and baby foods.
   Let us help ourselves by recounting the mood of the public over the last one year. By the end of 2005 the four-party alliance government lost its popularity mainly due to unmanageable sky rocketing prices of consumer items. The talk of the nation was the minimum price of coarse rice shooting up to Tk. 20 per kg. This badly hurt the vast majority of the people with limited income in general and the poor in particular. The government failed to arrest this trend. The then government denied the rising trend of the market by putting the blame on the media. Even the former prime minister remarked that the price spiral and crises in the market were the creation of the media.
   The market condition now is not good either. It is hard to accept the fact that this administration with so much of power and working under emergency has not been able to address the abnormal market situation. The other day the press secretary to the Chief Adviser (CA) told a press briefing that there was actually no fertilizer crisis in the country and that the farmers most of the time want more than they need. This reminds one of the identical statement made by a minister of the immediate past government to the press though none believed him.
   
   CA's honest admission
   While addressing a gathering at Barisal last Sunday the CA admitted the prevalence of 'price hike' in the market. He honestly said that it was not possible for the government alone to control the price hike or for that matter the market. He also mentioned that government cannot do business. He clearly implied that the private sector has got to do the job.
   We heard the then opposition parties, led by Awami League, clamour against the ministers and MPs of the then ruling party for their alleged involvement in "syndicated business". It was made to believe that certain syndicates -- formed by the alliance ministers, MPs and other stalwarts -- were controlling the market and deliberately creating crises, forcing the prices to shoot up thus making windfall profit.
    The media, both print and electronic, were agog with such reports; and TIB served us with another statistics saying Bangladesh finished a hat trick in topping the list of the most corrupt countries in the world. These and other stories made us all think of an alternative.
   The CG is the option, at least for the time being. The advisers should keep in mind that they are being looked upon with so much of hopes and expectation; and the common people have high regards for them. People do not know anything about the constitutional rights of this CG, nor will they question its legality in taking executive decisions and so on. They would like to see them as saviours. They would like to see an effective measure to help them buy edibles and other daily necessities at prices not beyond their purchasing capacity.
   If the CG wants to leave an imprint on the minds of the hapless people, it has to do a positive job by bringing the market under a fair system. For that a roadmap is necessary. The government machinery should try to reach the growers at the field level. It has to determine and monitor (through local officials) the needs of the farmers and provide them with necessary inputs, ensure proper utilisation of fertilizers, seeds etc, maintain strict monitoring throughout the growing period until the harvest, monitor selling of crops by the growers to the small buyers, carrying the goods to different markets of the country and bringing the local selling markets under strict vigilance. These are some of the pro-people steps the present government can take. It may be a bit difficult, but proper planning, determination and strict implementation will bring about a positive result.
   Moreover, stocking and hoarding rules should be studied and made pro-people. Stock making should not exceed a maximum of three months; hoarding practice of any kind should be dealt with severe punishment to the culprits. All (government and private) food warehouses should be under strong vigil and regular inspection. Anyone violating it would liable for punishment.

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Abed wins Kravis Prize

Holiday Desk

Fazle Hasan Abed, the founder of the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee BRAC), has been selected for the Henry R Kravis Prize in Leadership, an annual award administered by the Claremont McKenna College and The Kravis Leadership Institute in the United States.
   Abed will receive the award, second of its kind and worth $250,000, for 'his innovative work with BRAC in health, education and micro-finance', said a press release issued in Dhaka last Saturday.
   The selection committee for the prize includes Nobel laureate in economics Amartya Sen and former president of the World Bank James D Wolfensohn.
   The committee recognised Abed for showing extraordinary leadership in the non-profit sector. Under his leadership, BRAC grew over the past 35 years into one of the largest development organisations in the world, reaching more than 110 million people.
   Born in 1936, Fazle Hasan Abed was educated in Dhaka and London. In 1972, he founded BRAC, an organisation which operates across Bangladesh and beyond - in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Uganda and Southern Sudan.
   Abed has also got a number of national and international awards, including the Ramon Magsaysay Award (1980), UNICEF's Maurice Pate Award (1992), Olof Palme Award (2001), the Gates Award for Global Health (2004) and the UNDP Mahbub ul Haq Award for outstanding contribution to human development (2004).

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MNCs to develop two-thirds of oil reserves

New Iraqi oil law seen as cover
for total US control

Emad Mekay in Washington

The U.S.-backed Iraqi cabinet approved a new oil law last Monday that is set to give foreign companies the long-term contracts and safe legal framework they have been waiting for, but which has rattled labour unions and international campaigners who say oil production should remain in the hands of Iraqis.
   Independent analysts and labour groups have also criticised the process of drafting the law and warned that that the bill is so skewed in favour of foreign firms that it could end up heightening political tensions in the Arab nation and promote instability.
   For example, it specifies that up to two-thirds of Iraq's known reserves would be developed by multinationals, under contracts lasting for 15 to 20 years.
   This policy would represent a u-turn for Iraq's oil industry, which has been in the public sector for more than three decades, and would break from normal practice in the Middle East.
   According to local labour leaders, transferring ownership to the foreign companies would give a further pretext to continue the U.S. occupation on the grounds that those companies will need protection.
   Union leaders have complained that they, along with other civil society groups, were left out of the drafting process despite U.S. claims it has created a functioning democracy in Iraq. Under the production-sharing agreements provided for in the draft law, companies will not come under the jurisdiction of Iraqi courts in the event of a dispute, nor to the general auditor.
   The ownership of the oil reserves under this draft law will remain with the state in form, but not in substance, critics say. On Feb. 8, the labour unions sent a letter in Arabic to Iraqi President Jalal Talbani urging him to reconsider this kind of agreement.
   "Production-sharing agreements are a relic of the 1960s," said the letter, seen by IPS. "They will re-imprison the Iraqi economy and impinge on Iraq's sovereignty since they only preserve the interests of foreign companies. We warn against falling into this trap."
   Ewa Jasiewicz, a researcher at PLATFORM, a British human rights and environmental group that monitors the oil industry, told IPS in a phone interview from London that, "First of all, it hasn't been put together in any kind of democratic process... It's been put through a war and an occupation which in itself is a grotesquely undemocratic process."
   The law was prepared by a three-member Iraqi cabinet committee, dominated by the Kurds and the Shiites. It is now expected to be ratified by parliament because the powerful faction leaders in the government have cleared it. The first draft was seen only by the committee of the Iraqi technocrat who penned it, nine international oil companies, the British and the U.S. governments and the International Monetary Fund. The Iraqi parliament will get its first glimpse next week.
   Concerns about the process are compounded because of the ongoing disputes in Iraq over the legitimacy of the Iraqi cabinet and the Iraqi parliament, which have been constructed by the occupation-created governing council, which itself was created in 2004 along sectarian lines.
   In a speech earlier by Hassan Juma, head of the Iraqi Oil Labour Union, posted on the union's website, has called on the Iraqi government to consult with Iraqi oil experts and "ask their opinion before sinking Iraq into an ocean of dark injustice." The content of the law has also worried both international campaigners and local Iraqi groups who say that it puts Iraqi oil wealth firmly on the path to full privatisation.
   "The hydrocarbon law reflects the process of readying Iraq's oil for privatisation," said Jasiewicz. "Drafted in secret, shaped by foreign powers, non-transparent, undemocratic and forced through under military occupation." Jasiewicz said the law can be regarded as the economic goal of the war and occupation and that "it will be viewed by most Iraqis as not just illegitimate, but a war crime."
   Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a close ally of Washington, called the law "another founding stone in state-building. This law will guarantee for Iraqis, not just now but for future generations too, complete national control over this natural wealth," Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani has reportedly said.
   Initial drafts of the law starting eight months ago saw squabbles between the Kurdish factions who control the northern part of Iraq and the Shiite-led regime, as they both vied for bigger shares of the country's oil wealth, estimated at 115 billion barrels. That they have finally come to a final agreement may be a sign of long-sought stability. Yet critics, including Iraqi oil professionals, engineers and technicians in the unions, are instead advocating for technical service contracts, meaning a company would come in and offer services such as building a refinery, laying a pipeline, or offering consultancy services, get their fees and then leave.
   "It is a much more equitable relationship because the control of production, development of oil will stay with the Iraqi state," said Jasiewicz. "That is the model that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait generally operate. There's no other country in the Middle East with the kind of oil reserves that Iraq has that would consider signing a production-sharing agreement," she said. "It's a form of privatisation and that's why those countries haven't signed such as agreement because it's not in their interests.
   Courtesy: Inter Press Service

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The oblivious Bourbons

Mumtaz Iqbal

"They have learnt nothing; and forgotten nothing," said French statesman Talleyrand of the actions of the restored Bourbon monarchy in 1814 to bring back the "ancient regime," as if the French Revolution of 1789 had not happened. Something similar can be said about AL and BNP activities since the Emergency.
   AL and BNP understandably bristled when Yunus criticised politicians as being corrupt et al. Nobody likes being called a crook. But the parties' defence left something to be desired. AL general secretary Abdul Jalil and BNP secretary general Mannan Bhuiya protested not all politicians are crooked. Fair enough. Since then, many allegedly corrupt politicians have been arrested
   AL and BNP took the Solomonic decision that they will not provide legal assistance to their detained members, and punish those found guilty.
   To this, the English-language daily New Age in its 6 March editorial rightly riposted both parties have "moral responsibilities" and should suspend "many of their stalwarts" if the evidence against them is "compelling" without awaiting judicial verdict. Will the AL and BNP heed this suggestion?
   Both general secretaries insisted that there are many honest politicians. Their names and contributions, please.
   Both parties highlighting politicians' contribution during our liberation war is a red herring. Many groups other than politicians contributed too. But to claim a privileged place for politicians is gratuitous special pleading.
   Sure, politics is essential, as AL and BNP correctly repeat endlessly. But this misses the point. Politics as practiced by them in and out of power was ineffectual, and not what we want or deserve.
   The AL claims of being less venal than BNP isn't saying much. The AL so used and abused power that it lost public confidence and saw BNP win in 2001.
   Stung by the examples of the Janater Mancha and AL's packing of the EC and bureaucracy, the BNP overreached when in power and is paying the price for its indiscretions.
   But for Hasina to claim that it was the AL's exertions that checked BNP's machinations and paved the way for the Emergency is to exaggerate. Hartals; sleazy dealings (Ershad); opportunistic alliances (Khelafat Majlish); nominations flip-flop and call for prolonged resistance over 14-22 January brought the country to its knees.
   While BNP bears the larger share of blame, AL is no angel. It takes two to tango. The ladies' pursuit of personal vendettas must be a record worthy of inclusion in Guinness.
   
   Lack of remorse
   Having crucified the country, one would have expected AL and BNP leaders to show remorse. They have, sort of.
   BNP leaders such as Mannan Bhuiya and MK Anwar have expressed the need for self-criticism and deep reflection, even suggesting that a spell in the opposition would be cathartic.
   These statements show paltry remorse and continued arrogance. How dare the public deny them the right to rule? It's alleged that a relative of BNP chairperson lamented to one of the generals on their "ingratitude" to the BNP that had promoted them!
   If correct, this observation reveals BNP's twisted mindset to believe the army was its handmaiden. Hawa Bhavan soon realised it had misread the services core corporate interests, especially the slow burning fuse amongst the Young Turks and Africa veterans to BNP's misgovernance (and AL's irresponsibility).
   Neither Khaleda nor anointed successor son Tarique have expressed regrets over their own or party's deeds. Is this silence a desire to avoid self-incrimination?
   Excoriating BNP doesn't mean the AL behaved much better. It has made noises about reforms to make the party's working more collegial and less autocrtaic. Some AL stalwarts are beginning to find their voice. At the AL's Working Committee meeting on Sunday 4 March, most of the senior leaders reportedly criticised Hasina for taking decisions on critical issues 'without consulting party colleagues".
   If correct, then the party's cowed principals are questioning not only Hasina's unilateral leadership style, but also its substance, that is, her judgment, just like Republicans are questioning Bush's Iraq adventure. Overall, the AL should benefit from this development if maintained as its deliberations will be institutionalised. Hasina should clarify any plans she has to parachute her son Joy into politics and reveal his credentials . The public should know if AL opertaions will be dynasty-dominated.
   The 1962 NEFA debacle saw Indian parliament baying for Defence Minister Krishna Menon's blood. To defend his friend, Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru made his oft-repeated threat to resign. It didn't work. Some formerly deferential MPs were heard to mutter "so be it!" (Neville Maxwell-India's China War). Nehru died disillusioned in 1964. NEFA dilutes but doesn't detract from his greatness. The Chinese Communist Party's official assessment of Mao is 70 per cent right, 30 per cent wrong.
   Political deities have frailties. For politicians and posterity, performance is what matters. Nobody's indispensable. Hasina and Khaleda surely know these eternal truths. And yet they astonish by not apologising for fracturing the country. Both ladies should seriously consider apologising and let others start afresh. Otherwise, any remorse they show will be suspect. AL and BNP hubris is reflected in their fetish for early elections.
   
   Elections obsession
   That both parties are brothers under the skin is evident from their shrill call for early polls, by 30 June (AL) and 11 July (BNP). This is understandable. Elections legitimise political parties' path to power. Without elections, the funds AL and BNP have invested in campaigning are dead money. Worse, new contributions slow or dry up as donors become cautious. This erodes cadres' morale and poses an existential threat to the parties.
   Hasina wants early elections because she senses victory with BNP in disarray. She revealed her eagerness last Sunday when she showed reporters a sample of a ballot box that could be fabricated locally. It would have been fitting had she also suggested measures to ensure election results aren't fabricated!
   Hasina's silent on issues at the heart of fair elections such as candidates' qualifications; maximum election expenses; and auditing of candidates expenditure statements. She presumably wouldn't object to removal of duty-free car import privilege for MPs
   On party funding, she's mum. Bangladesh political parties routinely launder money. One AL candidate told me that he was asked to exchange the cheque he had obtained from wealthy donors for cash! Will AL-and BNP-agree to make their financing and expemditure more transparent by routing transactions through banks and filing financial statements?
   Hasina sent four ex-bureaucrats (three CSPs, one PFS) to parley with the three member EC. The BNP had two ex-CSPs in its delegation to CEC. Is this composition a tacit admission by AL and BNP of the low esteem of politicians and hence their relative ineffectiveness in dealing with thorny issues?
   Hasina's demand for early elections has challengers. Most senior AL Working Committee members reportedly disagreed with her demand for June elections. Some favoured giving the Fakhruddin government "some time" to implement reforms to make politics free from corruption and malpractices.
   Ershad and Oli Ahmed have distanced themselves from Hasina. Is the grand alliance unraveling?
   The French Bourbons wanted to put the clock back. The Bangladeshi Bourbons behave as if the good old days are just around the corner. Talleyrand's dictum will also apply to them unless they learn something and forget nothing.
   The author is a free lancer.

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THE BOTTOM LINE

Taher Quddus

A friend of mine who basically is a peace loving person asked me "Friend, what is happening? I am confused."
   "Why are you confused?"
   "The way people are being caught everyday, very soon there shall be none left."
   "Well, those people who had been indulging in criminal activities with impunity should be brought to task. We should encourage present authority for their patriotism. Nothing to be confused about."
   "No, that is fine. I am not confused about that. What I am confused about is how things started revolving from anti clockwise to clockwise."
   "We should be happy that the clock has started revolving in the correct direction."
   "That is true, but my fear is still churning my stomach. I am feeling very uneasy."
   "Calm down and be articulate. What is worrying you?"
   "Friend, tell me, are they going to catch every body? Then who shall be left out to run the affair of this country? After all these are the people who after spending huge amount of money volunteered to run the affairs of this country. If they go out of the scene who shall come to lead the ungrateful people like us?"
   "Haven't you seen how corrupt these volunteers had been? In the name of running the country and looking after our welfare they have been running their own affairs.
   They did not have an iota of patriotism in them or any feeling for the people of the country."
   "Difficult to believe, my friend! In the group there was a religious party too. These God fearing people could not have been with them, if they were so bad?"
   "God has sealed their ears, put veil on their eyes and nabbed their feelings. So they were comfortable with them."
   "You mean to say, after the present lot of physicians who have taken the responsibility of the country for curing the ailments, prescribe that we should now be of our own, then a new group of faces shall appear in the scene."
   "Absolutely correct. Incorruptible people shall appear and Bangladesh shall leap forward."
   "My friend that is precisely is my fear. Last year I went to Singapore on a business mission. One day in the evening I went to Arab Street for shopping. In that street most of the shops belonged to the merchants from Indian sub-continent. A shopkeeper asked me "Which country are you from?"
   "I am from Bangladesh."
   He said, "I am from India and doing business since last forty years."
   "You are lucky. You are living in such a beautiful country. Good governance, clean city, pure food, no crime, good education for children and good medical facilities for patients."
   The shopkeeper replied, "Brother don't say that, It is not as good as you are thinking. We are living in an 'Intensive Care Unit'. In this country you can't do anything. See, I have taken a 'chewing gum' but I don't know where to through it. For last one hour I am holding in my hand. If a piece of paper flies away from the shop all salesmen shall runs after that. The roads must be clean. Any body who litters shall be punished. You can't through a cigarette end anywhere you like. I keep those in my pocket and clean those at home. Brother how long can you stay in an ICU?"
   My friend looked at me and said "Is Bangladesh going to be an ICU? If so shall we be able to live in an ICU with all our bad habits of so many years?"
   "Well if that happens we shall be lucky. Thanks to Dr. Fakruddin Ahmed MBBS in-charge of Bangladesh ICU. Take your time, one year, two years, three years or as long as you wish but clean the mess."

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