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The phenomenon of urban growth
Kanaga Raja
For the first time in history, as of 2008, more than half of the world's population - 3.3 billion people - will be living in urban areas, and this number is expected to swell to almost 5 billion by 2030, says the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
In its "State of the World Population 2007" report, the UN population agency said that many of the new urbanites will be poor, and their future, the future of cities in the developing countries and the future of humanity itself will depend very much on decisions made now in preparation for this growth.
Urbanisation - the rise in the urban share of the total population - is inevitable, and could be considered a positive development, the report said. No country in the industrial age has achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation.
While the global urban population will grow to 4.9 billion by 2030, the world's rural population is expected to decrease by some 28 million between 2005 and 2030.
At the global level, all future population growth will be in towns and cities, and most of this growth will be in developing countries.
The report said that humanity will have to undergo a 'revolution in thinking' in order to deal with the doubling of the urban population in Africa and Asia by 2030. Over 30 years, the population of African and Asian cities will double, adding 1.7 billion people - more than the populations of China and the Untied States combined.
Meanwhile, said the report, the urban population of the developed world is expected to grow relatively little - from 870 million to 1.01 billion.
"What happens in the cities of Africa and Asia and other regions will shape our common future," said UNFPA Executive Director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "We must abandon a mind-set that resists urbanisation and act now to begin a concerted global effort to help cities unleash their potential to spur economic growth and solve social problems."
To take advantage of potential opportunities, governments must prepare for the coming growth. "If they wait, it will be too late," warned Obaid.
The UNFPA report said that the vast urban expansion in developing countries has global implications, yet surprisingly, little is being done to maximise the potential benefits of this transformation or to reduce its harmful consequences.
An outstanding feature of urban population growth in the 21st century is that it will be composed, to a large extent, of poor people. Although most new urbanites will be poor, they must be part of the solution, said the report. Assisting them to meet their needs - for housing, health care, education and employment - could also unleash the potential of urban-dwellers to power economic growth.
It also requires gender analysis - the particular needs and capabilities of poor women and girls are often unaccounted for and assumed to be the same as those of poor men and boys. And, as population structures change, attention to youth and the needs of the elderly will become ever more important.
Urban life, the report said, offers many possibilities for women and girls, and cities are more open to women's social and political participation, and self-reliant community groups can help poor women negotiate the obstacles to empowerment and a better life.
It is estimated that as many as 60 per cent of all urban dwellers will be under the age of 18 by 2030. If urgent measures are not taken in terms of basic services, employment and housing, the youth bulge will grow up in poverty.
Also, the number and proportion of older persons is increasing throughout the world, and urbanization in developing countries will concentrate an increasing proportion of the older population in urban areas.
Given the context of limited access and low coverage of social security in many countries, this increase in the numbers of older people will challenge the capacity of national and local governments.
The report said that between 2000 and 2030, Asia's urban population will increase from 1.36 billion to 2.64 billion, Africa's from 294 million to 742 million, and that of Latin America and the Caribbean from 394 million to 609 million.
As a result of these shifts, developing countries will have 80 per cent of the world's urban population by 2030.
The report noted that mega-cities (more than 10 million people) are still dominant but they have not grown to the sizes once projected. Today's mega-cities account for 4 per cent of the world's population and 9 per cent of all urban inhabitants.
Although smaller cities are less often in the news, 52 per cent of the world's urban population continue to live in settlements of less than 500,000 people. Moreover, they are expected to account for about half of the urban population growth between 2005 and 2015.
The report noted that China and India together contain 37 per cent of the world's total population, thus, their approaches to urban growth are particularly critical to the future of humankind.
India's urban areas still hold less than 30 per cent of the total population, but this is expected to rise to 40.7 per cent by 2030. It is projected that in less than a decade, more than half the Chinese population, some 870 million people, will be urbanites.
Another main finding in the report has been that until recently, rural settlements were the epicentre of poverty and human suffering. Poverty, however, is now increasing more rapidly in urban areas than in rural areas, but has received far less attention.
Hundreds of millions live in poverty in the cities of low- and middle-income nations, and their numbers are sure to swell in the coming years. Slum dwellers of the new Millennium are no longer a few thousand in a few cities of a rapidly industrialising continent. They include one out of every three city dwellers - a billion people, or a sixth of the world's population.
Over 90 per cent of slum dwellers today are in the developing world, said the report, pointing out that South Asia has the largest share, followed by Eastern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. China and India together have 37 per cent of the world's slums.
According to the report, in sub-Saharan Africa, urbanisation has become virtually synonymous with slum growth - 72 per cent of the region's urban population lives under slum conditions, compared to 56 per cent in South Asia. The slum population of sub-Saharan Africa almost doubled in 15 years, reaching nearly 200 million in 2005.
Describing some of the stark realities of slum life, the report pointed out for instance that sharing three toilets and one shower with 250 households is not at all unusual in cities of sub-Saharan Africa.
The United Nations Millennium Declaration recognized the importance of addressing the situation of slum dwellers in reducing overall poverty and advancing human development. Despite the strength of this commitment, monitoring progress on the situation of slum dwellers has been a challenge, said the report.
The report also noted that the space taken up by urban localities is increasing faster than the urban population itself. Between 2000 and 2030, the world's urban population is expected to increase by 72 per cent, while the built-up areas of cities of 100,000 people or more could increase by 175 per cent.
Recent estimates, based on satellite imagery, indicate that all urban sites (including green as well as built-up areas) cover only 2.8 per cent of the Earth's land area. This means that about 3.3 billion people occupy an area slightly smaller than Japan.
The report said that urban growth today is land-intensive - by 2030, developing countries will triple their urban land area, and industrialized countries by 2.5 times.
Another main contributor to urban sprawl, according to the report, is peri-urbanisation: the establishment of economic and residential activities in transitional zones between countryside and city, where land and labour are cheaper and less closely regulated.
Globalisation, which favours large facilities on large tracts of land, encourages the process.
The report however said that there is no consensus about urban sprawl, except that it is not sustainable in its current forms. "The issue will not resolve itself: There is no invisible hand to order urban growth."
Countries may have to revive the urban and regional planning functions which structural adjustment and breakneck globalisation have put on the back burner. A "city-region" approach, reaching out to, and coordinating current urban and local governments, would address social and environmental as well as economic concerns.
Noting that cities are highly vulnerable to natural crises and disasters, the UN population agency said that adopting the right approaches in anticipation of urban growth can also prevent many of the environmental problems linked to urbanisation.
Between 1980 and 2000, 75 per cent of the world's total population lived on areas affected by a natural disaster. In 1999, there were over 700 major natural disasters, causing more than $100 billion in economic losses and thousands of victims.
The report noted that the response of national and municipal governments to urban growth has often been to try to discourage, prevent or even reverse migration, despite the fact that migration can actually be beneficial.
But it is a failed policy, one that has resulted in less housing for the poor and increased slum growth. It also limits opportunities for the urban poor to improve their lives and to contribute fully to their communities and neighbourhoods.
City authorities and urban planners should make it a priority to provide for the shelter needs of the urban poor. They should offer the poor secure tenure on land that is outfitted with power, water and sanitation services. Those living in poor communities should have access to education and health care and should be encouraged to build their own homes.
Noting that most urban growth results from natural increase rather than migration, the report suggested that to reduce the pace of growth, policymakers should support interventions such as poverty reduction initiatives, investments in the empowerment of women, education and health, including reproductive health and family planning services.
The report said that overall, economic liberalisation may have had a negative effect on poverty reduction in general and on women in particular.
Policymakers and planners need to harness the potential of cities to improve the lives of all.
In this respect, the report outlined three initiatives: accept the right of poor people to the city, abandoning attempts to discourage migration and prevent urban growth; adopt a broad and long-term vision of the use of urban space, such as providing minimally serviced land for housing and planning in advance to promote sustainable land use both within cities and in surrounding areas; and begin a concerted international effort to support strategies for the urban future.
- Third World Network Features
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US under President Bush: Its
negative image overseas
Barrister Harun ur Rashid
The image of the US under the Bush administration overseas has been a catastrophic after the launch of the Iraqi war in March 2003.
Democrat Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia aptly described the image of his country as follows: "Today I weep for my country. No more is the image4 of America one of strong, yet benevolent peacekeeper... Around the globe, our friends mistrust us, our word is disputed, our intentions are questioned. We flaunt our superpower status with arrogance,"
Another Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts also indicated that the Iraqi war was launched on false pretences and said further: " By going to war in Iraq, we have strained our ties with long-standing allies around the world-allies whose help we clearly and urgently need on intelligence, on law enforcement and militarily. We have made America more hated in the world and made the war on terrorism harder to win."
On 27th June, the Washington-based Pew Research Centre has released a report that distrust of the US has intensified across the world. It said that "anti-Americanism since 2002 has deepened. It has worsened among America's European allies and is very, very bad in the Muslim world".
Majority of countries reject the main planks of current US foreign policy and express distaste for American-style democracy, the survey found. Respondents worldwide not only want Washington to pull US troops out of Iraq as soon as possible but also seek a rapid end to American and NATO military intervention in Afghanistan, now in its sixth year.
The survey, conducted in April and May, is by far the largest Pew has carried out since 2002, covering 47 countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Americas and assessing the opinions of more than 45,000 people.
Over the past five years, favourable ratings for the US have decreased in 26 of the 33 countries. Pew report said : "Global distrust of American leadership is reflected in increasing disapproval of the cornerstone of US foreign policy." Many think that Iraq would go down in history as the greatest disaster in American foreign policy.
Asked by the Pew research project, whether they liked American ideas about democracy, they sent back an unflattering message. In many countries, the answer was overwhelmingly "no". Negative views prevailed in 33 of 47 countries.
The poll has an interesting reading and found among others:
The country where America's image is worst is Turkey, a NATO ally, where only 9% per cent have a favourable view, down from 52% per cent before the US went into war with Afghanistan and Iraq.
In Germany, traditionally one of the closest allies, only 30% per cent have a positive view, down from 78% before President Bush took office in January 2001
Support for America's so-called war on terrorism has plummeted since 2002, especially in Europe,, where US practices against inmates at the Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib prisons have been harshly condemned.
There is a widespread perception that the US under President Bush acts unilaterally in making international policy decisions. This is especially powerful in Europe, shared by 90% in Sweden, 89% in France, 70% or more in Britain, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, Slovakia, and Spain.
A full 83% per cent Canadians believe that their neighboour ignores their interests, Middle Easterners overwhelmingly share this view, as do many Asians, including US ally-countries, South Korea and Japan.
About the crisis in the Middle East, Arabs in the region were pessimistic with more than 70% per cent in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the Palestinian territories believing that "the rights and needs of Palestinian people cannot be taken care of as long as the state of Israel exists."
This negative image of America exists although the State Department spends reportedly US$1 billion per year to reverse the image and President Bush's close friend from Texas Karen Hughes has been appointed as the Under Secretary of State for building positive image around the world.
The difficulty, according to George Soros, a billionaire in US, is that America had fallen into hands of extremist ideologues, led by Vice-President Dick Cheney, and former Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz. According to him, they have successfully manipulated a born-again President Bush and a feel-good public. But there is a reality that exceeds their comprehension and that has rendered their policies counterproductive.
Soros further has stated in his book titled "The Age of Fallibility" (2006) that the root cause of trouble "is a false metaphor, the war on terror. It has done terrible damage to our standing in the world and endangered our open society at home."
US cannot start repairing the damage until it is ready to repudiate the false metaphor of the war on terror. Fighting terror with war is like fighting fire with petrol. War is fuel for terrorism, not a deterrent. What is the true deterrent? Peace, love and understanding are some of the most powerful weapons against anti-terrorism. That means winning the hearts and minds of people who are engaged in violence.
The writer is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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Iraqi sex slaves recount ordeals
Sahar al-Haideri in Mosul
Asma's family was facing dire financial problems when a man in his 60s came to her father with an offer they couldn't refuse: he said he would hire Asma for 200 US dollars a month to help take care of his wife, who was handicapped.
Asma's mother is blind and her father is disabled, leaving them struggling to make ends meet. The man assured the couple that Asma could visit them, and that he would raise her with his daughters. The impoverished family took him up on the offer, but Asma, 17, had no idea what was in store for her.
"My work was not only in the kitchen; I had to have sex with son of the man who hired me and his four or five friends," she said in an interview after fleeing a life of sexual slavery. "I left my father's house a virgin and now I am..."
She stopped speaking. Her father said nothing except, "I put my trust in God."
The deteriorating security situation and absence of law and order has allowed sexual slavery to grow in Iraq, with traffickers able to sell victims without fear of punishment.
According to the US State Department's Trafficking in Persons Report, issued in June, Iraqi women and children are forced into prostitution and trafficked inside Iraq and abroad, to countries like Syria, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Iran.
In the volatile north-western city of Mosul, near the Syrian border, girls and young women from poor and illiterate families are particularly vulnerable to sexual exploitation. Many of those hired as domestic servants end up becoming sex slaves.
Khaled, 45, who readily admits to involvement in the sex trade, wears jeans and a yellow T-shirt with four or five rings on his fingers and bracelets around his wrist. This reporter witnessed him speaking to a client about whether he preferred a brown or white girl or woman as a sex slave.
"I know some families who are ready to have their daughters work to earn a living for them," he said. "Some ask me if [their daughters] can only work in kitchens, while others try to close their eyes and pretend that they have no idea that their daughters are being used as prostitutes."
Other women seek Khaled out on their own, but don't always know the full extent of his business.
Zaineb, 20, is a thin and beautiful woman with light-coloured hair. She felt financially responsible for her family because her father was arrested by the US military, her mother was ill and she had younger sisters that needed support. Zaineb got a job through Khaled, but to her horror discovered that she had been forced into prostitution.
"I [have to] sleep with different men each night," said Zaineb, who managed to contact IWPR. "[My boss] and his friends always take me to a farm, where they get drunk, and then have sex with me. I cry, asking for help from my father and mother, but how can they hear me?"
Victims of sexual slavery in Iraq have little support from the police or the courts. Iraqi law only criminalises the sexual exploitation of children.
Many women are tricked into sex slavery in Iraq with the promise of a new life in the Gulf.
Khaled convinced 18-year-old Alia's family that a man in the Gulf wanted to marry her, and paid for her passport and new clothes.
"Like any other bride, I was happy," she said. "But I discovered after I travelled to the Gulf that the bridegroom was a nightclub manager who used many other Iraqi girls for prostitution. I managed to flee after 10 humiliating months.
"I was screaming when one of [the men] had sex with me; they considered me a slave that they had bought. I lost my dreams, hopes and future."
The state department report noted that the Iraqi government did not prosecute any trafficking cases this year, nor did it offer protection for victims or make efforts to prevent or document trafficking. It also said efforts needed to be made to "curb the complicity of public officials in the trafficking of Iraqi women".
The names of people mentioned in this story have been changed to protect their identity.
Sahar al-Haideri was an IWPR journalist working in Mosul. She was murdered there in June 2007.
- Institute of War and Peace Report
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After Sharm talks, more of nothing
How far is Middle East peace?
Peter Hirschberg at Jerusalem
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's announcement late last month at a summit in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh that he plans to release 250 Fatah prisoners in Israeli jails took the leaders attending and the media by surprise. But will this unexpected gesture, aimed at bolstering Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, be enough to produce a different outcome to that of all previous Sharm summits, which have turned out to be little more than elaborate photo opportunities?
In 1996, after a series of Hamas suicide bombings inside Israeli cities killed 60 people in less than two weeks, an array of world leaders, including then U.S. President Bill Clinton, gathered in Sharm with former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres and former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, in a bid to boost Peres ahead of a national election. Peres lost and hardline Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu came to power.
In 2000, leaders again gathered in Sharm to promote the peace process. Again Arafat attended, this time with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak. A few months later, the second Palestinian Intifadah erupted and early in 2001 Barak was voted out of office.
In early 2005, former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Sharm. The two declared a mutual end to hostilities. Sharon said he hoped the summit would mark "the re-launching of the process for a better future that will lead us towards mutual respect and peace in the Middle East." Abbas said the Palestinians "look forward to that day and hope it will come quickly when the language of negotiations will replace the language of bullets."
That day still looks a long way off. Earlier this month, Hamas seized control of Gaza, killing dozens of Fatah members in the process. And, earlier this week, Israel launched its deepest raid into Gaza in six months, killing 12 Palestinians, among them three civilians.
In addition to the release of prisoners, Israel has also agreed to transfer to Abbas a portion of the hundreds of millions of dollars in customs duties it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and which it froze after Hamas came to power last year and refused to changes its policy of not recognising Israel. Olmert also announced at the summit that he and Abbas would meet every two weeks.
These measures are part of a policy adopted by Israel in the wake of the Hamas takeover of Gaza, whereby Olmert has said he wants to reward the more moderate Palestinian forces Abbas and his Fatah movement in the West Bank, and squeeze the extremists-Hamas in Gaza.
But it will take a lot more than the release of a handful of prisoners-there are thousands in Israeli jails-and the freeing up of funds to boost Abbas. The release of only Fatah prisoners could also paint the Palestinian leader as being in league with Israel-an image Hamas is already trying to cultivate.
Abbas is also under pressure from Arab states to renew his dialogue with Hamas. If he does, it could endanger implementation of the steps Israel has announced over the last week as Olmert has made it clear he is now willing to deal with Abbas because the Palestinian leader has disbanded the Hamas-led national unity government and severed ties with the Islamic movement.
In their public statements at the end of the summit, neither Olmert nor Abbas mentioned the word "Hamas." Neither did their host, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, nor Jordan's King Abdullah, who also attended.
But the Islamic movement was uppermost in everyone's mind. And Hamas made sure that even if it wasn't in attendance, its presence was felt. Hours before the summit began, it released an audio recording of an Israeli soldier it has held captive in Gaza for the last year. In words clearly dictated by his captors, Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who was snatched from an army base inside Israel, complains that the Israeli government is not doing enough to free him.
Negotiations over the release of Shalit have been ongoing for months, with Hamas demanding the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails-according to some reports up to 1,000 -- in exchange for the Israeli soldier.
Some in Israel viewed the release of the audio tape, without any demand by the Islamic movement for a quid pro quo, as a sign that Hamas is becoming increasingly desperate to escape its growing isolation, especially now that it is solely responsible for the 1.2 million residents of Gaza. But there were others who read it differently: the release of the tape was a clear message from Hamas that despite all the efforts to marginalise it, the Islamic movement cannot be ignored.
At Sharm, Olmert had a message for the Palestinian people: "We are not indifferent to their pain, we do not ignore the need to end it, through mutual understanding, compromise and reconciliation," he said.
"As Prime Minister of Israel, I tell you that we have no desire to rule over you, we do not presume to run your lives, we have no intention of deciding for you. I believe that the day is coming when you can live in your own state, alongside the State of Israel."
Fine words, but eerily reminiscent of those uttered by previous Israeli leaders at the exact same location. Based on past experience, neither Israelis nor Palestinians will have been glued to their TV screens as the cameras recorded their leaders filing in and then out of yet another summit in Sharm el-Sheikh.
- Inter Press Service
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Sri Lankan govt. plans
a change of approach
Jehan Perera in Colombo
The Sri Lankan government is contemplating new initiatives to revive the peace process. It is hoped that the government will offer to stop fighting after having cleared up the last remaining LTTE stronghold in the east. By taking control of Thoppigala forest the government will have accomplished a major feat that previous governments failed to do. The government is now in a politically strong position with its Sinhalese voter base to offer the international community to have peace talks with the Tamil guerrillas.
Taking a respite from war is also likely to be politically popular with the electorate today. The country is reeling economically from the impact of the ongoing war. The increase in the defence budget has been phenomenal and is virtually double what it was last year. Although economic analysts may attribute the economic crisis to poor economic management and a lack of vision in developmental thinking, most people believe that the economic misfortunes that they are being subjected to have their origins in the war. In addition, the hope of a quick military victory over the LTTE has receded with the passing of over a year of sustained warfare.
There are other compelling reasons also for the government to make known that it is contemplating a change of approach. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has a pragmatic sense of balance, and probably is aware of the fact that the government's unabashed military adventure, regardless of the human costs, has earned it the disfavour of the international community. There is increasing pressure from the major donor countries on the government urging it to change track.
The donor co-chairs to the peace process who met recently in Oslo are reported to have agreed to put pressure on the government to accept a fou- point agenda to end the ongoing conflict and resume peace talks. The representatives of the United States, European Union, Japan and Norway have apparently come to a common position to reject a military solution and re-affirm their faith in the possibility of a negotiated political solution. They have also called for an end to human rights abuses by both the government and Tamil guerrillas and insisted that the Norwegian facilitators should be given access by the government to meet with the LTTE in the Wanni. Fourth, they have urged the government to come up with a credible political package through the All Party Conference process to address the ethnic conflict.
Dual strategy
In deciding to hint at a change of approach the government would also be cognisant of mounting internal criticism of the government's performance. The abortive attempt by the government to resurrect the Criminal Defamation law can be seen as an indicator of the government's concerns that media criticism is eroding its credibility. Sections of the media have been reflective of urban discontent, and been outspoken in their criticism of the government's strategy of a war against terrorism and the high level of expenditures and corruption entailed in it.
So far the government has sought to justify most of its regressive actions by reference to the requirements of a war against terrorism. There is a pattern of regression by the government that is unhealthy and which needs to be changed. The abductions and political killings taking place evoke memories of the period 1988-89 that were thought to be confined to the past.
It appears that the government's willingness to contemplate peace talks with the Tamil guerrillas is combined with a determination to continue with military operations to counter the LTTE. This suggests that the government's new approach will, at best, be a two-pronged one, reminiscent of that of the government of former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, who herself declared a war for peace against the LTTE. However, in the latter half of her second and final term of office, the former President lost faith in this dual track approach, and instead focused only on the political approach.
By way of contrast, there is little to suggest that in the one and a half years since his election, President Rajapaksa and his war advisors have reached the level of enlightenment that former President Kumaratunga took nine years to realise. Accordingly, President Rajapaksa's likely approach will be to give assurances of his government's commitment to a political solution to the ethnic conflict, but also continuing with the war against the Tamil guerrillas. In such circumstances, the likelihood of the military prong keeping its dominant place in the thinking and emphasis of the government is very strong.
Only answer
Tragically the war appears to have a beguiling allure to both the Rajapaksa government and to the Tamil guerrillas. Those who support the government's military campaign believe that the government has to defeat the LTTE in order to defeat the threat of Tamil separatism. On the other hand, those who support the LTTE's military campaign would believe that the Tamil guerrillas have to wrest Tamil rights, and Tamil territory, by force of arms away from the government. But both dealing with symptoms, not the causes. The fact is that the ethnic conflict existed before the LTTE was formed or the Rajapaksa government came into power.
The main argument against the notion of a military solution is that eradicating a symptom cannot end the cause of the problem. Even if the government were to defeat the LTTE on the battlefields of Sri Lanka, it will not be able to eradicate the Tamil nationalism. The desire of Tamil people to enjoy equal rights and to have real decision making power in Sri Lanka, whether in the north and east or in Colombo, is not limited to the LTTE-controlled Wanni. It exists in the same measure in other parts of the north and east, in Colombo and elsewhere in the country. In addition, there is a vast reservoir of Tamil nationalism in the Tamil expatriate community that lives abroad, that no amount of military solutions in Sri Lanka can ever hope to subdue.
There is only one answer to Tamil nationalism and that is a just political solution that accords with universal human rights principles. The best hope of arriving at such a political solution today is for the government to re-invigorate the All Party Conference process, as recommended by the donor co-chairs. There are two necessary steps for this. The first is for the government to heed the views of its old left and ethnic minority coalition partners, and improve the proposal that the ruling party has made to the All Party Conference. The second is to include the Tamil National Alliance into the All Party Conference process instead of seeking to exclude them, as the government has done over the past year and a half.
Both of these steps require a fundamental re-orientation in the government's approach to the ethnic conflict. The government will need to stop placing its faith in the power of Sinhalese nationalism to deliver a military victory over Tamil nationalism. It will need to stop being a hostage to Sinhalese nationalism, and recognise that Sinhalese nationalism cannot provide either military victory or economic prosperity. The TNA parliamentarians as the elected representatives of the Tamil people have the duty to represent the democratic aspirations of the Tamil people without simply being the pawns of the LTTE. Without these two steps, the government's promise of a new approach to the ethnic conflict is unlikely to come to fruition.
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ISLAMABAD DIARY
Jonaid Iqbal
We are happy to report that with the arrest of the chief cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz (and his wife, the chief matron of notorious Jama'a Hafsa) as well as wilful surrender of 1200 male and female students, holed up in the fortified sanctuary of two seminaries, the Lal Masjid saga has now come to an end. About 16 people, including two ranger officers and a journalist died in the incident.
Thus, the government has earned huge kudos for showing patience and restraint in using force in what was stated would be an armed operation. It put up a show of force with tanks, armed carriers, and four cobra gun ships cruising over the Lal Masjid. None of them had to be used.
The government showed its wisdom by going on extending deadline, hour by hour to give the holed up students a chance to surrender.
Full amnesty was promised to female students and children who would come out. Those surrendering their arms were promised cash award of Rs. 5000, as expenses for journey home.
The big news is that Maulana Abdul Aziz tried to run away disguised in a burqa, but he was immediately spotted by smart police women on duty. Asia's brother and cohort, Mauling Abdul Rushed Ghazi, the man who was running the show at the All Mashed, had promised by 3 a.m. Thursday morning to surrender with his jihad mischief mongers.
After his brother had been arrested, security personnel kept calling him to surrender he promised to do so at about 3 a.m. On Thursday morning with 300 male companions still inside the seminaries (only for males) and Jamia Hafsa (for girls), while, by about ten p.m. on Wednesday night 1200 male and female students had surrendered.
President Musharraf took the decision to act against the two militant clerics, (Maulana Aziz and his brother Rashid) who set up a baton wielding moral brigade to bring sinners on the path of righteousness. He felt relieved and expressed satisfaction at the success of his strategy.
The brainwashed students kept up their spree, visiting music shops, burning CDs, taking alleged sinful ladies and police constable hostages (and later releasing them).
The civil society made protests but the government procrastinated, which many people, including Opposition leaders blamed that the government was in league with the Jamia officials and their boys and girls do act oddly on occasions when some thing would go wrong to divert public opinion.
A week ago a gang of Hafsa girls, barged into an acupuncture centre, and took nine Chinese including three girls hostage in the mistaken assumption that the centre was offering a kind of massage service for males, which sensible girls should refrain from. The Chinese taken hostage were released the next evening after a deluge of protests, including from the Islamic clerics.
But the Chinese officially protested with the government asking them to ensure security for their citizens. It said that their nine citizens were doing business of acupuncture cure under licence.
That probably did it. The government lost patience with the Jamia clerics and thought enough was enough and moved in to take action on Tuesday morning. But it was a botched affair on that day, and some thought it rather strange that police and rangers sent in could not handle a group of about 5000 clerics and women students, shut up within the fortified sanctuary of the seminary.
Obviously, many of them were equipped with modern weapons, such as Kalashnikov, pistols and gas mask. President Musharraf, speaking at a seminar at the National Defence College last week, promised to take action if the media did not project dead bodies which he was certain would result in a shout out. He said there were suicide bombers and lot of arms inside. This proved to be true when people saw seminary boys openly brandishing arms.
It now seems from hindsight that the government wanted to establish that the clerics inside had latest weapons before it took action and on Wednesday morning troops moved in, surrounding the building, enclosing barbed wire all around and imposing curfew in the surrounding locality. The government took care to announce amnesty to all who would come out peacefully, and those who would surrender their arms would be provided Rs. 5000 as expense to go home.
Opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rahman also made his contribution, advising the two cleric leaders to save bloodshed and surrender to the government, offering to get some government concession for them. But in the end it did not work out.
According to reports the cleric brothers were prepared to surrender arms only to a committee of religious scholars, but not to the government. They speak nothing of giving themselves up before the security forces.
On Tuesday the residents of the city spent a harrowing day after witnessing the torching of the building of the Environment Ministry by the Hafsa boys. The police and rangers moved in the morning to cordon off the area but it was resisted by clerics and male and girl students of adjacent Jamia Hafsa.
A cross shooting ensued between the clerics and the security agencies went on all through the day and night, leaving behind 16 dead, including one TV cameraman and a girl student.
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