Asjadul Kibria

Over the years, budget-making in Bangladesh has been significantly influenced by the neo-liberal economic policy-a set of agendas that promotes free trade and open market with drastic reduction of the state's role in economic activities.
   The budget for fiscal year 2007-08 (FY08), proposed in a singular context, in absence of parliament, by Finance Adviser Dr Mirza Azizul Islam is not an exception but rather a consolidation of that policy backed by the international financial institutions.
   Having a huge outlay of Tk 87,137 crore, the interim finance minister has also goes with a bigger deficit financing worth Tk 29,836 crore. There is, however, a juggling as the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporations' liability worth Tk 7523 crore is excluded from the 'total expenditure' and 'bank borrowing' as it is being financed as Non-Cash Bond.
   The budget envisages a development spending of Tk 28,522 crore and non-development expenditures amounting to Tk 52,900 crore. The Annual Development Programme, a major part of the development expenditure, has been proposed at Tk 26,500 crore.
   The jumbo budget has little to cheer the majority of the population living at the lower end. One, however, cannot blame the interim government for that, as it is the current trend.
   Nevertheless, the revision of import tariff structure has actually favoured trading activities instead of small and medium enterprises, which are key to employment generation. Keeping the highest tariff rate for finished products unchanged at 25 per cent, the government has increased the import tariff rate of basic industrial raw materials to 10 per cent from 5 per cent. The tariff on intermediate goods has also been increased to 15 per cent. These steps clearly imply the budget is going to put extra pressures on the emerging local industries.
   The government has completely withdrawn the 4 per cent infrastructure development surcharge. Merger of two slabs of 15 per cent and 25 per cent supplementary duties into a single slab of 20 per cent has, however, been seen as a positive move.
   One can tally the fiscal measures with the previous administrative activities of the government in the last few months. The unplanned anti-hording drive has disrupted the commodity supply chain and ruthless demolition of small business set-ups in the name of destroying illegal infrastructures are two examples that the government finally acknowledged as wrong steps.
   The overall budget deficit has been estimated at Tk 25,581 crore, of which Tk 19,276 crore will be financed by domestic borrowings and the remaining Tk 6,305 crore from external loans. Aziz is hopeful to keep the deficit at 5.6 per cent of the GDP, which appears unrealistic considering the Tk 7,523 crore deficit arising in the budget from the accumulated loss of the state-run BPC. The finance adviser, however, assured that this would not create 'any immediate additional fiscal liabilities' and 'exert any negative impact on private sector credit'. Nonetheless, deficit financing plan will again push up the inflationary pressure as the government in this case mainly relies on high-powered money. Inflation rate has already crossed the 8 per cent level in April.
   Mirza Aziz also has proposed Tk 57,301 crore as total revenue receipts, of which Tk 45,838 crore will come from domestic revenues and Tk 4,255 crore from external sources. The National Board of Revenue sources will contribute Tk 43,850 crore of the domestic revenue earnings.
   With further liberalisation of external trade regime, the finance adviser needs to stress on the domestic sources to reach the revenue target or the nearest to it. Thus he has given the tax authorities some upper-hand in tax collection.
   There are actually few budgetary steps to combat inflation as the budget gives no sign of revitalising the state-owned Trading Corporation of Bangladesh and similar agencies. Rather the finance adviser has chosen to combat inflation by adversely affecting the livelihoods and incomes of the local industrial community.
   Withdrawing indirect fiscal provisions to whiten black money by purchasing land, apartment or car with a fixed tax is a welcome move. But black money is a flow, not a stock. So, plugging the exit point is not enough, without adequately putting caps on the entry points.

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WSJ derides custodial deaths, jailing of 2 lakh people, polls delay in Bangladesh

Fazle Rashid in New York

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in a front page story on Bangladesh that covered almost a whole page under the heading "Army Takeover in Bangladesh Stalls Key Muslim Democracy" with sub-heading "US, UN-backed move to prevent flawed vote; mass jailing in Dhaka", said that the army-backed Caretaker Government is back-pedalling on its pledge to organise a quick and clean vote. The WSJ was critical of jailing an estimated 200,000 people. It also said Human Rights groups alleged that people arrested in the middle of the night have been tortured to death.
   The WSJ quoted the Chief of Army Staff General Moeen U Ahmed as saying: "We do not want to go back to an elective democracy where corruption is all-pervasive and where political criminalisation threatens the survival and integrity of the state".
   US involvement in South Asia suffered a serious setback when India, Washington's new found ally, refused to agree on a point in the nuclear deal that says US will halt cooperation if India tests a nuclear weapon. However, US interest in three South Asian nations like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh is becoming evident in varying degrees.
   The ongoing and escalating political crisis in Pakistan is testing Bush administration's unconditional support for Parvez Musharraf amid popular unrest and re-emergence of legitimate opposition leaders seeking to end his seven-year military dictatorship. The chorus in Washington for distancing itself from the military dictator is growing and demand for engaging the opposition is mounting.
   The United States has been the richest and most powerful nation in the world for almost a century; over these decades it was sometimes admired, feared and occasionally even loved, writes Fareed Zakaria in the latest issue of Newsweek magazine. The problem today is not that America is too strong but that it is seen as too arrogant, uncaring and insensitive, says. Fareed Zakaria and adds "Countries around the world believe that the United States --- obsessed with its own notions of terrorism --- has stopped listening to the rest of the world."
   In the 19 months that is left of the Bush presidency, it will try to improve its global image.
   
   State Department
   US State Department, arguably the most powerful, influential and crucial decision setting agency of the world, is facing an acute staff crisis. Influential Foreign Affairs Council (FAC), an organisation made up of retired American Ambassadors and diplomats which scrutinises US diplomacy and State Department management, disclosed that as many as 200 existing jobs mostly for posting abroad remains vacant and an additional 900 training slots to provide essential language skills and other expertise have not been filled, says an AFP story carried by the New York Times last Wednesday.
   The NYT says, FAC puts the blame on the door of the Secretary of State Condi Rice. All new 1069 positions and increased allocations for the Department have been utilised in Iraq, Afghanistan and other difficult posts. Thomas Boyatt, President of FAC, was quoted as saying: "My own view is that the foreign service is at front edge of a personnel crisis, and if something isn't done about what we have identified here as job No 1 we are going to be in a very serious situation a year or so from now". The State Department dismissed the report as 'armchair quarter-backing'. FAC said Secretary Rice as to bear responsibility for the crisis.
   
   Libby's clemency?
   Lewis Libby, former chief of staff of Vice-President Dick Cheney and one of principal architects of US foreign policy, was sentences to 30 months in prison for lying and obstructing justice in a CIA leak case involving the wife of a former US ambassador. Her name was leaked. Libby supporters who include very influential figures like Dr. Henry Kissinger increased their pressure on White House to grant him clemency. The White House said it was not thinking on that line for the moment.
   If Libby goes to jail he will be the first highest ranking official since the Watergate scandal to serve jail sentence. President Bush who is travelling Europe prior to the beginning of Group 8 summit meeting in Germany, expressed sympathy for Libby and his family. Republicans have been perplexed by White House's refusal to grant Libby a clemency. President Bush so far pardoned more than 100 people all of them are obscure persons.
   Among Libby's top supporters are Henry Kissinger, Gen. Richard Mayers, former Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Donald Rumsfeld, ousted defence secretary, Gen. Peter Pace incumbent chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, James Woolsey former director of CIA, James Wolfensohn and Paul Wolfowitz, former and present World Bank President praised Libby and want clemency be given to him.
   Tailpiece:
   Sheikh Hasina is enjoying relatively more freedom than others. She seems to be moving around without any restriction. Making political speeches often berating the government for delaying the polls and equating mega thieves of the BNP with 'saints' of her party. She expressed surprise over depositions made by Jalil and Selim coming out in print. That is the beauty of objective journalism. Many classified news items are leaked to the media by unknown sources but privy to the news. Is Hasina a part of Indo-US strategy for Bangladesh that gives her an edge over others and the administration deliberately allowing her more liberty?

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Hasina's desperate battle
cry stems from vulnerability

Sadeq Khan

Sheikh Hasina has thrown a veritable challenge to the caretaker government. She has coined the battle-cry, no representation no taxation, and challenged the legality of promulgation of a full-scale budget by decree. She said the caretaker government was entitled to work out and enact only a provisional finance bill and budget, as was done in 1996 to cover up the gap of two months after expiry of the budget year and the ensuing of successor parliament. She said the Constitution requires every budget to be passed by people's representatives.
   On account of the state of emergency, the gap from the budgeted fiscal yearend to the next parliamentary elections is likely to exceed one year and probably most part of another year. It is therefore an evident state necessity to promulgate two annual budgets, if necessary, by presidential decree. The President is constitutionally empowered to make any enactment, including finance bill, by ordinance in the absence of parliament. The President, along with the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the dissolved parliament also continue as the living link of people's representation in the gap between two elected parliaments, however extended that gap could be.
   Sheikh Hasina's veiled threat of non-cooperation movement refusing taxation by "illegitimate" authority therefore would have little constitutional force, let alone popular backing. The present interim government is sustained by uninterrupted constitutional continuity and by evident popular support. The earlier threat by Sheikh Hasina that "people" would not "tolerate" the blackening of her public image by revelation of misdeeds in running her party machine while in government and in opposition has proven empty.
   The government in announcing the budget has also taken the unusual step of putting it on the web for open discussion and input of opinions and recommendations to be sent by filling up a feedback form by 5pm, June 14, or by writing to be sent directly by mail. All opinions and recommendations have been promised to be considered and measures promised to be taken reflecting the suggestions and recommendations. The final budget proposals arrived at in this process would then be promulgated by an ordinance and come into force by the end of June.
   Popular participation and acceptance of the budget, notwithstanding sectoral reservations, is therefore likely to be more solid than in the past, and Sheikh Hasina's threat will be of little consequence. The desperation of that threat appears to be arising from her vulnerability to prosecution arising from revelations made by her party's general secretary, Abdul Jalil, under interrogation of the task forces.
   Abdul Jalil revealed that his 'Trump Card" gaffe, i.e. the 2004 April 30 ploy to topple the government was planned by Awami League President Sheikh Hasina herself. The BNP MP Abu Hena, a former civil servant and member of the National Board of Revenue, felt insulted when he was not made a minister and was furious with BNP and went to meet Sheikh Hasina. He offered to buy 70 MPs from BNP for Awami League. At the same time, Mahi B Chowdhury offered to buy 20 to 25 MPs. Hena asked Hasina for 70 crore taka for the purpose and she assured him she would arrange it. She gave the responsibility of arranging these funds to Abdul Awal Mintoo. It was decided that Abdul Awal Mintoo, Yusuf Abdullah Haroun, Nurul Islam Babul, and Saber Hossain Chowdhury would arrange the money. Mintoo corroborated Jalil's story to intelligence officers.
   Jalil said Hasina had only given him the responsibility of organising the field-level movement to render the April 30 plan a success. The responsibility of arranging the money and other matters were undertaken by Hasina herself and Saber Hossain Chowdhury. Hasina wanted to carry out the MP purchase deal herself. "Proshika's Kazi Faruq had committed to gather 10 lakh people in the city. Hasina gave Saber the responsibility of maintaining communications with Kazi Faruq. Former mayor Mohamed Hanif and Maya Chowdhury were angry that Proshika was contracted for gathering people. Hanif and Maya later pulled back from any endeavour to mobilise party workers in the capital city. Proshika too failed to arrange the crowds. The whole plan flopped." That was the sad commentary by Awami League general secretary Abdul Jalil to the interrogating team.
   Former FBCCI president Abdul Awal Mintoo confirmed to the interrogating officers, "Hasina was the leader of the April 30 deadline given by Abdul Jalil. Jalil was the collaborator. Hena MP was also involved. The main aim was to create chaos and topple the BNP-led four-party alliance government."
   This is a grave allegation of conspiracy against the constitutional order that the Awami League chief Shiekh Hasina will have to answer, apart from the corruption charges and instigations of mob violence. Her desperation is hardly going to help the situation, and any attempt at adventurism or provocation will not sell.

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Special Correspondent

Many eyebrows continue to be raised as scores of criminal and extortion cases have been filed against the country's prominent leaders from both sides of the political divide --- Awami League and BNP. It is apparent that most of the complainants are now taking the chance of revenge against certain politicians to demolish their public image.
   
   Khaleda, Nizami, 26 others
   A case was filed on Tuesday against BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia, Jamaat Ameer Maulana Matiur Rahman Nizami and other 26 front ranking leaders of the 4-party alliance. They have been accused of involvement in the August 21, 2004 grenade attack on Awami League rally in Dhaka city that left 21 people dead including Ivy Rahman, president of the party's women wing.
   Badar Azizuddin, an Awami League activist of Cox's Bazar, who now lives at Demra, filed the case in the Dhaka CMM court. Claiming to have been injured in the attack, Azizuddin said the accused had launched the attack in a bid to murder Sheikh Hasina as she was vocal against the misdeeds of the government and threatened to oust it through a mass movement.
   Police and intelligence agencies have long investigated into the tragic incident. Joj Mia, held by police, was the first suspect to admit his involvement in the grenade attack. After many months Mufti Hannan, chief of Harqatul Jihad, was taken into custody from his Badda residence in Dhaka city. Battle-hardened Afghan war veteran of the 80s Mufti also reportedly confessed to the police of launching the grenade attack.
   
   Joy's confession
   A recent Indian press report said that Tanvirul Islam Joy, a top terrorist of Bangladesh who had fled to Kolkata, was arrested. Joy confessed to the Kolkata Police Commissioner of his complicity in the grenade attack on Awami League rally in 2004.
   Three different ideological bigots have admitted of committing the crime. And now came Azizuddin to accuse political bigwigs of BNP-led 4-party alliance.
   It is apparent from the statement of Sheikh Hasina on Wednesday that she did not appreciate the case of Azizuddin. She expressed doubt if he is an activist of his party. "We have provided medical treatment to all those party activists wounded in the grenade blasts. I don't think his name was there."
   This case will definitely confuse the whole nation if not the intelligence agencies investigating the incident.
   
   Kamal Ibne Yusuf
   The case against former minister Chowdhury Kamal Ibne Yusuf, son of Yusuf Ali Chowdhury (Mohan Mia), in Faridpur is yet another conspicuous example the authenticity of which is evidently incredible. Sheikh Ahsanul Haq Alam accused 11 people including Kamal Ibne Yusuf and five senior officials of the district of demolishing 10 under-construction shops on his land back in 2001. According to officials, Alam had illegally occupied the government land and was constructing shops. He was dislodged from the government khas land.
   
   Tanveer Siddiqi
   An extortion case was filed in a court at Gazipur against Chowdhury Tanveer Ahmed Siddiqi. Tanveer, a BNP leader long away from the corridors of power, comes from a famous aristocratic Zamindar family of Baliadi. Analysts say that even his political rivals are not inclined to believe that a personality of Tanveer's stature can ever resort to extortion or Chandabaji. The court took cognizance of complaint and sent it to Kaliakoir police station for investigation and legal action.
   It is interesting to note that the complainant of the case Mujibur Rahman Yeasin himself is a co-accused of forgery and land grabbing case. A retired army official filed the case against Rahmat Ali, a former Awami League MP, and Yeasin, a central leader of Krishak League and former Union Parishad chairman. Many people doubt about the integrity of Yeasin and term the allegation of extortion against Tanveer "a farce and nonsense", said a local journalist.
   On filing the case a few days ago, the district and sessions judge Abdul Majid issued warrant of arrest against Kamal Ibne Yusuf without hearing the accused, which has astonished the lawyers. Realising the error of judgement Judge Abdul Majid suo motto retracted his order of warrant of arrest within the next two days. Kamal Ibne Yusuf is well known for his wealthy aristocratic family and his deceased father Mohan Mia, a renowned and respected political leader of the country since 1940s. Like his father, Kamal Ibne Yusuf is known for his integrity and commitment to the nation. Many people in Faridpur town say that Kamal as President of the Bus Owners' Association had expelled Sheikh Ahsanul Haq Alam about a decade ago. Since then he has been seeking an opportunity to take revenge.

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Elusive budgetary expectations

Economic afflictions warrant unconventional remedies

M Shahidul Islam

The nation is witnessing the first-ever full-year budget declaration by an interim government. A budget being the tentative roadmap (or blueprint) of the real and predicted earnings and expenditures of the government, the upheavals spurred by the imposition of emergency and the vagaries relating to global geopolitics have made the task of making a balanced and realistic budget for 2007-2008 much more difficult.
   That is why the expectations and the allocations outlined in the current budget may prove illusory; not because the total allocation of Taka 67,816 crore (which was Taka 64,383 crore in the last fiscal) seems grandiose, the choices of the government are constricted, and sources of earning remain susceptible to greater risks and shifting variables.
   Besides, the ailments of the economy are more serious in nature than that meet the eye. An effective remedy to such ailments lies in providing unconventional solutions to the problems, with full appreciation of specific needs.
   Why? One of the most debilitating drawbacks of declaring a budget in the absence of a parliament is the inability of the budget planners to impose new taxes. That leads to reduced revenue earnings and can further exacerbate the existing economic woes amidst the swooping inflationary pressures caused by a number of domestic and international factors. Economists fear the inflation to shoot up to two-digit level, unless prices of essential commodities can be reined in soon. Higher inflation will increase the cost of borrowing and deter entrepreneurship and employability.
   In any market economy, inflation cannot be abated unless the supply of essential commodities is increased and production and other incidental costs of goods and services are reduced. This may need injection of subsidy in specific sectors of the economy, not withdrawal of it, as is being advocated by the World Bank.
   While chronic power shortage is bound to hamper domestic production of goods and services further, the overall macroeconomic scenario is also likely to change for the worse due to reduced import earnings. A recent BGMEA survey has found that a total of 338 garment factories have already closed, of which 238 are located in Dhaka and the remaining 100 in Chittagong. The scenario in other industrial sectors is even worse.
   Internally, the emergency-related rigours have already imposed a drag on the overall growth, prompting experts to predict that the GDP may not grow at a rate much above 6 per cent while public expenditures will further reduce due to the fund-crunch caused by revenue shortfall and reduced inflow of earnings from other expected sources. About one-third of the economy being black market-related, ill-gotten money are no more in circulation and much of it is heading out of the country. The government must move aggressively to bring back black money into the circulation under a realistic programme.
   The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on May 1 faulted the government for its over-estimated projection of the GDP growth for the current fiscal at 6.51 per cent. "We think the GDP growth would really be around 6 per cent. It could not be 6.5 per cent due to significant fall in agriculture, poultry and construction sectors," cautioned CPD, adding the government would face a major challenge to spiral back the hiking prices of essentials in fiscal 2007-08.
   Similar predictions are being made by other economists as revenue deficiency reached over Taka 5,780 crore during the first 10 months of the last fiscal, registering a growth of only 8.84 per cent against the predicted 21 per cent. Ongoing political crisis leading to the emergency is blamed for much of the shortfall.
   Consequently, public deficit financing reached Taka 8,724 crore during the first seven months of the last fiscal, of which Taka 1,004 crore came from foreign sources and Taka 3,300 crore were locally collected. This led public borrowing to skyrocket to Taka 5,506 crore during the first seven months of FY2006-07, which was only Taka 1,784 crore during the same period in 2005-2006.
   Although the balance of payment in the first nine months (until March 31) of the last fiscal reportedly registered a $812 million surplus, boosted mainly by a 26 per cent rise in the remittance (totalling $4.9 billion) and another 20.21 per cent increase in exports (totalling $9.03 billion), the mainstay of the export, RMG, has already witnessed a 15 per cent reduction in receivable orders from buyers, points out the latest BGMEA survey. International buyers are wary of interruptions in timely production due to chronic electricity supply shortfall and rationing of power across the board. Orders are going to the Far Eastern countries, instead.
   Another major concern stems from the trend of stymied development, caused largely by drags and delays in the implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP). ADP alone constitutes a huge chunk of the GDP growth and, 51 per cent of this year's ADP is slated to come from the government's own coffers (with 49 per cent from external finance). This is not only ambitious but seems surrealistic.
   The FY2006-2007 ADP has not achieved even 50 per cent success and the expectation of the government to obtain over $1.2 billion aid in 2007-2008 is a chimera. All indications show it will be a tough slog for the government to mobilise both the domestic and external resources to finance the pending projects. Besides, the current ADP is much bigger in size, Taka 26,500 crore, which is Taka 4,900 crore more than the last ADP.
   Added together, both components of the budget (ADP included) make the 2007-2008 allocations bigger by Taka 8,333 crore than the 2006-2007 budgets. The figure may seem in sync with the increased inflation, but the government will face hurdles in garnering domestic resources at a time of shrinking revenues and reduced inflow of foreign aid, which had already dropped by 2 per cent during the last fiscal to $909 millions, according to the Economic Relations Division data.
   Based on the trends, both public and private investments are likely to reduce further during FY2007-2008, resulting in further unemployment and reduced demands for goods and services. Only an influx of huge foreign direct investment (FDI) and a quantum leap in export and remittance earnings can compensate partly for those negativities.
   Fortunately, the World Bank (WB), considered one of the main external sponsors of the current administration, has released another instalment of $200 million of its policy-tagged loans, which, according to the finance adviser, will help balance the book to a great extent.
   While the WB-injected funds offer the only silver lining in a cloud-laden economic horizon, political uncertainty and the state of emergency might already have negative impacts on the FDI flow, which fell by a staggering 24 per cent, registering only $385 million, in July 2006-March 2007.
   Despite the release of the $200 million loan, the WB is pressuring the government to stop subsidising the power generation and other vital sectors of the economy. If the economy has to be welfare-driven, as opposed to being purely capital-driven, subsidies must not only stay where they are but more is needed to bring equilibrium in the already destabilised economic life of the nation.
   Look differently: A loan is a loan and its usefulness depends on whether the money can be used in the most productive manner and paid back without defaulting. A borrowed amount cannot be construed to have increased the gross national income. Rather, every added borrowing reduces the nation's credit ratings substantially by negatively impacting on the debt-GDP ratio. The nation will be rated as poorer than before due to the predicted GDP reduction and increased borrowing, both internal and external.
   A more realistic scenario indicates that the ongoing energy crisis may cause a bang in employability and export, compelling the government to borrow further to meet its budgetary targets and thus avoid an impending economic disaster. The problem is: More borrowing could lead to a greater danger for the economy as, in principle, external debt should not exceed 40 per cent of the GNP, or 200 per cent of exports, and, the debt service ratio (the ratio of debt service to exports) should not exceed 25 per cent.
   The first two rules amount to the same thing for a country which exports 20 per cent of its GNP and they are consistent with the third when debt service (interest plus amortisation) costs 12.5 per cent of the debt each year. In 2006, the nation's public debt stood at 46.7 per cent of the GDP, or $32.23 billion, of which $22.55 billion were external.
   Based on such calculations, the nation's economic stewards have to find for themselves where the economic health of the country lies and apply unconventional and home-grown remedies accordingly, instead of biting too much onto the WB prescriptions.
   The government is, therefore, urged to move the economy towards more welfare-related schemes and work diligently and aggressively to increase exports by ensuring a smooth functioning and preserving the competitiveness of the export-related industries. At the same time, efforts must be made to draw as much FDI as can be humanly possible from sources that are national interest-friendly and politically less sensitive to public perceptions.

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Colombo's ex-army, air chiefs
decry Indian advice

Sunil Jayasiri

Former commanders of Sri Lankan Army and Air Force came down hard on India last Friday over comments made by the Indian National Security Adviser that Sri Lanka should not seek weapons from Pakistan or China.
   Former Sri Lankan Army chief Hamilton Wanasinghe said India should not tell Sri Lanka from where it should purchase military hardware or not. It is Sri Lanka's choice, so the request is 'unfair'," General Wanasinghe who commanded the Army from 1988 to 1991 told the Daily Mirror.
   Praising Pakistan and China for their continued support to Sri Lanka, the former army chief also said we had to depend on Pakistan and China at critical points of time in the past. "We can't antagonise those two countries, as they were there when we needed them." Accusing neighbouring India of creating Sri Lanka's conflict, the former army commander said India was partly responsible for creating the problem for us. "The LTTE was created by India. That's the truth," he said.
   Meanwhile, former Air Force chief Air Vice-Marshal Harry Gunatilake said Sri Lanka had the freedom to go to any country to purchase weapons.
   Claiming that it was a good thing that Sri Lanka first went to India to seek weapons, Air Vice-Marshal Gunatilake said: "Though India does not like to give defensive weapons to us, we had the decency to inform India. However, we have the right to go elsewhere and buy what we want."
   Addressing the media in Chennai, India's National Security Adviser M K Narayanan said: "We are a big power in the region. We don't want the Sri Lankan government to go to Pakistan or China. Whatever may be its requirement, the Sri Lankan government should come to us. However, India will not provide weapons with offensive capabilities to Sri Lanka."
   Justifying why India provided radars to the Sri Lankan government, Narayanan said, "Radars are seen as a defensive capability. Hence, we have provided the Sri Lankan government with them."
   Courtesy: Daily Mirror, London

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Charade, masquerade and parade

Mumtaz Iqbal

Perform or perish is the iron logic of survival for state and non-state actors. This means understanding one's operating environment and adapting appropriately when it changes.
   This can produce startling, even contradictory, results. Thus, communists in the PRC can take credit rightly for the country's robust economic progress. But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has atrophied. How the CCP reinvents itself is worth watching.
   Against this backdrop, how have our two main political parties performed since January 11? The answer: Poorly, in a mix of charade and masquerade.
   
   Charage
   The actions of Awami League and BNP and their leaders Hasina and Khaleda have ranged between the farcical and the conventional. Like the 19th century French Bourbons, they have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
   Hit by a tsunami generated in no small measure by their poor political performance over many years, the parties could have done two things.
   First, express remorse for letting down the country. Saying sorry would be a start.
   Second, become reflective, analyse what went wrong and develop suitable remedies in tune with the times.
   Instead, both ladies shrilly parrot the same demands-early elections-and pontificate endlessly that there can be no democracy without politicians or political parties.
   The latter is obvious but misses the point. We can do without the infantile politics, opportunistic parties and unprincipled politicians of the past 15 years.
   AL and BNP deliberately evade these issues. They prefer to burrow their heads like ostriches deeper into the sands of irrelevance, and compound this mistake by marketing a defective product already rejected by consumers.
   Nothing illustrates this tragic truth than the two ladies' recent statements.
   On May 17, Hasina observed that the nation is "suffocating" because "politics is banned...people deprived of political rights...right to express opinion." True enough.
   But this observation contains no hint of regret. Instead, she gives herself a clean bill of health.
   Hasina should be woman enough to admit the AL's shortcomings that contributed to ushering in this oxygen-starved atmosphere (emergency) which, despite its bad smell, the public can probably tolerate for a few more months.
   In any event, this "suffocation" is arguably less onerous than the scenario which was unfolding last January when increasingly irrational AL and BNP demanded threatened asphyxiation.
   With customary bravado, Hasina vows to sacrifice her life to establish people's rights. Having tasted her leadership, most probably prefer she quits her job rather than this world!
   Hasina rightly demands proper treatment of arrested AL General Secretary Jalil to ensure his welfare. Did she (and Khaleda) consider the country's welfare when they sponsored hartals and mocked parliament?
   Unrealistic as were Hasina's observations, Khaleda managed to upstage her.
   Speaking to newsmen on May 25, Khaleda claimed that "...her party does not practise politics of dynasty." Really?
   The arrests of numerous BNP leaders suggest she was the Dona of a criminal mafia disguised as a government. Khaleda's bizarre comment betrays an arrogance which is unworthy of a national leader.
   
   Masquerade
   Since "The prospect of hanging concentrates the mind wonderfully" (Samuel Johnson), the discredited AL and BNP have talked about reforms. But their attempts are pathetic in substance and pace.
   The AL on organisational matters talks about identity cards and changing the procedure for nominating parliamentary candidates. On financial transparency, it's written to four western missions asking for data on how their governments fund political parties! The latter is rubbish and mere dilatory tactics.
   What the AL (as well as BNP) should do is to declare how it raised and spent money-almost entirely in cash-in the past and how it proposes to make this more transparent, e.g. having a proper set of books and bank accounts to record the fund flow. What is required is internal motivation and will, not external technical assistance.
   AL at least has made token gestures of reforms. BNP has not done even that. Various BNP leaders talk at cross-purposes about the content and extent of reforms, revealing deep internal party divisions.
   Oddly enough, AL and BNP have pledged they would start reforms once the restrictions on indoor politics go. This is a lame excuse masquerading as good intentions.
   There is no reason why both the party leaders, especially Hasina, can't empanel a group to identify the reforms needed and how these are to be implemented. This requires a change in their mindset.
   Thus, the party will no longer be treated as a family proprietorship but as a corporate entity with stakeholders where merit, not money or muscle, prevails. In other words, ditch dynastic politics, institutionalise the political process.
   If family considerations are to play a part then let the parties follow the Singapore model. The current PM Lee Hsien, son of the legendary Lee Kwan, only got this position after a three-decade apprenticeship in which he had to prove himself in increasingly tough jobs.
   Perhaps this is asking too much from our politicians. But Hasina can set an example by clarifying Joy's role. Is his stewardship of the US Bangabandhu Foundation a stepping stone to his subsequent parachuting into Bangladesh domestic politics?
   No such assurance is required from Khaleda. Her sons, unlike their father, used the BNP cover to enrich themselves. Her silence on their alleged criminal activities, and of other BNP leaders, is deeply disturbing.
   It's lonely at the top-that's the price of leadership. People must have confidence in their leaders. Hasina and Khaleda have fatally compromised the confidence they enjoyed. It's time they left and not follow the naval tradition of going down with their sinking, stinking ships.
   Nobody's indispensable. The ladies' departure may deepen party confusion. But alternative leaders will arise just as night follows day.
   AL and BNP are strong political brand names indelibly linked to Hasina's father and Khaleda's husband, respectively. If the ladies want to salvage these brands and their family honour, they should allow fresh blood to deal with the post-1/11 challenges.
   
   Parade
   Perform or perish applies even more forcefully to the interim government. So far, the overworked, largely invisible civilians have functioned without doing anything drastically dysfunctional or disreputable.
   Nobody can blame the administration for the power shortage. But justifiably there's grumbling about rising prices. The authorities must frame and implement programmes, through the budget and other means, which will contain the Achilles heel of inflation in the short run and provide power relief in the long. Otherwise, the ongoing slow but sure erosion of the conditional goodwill it enjoys will accelerate.
   The government's distinctive achievement is action against corruption, where the services have taken and held the initiative. Recent media leaks of the purported statements by some arrested politicians and officials shock but don't surprise. Long ago people stopped believing in their integrity.
   But, in cleaning the house, the cleaners, like Caesar's wife, must be above suspicion and seen to be so. Leaders in power must set high standards and lead by good examples. Denial, austerity and even mild asceticism are sound principles to follow (e.g. Ziaur Rahman). Charity begins at home. A commander looks after the welfare of his men before his own. These principles were compromised in the recent promotion of the top brass of the three armed services. It's the timing, not the act, of promotion that's problematic (underscoring supplied).
   Had these taken place after credible elections returned civilians to power, people would not have minded.
   But to do it within four months of the emergency is premature. Citing the services' size for the promotions isn't tenable.
   India has an army of 1.1 million, Pakistan 0.55 million and Bangladesh 0.11 million (The Military Balance 2005-06). And yet all three armies now have identical command structures: a four-star general as chief with the principal staff officers at AHQ being Lt. Generals.
   The promotions regrettably lower the esteem the public has for the services, especially when such benefits seep downwards (remember Ershad?).
   Kurmitola currently enjoys the mandate of heaven (Chinese proverb). To retain it, the services and their civilian allies have to work twice as hard post-promotion to deliver the promised goods quickly and effectively under their sacred unwritten compact with the people.
   Are they up to it?
   Performance and image matter. The proof of the pudding always lies in the eating.
   The author is a freelancer.

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Glimpses of the Great

President Rodham?

K Z Islam

Throughout the Clinton's White House years, Hillary drew ridicule for her constantly changing hairstyle. One day she sported a flip, next day a French twist, then a ponytail, followed by a pouf or perhaps a bob. Short hair, long hair, blonde hair, brown hair; natural or highlighted, straight or curly - Hillary's ever-changing styles made her look a little fickle, but the eccentricity did the Clintons no great harm - until she faced the challenge of selling herself, not her husband, to the voters. She didn't look professional, didn't look like a serious candidate. She needed to look like a senator - and a senator from New York, not Arkansas. She needed a consistent image. Her handlers understood the urgency of stabilising her looks. So, they came up with an acceptable new hairdo that would be seen every day. Since 1999, Hillary has always worn an attractive, stable, short, blonde bob. No more bad hair days, ever.
   But the makeover went far beyond just Hillary's hair. Her wardrobe simply wasn't suitable for the image of a senator from New York. The jarring colors and strange styles, so foreign to the sophisticated Big Apple fashion world, were quickly relegated to the back of plaid jackets, the hats and thick black stockings. In their place came the new Hillary costume: black pantsuit with alternating blouses of blue, pink, and white. Occasionally, for a slight change, there was a blue sweater tied around her neck. Day after day, throughout the campaign and for the next several years, Hillary wore the uniform. At night and for big occasions like the Democratic convention, she was bold and wore a turquoise pantsuit with matching contact lenses. Thus was born the look of the Hillary Brand - a well-groomed, professionally dressed, New York candidate. She was ready for prime time at last.
   But Hillary's looks aren't the only thing that was transformed. Over the years, she's changed a lot more - her name, for example. In an awkward battle between her feminist self-image and the political needs of the moment, she's switched from Hillary Rodham to Hillary Clinton to Hillary Rodham Clinton; now, finally, she has become just plain Hillary. After the Clintons were married in 1975 and during Bill's first term as governor, she never used the Clinton name. This offended many Arkansans, especially when she sent out Chelsea's birth announcements with the parents named as Governor Bill Clinton and Hillary Rodham. In 1980, after Bill was defeated, in part because of voter animosity toward Hillary, she reluctantly became Hillary Rodham Clinton. Then in 1991, when her husband first ran for president, she dropped the Rodham and started calling herself Hillary Clinton. Once he was elected, she immediately made a formal announcement to the press that she was now to be called Hillary Rodham Clinton. Eight years later, when she ran for the Senate and wanted to establish herself as an independent politician and to distance herself from the tarnished Clinton name, she became "Hillary." No last name. Just plain Hillary.
   And it may be that we haven't seen the last of her name changes. If Hillary is elected president, don't be surprised to see a press release explaining that, as of noon on January 20, 2009, the woman you expected to see become the second President Clinton will expect to be addressed as "President Rodham". My money is on President Rodham.

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Road to democracy: Tough and uneven

A. K. Faezul Huq

Barrister Mainul Hosein, the learned adviser for law, perhaps became too emotional [and somewhat absent-minded too] the other day when he told the waiting media people that "the present interim government had the mandate of the people." That was something which really did not make any sense to me and, certainly, to many others like me. Let us face the facts boldly and sincerely. We have a non-party, interim government in place now, which is also a non-elected outfit without any mandate from the people whatsoever. No problem as such.
   However, as we all know, the present government had to be inducted under raucous circumstances and unforeseen compulsions due to the bitter squabbling of a sizeable section of our senior politicians. In fact, their irresponsible behaviour was virtually leading the country towards a civil warlike situation, which obviously prompted the patriotic citizens from all sectors of the society to respond positively to the call of the hour. The government thus installed after 1/11 undoubtedly earned the admiration, overwhelming support, and love of the people for some of its initial actions and steps, which were positively taken in the right direction.
   Obviously, the installation of the new interim government led by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed meant cancellation of all normal activities of the state including the holding of the elections slated for January 22, 2007 until normalcy was restored. The government, as we all know, had to be formed under the cover of emergency and by invoking the much talked-about [and sought after!] 'doctrine of necessity'. Quite interestingly, however, the spirit of a 'Caretaker Government' [CG], I must add, has been very much in the corridors of power since the very first day of assumption of office by the new government, although without its real substance.
   This was so because the august Constitution of our country does not ? I repeat, does not ? have any scope or proviso/rider for a CG to be installed for a second term in a row. Obviously, the incoming government was fully aware of its distinctive position, its limitations, the duties it was supposed to perform, and of course the huge backlog of half-done work or the left over political garbage that was put on its shoulder for a total cleansing drive during its short incumbency. And that was once again beyond the normal functions of a CG as mentioned in Article 58D (1) of the Constitution.
   Accordingly, as the ball was set in motion, the government was also constrained to spread its tentacles, opening up umpteen fronts all over, [that included demolishing civilian structures in dozens and reclaiming huge area of land that was illegally grabbed!] for which no one showed any sign of rancour, initially. But as over-enthusiasm in performing the sublime job gradually led to a chaotic situation, people also became annoyed, as the entire exercise turned into some sort of a 'show business' and a source of discomfort for many.
   
   Loathsome slide
   However, positive expectations [after the welcome change and years of frustration and despair], as noticed all over, continued to remain sky high for quite some time. People, irrespective of political affiliation and social standings, thought [quite justifiably] that it was 'now or never'. But to our utter disappointment, the loathsome slide started manifesting itself once again. Prices of essential goods, instead of coming down steadily, started climbing up, as organised syndicates of thugs backed by a section of the discarded political leaders/activists continued to operate through remote controls. The law and order situation also did not improve significantly, even with an extensive deployment of law enforcing personnel all over.
   
   Power sector
   Honestly speaking, it was the power sector that continued to be the 'migraine' of the establishment, and which the authorities, despite their sincere efforts, failed to take out from the 'ICU' even for a short period of time. For some reason or other, there has been no sign of improvement and no words of comfort or solace coming from the top bosses too. Other important sectors including jute, RMG, the national airline Biman [notwithstanding the most competent managing director being in-charge of its affairs now] and the railway continued to show signs of regression and disquiet. The railway, as the communication adviser rightly pointed out the other day, has already sunk! There is no question of sinking.
   There was some confusion also at times centring 'the fountain of power' and as to who was really running the show. Finally, the sleeping 'beauties' within the government woke up and realised how difficult it was to run a government efficiently and competently, with only sweet and sour words on the TV screen! By then, however, enough damage to the credibility of the incumbents had already been done. From an enviable position of having almost the entire nation standing solidly behind it, the interim government suddenly appeared to be gasping for breath and losing the vital ground underneath. In addition, with confusion worst confounded, people at the helm of affairs were compelled to commit certain avoidable mistakes [like stopping Sheikh Hasina from returning home when she was in the USA in April].
   A sense of realisation, no doubt, then quickly dawned on the authorities. Not that everything turned positive overnight once again, but sincere amends were being made to rectify the mistakes that almost robbed a neutral, interim government of its real worth to a great extent. External pressure for holding early elections and handing over power to the people's genuine representatives continued to mount with each day passing. Of course, our friends from abroad, on whose doles and grants we live and survive, have nothing else to do in their leisure time than poke their big noses in other's domestic affairs, even with their own nasty, brutish and cruel record of human rights gleaming at home.
   Unfortunately, they have always underestimated the courageous, spirited, and democratic minded people of Bangladesh and have invariably come out with their own bogus theories and prescriptions from time to time. But in doing so, they have undoubtedly over-stepped the diplomatic decorum. It is clear to all that it is impossible to hold any sort of elections before June or July next year, which is again not the best of seasons to hold national polls. Why then all this hullabaloo and repeated demands from across the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere?
   Indeed, so intense was the euphoria when Dr. Fahkruddin Ahmed took over on that chilly evening of January 2007 that even Sheikh Hasina, while leaving for USA a month later, told the media at the airport: "If elected in future, my government would ratify all actions of the interim government without any qualms." That declaration itself was a preposterous piece of pronouncement, because the AL 'supremo' did not realise at that spur of the moment as to what would happen if the present government was accused in future of killing thousands of people during its incumbency, along with similar other liabilities. That innocuous declaration of Sheikh Hasina would automatically absolve them from any number of heinous acts [if God forbid those are at all committed], without any questions being asked. Does it sound sensible or otherwise?
   Now let us once again turn to the core subject of quick transition to a democratic setup. We all know that the situation which brought in emergency and another interim government was the complete creation of the two 'supremos' of our political arena and their henchmen [and women], with but a few exceptions. While accepting their faults and follies initially, when the emergency provision was being rigorously enforced and the doubtful characters were being picked up one by one, the 'cunning bunch' of our politicians quickly turned a volte-face as soon as the interim government started losing some of its control over the tough 'steering wheel' of the statecraft.
   But, in any case, I really pity their sense of patriotism. They messed up everything during their respective stints in power and stood face to face with their political adversaries [whom they fondly called their enemies!] for a final showdown on January 22 this year, no matter even if it would have cost the country a loss of thousands of precious lives or even its sovereignty! Then, as the whole nation remained absorbed in a tense situation, they cared less and were busy once again giving final touches to the list of their new plan and programme, including the formation of a full-fledged government to restart their loot and plunder!
   What good can a helpless nation really expect from such mean-minded and selfish politicians whose only target or objective perpetually remains the capturing of power? We all know that despite the full support of our patriotic armed forces at every step of administration, including upgrading of the voter list, it would still be quite tough for the Election Commission to complete its assignment within a short period of time, which the politicians are asking for. The whole exercise needs meticulous handling, after continuous crosschecking, for a flawless product. I would therefore strongly suggest simultaneous computerisation of all available data so that the machines may point out any flaw or inconsistencies which may creep up intentionally or otherwise during the process of upgrading the voter list.
   Finally, the treasured upazila elections can be organised and held at least three months prior to the general elections, which would undoubtedly serve as a good warm-up exercise and automatically give the EC an opportunity for making amends and preparing properly for the big event. Such countryside-based elections, if held earlier, can take off a lot of steam from the arena and would eventually shorten the list of the aspiring MPs, ipso facto. However, the bottom line is: We must have patience and fully cooperate with the interim government in order to make sure that the much-cherished elections are held as early as possible. Obviously, there cannot be any option other than reciprocal cooperation in the greater interest of the country.
   The writer is a former state minister.

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