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Quest for business confidence
Imtiyaz Husain
The last Wednesday meet of businessmen and the motley crowd of bureaucrats old and new, NGO stakeholders, professionals of many disciplines did indeed vent the miasma of perturbed fear and uncertainty that has been perforating the veil of confidence. As the Finance Advisor reiterated that while the numbers did not show the lack of confidence, the general perception was indeed rock solid.
It is the nature of behaviour to overstate the fear of the bogeyman. What has clearly emerged in this meet is that there was indeed a tax bogeyman scaring the hell out of the people. The respondents definitely want a stop the vigilantly behaviour inordinately seeking past errant behaviour. The general atmosphere of the crowd was that let reforms take place and let bygones be bygones. More specific issues relating to the cost of doing business were brought up and the single sole solution forwarded by the Finance Advisor was to tighten the belt.
Amongst the many speeches made by various people, two offerings by the star players overshadowed all others. One could say: while the Director of the FBCCI should hone his conceptual skills on appreciating fundamental business opportunities, the presentation by the garment industry representative needed homework. The concluding private sector speech by Mahbubur Rahman of International Chamber of Commerce was primed for the occasion and a fit description of out troubled times. Indeed his conclusion that we should not be intimidated by international agencies was much appreciated.
Chief of Army Staff (CAS) General Moin U. Ahmed, in his speech, highlighted the fact that unlike previous interim government this government was different as it was a 'Reformist Caretaker Government' and was prepared to side step politically populist views and take hard decisions. He summed this realisation as a 'New Social Contract' for achieving a new era for ensuring public good through accountability and peoples' participation.
The key strategy unfolded by the CAS for the improvement of our economy is to face the challenges of the global and domestic market and market liberalisation; to produce goods for internal consumption and thereby reduce dependency; to use new technology and new products; reduce poverty by generating income; involving NRBs; to jump start technological innovations and skill developments etc.
His most significant and practical suggestion to the government was a set of 11 points 'cardinal formula' in order to intensify economic activities. The most significant and remarkable idea was to utilise funds collected through out of court settlement or 'plea bargain' to setup a development fund to support people-oriented and infrastructural projects; he proposed the setting up an oversight body through an Economic Development Committee; he reiterated the divesture of shares held by the government; he suggested spurring economic activities at grass roots levels, reduction of bank interest and tax cuts for the poor; he suggested the spurring of NGO activates and discouraged the harassments of the people by tax, anticorruption and the police by increasing their emoluments. One of the strong points of his recommendations was the skill development of our people so that they may improve their income both at home and abroad.
Some of his suggestions are definitely going to have a long term effect not only in our future wealth creation and poverty reduction but also in shifting the way our governance works. Roping in NRBs and giving them opportunity to be involved will bring in new ideas and skills along with capital. His emphasis on targeting infrastructure development will change the role of the government and shall pay huge dividends in the future. His recommendation to setup retirement funds for the private sector employee is an idea far beyond its time. No government in the past had ever considered this important issue which would not only increase the rate of savings but benefit both psychologically and economically the majority of the work force outside the government.
The Chief Advisor in his presentation emphasised the 'high level of investors' confidence to be a key component' of a reformist government. He pointed out the role of the private sector in the poverty reduction strategy. He suggested the various opportunities existing within the private sector which could be facilitated by the government. His main emphasis was to reduce the cost of doing business to enable the private sector to generate products, services and help in job creation within the framework of conducive corporate governance. He stated that the government had reduced duties, rationalised tariffs and directed efforts towards environment and labour.
The Chief Advisor reviewed some of the earlier government decisions relating to corruption at Chittagong Port; rescinding duty on capital machinery; improvement of the stock markets; setting up of SME Foundation; efforts in the setting up of economic zones and exploring greater private sector participation in infrastructure and civic facilities.
He gave four action plans to develop rapport with the private sector. He proposed the setting up of a high level Regulatory Reform Committee that will review and simplify the existing regulatory framework. He would set up a 'Bangladesh Better Business Forum' in order to get feedback on government policy. The government would undertake capacity building initiatives of select government institutions so that they may better serve the private sector. And finally initiatives would be taken to review the results of reforms so that the nation may be upgraded in its international ranking of Doing Business Indicator.
While answering various queries receive from the audience, the chief Advisor stated that the government was indeed concerned about skill development and finding out ways and means to improve business climate. He suggested that the central bank should look into the matter of bank and depositor interest rates because one cannot do without the other. In specific he stated that the government was prepared to take pragmatic view in matters of errant building plans and in certain cases would attempt to resolve the issue through corrective fines. He also emphasised the importance of capital market development by stating that he had given completion target for divesture of shares of oil companies. In addition work was going on to enable Bangladesh TV to be offered to the public.
Earlier the Chief of Army Staff had replied to the various questions raised by the audience and once again emphasized the nature of the government. He stated that the importance of the capital market and the need to reduce poverty through wealth creation. In specific he mentioned that most corruption cases had been identified to be around 142 which may run to 220. Earlier he had given importance to the role of whistle blowers who could assist in the eradication of corruption. But his most significant suggestion one may say relates to plea bargain which was never considered by any previous government.
If this paradigm is introduced one may see that the cost of governance go down immediately. State litigation runs for years often remaining unresolved. This approach will not only reduce costs but give relief to all parties and reduce the congestion in the courts of law. Today our economy is dove tailed with the global growth. The size of the pie has increased and will keep on increasing substantially. Often the new economic growth requires new regulations, mainly at the behest of international agencies; these sometimes become land mines for the private sector. Some times the private sector either through greed and mischief errs and so fall pray to the regulatory wrought. In view of the fact that we are still trying to align ourselves to the rest of the world the suggestion of the Chief of Staff shall have a far reaching impact on the futures of legal governance.
This endeavour was perhaps the first attempt by the present government to weight and obtain the collective feedback of the business community. In this task one may say the efforts of the government were successful because one could see, before the meet, a shadow of despair in the participants, particularly the small businesses. Soon afterwards it was replaced by brightness of understanding as a result of conversing with the face of the government which was no longer in a shroud of the unknown.
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Visiting IMF Team
Beware of pitfalls of a binding deal
Special Correspondent
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), discredited in many developing countries, has sent a team to Dhaka with certain prescriptions. The team headed by its South Asia Department Adviser Thomas R Rumbaugh arrived in Dhaka on Tuesday and in its first meeting the next day with officials of the National Board of Revenue received a jolt. The revenue officials refused to accept the IMF prescriptions for reforms in the NBR, ostensibly to maximise revenue income through raising efficiency and enforcing accountability. Specifically, the NBR officials rejected the IMF proposal to introduce a joint audit system for income tax and VAT.
"We have not accepted the proposal and have told the IMF adviser that it is neither possible nor viable to introduce the system in Bangladesh," Ali Ahmed, member (income tax) of NBR, told a local new agency after the meeting.
The IMF has been pressuring Bangladesh for a long time to initiate reforms in revenue management to increase revenue collection, saying that the tax-GDP ratio of Bangladesh is very low. The multilateral lending agency also has tagged renewal of the Bangladesh-IMF agreement for the $467.4 million assistance under the revised Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF), aimed at supporting our balance of payment, to reforms in the NBR.
The main objective of the visiting IMF team, scheduled to stay in Dhaka till September 18, however, is to strike a deal with the government on its Policy Support Instrument (PSI), which will entail fulfilling IMF conditions, whether Bangladesh takes any loan from the Fund or not. The IMF proposed signing the PSI accord with Bangladesh just ahead of the scheduled disbursement of the last PRGF tranche in June. And, despite a series of negotiations, the government so far has failed to get that money.
Since its inception in 2005, only three countries - Nigeria, Uganda, and Cape Verde - have signed PSI agreements with the IMF, while two other countries - Tanzania and Ghana - are reportedly in the process of joining the league.
On the PSI agreement, Finance Adviser Mirza Azizul Islam said the government would discuss the matter with the IMF team and decide whatever was best in the country's interest. Well, that at least is a reasonable approach.
Economic experts have already opposed IMF assistance with strings attached. They are highly critical of the closure of jute mills one after another at the behest of IMF and thus throwing thousands of workers unemployed. They are also critical of prescription for trade liberalisation that has affected the country's economy with heavy imports but fewer exports. The experts point out that our foreign exchange reserve, which now stands at around $5 billion, is quite good to meet the exigencies.
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Research Director Dr. Zaid Bakht said, "The IMF provides loan to a country to address a balance of payment deficit, not for development activities. At this moment, Bangladesh enjoys healthy growth rates of export and foreign remittance inflow, and the foreign exchange reserve is also satisfactory. So, the country is not facing any crisis in foreign trade."
He also said, "As a member of the IMF, Bangladesh can seek its advice anytime. There is no need to sign a binding agreement for that."
It should be clear that the IMF or the World Bank have not provided us loan for enhancing the capacity of power generation, which is our major problem. Nor have they provided assistance for creation of employment opportunities to face the rising unemployment problem. IMF assistance is not intended to rescue the economy but indirectly rescue the creditors from whom we have liberally imported goods but not been able to pay from our own export earnings. This means "you import everything including luxurious cars and toys, even affecting the domestic industry, we [IMF] are here to provide loans for footing the bills". Liberal trade policy adopted according to the prescriptions of the lending agencies has resulted in a tremendous increase in our imports and harmed the domestic industry.
A United Nations report in 1999 said the number of poor countries taking IMF/World Bank assistance had increased to 48 from 25 in 1971. It said only Botswana in the past 30 years had improved its condition with the help of the US-based international lending agencies. The reasons for poor countries going poorer taking money from the IMF/World Bank were attributed to too harsh and adverse conditions set by them that helped the multinational companies.
No wonder the IMF has earned a bad name in the developing countries. IMF prescriptions have reportedly destroyed the agro-based infrastructure in Sri Lanka. Realising the perils wrought to its economy, Sri Lank withdrew from the IMF last month. Thailand declared its financial independence from the IMF after paying off its debts in 2003. Indonesia vowed to never take IMF money and decided to pay off all its debts by 2008. The Philippines has refrained from taking new loans from the Fund. Malaysia defied the IMF and refused its prescriptions to overcome the 1997-98 Asian financial slump. It imposed capital control measures and salvaged the economy. Following the example of Thailand, Brazil and Argentina also paid off their debts to the IMF last year and achieved financial independence from the Fund. Describing the IMF as an arrogant institution, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has discarded the Fund and the World Bank as well.
Striking free trade agreements (FTAs) is another prescription of the IMF for the developing countries. A meeting in Bangkok negotiating an FTA between Thailand and the USA came under mob attack a couple of years ago. The then Prime Minister Thaksin, who advocated FTA, was eventually ousted from power in September last year.
South Korea swallowed the IMF prescriptions during the 1997-98 financial crunch. "Social solidarity is unravelling, with emigration, family desertion and divorce rising alarmingly, along the skyrocketing suicide rate," said a recent report from Seoul that quoted an economist as saying that "we have one big unhappy society that looks back to the pre-crisis period as the golden age."
The policymakers of Bangladesh government should know all these sad experiences of borrowers of IMF/World Bank money, lest they do not go on borrowing from them. Follies of previous governments have brought the nation to a situation where the exchequer will have to pay more than Tk 10,000 crore, a large chunk of the national budget, in interests alone in the current fiscal year.
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Khaleda's arrest heralds end
of dynastic politics
Shamsuddin Ahmed
The arrest of Khaleda Zia on Monday and Sheikh Hasina about two months ago on corruption charges signalled the end of dynastic politics in Bangladesh. Khaleda inherited politics from her husband the late President Ziaur Rahman and Hasina from her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, both popular leaders who had been assassinated. The two ladies heading the two major political parties, BNP and Awami League, have alternately ruled this impoverished country for long 15 years.
Tarique Rahman, eldest son of Zia and joint secretary general of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who was tipped as the next prime minister, is already in prison since March. Zia's other son, unknown in politics, was also arrested along with his mother on Monday in the same graft case. The only son of Hasina is settled in the USA.
No specific case has been filed against Tarique till September 3, but Anti-Corruption Commission officials told the Holiday that they were preparing cases against him. Cases so far filed against political leaders were based on unequivocal evidence of corruption. When found guilty and convicted by the court, the prospect of their returning to politics and contesting the general elections promised by the end of next year is sealed.
Khaleda and Hasina have undoubtedly been the symbols of unity in their respective parties. Their absence has caused clear division in both BNP and Awami League. Before she was taken to a sub-jail specially set up for her, Khaleda through her lawyers in the court had expelled BNP Secretary General Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and Joint Secretary General Ashraf Hossain, known as reformists, for anti-party activities. She appointed her adviser Hannan Shah as the Chief Coordinator and Khandakar Delwar Hossain as secretary general of the BNP. The action was sharply challenged by Mannan Bhuiyan, exposing a sharp split and weakening of the party. Reports reaching from different districts indicate that majority of the leaders are still loyal to Khaleda and likely to rally round Hannan Shah. But there is no last word in politics.
A similar division is apparent in Awami League (AL), too. Acting President Zillur Rahman has declared that the party will not take part in the proposed dialogue with the Election Commission on electoral reforms or in the elections without securing release of Hasina. But, AL Presidium Member Amir Hossain Amu is in favour of reforms. There are indications that a number of other AL stalwarts including Suranjit Sen Gupta, Tofail Ahmed, and Abdur Razzak are likely to join the move initiated by Amu.
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia in a recent teleconference with party activists in New York reportedly claimed unquestionable integrity of her son Tarique Rahman, now detained in prison. About political reforms, she said it was Tarique, who was made senior joint secretary general of the BNP at one go some years ago, who had started bringing about reforms in the party. It sounded ridiculous when she claimed that her son inherited the virtues of his father Ziaur Rahman.
"It's a manifestation of blind affection for her overambitious son that doomed herself and the party as well," remarked a former BNP lawmaker who was once a colleague of this correspondent. He said Khaleda was quite aware of widespread allegations of corruption and misdeeds of Tarique during her rule. A number of intelligence agencies used to report to her about his activities.
Speculations have been rife in the BNP since 2004 that Tarique would be the prime minister after the January 22 elections and Khaleda would assume the presidency. The BNP Chittagong divisional conference held at Cox's Bazar in April 2004, which was attended by some 30 party central leaders and more than 2,000 delegates, declared Tarique as the future leader of BNP. Indeed, he was very much popular in the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal, the student front, and Jatiyatabadi Jubo Dal, the youth front, of BNP for his generous distribution of all kinds of favours among the activists. To them he was the godfather.
Some elderly BNP leaders believed that certain external forces had assisted the immature Tarique to secure the leadership of the younger group of party leaders, including most of the state and deputy ministers, according to a blueprint to destroy the nationalist party. Although he held no position in the government, he used to wield enormous power and allegedly ran a parallel administration from Hawa Bhaban.
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Election roadmap in focus,
politicians unready
Sadeq Khan
The reformed caretaker government and the reformed election commission, with the support of the President (symbol of continuity of elective authority, and supreme commander of the armed forces of the people's republic) and with the backing of military detachments called in aid of the civil administration, have repeatedly expressed their intent and determination to hold free and fully participatory general election by December 2008.
Instigations to deviate from their roadmap have been manifold and unceasing, from within the country and from without the country. But the caretaker government and the election commission have remained steadfast in their course, and their backing within the institutions of the state simply did not waiver. Some leaders of major political parties, under restraints imposed by EPR, have been lending lip-service to political reforms they themselves put on the agenda prior to the imposition of emergency.
Under a mandate authorised by the President, the caretaker government with the help of various agencies including the anticorruption commission, the national board of revenue and the joint task forces with military participation for combating serious crime and corruption, is doing part of the reforms job by cleansing effect. But the essential job of putting their houses into order has to be done by the politicians themselves. Albeit the ban on political activity under EPR ties the hands of politicians, but their freedom of expression through the media, to which they retained full access, was not utilised to indicate any change of mindset or any inclination for reforms.
Instead, through media exposure and memorial occasions to gather party leaders and workers in limited numbers, through teleconferences with expatriate party men gathered in foreign locations, and other overt and covert devices, the message that has been coming out from the incumbent leadership of the major political parties was of pooh-poohing the "unelected" government and challenging the merit of its deeds, and also questioning the bonafides of the military for "going out of their way" in supporting the caretaker administration for an extended period. The common call was for "immediate" general election and no more insistence on a "faultless voter-list", or any mechanism to prevent false voters or false counts, or such other electoral malpractices.
The reformed election commission is taking time to comprehensively deal with all such malpractices, including vote buying, publicity stunts, voter-intimidation, etc., by measures for rigorous oversight of electoral code of conduct on the one hand, and by introduction of voter identity cards as well as preparation of voter list with photographs on the other. The EC has been receiving little thanks from the heroines and heroes in the wings of the emptied stage of the political theatre. But voter response and cooperation is unreserved and spontaneous.
Through their long-standing connections with foreign powers and also by lobbying through Banglaphone community activists abroad, the charismatic leaders of established political parties in this country have also been mobilising tremendous diplomatic pressures for early election and for abandonment of some of the comprehensive measures chalked out by the EC and by the caretaker government. The latter did not budge.
A brief trial of old-style civil disobedience accompanied by habitual violence and vandalism of hit and run street agitation was staged by certain a actors closely linked with the top leaders of two mainstream parties in covert compact. This was allegedly done manipulating teacher-student power in two public university campuses and some university colleges. Possible spread of the unrest was firmly contained by the caretaker government by imposing gradually diminishing hours of curfew in six divisional headquarters, and by closing major institutions of higher learning, which however are now left to be reopened by their own judgments and volition.
The government also collected its act together to plug the loopholes of the law and also loopholes in the application of emergency power rules to be able to take into custody the immediate-past prime minister and the immediate past leader of the opposition (also a former Prime Minister) to answer charges of high-level corruption and abuse of power. Indeed it appears that one of the motives behind the call for abandoning the EC roadmap and declaring early elections was the belief of the top political leaders that they could escape close scrutiny of their conduct in office and escape the long hand of the law by popular verdict of their electoral weightage through early elections. It seemed they believed even the higher courts might also be inclined to take such weightage into consideration to allow them a long rope for evasion of accountability. The caretaker government has certainly impressed the public by their actions so far to establish a rule of law that does not discriminate between the humble and the mighty, and does not spare "political" heavyweights.
Clearly the socio-political landscape of the country is now under full control of the caretaker government, and the EC roadmap is on course with acknowledgement or endorsement from within and from without the country. But suppressed doubts and vulnerability remain about the sustainability of that roadmap, not so much from the actors, real or potential, in the power game, but from the limits of endurance of the ordinary citizens who bear the brunt of dislocations and difficulties under the emergency and the burden of limitations of a prolonged caretaker regime.
The price-rise spiral has remained out of control, although stop-gap measures to weather over the Ramzan demands have been put in place. A climate of fear is prevalent in the economic life of the nation on account of concerted measures in applying the coercive powers of the state to obtain quick results in revenue collection, recovery of government lands, enforcement of planning standards, prevention of adulteration in foodstuff, clearance of footpaths from street vendors, and so on. Economic growth is slowing down, which is a matter of concern particularly for most actors in the micro-economic sector, although no such concern is as yet discernible by macro-economic indices.
It is good that the caretaker government has taken note of that and decided that it is now time for persuasion after whatever results could be achieved by the necessary measures of coercion to get out of the mire in which the nation was sinking. In a confidence-building brain-storming meet with business leaders, small and medium industrial entrepreneurs and other socio-economic activists on September 5, the chief adviser, the finance adviser and the chief of army staff sought to assure the traders, the investors, the manufacturers and others down the line that there is nothing to fear for honesty businessmen and nothing wrong about making money. The government is there to help them in creating wealth for themselves and for the nation. Even the erring businessmen will be allowed to go straight without fear of intimidation. The moot point that struck home in the minds of the audience was the assurance by General Moeen U. Ahmed that the anti-corruption and prevention of serious crimes drive by the task forces under the caretaker government will cease from end September for tracking old follies, and every one will get a chance for plea-bargaining for old sins as long as one goes straight in the future. The current list of major anti corruption suspects is expected to reach a limit of 220 and stop there by end-September. Any addition to that list would only be done on specific complaints of current attempts or incidents of corruption received by the ACC in the usual course.
That declaration, for rolling back the carpet of coercive measures harassing many experienced and inexperienced businessmen, professionals and self-employed individuals, has been well received and may induce a spate of micro-economic activity. Other worthy assurances by the chief adviser and an eleven-point action programme for economic resurgence spelled out by the army chief are not the subject of this article. In general terms, it is noteworthy that a positive impact has been made by the high profile meeting with businessmen and related actors and strategists towards necessary confidence-building to invigorate the economic life of the nation.
The roadmap towards general election by December 2008 is thus well-founded by now, and likely to be traversed smoothly behind the flagship of the caretaker regime. But will the politicians be ready by that time to take the helm of the ship of state? That question looms large as the loyalists (of the jailed supremos) and the reformists (led by suddenly-expelled secretary general Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan of the BNP and a rebel old guard and cousin of Sheikh Hasina, Amir Hossain Amu of the Awami League) in mainstream politics are now engrossed in factional warfare. The blame game and other tricks in that for public interest. To relate to the fast-changing social-economic realities of the nation as well as of the international scenario, it is high time they change their old ways and put public interest uppermost in their thoughts, words and acts.
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Antimilitary Provocations
Bangladesh is not Pakistan or Turkey
M. Shahidul Islam
Hitler's generals under-estimated the strength and resolve of the Russian army before attacking Stalingrad during the Second World War, but the Bangladesh military knows the mindset of the people of this country and has acted accordingly during every national crisis.
Our armed forces revolted and volunteered to declare independence and mobilised and led the masses to fight the War of Independence on behalf of political leaders in 1971. In November 1975, the armed forces joined the masses to stage a revolution. In December 1990, the military looked on impassively as people removed General Ershad from power to restore democracy.
Unlike Turkey and Pakistan, where military's routine interventions into politics have gone unchallenged, Bangladesh has tried the mutineers of August 15, 1975 and May 31, 1981; and the notorious military ruler HM Ershad was taught a befitting lesson by the nation's judiciary for his reckless indulgences in moral and material corruption.
Despite that, a vested quarter is trying to divert the nation's ongoing crusade against corruption to a turbulent political movement by instigating people to rise against the military. This is irresponsible and treacherous.
While the nation has been trying to recover from the trauma of the recent, unprecedented, mob assault on uniformed military personnel, an expatriate Bangla language columnist, Abdul Gaffar Chowdhury, made a provocative call from New York to "wage guerrilla operation against the army". He who calls for an armed struggle without reason is not a democrat, period.
Chowdhury's brand of democracy is related to one-party rule and he is one of those rabble rousers better known for partisan shenanigan. That is why his latest utterances seem unforgivable and unbecoming, to say the least. Besides, the military did not intervene this time by declaring martial law, although the stage was set and ready. The Chief of Army Staff General Moeen U Ahmed reiterated only days ago that the military was backing the government in its transitional journey towards a credible democracy.
A fruit is known by its taste. Some of the latest episodes say much about the sincerity of the military. An arrest may not mean much, but the arrest of Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister for three terms and the widow of a late president who had declared the country's independence, has fulfilled the expectation of many who wanted the political arena swept clean of 'doubtful' elements responsible for piling trashes onto the nation's body politic by being stubbornly irreconcilable and blind to party interests. The arrest also has gone a long way in showing that the characteristics of the Bangladesh military is not as smeared with politicisation as is being portrayed by a section of the intelligentsia.
This is not the first time that Chowdhury and many columnists of his ilk have likened Bangladesh's latest 'indirect military intervention' with that of Pakistan. But, the comparison is frivolous, fantasy-driven, and malicious.
Many of our intelligentsia seem to have forgotten that the nation is passing through one of the most challenging times of its history and restraint is warranted from all concerned. They also need to be reminded that our political culture is in no way comparable to that of Turkey or Pakistan, where the civil-military conflict has deteriorated further in recent days due to a host of political and constitutional complications. We, as a nation, have managed to keep ourselves free of such constitutional handicaps until now, thanks to some of our predecessors who had shown vision and benevolence by bridging some legal loopholes.
Pakistan has been under military rule for the better part of its history and past attempts to democratise the nation's polity failed a number of times. As history comes to a full cycle, Pakistan's current military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, has lost his support bases at home and abroad, arousing the passion of the civil polity against a military that still supports him only to preserve the chain of command.
Internationally, despite the unqualified support his administration has rendered since late 2001 to the US-led war against the Afghan-based Islamist militants, the Afghan war has gone as sour for NATO forces as did the Russia's Afghan war in the 1980s. As blames are being levelled against Musharraf for his failure to curb Islamist militancy within and around the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas, the US wants his departure from the political scene. All the NATO club members also want to supplant Musahrraf's government even with a ramshackle democracy that may not last. That is why the plan is facing trouble as it is as yet unclear as to whether the US and its allies want Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif or another general in power and whether the ongoing dialogue for power sharing between Benazir and Musharraf will see the light of the day, putting Nawaz in the opposition camp.
Despite efforts by a number of Western governments, the so-called 'London deal' between Musharraf and Benazir collapsed last week, on September 1, leading to speculations that Musharraf is distancing away from the US and devising ways to introduce democracy keeping the two exiled leaders out. If this seems like a 'minus-two' theory akin to ours, the comparison is far fetched; both the Pakistani leaders are still in exile and General Musharraf is wearing both the hats of the president and the army chief at the same time.
Besides, one of the most intractable stumbling blocks in the Pakistani negotiations is related to constitutional matters, compounded further by Benazir's insistence that the president be stripped of the power to dissolve parliament. This has resulted in Musharraf's quest for a deal with the Islamists within the country whom he estranged earlier. If Musharraf fails to secure Benazir's support, he will have to strike a deal with the Islamists, something the Bangladesh military needs not to do as it does not seek any political office.
But, the Islamists in Pakistan, too, are unlikely to join the general and one of their most influential leaders, Fazal-ur-Rehman, said on September 2 that he would not back the president. "No democratic power will be ready to support President Musharraf in parliament," Rehman cautioned. At the same time, the fear of Musharraf's reprisal seems to have been trounced by Nawaz Sharif too, who announced on August 31 that he would return to Pakistan on September 10. Sharif's decision comes as a result of the Pakistan Supreme Court's ruling that he can return from exile. He says he will join the electoral battle against Musharraf who overthrew him in 1999 and later sentenced him to life in prison on graft and security charges, before exiling him to Saudi Arabia in 2000.
Like Benazir, Sharif also may face arrest on his arrival in Pakistan. In contrast, none of our leaders have been exiled or convicted as yet and our judiciary will decide on their fates based on the merits of the charges brought against them.
However, to avert possible dangers upon his return, Sharif is demanding the resignation of Musharraf as president as well as the army chief, which Benazir also demanded as a precondition to joining Musharraf as the prime minister, but the general has refused to budge. He so far has agreed to drop the corruption charges against Benazir and her family and to accept her becoming the prime minister for the third term under his presidency.
Reliable sources say the reason for the failure of the 'London deal' was Benazir's increased reticence at the final stage of the negotiations, which observers say was caused by intense behind-the-scene pressure from Sharif, who wants both the exiled leaders to fight in unison to remove Musharraf from power and revert Pakistan to a democracy by ensuring total withdrawal of the military from politics. Both the exiled leaders have backing of Western governments, something our detained leaders are not sure of.
Despite the failure of negotiations and the slim hope of success in future negotiations with Benazir by Musharraf's agents, who are likely to return to London after consultation in Islamabad, Benazir said she would return to Pakistan soon and the exact date would be announced on September 14.
Another noticeable difference is - the game plan of Benazir is realistic and geo-politics-driven, which Hasina or Khaleda does not have the luxury to emulate. To make her Western friends happy, Benazir said on September 1, "I plan to return to Pakistan in the next few weeks to work for a moderate, democratic Pakistan that is free from the threat of terrorism and which can address the basic needs of its people." The West liked that comment.
She further said, "I feel the stage is set for the restoration of democracy and I hope to go back to play my part." Hinting at Musharraf's failure to curb terrorism, Benazir said, "The slide toward a failed state would be difficult to stop, if the political situation in Pakistan is not resolved."
While Benazir wants to restore democracy, our interim government has already started the process of holding an election by the end of 2008. There is no reason for us to derail that journey by being provocative against a military that is trying desperately to hasten that process and to ensure the election's credibility and propriety.
Pakistan aside, Turkish President Abdullah Gul faces a crisis which is the most unique one in so far as the civil-military relationship in any democracy is concerned. Last week, Gul was sworn in as the 11th president of Turkey following his victory in the August 29 election in parliament.
Unlike Pakistan and Bangladesh, Turkey adheres to a constitutional secularism and the military is considered a custodian of the nation's secular ethos. The constitutionally-empowered Turkish military has successfully ousted four governments since 1960. That is why, despite Gul's victory, Turkish military leaders dared to boycott his swearing-in ceremony as a sign of opposition to his Islamic past.
If such an 'illegal' stance by the Turkish military against an elected president failed to evoke any sense of revolt against the military among the Turkish intelligentsia at home and abroad, why some of our intellectuals are crying wolf?
Unlike Bangladesh, Turkey is in the throes of a political transformation that Gul kicked off as a leader of an Islamist party that is now banned. Although a political crisis followed his nomination by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) earlier this year, he managed to overcome that hurdle because of the massive popularity of the AK Party that also won the 2000 parliamentary elections. The crisis however resulted in an early general election in July.
Besides, the election of Gul is widely seen as a vote of support for the economic gains Turkey has made in recent years and the secularists' unease about his wife Hayrunisa wearing an Islamic headscarf does not stand the test of time and ethics in a predominant Muslim country. More than half of all Turkish women still wear hijab, despite hijab having been banned in public offices and schools for almost three decades. Especially since the incidents of 9/11 in the USA, the number of hijab-wearing Muslim women has multiplied in Turkey and elsewhere in Europe as well as in North America, which must be seen as a reaction to what is happening against Muslims across the globe.
Viewed through such a prism, and politics being the final arbiter on matters of discord, Gul's presidency is being opposed mainly due to the Turkish constitution empowering the president to appoint officials like constitutional court judges and the military chiefs. The president is also empowered to veto legislation. Hence the secularists have adopted the diehard stance against Gul.
The cases of Turkey and Pakistan show that any report of civil-military discords in Bangladesh is but imaginary or nascent and nebulous at most. Our military still enjoys a congenial relationship with the majority of the civil society and our constitution has consigned the armed forces to apolitical roles. Especially, the military's latest indirect intervention was made purely in aid of the civil authorities.
That being the case, those who instigate the agitators to turn this soothing civil-military relationship into an inimical one should keep in mind that constitution can be changed by means other than votes in parliament. We do have precedents of constitutional changes through presidential ordinances first and parliamentary ratifications later. Let us not revisit that controversial path by listening to provocateurs who are tied to their blind self-interests.
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Change of advisers likely
Shahriar Noori
The caretaker government headed by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed is considering inclusion of some new personalities as advisers for a smoother operation of the administration, said a reliable source.
The number of advisers however will remain 10 for the time being as set by the constitution.
The number of new advisers is likely to be five to seven and the reshuffle of the council of advisers is expected to start soon by dropping two key members from the Fakhruddin-led cabinet, said the source.
According to the source, if the council finally sees the change of faces, its new members will be more representative in character and more capable to arrange the next general elections or to handle any emergencies like the one the country faced last month.
The government is also going to announce that the political parties can hold indoor Iftar parties in Ramadan, the source said, adding that such limited political activities will determine the government's next decision about lifting the ban on political activities.
Meanwhile, the investigations into the August 20-22 campus violence have reached their final stages. Around 170 persons, including university teachers, an Awami League leader, a former lawmaker, and the president of Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal have been arrested so far in connection the rioting that spread from the Dhaka University (DU) campus to across the country with surprising rapidity.
According to police sources, 85 to 90 of the arrested, including the teachers, were directly involved in the DU strike, observed earlier, and the consecutive violence. The police will seek permission of policymakers by next week for filing the charge sheets against them.
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5% Duty on PV to Affect Rural poor
Tax burden hinders promising solar energy growth
Mostafa Kamal Majumder
Bangladesh's nascent solar electricity sector offering great promise to the poor in detached rural communities is now facing grave crisis in consequence of taxation in the current budget thus making the sector's growth prospect very bleak.
Harnessed solar energy benefits the country's some one million people of limited means in running their cottage industry and other economic activities.
But in energy-hungry Bangladesh the NBR has imposed 5 per cent tax on the solar panels, which will directly impede the new sector's expansion and development.
In neighbouring India an independent ministry promotes and offers all-out support to generation of solar and other renewable energies and produces 5000MW electricity. Bangladesh's solar electricity output is too meagre -- in between 25MW and 28MW.
Grameen Shakti's total generation capacity is over 20 MW, and other service providers, namely, LGED, produces some 5MW.
Energy is one of the important components of development and Bangladesh is one of the lowest energy consuming countries of the world. Consequently, the country is economically backward. About 30 per cent people now gets grid electricity. In the vast rural areas, where 70 per cent people live, the situation is worse.
As the homesteads are scattered and isolated in the rural areas, connecting them with grid power is very difficult; in some cases impossible. A decentralised power system is the only option for those areas, which the solar PV technology can solve. It is renewable, decentralised and its reserve is unlimited.
First SHS
The technology was unknown in Bangladesh even in early 1990s. The first solar home system project launched by Rural Electrification Board (REB) in 1993 at Karimpur village in Narsingdi district covering about 800 families, followed by the extension of SHS project launched by Grameen Shakti in 1996. In order to encourage these initiatives, government from the very beginning did not impose any tax or vat on the import of solar panels. In the National Energy Policy 1995, government declared exemption of all taxes on renewable energy business, committed all necessary support for the promotion of renewable energy technologies. The donor community namely, USAID, GTZ, World Bank, kfw came forward with financial support to accelerate the pace of dissemination. As a result, the technology could attract the common people and even the poorest of the poor living in the remotest corner of the rural Bangladesh.
In the Millennium Development Declaration 2000, to which the Government is a signatory, increase of renewable energy share up to 10 per cent assured by the year 2015. As a follow-up, international conferences on renewable energy have been arranged in Bonn in 2004 and in Beijing in 2005.
In those international forums, Bangladesh could not show any remarkable progress, except the solar PV extension programme initiated by Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL), a Government-owned company, supported by the World Bank and extension of solar PV programme by Grameen Shakti.
Grameen Shakti
It may be stated here that in Bangladesh about 150,000 solar home (SHS) systems have been installed so far. Among these, Grameen Shakti alone installed more than 100,000 SHS. The Government took initiative to declare renewable energy policy and establish an authority for the promotion of renewable energy technologies in 1997. Ten years have passed, but no concrete measure has yet been taken.
Last year, the Government made a budget provision of Tk. 100 crore for the extension of renewable energy technologies, but could not spend a single Taka solar home system, but the Government is making money by.
This year, the Finance Minister in his budget speech clearly declared that there will be no tax on the import of solar PV system. But rcently, National Board of Revenue (NBR) imposed 5 per cent tax on the solar panel. It is astonishing that the donors are giving subsidy on imposing tax on solar panel.
Grameen Shakti, the biggest promoter of solar home system now has two options - either to increase the cost of panel / SHS or to stop their extension programme. In any way, the rural poor will be affected, even the extension of solar home system in Bangladesh may be stopped.
It may be stated here that neighbouring India established a separate department for the promotion of renewable energy in 1982, which has been upgraded to a separate ministry in 1992. As a result, they are now producing more than 5000 MW electricity from the renewable energy sources.
SHSs of GS, income generation
GS provides complete and end-to-end services to the rural population. Grameen Shakti is conducting research to utilise wind energy in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. It has installed 4 hybrid power stations (combination of wind turbine and diesel generator) in four cyclone shelters of Grameen Bank. Power generated from the wind turbines is connected to four cyclone shelters.
GS has linked this technology to the income generating activities. Grameen Shakti encourages customers to apply PV systems for productive use. Some examples of application of PV system for income generation include (i) charging village pay phone, (ii) lighting rice/saw mill, (iii) lighting tailoring shop/grocery shop, (iv) poultry farm, (v) lighting restaurants, (vi) bazaar, (vii) micro-utility (selling power to neighbouring shop), and (viii) radio/TV repairing shop.
Children's education and other activities of houses have improved due to better quality of light. Consumers reported increase in income by extended working hours after dusk.
Indian alternative energy
India's power sector has a total installed capacity of approximately 102,000 MW. The Indian government estimates that a potential of 50,000 MW of power capacity can be harnessed from new and renewable energy sources. Development of alternate energy has been part of India's strategys for expanding energy supply and meeting decentralised energy needs of the rural sector.
The programme, considered one of the largest among developing countries, is administered through India's Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES), energy development agencies in the various States, and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA).
To date, over 1,500 MW of wind-power capacity has been commissioned and about 1,423 MW capacity of small hydro installed.
India is located in the equatorial sun belt of the earth, thereby receiving abundant radiant energy from the sun. The India Meteorological Department maintains a nationwide network of radiation stations, which measure solar radiation and also the daily duration of sunshine.
India supports development of both solar thermal and solar photovoltaics (PV) power generation. To demonstrate and commercialise solar thermal technology in India, MNES is promoting megawatt scale projects such as the proposed 35MW solar thermal plant in Rajasthan and is encouraging private sector projects by providing financial assistance from the Ministry.
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Universities set to reopen soon as situation turns normal
Abdur Rahman Khan
With the campus situation cooling down, the authorities are feeling confident to reopen the public universities and colleges, which were ordered closed due to the student violence of August 20-22.
The government on August 22 ordered closure of all public universities and colleges at the divisional headquarters following the sudden outbreak of violence, which originated from the Dhaka University (DU) playground and quickly spread to other educational institutes across the country.
The decision to reopen the universities and colleges was taken last week following a meeting of Education Adviser Dr. Ayub Kadri with the vice-chancellors of all public universities.
The reopening of the universities and colleges was felt necessary to avoid further loss of academic time as most of the public universities are already dogged by session jam. The universities also need to begin the admission process very soon as the results of the higher secondary certificate and equivalent examinations were announced on August 26.
Accordingly, the Khulna University of Science and Technology and the Shahjalal University of Science and Technology in Sylhet have already announced reopening of their campuses this Saturday and resumption of academic activities from Monday.
The Dhaka University Syndicate will hold a meeting on September 11 to discuss the reopening of the university. Before the syndicate meets, the DU Deans Committee will sit in a meeting after appointment of two acting deans to the faculties of social sciences and biological science. The two posts are now vacant as Social Sciences Faculty Dean Professor Harun-or-Rashid and Biological Science Faculty Dean Professor Anwar Hossain were arrested following the student unrest.
The university, however, may reopen in part in the month of Ramadan for the convenience of student-researchers, DU Vice-Chancellor SMA Faiz told the media.
The DU authorities are likely to complete the process of enrolment in undergraduate courses before reopening the university, the VC said, adding that 'If the admission process is completed during the closure, it will help prevent complications.'
On Thursday, Jahangirnagar University admission committee sat in a meeting to decide the admission schedule. The university will start selling admission forms from the first week of October and taking admission tests from mid-November.
The Chittagong University Syndicate also held a meeting on Thursday and decided to reopen the dormitories and resume academic activities soon as the situation improved to a satisfactory level.
Meanwhile, the two DU teachers arrested on charges of breaching the Emergency Powers Rules were sent to jail after spending 11 days in police custody. They were also shown arrested in another case filed with Ramna Police Station for vandalising public and private property and obstructing the police from performing their duties in the capital on August 22. The case was filed against some 6,000 unnamed students, teachers, and outsiders.
In Rajshahi University, three teachers accused of instigating violence and violating the emergency rules were sent to jail after they had surrendered to the court. A former vice-chancellor of the university, Dr. Saidur Rahman Khan, and two other teachers were arrested earlier in connection with the case.
While in police custody, Professor Anwar Hossain, also general secretary of the Dhaka University Teachers' Association, offered unconditional apology to the army for the maltreatment of its troops on the DU campus. The agitators were also frustrated as there had been little response to a signature campaign launched in demand of release of the arrested teachers.
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GLIMPSES OF THE GREAT
Karl Marx
K. Z. Islam
Marx was a child of his time, the mid-nineteenth century, and Marxism was a characteristic nineteenth century philosophy in that it claimed to be scientific. Karl Marx thought he had found a scientific explanation of human behaviour in history akin to Darwin's theory of evolution. Actually Karl Marx was really a scholar and lived an intense life filled with study and activity. He was a prolific writer and his magnum opus Das Kapital was published in four volumes only one of which came out during his life time. He had thought that the writing of Das Kapital might make him rich, but the first volume sold only 1000 copies. If Marxism would have been established as a science one shudders to think that if Nazism had succeeded then it might have well become established as universal race-theory.
Marx borrowed money heedlessly, spent it, then was invariably astounded and angry when the heavily discounted bills, plus interest, became due. He saw the charging of interest, essential as it is to any system based on capital, as a crime against humanity, and at the root of the exploitation of man by man which his entire system was designed to eliminate. That was in general terms. But in the particular context of his own case he responded to his difficulties by himself exploiting anyone within reach and in the first place his own family.
All the same, one way or another Marx got considerable sums of money by inheritance. His father's death brought him 6000 gold francs, some of which he spent on arming Belgian workmen. His mother's death in 1856 brought him less than he expected, but this was because he had anticipated the legacy by borrowing from his Uncle Philips. He also received a substantial sum from the estate of Wilhelm Wolf in 1864. Other sums came in through his wife and her family (she also brought with her as part of her wedding portion a silver dinner service with the coat of arms of her Angryll ancestors, crested cutlery and bed linen). Between them they received enough money, sensibly invested, to provide a competence, and at no point did their actual income fall below £200 a year, three times the average wage of a skilled workman. But neither Marx himself nor his wife Jenny had any interest in money except to spend it. Legacies and loans alike went in dribs and drabs and they were, never a penny better off permanently. Indeed they were always in debt, often seriously, and the silver dinner service regularly went to the pawnbrokers along with much else, including the family's clothing. At one point Marx alone was in a position to leave the house, retaining one pair of trousers. Jenny's family, like Marx's own, refused further help to a son-in-law they regarded as incorrigibly idle and improvident. In March 1851, writing to Engels to announce the birth of a daughter, Marx complained: 'I have literally not a farthing in the house.'
By this time, of course, Engels was the new subject of exploitation. From the mid-1840s, when they first came together until Marx's death, Engels was the main source of income for the Marx family. Marx throughout his life was as bankrupt as Marxism was to prove a century later.
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NEWS NOTES FROM NEW YORK
Fazle Rashid
India's massive military build-up
India is planning a massive military build-up primarily to counter China's military might. The Indian move will also offset the present equilibrium in South Asia. India has taken in hand a programme to beef up its military strength by spending well over $40 billion over the next five years. India's military appetite is to match its growing economic power, said the New York Times in a report.
India's military spending, ironically, will be in the midst of one suicide committed every eight hours, according to the BBC, and 49 million children, who should be going to school, working to earn a livelihood, according to an Indian TV channel in the USA. India will acquire jet fighters, artillery, submarines, and tanks. A bulk of its military hardware it has acquired from Russia.
India is planning to add 126 jet fighters to its air force fleet at a mammoth cost of $10.2 billion, the NYT said. The hefty increase in military spending reflects India's changing view of itself. It is seeking to play a bigger role on the global stage and the role of policeman in the region. Once known as a 'no-go area', India is now seen as a virgin territory for American armament makers. But, Russia still remains the most discreet suitor.
The South Asian giant will also throw open its market to international competition on condition that foreign companies will produce a minimum of 50 per cent of products in the country.
China to inform UN on defence
China has agreed to inform the United Nations about its military spending and weapon trade to calm growing speculations about its 'secretive and rapidly expanding' armed forces. China's defence outlay has increased at a double digit rate since 1990s. The current year's defence budget is to the tune of $45 billion. China has not abandoned its claim on Taiwan, but its intensions at the moment seem peaceful and defensive.
The decision to provide the UN with the information reflects China's sensitivity to the growing chorus of protests from its neighbours in Asia, like Japan and Australia, and the US as well. Pentagon contends that Beijing's defence spending far exceeds the figure mentioned in its annual budget. China spends more on its armed forces than any other country, barring America, Pentagon asserts.
A major reshuffle of the Chinese cabinet has taken place recently. In redistribution of assignments, five ministers have been shown the door and four new faces inducted into the cabinet. This is seen as prospects of bigger changes to come before the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October. The major axe fell on Finance Minister Jin Renqing who was widely tipped to become a politburo member.
Corruption across the globe
Corruption is spreading like a wild bush fire. It has not spared even a country like China. President Hu Jintao has launched an intense anti-graft drive to cleanse the administration before the October Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The crackdown ordered by the president has claimed several heads.
In Japan, the resignation of the agriculture minister only a week after his appointment is seen as a gathering of a political storm. The resignation of Takehiko is being attributed to a scandal involving misuse of farm subsidies. He is the fourth minister to step down in the past year and the third agriculture minister to quit in the past four months. Takehiko admitted that a farm company that he led had received government subsidies by inflating damage.
In Poland, security agents arrested the immediate past and sacked interior minister, prompting the opposition to accuse Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski of corruption and using the police to silence the opposition. The former interior minister has been arrested on charges of leaking classified news.
An American company operating in Kuwait paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes to American contracting officials to win lucrative contracts. One of the officials, Major Gloria, committed suicide in 2006. She accepted $225,000 in bribes from the company. The US government is reviewing 18,000 shoddy contracts worth more than $3 billion.
A corruption scandal that has been hovered like a black cloud over Brazilian President Lula da Silva for the past two years intensified recently after the country's Supreme Court framed corruption charges against the president's former chief of staff.
Great Wall of China faces extinction
The Great Wall of China, once one of the Seven Wonders of the World, is facing the possibility of extinction in the next 20 years. The wall is 3,980 miles long. Every year, an estimated 10 million people visit the wall constructed by the Han dynasty between 206 BC and 220 AD. Roughly 37 miles of the wall has already disappeared. The wall was made of mud, not brick and stone, and so is prone to erosion, Chinese officials said.
Iraq-bound US arms found in Turkey
This is likely to puzzle people all over the globe. American weapons meant for Iraq found their way into Turkey, baffling all and sundry. It was discovered when the numbers on pistols and other weapons recovered in Turkey matched those sent to Iraq. Turkey said the weapons were sold to Kurdish separatists by Iraqi security officials and the Kurdish in Iraq. Pentagon has not corroborated the claim.
Foreigners want a say in US economy
Politicians, regulators, and financial specialists outside the US are seeking a role in the oversight of American economy. "We need an international approach and the US will be part of it," a German analyst suggested. He said America depended on the rest of the world to finance its huge debt liabilities. Europe and Asia have more leverage now. America rejects the idea, saying it wants no oversight. The idea was floated after China and France had suffered heavy losses by buying securities in the US.
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