Bush manages Democrats thru' Pelosi

Fake fight over funding Iraq war

Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair

Has the end of America's war on Iraq been brought closer by the recent vote in the House of Representatives? On March 23, the full House voted 218 to 212 to set a timeline on the withdrawal of US troops, with September 1, 2008, as the putative date after which war funding might be restricted to withdrawal purposes only. It's not exactly a stringent deadline. It only requires Bush to seek Congressional approval before extending the occupation and spending new funds to do so.
   On Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi's website we find her portrait of what US troops will be doing in Iraq following this withdrawal or "redeployment," should it occur late next year on the bill's schedule. "US troops remaining in Iraq may only be used for diplomatic protection, counterterrorism operations and training of Iraqi Security Forces." But does this not bear an eerie resemblance to Bush's presurge war plan? Will the troops being redeployed out of Iraq even come home? No, says Pelosi, as does Senate Majority leader Harry Reid. These troops will go to Afghanistan to battle al Qaeda.
   So the bill essentially adopts and enforces Bush's war plan and attendant "benchmarks" as spelled out in his January 10 speech. On March 27, the Senate voted 50-48 to start withdrawal in March 2008, said schedule being nonbinding on the President. At any rate, Bush has promised to veto all schedules for withdrawal coming out of Congress. Meanwhile the war goes on, with a supplemental, Democrat-approved $124 billion, more than Bush himself requested. As Congress considers the half trillion-dollar FY 2008 Pentagon budget, there is no sign that the Democratic leadership will permit any serious attack on further war funding.
   Thus when it comes to the actual war, which has led to the bloody disintegration of Iraqi society, the deaths of up to 5,000 Iraqis a month, the death and mutilation of US soldiers every day, nothing at all has happened since the Democrats rode to victory in November courtesy of popular revulsion in America against the war. Bush's reaction to this censure at the polls was to appoint a new commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, to oversee the troop surge in Baghdad and Anbar province. The Democrats voted unanimously to approve Petraeus and now they have okayed the money for the surge. Bush hinted that he would like to widen the war to Iran. Nancy Pelosi, chastened by catcalls at the annual AIPAC convention, swiftly abandoned all talk of compelling Bush to seek congressional authorization to make war on Iran.
   Although nothing of any significance actually happened on March 23, to read liberal commentators one would think we'd witnessed some profound upheaval, courtesy of Nancy Pelosi's skilful uniting of the various Democratic factions. What she accomplished in practice was the neutering of the antiwar faction. In the end only eight Democrats (plus two Republicans) voted against the Supplemental Appropriation out of opposition to the war. The balance of 202 no votes came from Republicans who opposed Pelosi's bill as anti-Bush and antiwar. So, in Congress 420 representatives officially have no problem with the war in Iraq continuing until the eve of the next election. Ten are foursquare against it, which is more or less where Congress has always been, in terms of committed naysayers.
   Antiwar forces in Congress are now weaker. Take Sam Farr of Santa Cruz and Peter DeFazio of Eugene, both Congressmen with large progressive constituencies. In the last Republican-controlled Congress they were stout opponents of the war, voting against authorization to invade and money for the war thereafter. No longer. Pelosi handed Farr bailout money for his district's spinach growers and DeFazio got funding for schools and libraries. Who knows? Perhaps a few dollars of the latter will go to wheelchair access for the paraplegics who will come home from Iraq over the next sixteen months, maimed in the war for which DeFazio just voted more money.
   Seeking to explain his yes vote for Pelosi's war-funding bill, Farr issued a press release saying, "This bill brings our troops home." But he also told the San Francisco Chronicle, "They want to go gung-ho. They want to escalate in Iraq. So what would our 'no' votes mean?"
   Mr. Farr, they would have meant more votes against the war, and had there been four more holdouts against Pelosi's palm-greasing, these no votes would have monkey-wrenched her bill, thus demonstrating that it is impossible to get a majority in the House of Representatives to endorse a piece of fakery designed to deceive the very people who put the Democrats back in power.
   The real antiwar movement proved itself incapable of pressuring House Democrats to hold out. The January 27 demonstration organized by United for Peace and Justice did involve active lobbying of Democrats to hold their feet to the fire, but the demo itself was really a Bush-bashing session, with scant reminders that Bush's war has been and continues to be a bipartisan project.
   Tom Matzzie, the Washington director of MoveOn, said after the March 23 vote, "Bush is our worst enemy and our best ally." In other words, when Bush savaged Pelosi's bill with accusations that it gives aid and comfort to the enemy, he cemented Democratic support for it. The focus stays always on Bush, over whom MoveOn will never have influence, as opposed to Democrats, whom MoveOn could have pressured with its three million­strong email list. But rather than rousing its members to accuse Pelosi of enabling the war, MoveOn carefully limited the available options in polling its members. It only asked whether they were for, against or not sure about war funding as dealt with in her bill.
   MoveOn could have phrased it another way: Do you support the Pelosi plan (fully describing it); do you support the Barbara Lee plan (funding exclusively for gradual withdrawal of US troops); do you reject war funding altogether?
   Will Congressional opposition to the war now get stronger, anchored by Pelosi's bill? Not likely. The window of opportunity for that flew open right after the election, when antiwar forces roared in outrage after being snubbed by Pelosi and Reid, who omitted the war and the Patriot Act from their must-do agenda. Instead, the Democratic leadership chose merely to appear to oppose the war while continuing to fund it. This they have now achieved, amid the satisfied cheers of the progressive sector.
   Courtesy: CounterPunch
   Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair are the authors of End Times: the Death of the Fourth Estate

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With more foreign troops things in Helmand get worse

IWPR correspondent in Lashkar Gah, Afghanistan

Over the past weeks, Lashkar Gah has become increasingly unstable, with bombs and murder almost a daily fare. Now, for the first time in Helmand, the Taleban have killed a woman.
   It has been a bad few days in Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah, with a high profile kidnapping and murder followed by a suicide bomb at police headquarters. Residents say the Taleban are becoming more and more visible in Lashkar Gah, and enjoy support among some segments of the population.
   On March 27, a suicide bomber dressed in army uniform attempted to assassinate the chief of police.
   "A man dressed as an Afghan National Army soldier came to police headquarters saying he needed to file an application for a passport," said police chief Nabijan Mullahkhel. "He was targeting me, but the police stopped him at the gate checkpoint. So he blew himself up, killing four police and injuring two more."
   Another police official confirmed the incident, saying that a police commander was among the dead. He added that in addition to police, two civilians were wounded in the explosion.
   The blast could be heard throughout the centre of Lashkar Gah, and was followed by rapid gunfire. Local residents say the police were shooting into the air to discourage crowds of onlookers from gathering at the site.
   A high-ranking Taleban commander in Helmand took responsibility for the blast, although his estimate of the casualties differed from that given by police.
   "We killed a lot of police, and injured many more," said the commander, who did not want to be named.
   The news from Helmand's capital is getting worse by the day. As the spring offensive kicks into high gear throughout the province, Lashkar Gah itself is becoming a more frequent target of insurgent activity.
   On March 26, the head of the women's prison was kidnapped and murdered, in what her family says is a politically motivated killing.
   Zargola, the prison warden, was seized by two men on motorcycles as she left her house in the morning, as she set out to visit her adult daughter, police officials said. A short time later, her body was found in Bollan, a district approximately one kilometre from the capital. She had been shot six times.
   Mohammad Wais, chief detective with the provincial crime squad, confirmed the killing. "We found her body," he said.
   The Taleban claimed responsibility for the murder. "We killed Zargola," said Qari Muhammad Yousuf, spokesman for the insurgents in Helmand. Zargola was a mother of three. Her elderly husband was unemployed and relied on her salary.
   Her eldest son, Amanullah, 27, runs a music shop in Lashkar Gah.
   "My mother had been in this job for a long time, although she could neither read nor write," said Amanullah. "She was killed because she worked for the government."
   While Zargola is the first woman to be kidnapped and killed in Helmand province, she is not the first to be targeted. Fawzia Ulumi, head of the official women's affairs department in Helmand province, has received numerous death threats, and narrowly escaped assassination several months ago.
   "Two gunmen on motorcycles shot at me in my car," she said. "I survived, but my driver was killed." While even the governor, Asadullah Wafa, acknowledges that several of Helmand's 14 districts are under Taleban control, the provincial capital itself has remained relatively stable until now.
   But in recent days, residents have reported seeing armed Taleban patrols on the street at night.
   "The police drive right by them and do nothing," said one reporter in the town. Residents of Lashkar Gah, especially those who fear they might be targeted, are worried by the growing boldness of the Taleban.
   Sher Mohammad, 56, lives a few kilometres from the centre of the city. He hides his identity from his neighbours in the Tor Taang district because he fears retribution from the insurgents.
   "I am a government employee," he said. "But no one knows where I live. I hide because I'm afraid that the Taleban will come for me in the night."
   He has good reason to be worried. One Taleb, speaking to a reporter, said that his entire job consisted of ferreting out government employees.
   "We first leave them letters, warning them to leave the government or else they will be dealt with harshly," he said. "If they do not obey, then we know what to do with them."
   But despite such tough tactics, the insurgents have their supporters, even in Lashkar Gah.
   "Every night we are invited for dinner," said the Taleb, "And local shopkeepers give us top-up cards for our phones."
   Residents say one motive for engaging with the Taleban is that they fear that the Afghan government is unable to protect them. Support for the Taleban is a way of hedging their bets.
   "Security has become much worse compared with recent years," said Abdul Karim, 42. "The police are unable to provide security. There are killings, robberies, all kinds of atrocities. Two years ago, there were schools open all over the district, reconstruction was proceeding and the situation was getting better.
   "But with the arrival of more foreign soldiers, and the increase in numbers of police and army, things just keep getting worse."
   Afghan president Hamed Karzai gave a blistering tongue-lashing to the residents of Helmand on March 29, accusing them of perpetuating the violence and insurgency in their province.
   "I am not blaming Pakistan and other countries - I blame you, the local people," he thundered, addressing approximately 2,000 handpicked representatives in the central mosque of the provincial capital Lashkar Gah.
   "You are making problems. You do not want security in your province."
   This was Karzai's first visit to Helmand, arguably the most troubled of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Over the past year, bombings, kidnappings, and killings have multiplied as the Taleban have shifted their focus from neighbouring Kandahar.
   Helmand is also the centre of the poppy industry, supplying well over 40 per cent of Afghanistan's harvest. This makes Helmand alone the world's largest producer of opium, the raw material from which heroin is made.

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Proposed US missile bases in Poland and Czech intensify tensions in Europe

Markus Salzmann and Cezar Komorovsky

The announcement by the US government of plans to station a missile defence system in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic has led not only to an increasingly hostile atmosphere between Russia and the US, but also to considerable tensions inside the European Union as a result of an increasingly aggressive US foreign policy.
   According to the plans of the US government, a military base with up to 10 ballistic missiles is to be established in Poland as part of the satellite-based anti-missile defence system NMD (National Missile Defence). An associated radar system is to be erected in the Czech Republic. The official justification for this project is the alleged threat to the US from long-range nuclear missiles fired from the Middle East-i.e., Iran-and/or from North Korea.
   Since both states are far removed from possessing the technological means for such missile systems, it quickly became clear that the real aim of the project was two immediate competitors of US imperialism-Russia and China.
   Poland and the Czech Republic are close allies of the US and belong to the "coalition of the willing," which supported the US in its invasion and occupation of Iraq. At present, Poland has 900 soldiers stationed in Iraq, and the Czech Republic 100. Both nations are currently increasing their commitment in Afghanistan in order to relieve US troops in the country. Poland has recently sent an additional 1,000 troops, and the Czech Republic is currently preparing to supply helicopters and weapons for the occupation troops.
   As is the case with regard to participation in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the overwhelming majority of the population in both countries also reject the planned stationing of the anti-missile defence system. A recent poll by the agency STEM revealed that 70 per cent of Czechs are strongly opposed to the planned US military base. The poll also made clear that the issue is closely followed with interest by the population. Similar polls give figures of between 60 and 80 per cent of Poles who are also opposed to the stationing of US missiles on their soil.
   Widespread popular opposition to the aggressive policies of the Bush government has been completely ignored by the political elites ruling the two former Eastern bloc countries. After a meeting, the two heads of government, Mirek Topolanek, chairman of the conservative Czech Citizen's Party (ODS), and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of the right-conservative PiS in Poland, stressed their agreement with stationing the bases. After the meeting, Kaczynski declared: "We are both deeply convinced that one must make a decision in principle over Europe's security, including the stationing of a US anti-missile defence base." Czech Vice-Prime Minister Alexandr Vondra (independent) announced that Prague would officially respond to the official US request this March.
   Noteworthy is the way in which the Czech Greens have vehemently supported the US military plans. Green Party chief Martin Bursik and the independent foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg, who assumed his post with the support of the Greens, have expressed their unconditional support for the US proposals. A motion calling for a referendum on the issue was turned down at a Green party congress in mid-February without even going to a vote.
   To obtain the necessary majority in parliament for the new radar installation, the Czech government, consisting of a coalition between Topolanek's conservative ODS, the Christian Democrats and the Greens, needs the support of at least two Social Democrat (CSSD) deputies. Officially, the CSSD is the party of opposition, but the party leadership has ensured that the party backs the right-wing government. In response, Topolanek has promised the social-democratic party chief, Jiri Paroubek, a certain influence in policymaking.
   The public declarations of opposition to the bases by the CSSD are hypocritical to the core. It was the CSSD-led government that first held conversations with US representatives over the issue last year and signaled their agreement.
   In Poland, the very limited opposition in the country's ruling elite to the US bases arises from fears that blind obedience to Washington could strip the political clique in Warsaw of its last remaining popular support. From this standpoint, former Polish defence secretary Radoslaw Sikorski told the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza: "The anti-missile defence system proposed for Poland is an American system for the defence of the US. I am not a supporter of the regime in Teheran, but Poland maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, and we do not expect any Iranian missile attacks here in Warsaw."
   Sikorski was forced to resign at the beginning of February following his criticism of the political course followed by the Kaczynski brothers. Sikorski is not opposed to US plans in principle, but favours a tougher line of negotiation with the US together with the integration of NATO. The new Polish defence secretary, Alexander Szczyglo, who is firmly in the pocket of the Kaczynski brothers, has announced he will travel soon to Washington and give his government's reply to the American proposals.
   The Kaczynskis and their ruling PiS party are quite prepared to risk a further cabinet crisis in order to serve the interests of the US government. Andrzej Lepper, the vice-prime minister and head of the hard-line right-wing coalition partner Samoobrona, has demanded a referendum on the issue of the US bases-in opposition to the government's official line.
   The US plans have predictably met with considerable criticism in Moscow. At the Munich security conference in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin bluntly condemned US foreign policy. After it became clear that both the Polish and Czech governments were amenable to the US plans, Moscow reacted with an open threat. Russian general Nikolai Solovtsov explained that it would now be necessary to regard the sites for the proposed new missile system as a potential target for Russian missiles.
   Tensions rose further when it was announced that there were plans for the establishment of a further missile site in the Caucasus, possibly in Georgia, already the scene of the recent US-sponsored "Orange Revolution." This would be another major step towards an encirclement of Russia.
   
   Split in EU
   The increasing conflict between the US and Russia poses European Union powers with enormous problems. In 2003, Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary at the time, sought to divide Europe into "new" and "old" Europe, based on which nations were prepared to side with America. Now, a similar line of division has emerged in Europe in response to the planned anti-missile defence system.
   Up until now, all discussions over the stationing of the weapons system between the US, the Czech Republic and Poland have taken place outside of NATO, and most European politicians have reacted by stating that the missile system should be subordinated to the responsibility of NATO-a step that the US has so far rejected.
   Most European politicians are opposed to the US plans. The foreign minister of Luxembourg, Jean Asselborn (LSAP), expressed his hope that the European Union would be able to persuade Poland and the Czech Republic not to establish the bases. "We will not have stability in Europe," Asselborn warned, "if we force the Russians into a corner."
   German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Social Democratic Party-SPD) expressed cautious criticism of the US plans: "Bearing in mind that the planned bases move ever closer to Russia, this means that one should also have talked beforehand with Russia." The chairman of the SPD, Kurt Beck, was more to the point: "We must talk with one another and not just stick missiles in front of noses." The chairman of the German free-market Free Democratic Party (FDP), Guido Westerwelle, appealed to the German presidency of the European Union council: "Europe must not allow itself to be split." Gernot Erler, minister of state in the Foreign Office (SPD), warned of the possible arms race that could result.
   The Czech Vice-Prime Minister Vondra swept aside such doubts: "Germany is obviously somewhat jealous that the US, when it wants to speak with Europe, calls Prague and Warsaw instead of Berlin." Vondra spent some time in the US and has close contact with neo-conservative elements in Washington.
   Other European states have declared their support for the project-in particular, those eastern European states that participated in the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Recently, the Slovak government in Bratislava, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER), agreed to the setting up of a US radar and missile defence system in Slovakia. This option is being held open by US representatives in the event that problems arise in the negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic. Great Britain, which is also currently taking part in discussions with the US over participation in the defence system, has also welcomed the project.
   As is the case with regard to the current US plans for war against Iran, the German and French governments are hesitant to take an open stand against the US. German Chancellor Angela Merkel avoided raising the issue of the missile system at the recent European Union summit in Brussels, although some EU members, including France, had raised such a demand at the meeting of the EU foreign ministers held at the start of the week in Brussels.
   The political course being pursued by the US is quite capable of further disrupting international relations. The American missile defence system undermines the existing regulations governing medium-range nuclear disarmament and will inevitably provoke a new arms race.
   European attempts to integrate the American plans into the mechanism of NATO are aimed at preventing any further divisions in Europe. In addition, the European powers are very concerned that a US defence system set up on Moscow's doorstep could poison the relationship with Russia, with consequences for the supply of Russian raw materials, including oil and gas, to a number of European countries.
   Ulrich Weisser, former director of the planning staff in the German Defence Ministry, made just this point in the latest edition of the magazine International Policy. He describes good relations with Moscow as "political-strategic and also economic capital, which cannot possibly be overestimated in terms of its value for Europe and the world." Using the example of the US missile system, he expresses his regret that the "Russia policy developed effectively over decades" by Germany and France is now coming "under the fatal influence of the new member states in central Eastern Europe."
   With regard to the catastrophic policy of the US, the chaos in Iraq and US preparations for war against Iran, Weisser calls upon the "axis Paris-Berlin-Moscow" to recognise and implement its joint strategic interests in the Middle and Far East-a move that would undoubtedly lead to a further souring of the transatlantic relationship.

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Cairo youths merge western influences with a religious revival

Mariam Fam in Cairo

A play about an imaginary country grappling with foreign meddling recently opened on stage here. Combining comedy with serious words extolling the importance of faith and ethics, "The Code" was just the latest sign of a recent wave: Young, devout Muslims balancing a sense of fun and modernity with strict observance of the teachings of Islam.
   
   New wave
   * What's Happening: Affluent young Muslims in Cairo are mixing modern living with what they consider to be strict religious observance.
   * The Leaders: This Islamic revival was spawned by young preachers who wear Western-style suits and broadcast their messages on satellite TV.
   * The Struggle: Supporters say their way of life can counter extremism; critics worry that devout youth are promoting a more conservative society.
   They're putting on plays, making sleek videos and even wearing bikinis at the beach - but all with a correct Islamic twist. The plays have a religious moral, the videos are for songs praising the Prophet and the swimwear is limited to segregated settings.
   The trend is fueled by an Islamic revival that has attracted youths - many of them wealthy and exposed to Western cultures - in some Muslim countries and among second-generation Muslims in the West. Instead of an outright shunning of all Western influences and worldly pleasures, the idea is to adopt the elements they can reconcile with their Islamic identity.
   In rediscovering their faiths and striving to integrate Islam in their daily activities, some have become more religious than their parents were.
   The trend also is a manifestation of how some of the young in different Middle Eastern countries are trying to reshape their societies in small ways that the older generations didn't know.
   In Egypt - the Arab world's most populous country, which has grown more observant and conservative over the years - this Islamic revival was fueled by a group of young preachers who wear Western-style suits and communicate their religion in conversational language. Talking in mosques, homes and on satellite channels, these preachers - some using techniques that some feel are similar to Christian evangelical preachers' - are a far cry from the traditional clerics who dominated the airwaves for many years in flowing robes and turbans and a sterner language.
   "We can lead a happy life without committing sins," says preacher Mostafa Hosni, summing up the approach. Hosni hosts a weekly religious program on the Iqraa satellite channel that tries to reinforce exactly this theme through conversations with young guests.
   He says the old belief of some that being a good Muslim meant forsaking this world for the afterlife has unintentionally scared many of the young away from the religion for fear they would have to drastically change their lifestyles.
   An athletic-looking 28-year-old who once worked for Swiss multinational Nestlé, Hosni attended a two-year preacher-training program and now teaches "character building" at a private school in Egypt to help students live a proper Muslim life while preparing for successful careers. "We already offer them a high-standard international curriculum, so why not have this and as well as have an Islamic and moral identity?" he says.
   "In 20 years, the shape of the Muslim world will completely change," predicts Hosni. "The people are attracted to this form of moderate Islam."
   While supporters of the revival say it preaches moderation and can counter extremism, critics argue that it is superficial and is promoting a more conservative society behind a facade of modernity and tolerance.
   "What we need is a true vision of modern Islam. This means formulating positions on democracy, human rights and dealing with others," says Salah Eissa, a writer and self-described secular Muslim. "Modern Islam doesn't mean that I be a Muslim and talk on a cell phone."
   The debate about Islam's role in society and public life has generated tensions in Egypt with many liberals - especially in artistic circles feeling threatened. To offset the popularity of the Islamic opposition, the government has tried to project a more Islamic image of its own, allowing for the censoring or banning of some work deemed offensive to Islam, for instance.
   "You see civil servants who spend a good part of their day praying in the mosque and another good part trying to put their hands on public money, for instance," Eissa says. "The Egyptian society is suffering from a case of split personality."
   Many of Egypt's young Muslims are exposed to Western pop culture. While some embrace it, others feel uncomfortable with what they see as decadence or promiscuity.
   Playwright Ahmed Morsi was dismayed with the state of the commercial theater in Egypt, with its plentiful jokes, music and women dancing in skimpy clothes. So the 37-year-old former television correspondent founded a production company, "Luster of the East," which adheres, he believes, with Islamic values.
   "The Code," their latest comedy, tells the story of a country whose people are grappling with a foreign invasion. A main character urges the others - and the audience - to speak up against corruption and reconnect with their morals and faith.
   Any woman participating in the troupe's plays has to wear the Islamic veil, and there's no dancing, Morsi says. He expects the actors to live up to his vision offstage, too. "They have to be people in good standing. They cannot have immoral relationships. They can't drink [alcohol]."
   This sanitized theater has been criticized on the one hand by secular critics who complain that art shouldn't be subjected to self-censorship and religious standards and on the other by some conservatives objecting to the music in some plays.
   Morsi, however, says his group is inspiring some amateurs. "That's what worries some in the field: that at some point we may become the mainstream."
   At a performance of "The Code" on a recent night in a downtown Cairo theater, the audience appeared to be largely conservative. "The most important thing is that these plays observe the teachings of the religion and the morals of society," said Rehab Mohammed, a 31-year-old wearing a veil that covered all but her eyes. "Before, we didn't have such an outlet. We used to feel deprived."
   Mrs. Mohammed said she also felt deprived of proper music until a recent surge of Islamic songs by singers like Sami Yusuf.
   Yusuf, a Briton born to Azerbaijani parents, presents pop songs in slick videos with religious lyrics praising Prophet Muhammad. For some of his young fans, Yusuf's boyish good looks and stylish attire have made it not just right but also cool to be an observant Muslim.
   More singers followed suit with religious clips airing on satellite channels alongside love songs featuring scantily clad singers.
   Similarly, observant young Muslim women found a new outlet in private female-only beaches that opened in the upscale Marina resort on Egypt's northern coast. On secluded strips of sand where cameras are prohibited, the faithful and veiled replace Islamic attire with bikinis to tan, swim and dance - away from men's eyes.

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Sri Lanka: Ceasefire needed for a humanitarian cause

Jehan Perera in Colombo

The shock of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) air attack on the Katunayake air force base adjoining Colombo's international airport is not likely to fade away in the near future. The air attack by the Tamil Tigers and the government's response through air bombardment of LTTE-held areas, are indications of the path of military escalation that lies ahead. Following their successful hit and run operation, the Tamil Tigers' air wing may be emboldened to execute more such operation. The main corrective action that the government appears to be taking is to beef up its air defence by spending more money on a surface-to-air missile system and upgrade the radar system. The resilient economy is expected to bear the cost.
   Ironically, Sri Lanka has become two societies, the much larger one outside the north and east which is relatively prosperous and free, while the other is ruined and terrorised. The release of the Central Bank's annual report for 2006, which shows a 7.7 growth figure for the economy and a low unemployment rate of only around 6 percent demonstrates the resilience of the Sri Lankan economy and its ability to contain the instability caused by the ongoing warlike situation. A salient feature in the current phase of conflict between the government and LTTE has been the containment of large scale violence and dislocation to the north and east.
   
   Main losers
   With the exception of the tourism sector, the life and economy of people outside the north and east has been barely touched by the violence of the ethnic conflict. The tea plantations, garment factories, handicraft industries, farms and paddy fields, and the financial and service sectors are the mainstays of the domestic economy. They continue to work at full capacity. The ground reality is that the economy is able to post a healthy growth rate exceeding 7 percent.
   The developments in the military theatre of conflict, and the response to them by the combatant parties are also serving to take public attention away from the human tragedies in the war-affected parts of the country. Apart from the problems facing people in refugee camps, even those in towns in the north and east are subject to severe shortages of essential supplies. Supply by land and sea is blocked in some parts by the Tamil Tigers and in other parts by the government due to their military concerns.
   The acts of violence of the Tamil Tigers and its intransigence when it comes to peace talks, and to honouring peace agreements, has led to a situation where the government can justify its own actions as being directed against the LTTE threat. The immediate aftermath of the LTTE air attack using its micro light aircraft to bomb the Katunayake air force base saw the government sending its supersonic jet fight bombers to bomb LTTE held territory. Apart from the satisfaction of hitting back hard, it is not known who was hit hard, whether it was the LTTE or some poor innocent villagers.
   The main losers in the course of the ethnic conflict have been the people of the north and east, particularly the Tamil majority living in those areas. The current phase of the conflict has seen over 300,000 people being ruthlessly displaced from their homes due to military operations and clashes between the government and LTTE forces. In the Batticaloa district over 160,000 people have been displaced, which accounts for over one third of the population of that district. Many of those displaced in the current round of fighting have been displaced earlier as well, on multiple occasions, in previous phases of the conflict and in the tsunami of December 2004.
   The legal system is deeply cognisant, and is sensitive to the rights of people to live undisturbed in their traditional homes. The legal system in the country is strong enough to prevent the government from taking over land to build the expressway to the international airport. But together with other social institutions the legal system is helpless in the face of the gross violation of the property rights of people caught up in the fighting in the north and east. The result is that due to military strategies that seek to deprive guerillas of their base amongst people, citizens of Sri Lanka are driven repeatedly from their homes to live in squalor in refugee camps with no hope of progress in the future.
   
   Past experience
   However, the three decades long history of armed Tamil militancy in the country, and efforts to militarily suppress it, show that victories and defeats are ephemeral and illusory. The difficulty of returning people to their normal lives after catastrophe has been amply demonstrated by the past displacements of people by war and by tsunami. After the tsunami there was an unprecedented inflow of international aid to Sri Lanka for tsunami relief. Despite massive international and national efforts to restore normalcy to the lives of the victims of past catastrophes, the process of rebuilding people's lives has been difficult and slow.
   The conditions in the refugee camps are poor and there have been shortages reported of food, water, non-food relief items, and sanitation facilities. The current hostile environment for local and international NGOs and agencies providing humanitarian assistance places further impediments on their mobility and accessibility with regard to provision of humanitarian relief. The World Food Programme reported that food stocks are only sufficient for a few weeks and is calling for increased contributions from donors.
   Unfortunately, instead of seeking to find a solution to the conflict that is based on human values, the government has adopted a populist strategy of denial and turning its attention on the international human rights community. The government is claiming that an Amnesty International campaign against human rights violations in Sri Lanka is actually targeted against the Sri Lankan cricket team that is playing the World Cup competition. This governmental campaign seeks to rouse the patriotic and nationalist sentiments of the people who are unaffected by the horrors of the ongoing conflict.
   As the democratically elected representative of the people the government sees itself entitled to the deference of those who challenge its moral and ethical conduct. The LTTE claims to be the sole representative of the Tamil people on whose behalf it is fighting. Together these two parties are engaged in a vicious and destructive process that has brought misery to the lives of these people. On the other hand, international aid workers who have been working in the north and east, have commented that the displaced persons continue to retain their dignity and sense of humanity. This is testimony to the deep rooted cultural and religious traditions that continue to guide the people even when their leaders fail them.
   The government's preparation to celebrate Easter and the Sinhala and Tamil New year would be more appropriate and meaningful only if steps are taken to enable those who are displaced to live in safety and dignity. The coming Easter season and the Sinhala and Tamil New Year present a time for affirmation in both words and deeds that new life and new beginnings are possible. Before a mutually destructive war mentality firms its grip throughout the country, it is important that the government and LTTE declare a humanitarian ceasefire. A temporary truce during the new year period can provide a breathing space for the people in the north and east to be re-supplied and for a fresh perspective on conflict resolution to emerge.

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Jonaid Iqbal

This column published last week was favoured with appreciative feedback from Bangladesh citizens who thought the wounds between Bangladesh and Pakistan was beginning to be healed with the growing (?) realisation among Pakistanis about the past ill-treatment to former East Pakistan. Let us add that the realisation is not new but the remorse for continues to haunt our national psyche.
   For that of course both countries need to build trust between each other as well as in countries of the region. This reminder is now playing at the 14th SAARC summit now on at the heavily guarded Vigyan Bhaban (House of Sciences) at New Delhi.
   Indeed Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz made quite an engaging talk for building up trust in his the opening statement at the conference. He mentioned 'five milestones' that must be crossed for SAARC to become relevant to the people of the regional organisation that has until present remained "vitiated by disputes and mistrust".
   His speech was quite impressive about the need for building an environment or peace and security and for removing trust deficit that has prevented cooperation that must be substituted with an element of respect for sovereign equality of nation as well as sharing best practices to help each other. As for trade, Shaukat Aziz hinted it should be free and devoid of 'any barriers.'
   On the other hand the Indian prime minister Mr. Manmohan Singh in his speech spoke on containing the demon of terrorism. We all agree with the sentiment that were it not for the hidden meaning that it was hinted at what India continues to harp on jihadi inroads in the occupied Kashmir.
   However, India also made a good move by making an announcement that it would open its market for South Asian countries "without insisting on reciprocity."
   Subsequently, China, with high expectation for joining SAARC, has also promised to open free trade with Pakistan, to take China's and Pakistan's economic cooperation to new heights, foreign Minister Mahmud Kasuri put it.
   Here, let us express a fond wish that with the addition of Afghanistan, China and later Iran the complexion of SAARC organisation is bound to generate a thrust in removing mistrust in the region.
   
   50 journalists!
   In the context of building trust among the people of SAARC region let us say that perhaps the media personnel are qualified to do this job better than any other community, including diplomats whose main concern is always to deliver a well crafted speech.
   For this reason the media welcomes the decision of the Council for Foreign Ministers to allow 'select journalists' for visa-free travel in the region. Journalists are expected to receive SAARC stickers on their passports. However, according to announcement, only '50' journalists from each country would be short listed to enjoy this facility.
   This selectivity rankles. Why this measure should not be inclusive of all journalists as in the case of judges and parliamentarians. If this is left to the Home or Interior ministries of individual countries the SAARC sticker would become a carrot and only favoured ones would be extended the privilege.

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